ForexMorningTrade System

OK Guys, Gals

I think I may have solved the puzzle with regards to why we are getting different signals on a Monday morning.
I checked 2 Brokers feeds, Oanda and Alpari UK and have found the following:

1) Both brokers went offline last Friday at 9pm London time for the weekend. OK,Good
2) However Oanda went back online at 6pm Sunday London time, Alpari UK went online 5 hours later at 11pm London time.

So therefore Oanda would have accrued more data than Alpari by being live for 5 hours more. That in turn would have caused significant fluctuations in the 2 indicators that trigger trades. Luck was on Alpari's side today, however the same may not happen going forward and could favour other brokers instead.

If you see Marks journal, his trade never triggered either, I'm not sure of his brokers times but it was not the same as either Oanda or Alpari.

The bottom line is that Mondays will always have most brokers out of sync with each other and it may be luck of the draw on who gets a trade in the right direction or not. Sorry but this seems to be the sad truth. Especially if the indicators are close to the zero and 100 lines. (I don't want give clues on our indicators)

From Tuesdays onwards we should all be singing off the same hymn sheet as the indicators on all our brokers should be aligned.

The million dollar question is which Broker do you follow on a Monday ?????

Any comments ?:smart:
 
Last edited:
podberry said:
OK Guys, Gals

I think I may have solved the puzzle with regards to why we are getting different signals on a Monday morning.
I checked 2 Brokers feeds, Oanda and Alpari UK and have found the following:

1) Both brokers went offline last Friday at 9pm London time for the weekend. OK,Good
2) However Oanda went back online at 6pm Sunday London time, Alpari UK went online 5 hours later at 11pm London time.

So therefore Oanda would have accrued more data than Alpari by being live for 5 hours more. That in turn would have caused significant fluctuations in the 2 indicators that trigger trades. Luck was on Alpari's side today, however the same may not happen going forward and could favour other brokers instead.

If you see Marks journal, his trade never triggered either, I'm not sure of his brokers times but it was not the same as either Oanda or Alpari.

The bottom line is that Mondays will always have most brokers out of sync with each other and it may be luck of the draw on who gets a trade in the right direction or not. Sorry but this seems to be the sad truth. Especially if the indicators are close to the zero and 100 lines. (I don't want give clues on our indicators)

From Tuesdays onwards we should all be singing off the same hymn sheets as the indicators on all our brokers should be aligned.

The million dollar question is which Broker do you follow on a Monday ?????

Any comments ?:smart:
Click to expand...

Not Oanda! :mad: Yes, they open with the Kiwi market 10am PST. Thank you for the enlightenment podberry. Great forum.
 
podberry said:
OK Guys, Gals

I think I may have solved the puzzle with regards to why we are getting different signals on a Monday morning. Oanda would have accrued more data than Alpari by being live for 5 hours more. Luck was on Alpari's side today, however the same may not happen going forward and could favour other brokers instead.

If you see Marks journal, his trade never triggered either, I'm not sure of his brokers times but it was not the same as either Oanda or Alpari.

The bottom line is that Mondays will always have most brokers out of sync with each other
From Tuesdays onwards we should all be singing off the same hymn sheet as the indicators on all our brokers should be aligned.

The million dollar question is which Broker do you follow on a Monday ?????

Any comments ?:smart:
Click to expand...


I did a lot of work on this topic, with Red Guerilla too, back in January, and I've thought about the maths since, due to other marginal days.

I think it is important to bear in mind that Forex trading is as unfair as a camel market (I use the expression of another member there!) so we can't make a precise science out of it.

What I tend to do on Mondays, not using the EA, is to look at trends on a smaller timescale. Eg from midnight UK time to 06.30 am, to confirm that the FMT template indicators are probably right. FMT draws on a 15 hour data period, which goes back usually to 15.30 UK time the previous day. Of course on a Monday that isn't particularly relevant what went on at the end of the Friday London/Europe session and US session until say 22.00 Friday night before the shutdown. Many political, geographical and economic factors can emerge during the weekend. I have regard to the EMA of the previous 6 and 10 hours, but usually proceed on Alpari UK indicators. Perhaps Sunday night's Asian session was distorted slightly due I believe to a bank holiday in Japan.

Best I think to work on the faith that these differences should even themselves out over a year. Also don't stake a crazy percentage of your capital on a single trade. There is probably one occasion a month when Mark (whose journal is the benchmark!) gets a trade when I don't, or where I get a trade and he doesn't. But I don't believe in the long run, say the 200 trades which should occur over 12 months, the difference will be significant in the number of pips gained. Therefore having followed the FMT system now for about 6 months I am less perturbed than I used to be about the odd day here and there. You may become more comfortable after longer experience and begin to share my opinion on this.

Good luck, keep at it! You'll often see I publish data relating to my own forward testing, and it shows FMT in a brilliant light.
 
podberry, wiseambitions.. excellent posts. thanks.

puts my mind at ease.. at least until 6:30am tomo morning..

;)
 
podberry said:
OK Guys, Gals

I think I may have solved the puzzle with regards to why we are getting different signals on a Monday morning.
I checked 2 Brokers feeds, Oanda and Alpari UK and have found the following:

1) Both brokers went offline last Friday at 9pm London time for the weekend. OK,Good
2) However Oanda went back online at 6pm Sunday London time, Alpari UK went online 5 hours later at 11pm London time.

So therefore Oanda would have accrued more data than Alpari by being live for 5 hours more. That in turn would have caused significant fluctuations in the 2 indicators that trigger trades. Luck was on Alpari's side today, however the same may not happen going forward and could favour other brokers instead.

If you see Marks journal, his trade never triggered either, I'm not sure of his brokers times but it was not the same as either Oanda or Alpari.

The bottom line is that Mondays will always have most brokers out of sync with each other and it may be luck of the draw on who gets a trade in the right direction or not. Sorry but this seems to be the sad truth. Especially if the indicators are close to the zero and 100 lines. (I don't want give clues on our indicators)

From Tuesdays onwards we should all be singing off the same hymn sheet as the indicators on all our brokers should be aligned.

The million dollar question is which Broker do you follow on a Monday ?????

Any comments ?:smart:
Click to expand...

I had a thought last night, what I will be doing going forward is work with 3 Brokers, Oanda (live account) Alpari (demo) and PFG Best (Marks platform demo)

On a Monday, half an hour before the trade triggers, I will compare all three broker indicators and look for alignment, If all 3 are showing a long or short then alls well. If not then I may consider a no trade for the day. If there is marginal differences I will go in the direction of 2 brokers Alpari and PFG Best due to Oanda's extra 5 hour price feed upsetting the apple cart.:smart:
 
Stats for 03-21-2011



Live Accounts:

FMT 4.3, EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP
6:30 UK Time, FXSolutions, No Trade, 0.0, Stats since 11-08-2010: Total= -6.0
6:30 UK Time, IBFX......., Long/Profit, +35.0, Stats since 01-04-2011: Total= +240.0
6:30 UK Time, PFG........, No Trade, 0.0, Stats since 03-01-2011: Total= +9.3



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.3, EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP
6:30 UK Time, PFG Best.., No Trade, 0.0, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +317.7
6:30 UK Time, FXCM......, No Trade, 0.0, 0.0, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +359.7
6:30 UK Time, Alpari(US), Long/Profit, +35.2, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +313.3
6:30 UK Time, FXDD......, No Trade, 0.0, Stats since 02-01-2011: Total= +246.0



Notes:

All pip totals include slippage
FXSolutions is the only dealing desk broker
 
wiseambitions said:
I did a lot of work on this topic, with Red Guerilla too, back in January, and I've thought about the maths since, due to other marginal days.

I think it is important to bear in mind that Forex trading is as unfair as a camel market (I use the expression of another member there!) so we can't make a precise science out of it.

What I tend to do on Mondays, not using the EA, is to look at trends on a smaller timescale. Eg from midnight UK time to 06.30 am, to confirm that the FMT template indicators are probably right. FMT draws on a 15 hour data period, which goes back usually to 15.30 UK time the previous day. Of course on a Monday that isn't particularly relevant what went on at the end of the Friday London/Europe session and US session until say 22.00 Friday night before the shutdown. Many political, geographical and economic factors can emerge during the weekend. I have regard to the EMA of the previous 6 and 10 hours, but usually proceed on Alpari UK indicators. Perhaps Sunday night's Asian session was distorted slightly due I believe to a bank holiday in Japan.

Best I think to work on the faith that these differences should even themselves out over a year. Also don't stake a crazy percentage of your capital on a single trade. There is probably one occasion a month when Mark (whose journal is the benchmark!) gets a trade when I don't, or where I get a trade and he doesn't. But I don't believe in the long run, say the 200 trades which should occur over 12 months, the difference will be significant in the number of pips gained. Therefore having followed the FMT system now for about 6 months I am less perturbed than I used to be about the odd day here and there. You may become more comfortable after longer experience and begin to share my opinion on this.

Good luck, keep at it! You'll often see I publish data relating to my own forward testing, and it shows FMT in a brilliant light.
Click to expand...

I'm in total agreement with wiseambitions, it don't bother me anymore either. There will always be differences, but they average out. It really doesn't matter as long as you're profitable . . .
 
Call me a cynic but I think we are gonna hit a SL today. We are already several pips in the negative.
 
eddie69 said:
i will stay out today very strong resistance.
Click to expand...

We are already above some of the weekly resistance, and I see a bull flag on the weekly chart. Looks like it is time for a breakout to the upside anyway. Besides FMT doesn't care about resistance - it is guided by mass volume surge at the European/London open. I would stick with the system rules. ;)
 
Daily closed above 163, that could be important. When I looked at the charts this morning I was hoping for a long and that's what we got. UK CPI figures this morning could have a significant impact if the trade is still live. The limit will come off if we get a push up to about 16340, hoping for a break. Usually I trade the system strictly, but occasionally there are opportunities for more pips - this has potential, perhaps.

eddie69, in my opinion you will never beat the system like that.
 
I'm new with FMT. What are the blue rectangles for? I thought they would show times within which we could open a trade, but we are within the rectangle now and the Indicator says "Not time for trade". The trade signal was only given during the first 15-min bar of the rectangle, but in fact better conditions for entry occurred during the second bar 0645 - 0700.
 
clam0391 said:
I'm new with FMT. What are the blue rectangles for? I thought they would show times within which we could open a trade, but we are within the rectangle now and the Indicator says "Not time for trade". The trade signal was only given during the first 15-min bar of the rectangle, but in fact better conditions for entry occurred during the second bar 0645 - 0700.
Click to expand...

The Blue section serves no purpose but a visual of market from time of entry for the next two hours.
Entry is always based on close of 06:15 candle at exactly 06:30am
 
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