ForexMorningTrade System

[JohnnyBme]

There was an 8 pip range with SLM on the 6-15 candle and 9 pips with FXPro.
Alpari are playing games again, I would never open an account with them!

I had that 20pip move on the 6:30 candle with Alpari-US, maybe that's what he means.

 

[Tenapenny]

Out of this trade at breakeven.

News in 25 minutes this trade is now a bet on the news. The news might be but I have decided to keep out of major news events, been burnt too many times.

Morning all. Market does seem a bit too reluctant before the news but I'm still in win or lose.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 01-31-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, No Trade, 0.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 13 No Trades, 16 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 14 Profits, Total: -211.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, No Trade, 0.0 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 6 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 5 Loss, 3 Profits, Total: -106.4 pips



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 4:No Trade, 1:Long/Loss
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.58780, 1.58380, -40.0
FXCM, 0.0
Alpari(US), 0.0
FXDD, 0.0



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:
FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,

6:15 start, buy trade, 1.58772, 1.58370, hit TP= -40.2 pips ... :-(
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +2.6 pips

 

[wiseambitions]

wow. ordered 28TP, slippage gave me +34 on news
Good luck to all

 

[joke]

32 pips..FXDD..EA...live...yes!!!

 

[Jashfx]

wow. ordered 28TP, slippage gave me +34 on news
Good luck to all

Nice one!!! Better than being slipped the other way as I was a week or so ago.

+35 -- Alpari UK

 

[PipZombie]

+35 on Forex.com and IBFX live accounts

 

[Deatil]

Out of this trade at breakeven.

News in 25 minutes this trade is now a bet on the news. The news might be but I have decided to keep out of major news events, been burnt too many times.

You made the correct and logical move. While the move was good for the UK, no one ever knows the out come of any news event, and this win was just a gamble for those who stayed in the trade. And yes a move based totally on the PMI Manufacturing hitting the highest level since the survey began all the way back to 1992 .

But fear not when the back testing is done , the news factor will again be over looked as is has in the past.Credit to FMT NO!

 

[trishpage3]

Nice job Deatil - logical and clear!
So the question may be...is an "EA", especially a breakout EA, ever the right approach?

When I trade - I watch the vast array of candle behaviors that define "price action" first and use several indicators to help me decide on my entries & exits (that is, in addition to my experimentation, albeit lesser, with EAs as this one). My brain is processing a variety of key factors in a more more complex manner than can ever be accomplished by an EA. Yes, my problem has been my emotions at times, which cause me to exit too soon or enter when I should not have entered - an EA supposedly helps us beat this problem. That is why an EA with both great backtests over extended periods of time - as well as valid "forward tests / actual use - that make a case, seem appealing. FMT originally had appeal for what I thought were these reasons.

But I vacillate - my family members who are professional traders (I have 2), do not use EAs - they watch the charts and decide. And they have better control of their emotions than I - hence their great income - one earns approx. $50K US per week from his home office.

So what do you think? Is any EA worth our time? If so, and if this one may have some value, are there any tweaks you believe may help? If not, what do you recommend?

Your thoughts are most welcome.

Hi, could you please give some insight as to what methods your family members use to determine entries and exits? Also what times of day (GMT) do they trade?

Many thanks

 

[Tenapenny]

You made the correct and logical move. While the move was good for the UK, no one ever knows the out come of any news event, and this win was just a gamble for those who stayed in the trade. And yes a move based totally on the PMI Manufacturing hitting the highest level since the survey began all the way back to 1992 .

But fear not when the back testing is done , the news factor will again be over looked as is has in the past.Credit to FMT NO!

If people want to manage the trade according to what might or might not happen when economic data is released then it is up to them. FMT was set up as a set and forget system whether or not you trade it manually or with the EA. For me, that means it is a long term system an I'm quite happy to let it do it's thing even if I adjust the parameters to suit myself. +43 today.

 

[Gromit]

Stuck to the rules and it was a win. But like someone above said it really seems to be a gamble these days so I am not so comfortable with the system as I used to be.

 

[Cobber]

You made the correct and logical move. While the move was good for the UK, no one ever knows the out come of any news event, and this win was just a gamble for those who stayed in the trade. And yes a move based totally on the PMI Manufacturing hitting the highest level since the survey began all the way back to 1992 .

But fear not when the back testing is done , the news factor will again be over looked as is has in the past.Credit to FMT NO!

Yep so the coin was tossed and came up trumps. I agree it has nothing to do with FMT which is based on a breakout before London open not trading news.

Does this system have an edge? I am not sure if it does? I lt is almost a toss of a coin but relies on it's risk/return of 1-1 with only a very marginal number of wins greater than losses providing a return.

That's why those people who have made their risk return even worse by moving their tp or SL are trading a system that will not make money over the long term.

 

[wiseambitions]

If people want to manage the trade according to what might or might not happen when economic data is released then it is up to them. FMT was set up as a set and forget system whether or not you trade it manually or with the EA. For me, that means it is a long term system an I'm quite happy to let it do it's thing even if I adjust the parameters to suit myself. +43 today.

I agree. FMT works for me because I haven't got time to manage the trade every day.
In fact I would query why people who apply their own experience and judgement on a minute by minute basis including even deciding whether to enter a trade are suited to the system. I honestly don't think it's made for them

Gain from last 100 possible trades

1) at 28TP/40 SL + 692

2) at 40/40 +480

These results are in spite of Christmas and Martin Luther King and Thanksgiving and News and every other bad influence on the market.

 

[PipZombie]

You made the correct and logical move. While the move was good for the UK, no one ever knows the out come of any news event, and this win was just a gamble for those who stayed in the trade. And yes a move based totally on the PMI Manufacturing hitting the highest level since the survey began all the way back to 1992 .

But fear not when the back testing is done , the news factor will again be over looked as is has in the past.Credit to FMT NO!

I agree with today being on the right side of the news. My position with FMT is that it is just a bias...if the coin is heavier on one side it will mostly likely land more times on the heavier side. So good with the bad, news or no news, in the long run it should be profitable. The only way to trade through this thought is a small risk per trade. So for those who want this to compound their account with high leverage are at a risk of the system drawdown. I think we all have been focused on trying to make it better to mitigage the potential for drawdown and I don't think it is a bad thing. The problem with that is that we will ALWAYS be tweeking the system. I liked FMT more when it was a win or lose +40 or -40. That way the bias along with the coin flip paid out in the long run. Changing the settings was an attempt to increase the win rate thus allowing those to use higher leverage. My biq question for Mark and the forum what Is the goal. 1) leave FMT alone in its current format or to continue to tweek it into being a blackbox EA. I myself are for #1.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, BE, 0 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP +35 pips

total today +40 pips....

 

[deserteagle]

If people want to manage the trade according to what might or might not happen when economic data is released then it is up to them. FMT was set up as a set and forget system whether or not you trade it manually or with the EA. For me, that means it is a long term system an I'm quite happy to let it do it's thing even if I adjust the parameters to suit myself. +43 today.

I Agree too, the good thing in Forex is there a lot of ways to trade it, maybe one different per each trader
So, there are people that check every trade and adjust his manual way based on that.
That is not my case, I just do a backtest to see where the coin is heavier, then test on demo during some time, and use it on real after that. The time others use for checking if the win/loss was about news or whatever I use it to check other eas.
For me FMT is perfect to let it run alone and check the result weekly.

Each system is valid if it fulfills the trader expectation. Today +43 too

 

[billcurry]

Long trade
First TP hit at +35 pips (75% of position)
Second TP hit at +46 pips (25% of position)
Total growth of account: +13.8%

 

[JDJD88]

You ask an important set of questions - but the answers are not readily available.
They (my family members) trade a variety of entities (energy, oil, the weather - yes the weather, and more). They have each made millions - as professional traders and now, self-employed – one, trading his own account.
What they do and how they do it is the product of years of training and development - no single method or cook-book - therefore I couldn't possibly give you an answer. They have never shared with me either!

One of my family members only gave me one bit of advice – he said read “Trading for A Living” by Alexander Elder. I will pass that on to you.

Learning to trade by really trading - that is reading the price action and not simply depending upon an apparently "idiot-proof" EA / automated system, is the way to go, both short and long term. I simply play with EA’s out of curiosity (and maybe with the possibility that one or two may work – as I have developed my own) – and yes – I can always learn something as well.

I trade for a living, full time, for my own account. I have lost and made thousands. I began by reading no less than 50 text books, taking several courses / classes and reading hundreds of articles. I continue to read. More importantly though, I have spent thousands of hours in screen time.

Please know - I am no expert, not a professional trader, am still challenged in many ways and still growing. There are many many others out there far more capable than I to give useful opinions.

So – do that – read read read (CREDIBLE sources) – and learn to understand price action, then indicators, then relationships with supply and demand. (the Traders library is a good source of reading material - http://www.traderslibrary.com/)

That’s all I can offer. It takes a heck of a lot more than a few EAs (expert advisers / automatic trading programs) and luck - I learned that the hard way.

Hi, could you please give some insight as to what methods your family members use to determine entries and exits? Also what times of day (GMT) do they trade?

Many thanks

 

[trader578]

I remember the good old days back in Sept and Oct when FMT was first released. It seems we always got out with a nice profit before the news at 9:30 GMT was ever released. Hopefully those days will be coming back soon since we are done with the two worst months of the year for FMT - Dec and Jan.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 02-01-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Long/Profit, 1.6066, 1.6101, +35.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 13 No Trades, 16 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 15 Profits, Total: -176.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Long/Profit, 1.60657, 1.61011, +35.4 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 6 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 5 Loss, 4 Profits, Total: -71.0 pips



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:Long/Profit
PFG Best, 1.60663, 1.61017, +35.4
FOREX.com, 1.60668, 1.61022, +35.4
FXCM, 1.60656, 1.60965, +30.90
Alpari(US), 1.60659, 1.61019, +36.0
FXDD, 1.60654, 1.61007, +35.3



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,
6:15 start, buy trade, 1.60693, 1.61003, hit TP= +31.0 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +33.6 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,
15:15 start, buy trade, 1.61133, 1.61435, hit TP= +30.2 pips ...
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +30.2 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,
15:15 start, buy trade, 1.37599, 1.37870, hit TP= +32.1 pips ...
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +32.1 pips




I don’t believe any trader who says he’s successful. Show me the proof. There is so much ego attached to manual trading, it’s a joke. That’s one of the reasons I do automated trading, no ego, no emotions, and the numbers don’t lie. The EA robot gets all the credit. Well, you do get some credit for keeping your hands off, and doing your research homework.

Back testing and tweaking are important because you’re exploring the unknown. Maybe you’ll discover something no one else has thought about. It’s an adventure in discovery. Right now I’m tracking another EA that has make 16 trades with no losses, on a demo since Jan 6. It’s a black box system, and I’m still studying how it works. The day may come when it may not work anymore, but still it’s a fascinating study, because a robot that has no emotions or ego, and can do thousands of calculations per second, will do better than me any day. Remember, automated trading will be different years from now, just like today’s PCs.

This forum has been great, lots of ideas and points of views, great food for thought. Thanks everyone . . .