I checked out Pouria on the FF website. It seems to be interesting - however, their thread has been dead/inactive for ages.
I checked out Pouria on the FF website. It seems to be interesting - however, their thread has been dead/inactive for ages.
Jashfx
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I honestly think therein lies the problem for many. I do not believe that FMT should be traded on the same account as other systems you may be using to make those hard earned pips. FMT has good months and bad months and one will only get a feel for its return if its the only system traded on an account for and extended period of time.
Everyone has their own opinions but this is my advice to newbies and those trying to trade this in conjunction with other systems.
1) Do Not trade any other strategy with FMT on the same account
2) Decide on an amount you are prepared to lose with FMT
3) Open an account that is double what you are prepared to lose.
4) Trade 3-5% risk per trade.
5) 10 net losses or thereabouts (30% drawdown - 50% drawdown depending on your risk per trade) and call it quits.
6) Trade for 1 year at least before deciding whether it works or not. Ofcourse if NO.5 happens before then, then stop trading the system.
7) FMT cannot be judged on a daily or weekly basis. Its has to be judged over a period of time.
8) Follow the rules and trade it without emotion becasue the months that are good are really good and those that are not -- is not nearly as bad as months that are good (except for maybe December).
Since Starting with FMT
Sept 2010 + 12.7% return (trading at 2% risk)
Oct 2010 +10.75% return (trading at 2% risk)
Nov 2010 + 3.23% return (trading at 2% risk)
Dec 2010 + 1% return (trading at 2% risk until 17.12.2010)
Jan 2011 - 4.6 % return (trading at 3% risk per trade)
Feb 2011 +21.9% return (trading at 3 % risk)
Mar 2011 +19.9% retrun (trading at 3% risk)
Apr 2011 -6% return (trading at 3% risk)
May 2011 B/E (cause i traded day of long candle filter)
All trades taken with recommended settings and changed as FMT changed.
Broker used Alpari UK
Days I did not trade which may skew results for others were:
last 2 weeks of December (next year will include first week of Jan as well)
All Pulic Holidays (UK and USA)
April -- FMT was correct 90% of the time. The only problem was that over this period there just was not enough gas to take it to 35 pips. A pity cause it could of actually also been a very good month with about 7 or 8 trades going 30 but not 35 pips. 6:15 start time would have seen a +ve return with new FMT/Hammy settings
Be disciplined -- trade when there is a signal (except for days you choose as i have above), on an account only for FMT, with money you ARE PREPARED TO LOSE and come back in 1 year and then decide if it works or not.
For those of you who started trading this system after March, I do understand your frustration but Im sure there are many more good months to come.
shoot2scoot
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Agreed! I think I said that some of my strategies don't stand up to backtesting as they stand. Hense the death of the threads but by incorporating other indicators to fine tune which trades I take and when to get out I can find great value from them.
I have the luxury of being full time and can watch trades closely. My style of trading is not right for everyone i accept that.
My main piece of advice is try not to put yourself totally in any one strategy's hands. Use all your knowledge to guage the merrit of each trade. I love FMT and really hope it continues to perform but I would never be a slave to it. Chris
shoot2scoot
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Hi, really welcome your ideas but would prefer some evidence for your thoughts so that we can judge their impact? Especially as they are unrelated to this thread? Thanks. Chris
Thanks for this post, its reassuring. I started in april.. so feeling the frustration big time!
I am however running other strategies and also trying to hone my own manual system on a demo account. One day I will be free of all EA's !
shoot2scoot
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Ken, I see the supporting trendline now, thanks for that. Thankfully I made a few pips and got out as no real breakout took place. This is building into quite a pressure cooker! I wonder if the US market open will blow the lid? Chris
Slurpeeforex
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Fast FMT: +10
FMT: +35
EFMT: +38
Total: Fast FMT -60, FMT -35, EFMT -31
FMT: +35
EFMT: +38
Total: Fast FMT -60, FMT -35, EFMT -31
andybissell
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I wish people wouldn't claim this as an FMT victory, it was the news that did it, not the indicators, as I pointed out a few weeks ago when a similar thing happened. The trade was at a loss until the 70 pip candle.
shoot2scoot
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Andy, whilst I agree that the Moody candle took a lot of pressure off the trade, I don't see the evidence that FMT would have lost without it? The trade was in profit by a few pips during four candles out of the eight before the Moody candle? We have been in far more dire positions and come through to win before?
As FMT statistics rely on adherance to rules we can't discount lucky wins in the same way we don't discount unlucky losses. I do however agree that we are not out of the woods yet, but on a Wicked Wednesday I will take a win of any sort!
Jashfx
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OH Andy, why are you always so negative and why do you always credit news and not the system?
Do yourself a favour and
1)Draw 3 trendlines, one from yesterday high, another from the high just below that, and another from the high just below that.
2) Now draw another trendline from yesterday low.
Its quite obvious that the uptrend was broken but at no stage were any of the other trendlines broken. After all FMT is suppose to pick a bias of a trend leading from asian session into London session and it did just that.
Now draw a fib from the low of 04:00am candle to top of 05:45 candle and you will notice the 261.8 extension of the fib to the top. And that is exactly where price turned, together with a bounce off two of the above trendlines and continued south in the direction of trend created from yesterday already.
At one stage there were conflicting signals from other indicators (which did have me a bit nervous) but it just goes to show that sometimes some indicators are right and other times they are not.
Obviously news effects the markets but FMT did not win today because of news, FMT won today because it predicted the bias in the trend. The one thing news did was accelerate price to our target. But the bias of the trend never changed, and the recommended settings of 45/35/25/5 kept us safe.
andybissell
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I'm negative because my account was down 23% until today, where it is still down 13.5%!
Nobody can say where the trade would have gone no matter how much analysis you do and I wasn't offering a proof that it would have lost either....all I'm saying is the majority of the trade pre-miracle candle was at a loss and so you can't put the win down to FMT.
Nobody can say where the trade would have gone no matter how much analysis you do and I wasn't offering a proof that it would have lost either....all I'm saying is the majority of the trade pre-miracle candle was at a loss and so you can't put the win down to FMT.
Good gamble btw Andy on you 12% risk for todays trade.. well timed :cheesy:
looking at the chart the cables been ranging all day long, so without the moody news theres a good probability we'd all still be in the trade!
whatever. good news, bad news its all part of the stats. Wish i could come back in August and see what FMT has done to my account but until then I guess those of us who started FMT post march will be monitoring and critiquing v. closely.
Appreciate the words of wisdom tho from older members who are still in here, it helps a lot. cheers fellas keep it up.
Jashfx
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So what if the majority of the trade was in Negative. All it was doing was retracing. Did I know for sure that it was going to be a winner. Ofcourse not but I did predict price to turn at that exact price (give or take a few pips) and I even shared my thoughts with a few others about an hour before it did. Anyway, thats not the point. The point is that all the trade was doing was retracing and stayed well within the trend as we can quite clearly see. FMT trades a bias of a trend and if that trend stays intact then we hit TP.
Anyway -- IMHO -- your risk per trade is too high. You are gambling with your money and not trading.
andybissell
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today was my do or die. I would have quit FMT had I lost today so I upped the risk. I started out risking 4% but with settings changes and losses (and since I am at the spread betting min £per pip) I am now risking slightly more, close to 5%. My aim was to keep the same £per pip until the risk was down to 3% and then keep this risk level (increase my stake) but that would require me to be in profit
We will see what happens and hopefully I will eat my words but for now I am v.disappointed with FMT and don't expect to see a change.
I am relatively new but trying to learn fast and your explanation in context of FMT is tremendous. If this is the level of what I need to be learning then I have a way to go.
To help understand better what appears crystal for yourself, do you have this in a marked up chart? A picture for me helps me see much quicker what is being said.
Any help would be appreciated
News or no news, we have to admit there is something magical about this time of day to where 70% of the time, the market will take a push in the same direction the system indicates by 20-50 pips before going off on it's own direction it pleases. I won't blame today's trade on "news" (although it could have been). I don't blame the market on any one thing, it just happens to work this way. Today was just another part of the 70% winners.
Hello, I am a newbie. I have just finished the manual and I was wondering if anyone can advise me .Mark says in the new procedures to start trade at 6:15. I want to know, does that mean during the candle just before the blue bar indicator. Also, withn respect to the break even method, he has recommended a setting of twenty as the cue to reset the s/l. I was wondering why you cannot make it even closer to the p/t. Is there a rule about this. Sorry for my lack of correct terminology. If you understand the questions please respond, Thanks, Motneen
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Hi there
Current recommended setting is 35TP 45SL 25BE 5ADD...your trade should trigger automatically on the first candle in the blue zone
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