ForexMorningTrade System

Gill W said:
Hi Andy. Are you trading with 38Sl/38TP setting? I feel more comfortable where potential risk is not greater than potential reward so I have been trying 38/38 as my setting for the past couple of weeks. Just wondering what your experience of this setting has been and also do you have a b/e setting? Cheers
Click to expand...

Hello Gill, I use set 38/38/27/5, I keep the results in a spreadsheet, I will upload this file today late or tomorrow. Regards.
 
andybissell said:
Yes I am using that setting...only because I got blocked from my broker's website at work and couldn't amend the trade if it went past 8am (I trade manually). It definitely makes sense when you link it to my previous comment to have a R:R >= 1. My experience with this setting is that I missed 1 day where it would have been a winner with the current official settings but I lost and I've took profit at 3 pips more and hit SL at 7 pips fewer than standard settings a few times...would need to check my spreadsheet to know exactly how many...so I would probably have a slightly bigger balance atm if I had kept to the standard settings but I believe this will turn in the long run (despite backtesting results - which have little validity IMO) and standard isn't an option for me anymore anyway.

Hope this helps
Click to expand...

If you want to access your MT4 platform (installed on your PC at home/or installed on a VPS) remotely you could download certain software to your Blackberry/Droid device and accomplish it. I paid around 15 USD (one time) to install this software on my HTC EVO and i can access my MT4 that's currently on a VPS Server from my cellphone!! So you don't have to worry about whether your employer blocks the broker's website or not..
 
FMT for me this morning:

6:15 start, short signal, hit SL -45 pips (45-35-25-5)
6:30 start, short signal, hit SL -45 pips (45-35-25-5)
6:45 start, short signal, hit SL -35 pips (35-25-15-0)
7:15 start, No Trade (35-25-15-0)

total today -125 pips...

I might consider skipping Mondays ?
 
hammy66 said:
FMT for me this morning:

6:15 start, short signal, hit SL -45 pips (45-35-25-5)
6:30 start, short signal, hit SL -45 pips (45-35-25-5)
6:45 start, short signal, hit SL -35 pips (35-25-15-0)
7:15 start, No Trade (35-25-15-0)

total today -125 pips...

I might consider skipping Mondays ?
Click to expand...

Or run with reduced risk on Monday?
 
I am using (close to) two of the better sets from Desert Eagle's tabulation. 38/38/25/12 at 6:15 and 65/43/20/0 at 6:30. My spreadsheet shows Monday not worth the risk and Wednesday a clear loser.

Trading 3 days, Tues/Thurs/Fri with equal risk at 6:15 and 6:30, there are no losing weeks in 2011. However, summing the two times, average pips/week has gone from around 125-150 though March, then around 50 through mid May, now around 25 pips each week.

Last night did kick Monday negative with the total since mid January, now down 111 pips. This 3 day system does not trade Monday, but I graph all 5 days to track watch for changes

There may be better combinations of sets and days, for example, picking the best set for each day, but the harder you look at historical results the more risk of over optimizing, this seems to work.

donm
 
andybissell said:
Yes I am using that setting...only because I got blocked from my broker's website at work and couldn't amend the trade if it went past 8am (I trade manually). It definitely makes sense when you link it to my previous comment to have a R:R >= 1. My experience with this setting is that I missed 1 day where it would have been a winner with the current official settings but I lost and I've took profit at 3 pips more and hit SL at 7 pips fewer than standard settings a few times...would need to check my spreadsheet to know exactly how many...so I would probably have a slightly bigger balance atm if I had kept to the standard settings but I believe this will turn in the long run (despite backtesting results - which have little validity IMO) and standard isn't an option for me anymore anyway.

Hope this helps
Click to expand...

Thanks, Andy. That's helpful. Yes, it's definitely the risk reward ratio that's an important criterion for me. Dessert Eagle has also responded to my query and he will be reporting his results with the 38/38 setting, which is really helpful too.
 
donm said:
I am using (close to) two of the better sets from Desert Eagle's tabulation. 38/38/25/12 at 6:15 and 65/43/20/0 at 6:30. My spreadsheet shows Monday not worth the risk and Wednesday a clear loser.

Trading 3 days, Tues/Thurs/Fri with equal risk at 6:15 and 6:30, there are no losing weeks in 2011. However, summing the two times, average pips/week has gone from around 125-150 though March, then around 50 through mid May, now around 25 pips each week.

Last night did kick Monday negative with the total since mid January, now down 111 pips. This 3 day system does not trade Monday, but I graph all 5 days to track watch for changes

There may be better combinations of sets and days, for example, picking the best set for each day, but the harder you look at historical results the more risk of over optimizing, this seems to work.

donm
Click to expand...


Thanks Donm, a very helpful post. You also correctly point out the problem of over-optimisation. The concern is, with my luck, the minute I start trading the "3 day" system, it will tank and the other two days will suddenly become the most profitable. Just as happened to me when I bought FMT in the immediate aftermate of the glorious Feb and March returns - story of my (trading) life!
 
andybissell said:
No, it won't necessarily 'just as easily turn into a profit' as the indicators would be implying the trade is heading for a loss. I was wondering about stats once the indicators have crossed the line. Lets say FMT had 70% winners, 30% losers (ignore BE for now)....of those winners, I would predict that for most of them the indicators stayed the correct side of the line for the whole trade. It would therefore be beneficial to exit trades when the indicators switch as the signal is no longer there! It's definitely worth some research as I have no stats to back up the theory but it makes sense if you think it through.
Click to expand...

You can do this in TMT. But I think you will get stopped out quite often.
 
More figures to prove that the current FMT recommendations are better
Data up to 13 June, LCF and ADR filters not observed.
06:15 UK time starts. 2 pip spread.

Last 10 trades
FMT1 -80
FMT2 -5
FMT3 Plus 50

Last 25
FMT1 -360
FMT2 -295
FMT3 -125
 
Good Morning,

I have attached my spreadsheet updated.
We are going long.

Cheers
 

Attachments

  • FMT.xlsx
    219.5 KB · Views: 294
Long - hope we've not just timed it right for a pull-back as the PSAR has just gone negative, an indicator that looking at my charts would be reliable to follow than many of the next 'best EA/system you've ever seen' claims - anyone know how to write an EA on MT4 for this trend changing signal? It would be great if it could be backtested - I'm afraid my technical nounce amounts to scrolling back manually! - any thoughts welcome
 
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