ForexMorningTrade System

[msp1982dk]

So, upon these calcualtions, is it possible to suggest that not trading on Wednesdays could produce a greater profit? If this is true then we could add another "don`t " to the list.
1. Dont trade on bank holidays, U.S or UK
2. Don't trade last two weeks of December
3. Don't trade first two weeks of January
4. Don't trade on Wednesdays
Did I miss anything...Could be on to something.:idea:

This reminds me of Mike Caro's roulette system...

 

[uberpips]

Hi, it was discussed days ago about which day of the week is more profitable than other, here I do a small analysis about Wednesday and Thursday.

Data based on set Desert 615 (38/38/27/5) in 2011.

Trading days on Wednesday: 15 - Win rate (including BE): 46.64%
Trading days on Thursday: 14 - Win rate (including BE): 100%

Pips per day:

Mon: 53 pips
Tue: 200 pips
Wed: -137 pips
Thu: 433 pips
Fri: 172 pips

Total: 721 pips

This total means a profit of 37,95% if we were risking 2% per trade.
In case we were not trading on Wednesday, the profit goes to 45.16%.
Finally, if we double the lot on Thursday without trading on Wednesday, the profit reachs 67.95%!

Cheers

And 1:1 risk/reward ratio. I like it!

 

[Remraf]

Just a thought, my understanding is that FMT start time is taking its lead from the Asian market activity, which on current form London/Europe don't seem to be being influenced by, thus leading us astray, on somedays in completely the opposite direction! Now, as I remember, there was a discussion on how London/Europe was the largest/most influential region when trading FX, which prompts me to ask the question why would we expect London/Europe to take the lead from Asia in its direction? I would have thought a more rational belief might be that NY opening time is likely to be more influential in market direction, either by supporting London/Europe's direction or influencing a change based on North American sentiment for the day, as by then the two largest markets are both in full swing. Although I have only had a cursory look at activity after NY opening times,it looks pretty good when looking at the FMT indicators, so although I think it's been mentioned on here before, has any of the expert backtesters we have here tested the time 15 and 30 mins before/after the 1pm NY open time? or can they test it and post some results/thoughts? I'm happy to be shot down if I'm 'barking up the wrong tree!' (English expression!), but thought it might be a useful discussion in these times of turmoil with FMT, although I intend to continue with FMT standard settings and wait for the turn in fortune.

 

[coral]

Thanks for the idea Remraf. What do you consider to be the NY Open time? (I've heard different definitions and I just want to nail it down in my simple mind for this purpose). Then I will test it tomorrow.http://www.forexmarkethours.com/

 

[Remraf]

Thanks for the idea Remraf. What do you consider to be the NY Open time? (I've heard different definitions and I just want to nail it down in my simple mind for this purpose). Then I will test it tomorrow.http://www.forexmarkethours.com/

Hi coral, I believe it is 1pm London time (we are currently BST which is GMT+1 so current time in the UK is 10.30pm), but you can check it here from where you are and make the adjustment with your broker data timings:

http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/index.cgi?timezone=Europe/London&refresh=5

 

[uberpips]

Just a thought, my understanding is that FMT start time is taking its lead from the Asian market activity, which on current form London/Europe don't seem to be being influenced by, thus leading us astray, on somedays in completely the opposite direction! Now, as I remember, there was a discussion on how London/Europe was the largest/most influential region when trading FX, which prompts me to ask the question why would we expect London/Europe to take the lead from Asia in its direction? I would have thought a more rational belief might be that NY opening time is likely to be more influential in market direction, either by supporting London/Europe's direction or influencing a change based on North American sentiment for the day, as by then the two largest markets are both in full swing. Although I have only had a cursory look at activity after NY opening times,it looks pretty good when looking at the FMT indicators, so although I think it's been mentioned on here before, has any of the expert backtesters we have here tested the time 15 and 30 mins before/after the 1pm NY open time? or can they test it and post some results/thoughts? I'm happy to be shot down if I'm 'barking up the wrong tree!' (English expression!), but thought it might be a useful discussion in these times of turmoil with FMT, although I intend to continue with FMT standard settings and wait for the turn in fortune.

I just tried 6:45, 7:00 and 7:15 EST. All negatives with my questionable data and a 4 pip spread.

 

[coral]

I will do a first cut with 08:15 & 08:30 NY Time separately. But again, my data are in GMT, so I have to split the tests because of seasonal time changes. And of course this brings major economic reports into play, which are mostly at 08:30 NY time.
The fun never stops.

 

[coral]

For the record, US time changes for 2010 were 14 March to EDT (summer time) and 7 Nov back to EST (winter time).

In 2011, EDT (summer time) started on 13 March.

My reference: http://www.timeanddate.com/

So I have to adjust my trading times in the tests on those dates. Tests will span 07:00 to 08:30 NY time on each 15 min increment.

 

[coral]

Therefore, 08:00 NY Time on my GMT data will be 13:00 in winter and 12:00 in the summer. Recent examples showing the Friday NFP reports.

 

[coral]

I tested during EDT (summer time) NY time 2010 March through November.

Method: FMT 4.3 EA set at current defaults 45-35-25-5.

I tested starting at 06:00 NY time through 8:30.

Four pics attached show results for 06:00, 06:15, 06:30 and 06:45 respectively starting top left.

More to follow.

 

[coral]

....And 7:00 to 7:45

 

[coral]

And finally 08:00 to 08:30 NY.

I wouldn't say you were barking up the wrong tree Remraf, but I think we caught the dogs LOL.

I will keep poking around to see if there's anything else for NY.

 

[bearstar7]

Looking Long or is this to border line to enter ???

 

[shoot2scoot]

6.15 No Trade Alpari UK

 

[podberry]

No Trade Oanda - May go in at 06H30

 

[1KP]

FXOpen 06:15 No Trade

 

[Euro_d]

Ah well, no trade!

My view re US open is much the same as with trying other pairs, the system is not optimized to do that.
Further, as one correctly pointed out, we are into the dangers of news trading. A very tricky play!

IMHO, we should stick with FMT, if one is concerned, reduce risk and keep money management "on".
Even that has some disadvantages: when to go back to "acceptable" risk? Also, obviously, it takes longer to recoup the losses!

Oh well, back to the day job,

 

[michaelsa]

Morning All,

No Trade FXDD Live EA.

M

 

[podberry]

Short Oanda 06:30 :clover:

 

[andybissell]

No trade at 615, Short at 630