ForexMorningTrade System

[barebud]

When I do general backtesting with FMT, I don't see it's performance start to take off until late 2007 and early 2008. Can anyone tell me what market dynamics were taking place during that time that were different from that preceding those dates? It would be nice to know what kind of market conditions suit FMT and which don't, so we can be on the watch for unfavorable conditions.

 

[Bobcat1354]

When I do general backtesting with FMT, I don't see it's performance start to take off until late 2007 and early 2008. Can anyone tell me what market dynamics were taking place during that time that were different from that preceding those dates? It would be nice to know what kind of market conditions suit FMT and which don't, so we can be on the watch for unfavorable conditions.

The US economic meltdown is the culprit. So...I think we should be encouraged with Mark's FMT System as it has performed nicely with the CURRENT economic conditions. It does little good to backtest prior to those dates, because it was a different economic world back then. Take a look at a weekly chart and note the difference in market dynamics prior to and after 2007-2008.

Good trading!

 

[barebud]

It seems that the period of time for the economic meltdown was actually quite productive for FMT and then periods of relative stability were mediocre for it... this is what concerns me... is it something we should be aware of?

 

[wiseambitions]

OK, if the FMT system, (which wasn't for sale at the time), had periods that were mediocre several years ago, does anyone have figures to indicate the returns which it might have achieved?

I might mention that there have been companies issuing forex signals on a daily basis, for GBP/USD and other major pairs, at similar times to FMT for many years, and have claimed fairly consistent success, in short term day trading, so there must be something of permanent importance to this kind of system.

 

[Bobcat1354]

It seems that the period of time for the economic meltdown was actually quite productive for FMT and then periods of relative stability were mediocre for it... this is what concerns me... is it something we should be aware of?

Exactly my point...
Today, it's a different economic/monetary world than existed prior to the US meltdown. Few would argue this scenario. Consequently, backtesting and system performance predating the meltdown are rendered pretty much inconsequential. For example, the ADR for "cable" (EUR/USD) has eclipsed the "beast" (GBP/JPY) for the past 20 day session. This was highly unusual 3 years ago.

For me, prior permance to the meltdown is a moot point. I, for one, am very pleased with Mark's FMT performance for the past two years. +56% in 2009 and +87% in 2010. You will be hard-pressed to find a legitimate system that outperforms FMT over that span. :clap:

 

[tkbieber]

What if we were given a two step trailing stop option. Move to BE at 20 = step 1 as we have now, then step 2 (which would be optional) where say at +30 (or at any price you choose) you move BE to +10. You would still be 20 pips behind price but on BE days you will either get 0 or +10. Maybe this is already an option in TMT i don't know as I have not been following it.,

Yes, it is on Turbo and a very nice feature which I use. I've seen times when the market came 1 pip ONE pip from hitting my 35 pip target and went south. Using BE at least keep your balance from neg for the day. Using BE plus a few pips at least give you a warm fuzzy feeling. and having a second moving stop as Turbo has gives you a HA HA feeling when market almost hits your TP and then pulls back.

Today however, just a crazy day. Yes all the BE's got stopped out but no BE got a full win of at least 40 pips.

Yeah, I'd say pick an even strategy, prove the strategy by back-testing and forward testing and stick with that. Constantly changing just makes one feel like a dog chasing it's tale.

 

[rrobichaux]

I wonder how GPS arrived at a SL 88 and whether it always succeeds when leveraging 5 times more on the reversal?

-----
On a different tack completely, not an EA, but I saw mention the other day here of the QQE indicator which can be added to metatrader (it's not standard). It looks quite interesting on a 1hr chart and seems to avoid a lot of the whipsaw which befalls other systems. For example, whereas today FMT got us all wrong by tipping us out at 40SL, QQE said stay in the trade. QQE had signalled short since 19.00 Tuesday like FMT did to us at 06.30 Weds, and in spite of the rise around 08.00, it didn't indicate to quit yet, and by staying in the trade it might have given us 80 pips at its lowest point mid pm 6 or 7 hours later. At the time of writing now, (almost 22.00GMT) it's still saying stay short, but the market may just be on the turn.

Where is this QQE found or what are the setings?
What do you think of it?

Bobby

 

[doepi3]

During backtesting, what was your win:lose ratio doepi3 ? If that's good, then the R:R doesn't seem so bad.

Here are the results of the back testing I referred to:

TP 30, SL 50, no B/E:
Winners: 123 = 3690 pips
Losers: 30 = 1500 pips
Profit: 2190 pips

TP 30, SL 50, B/E 20:
Winners: 102 = 3060 pips
Losers: 21 = 1050 pips
Profit: 2010 pips

The difference is only 180 pips, but this shows that the B/E strategy does not add value in the long term...

 

[FXCO]

Where can you get the QQE indicator?

 

[JWBear]

I live in the US and wonder how others report their Forex profits on their taxes or do you report at all? I can't find any info on this subject online. Thanks in advance.

 

[tkbieber]

Here are the results of the back testing I referred to:

TP 30, SL 50, no B/E:
Winners: 123 = 3690 pips
Losers: 30 = 1500 pips
Profit: 2190 pips

TP 30, SL 50, B/E 20:
Winners: 102 = 3060 pips
Losers: 21 = 1050 pips
Profit: 2010 pips

The difference is only 180 pips, but this shows that the B/E strategy does not add value in the long term...

For many, it adds peace of mind.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-06-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even, FXSolutions, 1.5510, 1.5509, -1.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 8 No Trades, 10 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-06-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break, IBFX, 1.55091, 1.55089, -2.0
My stats since 01-04-2010: 0 No Trades, 1 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -83.5 pips
Pips include slippage, using standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-05-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.55090, 1.55090, 0.0
FXCM, 1.55097, 1.55097, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.55087, 1.55087, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.55095, 1.55095, 0.0
FXDD, 1.55093, 1.55093, 0.0
MB Trading, 1.55085, 1.55085, 0.0

 

[davidmccann]

Indicators look like a short trade coming up but not sure about that ?

 

[Antomi]

Re: GPS

I strongly advise taking a close look at the trades. When I backtested GPS:

(1) on Oct. 12 on EURUSD it came within 1 pip of blowing up: it hit the -88 pips, went short and only touched the short target price (+19 at 1.3776 at 09:50) before reversing and going long again. This is on GPS's own tracking statement.

(2) on Nov. 12 it DID blow up the account - after hitting the -88 pips and then going short, PA didn't go south long enough to 19 pips before heading north again and never looked back. What makes this of special concern is that GPS doesn't show taking a trade on Nov. 12 on its tracking statement, but when I backtested the robot, it did trade on this day!

I also took a closer look to this system, especially because the add contents some "live proofs" (MT4i). I checked them and found some strange thinks. Probably the data are fake.
I spoke with a friend, a programmer and he mentioned that it is easy (for a programmer) to show artificial data on MT4i.
It makes me always suspicious to read all these add-hypes.

Antomi

 

[wiseambitions]

Indicators look like a short trade coming up but not sure about that ?

The indicators are not ambiguous today and going by them you'd be doing the FMT thing right. You never know every day whether you're going to have a lucky go or not, although the odds are 70:30 that you'll be ok.
Today is USA non farm payroll day, with stats coming out later, and some people would say stay out of the way, but that news is several hours ahead of our action, so I never see this as reason to stop
Best luck

 

[davidmccann]

Went short at 1.5437. Anybody else trading or have I got it wrong.

 

[wiseambitions]

Went short at 1.5437. Anybody else trading or have I got it wrong.

we cant say too much about the indicators and FMT system on a public forum where other watchers might not be paid up members but yes it would look like a short today

best luck

 

[Flourish]

I will trade from my live account next week.

 

[davidmccann]

Oh, sorry. New to this.

 

[doepi3]

Short as well - 15437 - on my live account.