ForexMorningTrade System

[tkbieber]

I am from Canada, and I like to make wild assumptions, but what do you guys from Europe think about this theory? I believe the UK bankers make up a small percentage of the total trading of the pound worldwide. The US is by far the largest economy in the world and I am sure US bankers have their automated systems in full swing by 3am ET (8am UK time), and the rest of Europe is huge compared to the UK. So altogether, I think that the US and Europe trading of the pound far outweighs the trading of the pound by UK bankers. Conclusion: If UK bankers take a holiday, when the rest of the world does not - it should have minimal impact on pound movement. Just some wild speculation on my part, but I would like to hear your thoughts. Cheers.

I tend to agree. The market is much bigger then many realize.

 

[Jashfx]

Result from the last just 4 trades since recommendations were revised:
40/40 zero
10/40 -10
28/40 -24
35/40/BE -45
35/45/BE,plus pips etc errr -50
You have to judge these things in longer term measurement, which is why I am trying to build up an accurate database.
eg. 40/40 since 1/1/2010 is plus 2360 ! ! ! ! !

Hey Wise and those of you (like myself) who follow Wise's findings with interest:
Comparing any of the (SL 40) strategies with each other can be made by just evaluating number of pips Gained/Loss.
However, the new (SL 45) throws a spanner in the work (assuming %risk per trade is equal).
One would need to convert to a ratio or something to get a truer reflection of growth / loss. In above examples:
35/40/BE -45 converted to a ratio (-45/40) = -1.25 (put another way 1.25 pips lost per pip risked)
35/45/BE+5 -50 ---- converted to ratio (-50/45) = -1.11. (1.11 pips lost per pip risked)

Therefore we have actually lost more trading with the 35/40/BE strategy than the other even though we have lost less pips.

What this means to us who have changed strategies to the new Std FMT (Hammy) settings is that our pips gained needs to be quite a bit higher than the old settings.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me this morning, (45-35-25-5), Forex.Com-UK

6:15 start, short signal, hit SL -46 pips
6:30 start, short signal, hit SL -46 pips
6:45 start, short signal, hit SL -24 pips (half lots)

total today -114 pips..

weekly total -109 pips

these days will happen ..

 

[reebed]

Hi all,

10/40 - Does anybody have an excel spreadsheet with all the trades taken for the past six months (or longer) please? Thank you

 

[wiseambitions]

Hi all,

10/40 - Does anybody have an excel spreadsheet with all the trades taken for the past six months (or longer) please? Thank you

see the list of trades Long or Short which I've observed attached.

 

[wiseambitions]

results for 10 40 need superimposing on previous spreadsheet - my previous msg

 

[reebed]

Thank you wise!

 

[jore]

Here are some stats regarding FMT.

I made a back test with standard settings 40/40/20 time 07:30 , from Jan.01.2007 to Apr.22.2011, quotes from alpari UK, spread at back test 1.5 pips. Then I run a Monte Carlo simulation as described in the books from van Tharp.
Here are the results:

If you use 2% risk
the average annual return is 74.6% and the average DrawDown is -12.6%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 14.8% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DrawDown will not exceed -25.6%

If you look for a 100% annual return you have
to risk 2.5%, the average DD is then -17.5%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 18.1% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DD will not exceed -35.1% (max DD in 10000 Simulations was -45%)

I have read from a guy who use fmt at 30% risk, there is no chance for survive.

So don't be greedy.

green pips for all
jore

 

[Tenapenny]

"I have read from a gay who use fmt at 30% risk, there is no chance for survive."

Risky strategy! But who cares about sexual orientation these days? The markets certainly don't.

 

[uberpips]

"I have read from a gay who use fmt at 30% risk, there is no chance for survive."

Risky strategy! But who cares about sexual orientation these days? The markets certainly don't.

Would that make the conservative ones the nuns and the greedy ones the gigolos?

 

[3PO]

Here are some stats regarding FMT.

I made a back test with standard settings 40/40/20 time 07:30 , from Jan.01.2007 to Apr.22.2011, quotes from alpari UK, spread at back test 1.5 pips. Then I run a Monte Carlo simulation as described in the books from van Tharp.
Here are the results:

If you use 2% risk
the average annual return is 74.6% and the average DrawDown is -12.6%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 14.8% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DrawDown will not exceed -25.6%

If you look for a 100% annual return you have
to risk 2.5%, the average DD is then -17.5%
but
in 90% of all cases you will earn at least 18.1% p.a. and
in 90% of all cases your DD will not exceed -35.1% (max DD in 10000 Simulations was -45%)

I have read from a gay who use fmt at 30% risk, there is no chance for survive.

So don't be greedy.

green pips for all
jore

Thank you very much for your effort!Could you make your test with the new recommended settings too?
3PO

 

[jore]

sorry for the typo, but who knows?

 

[tkbieber]

Does anyone know of a broker that the GBPUSD has a fixed or close to 2 pip spread or less?
I use Hotforex and that's the best I've found with variable spreads but usually when FMT trades, it's around 2.5 - 2.8 pip spread.

 

[uberpips]

Does anyone know of a broker that the GBPUSD has a fixed or close to 2 pip spread or less?
I use Hotforex and that's the best I've found with variable spreads but usually when FMT trades, it's around 2.5 - 2.8 pip spread.

Alpari UK can go below 1 pip at times. Too bad it is illegal for me to use them!

 

[wiseambitions]

Does anyone know of a broker that the GBPUSD has a fixed or close to 2 pip spread or less?
I use Hotforex and that's the best I've found with variable spreads but usually when FMT trades, it's around 2.5 - 2.8 pip spread.

cityindex is fixed always at 2 pips on Cable, day and night, but not compatible with Metatrader. You can still of course enter your trades manually

Presumably these people only let Brits have an account, but it's worth your while asking them

cityindex.co.uk

 

[Jashfx]

Alpari UK can go below 1 pip at times. Too bad it is illegal for me to use them!

Not during FMT time it wont!!!!

 

[jore]

@ 3Po
I will do it tomorrow.

BTW, there is no indication that the last 50 trades are statistically abnormal. I use Kolmogorov-Smirnov-tests to give me a hint when its time to leave a system.
Up to now there is all OK with FMT and old settings, verry robust and stable.

So I'll check the new settings tomorrow

jore

 

[andycon]

Hi, I have just purchased the system. Please can I confirm the correct settings for the EA, I am based in UK using Smart Live Markets. I have 07.15 (SML 1 Hr ahead), stop 45, Take Profit 35, Stop to BE at 20, lots 0.1, Money management true, lots decimal 2, risk percentage 2, maximum lots 0.5,
Thanks

 

[tkbieber]

cityindex is fixed always at 2 pips on Cable, day and night, but not compatible with Metatrader. You can still of course enter your trades manually

Presumably these people only let Brits have an account, but it's worth your while asking them

cityindex.co.uk

I'm sleeping during trade time so I need MT4 and USA compatible. So far it's Hotforex for me.

 

[trader578]

Size of the economy is irrelevant in the financial transactions market. London is the worlds largest player in the currency markets and by quite a margin. Check out these links. http://www.trainingtraders.com/pres...g-performance-london-is-the-cash-capital.html and http://www.thinklondon.com/media_ce.../Sep/London_increases_forex_market_share.html

Thanks for the comments Podberry and Tkbieber. And thanks for the links Tenapenny. Very interesting stuff. As the world becomes more global and more computerized, I wonder if our traditional boundaries of what constitutes a city like London still hold true in cyberspace? However, I suppose this is open to debate.