ForexMorningTrade System

[hammy66]

I get confused on this thread about local time, GMT and broker time.
I use Alpari UK, and the FMT start time of 05:30 becomes 07:30 my broker time.
Are the times you quote, eg 06:30, your broker times? Does this translate to 07:30 Alpari UK time?
I am about to go live with your time settings

YES, these are all GMT. (London) times !

However, I am changing my settings for next week...
If you want to keep the one's I was running, they are still good, I just see a bit of improvement, we'll see ?

6:00 start, SL=60, TP=30, BE=15 (0.05 lots)
6:15 start, SL=50, TP=30, BE=15 (0.10 lots)
6:30 start, SL=50, TP=30, BE=15 (0.10 lots)
6:45 start, SL=60, TP=30, BE=15 (0.05 lots)

Let me explain why I'm making a change, even after getting positive results this month so far..
The weakness in my 4 start time system is the 6:00 and 6:45 times, there is no doubt that 6:15 and 6:30 produce the best results in the long run, but I don't like putting all my eggs in one basket each day when the other 2 times can help add to profits. My results show me that settings for 6:15 were outperforming 6:30, so I made them both the same as 6:15, 50-30-15 with no BE=20 and BE+5. For 6:00 and 6:45 my results show they don't always enter at a good price so I'm giving them some more room to correct, thus SL=60. However with the higher SL setting I am also cutting the lots in half so in case of a SL I don't want these 2 start times hurting my daily profits too much. I am happy to get the half lots TP=30 because after all these 2 outside times are being used to suppliment the profits from the better 2 start times, so even a small profit helps ! Now the reason for wimping out to the BE=15 on all the start times is simple, I would rather get a BE than a SL so this gives me a free trade early just in case the market reverses quickly after being in profit by 15 but short of TP. My results show that once the break-out occurs it usually travels at least 30-35 pips suddenly, so I'm not too worried about the retracement to my BE=15 that often.

Of course I will scrap any of these start times if they start losing consistantly, the 6:45 one is very odd, last week it was a loser but sometimes it actually works better than 6:30, so I will keep it for now and I hope these new settings will bring even better results. Like I said, there is nothing wrong with my last settings if you want to keep using them, they have performed well up to now !

Have a great weekend , see you Monday !

cheers !..:cheesy:

 

[tkbieber]

Looks positive
Is this a system which opens with FMT starting orders but with private exit settings, or is it something completely different?

I use the same indicators but pretty much different open times, sl and tp's.

 

[Lady Forex]

Hi guys,
I've been reading the last few posts of this thread and I think there are some good ideas recently. Here is my elaboration of these ideas which I can confirm from backtesting seems to be profitable: Set up one GU chart for long trades only at 10tp 40sl, and another GU chart for short trades only at 40tp 40sl 24be. The short trades allow us to quickly recover from the poor R:R of the long trades, and the long trades give us reliable consistent profits when short trades are not available.
Cheers

That is what I have been considering doing except I am not sure about the 24 BE. It would be the safest method. Of course one would have to be available when the trade triggers in order to cut the appropriate EA on.

Lady Forex

 

[chrisheath]

That is what I have been considering doing except I am not sure about the 24 BE. It would be the safest method. Of course one would have to be available when the trade triggers in order to cut the appropriate EA on.

Lady Forex

You could set up 2 separate charts. One has EA with Long settings, the other Short settings. Go To 'Expert Properties', then 'Common'. 'Postions' lets you choose only Longs, or only Shorts (or both).

Chris.

 

[Lady Forex]

You could set up 2 separate charts. One has EA with Long settings, the other Short settings. Go To 'Expert Properties', then 'Common'. 'Postions' lets you choose only Longs, or only Shorts (or both).

Chris.

Thank you. I had not noticed we could do that.

Lady Forex

 

[Remraf]

A lot of posts seem to revolve around the ability to do backtesting looking for the Holy Grail - is this a dark art only performed by the chosen few - or can anyone have a go at it? - I'd be pleased to be enlightened, as long as it doesn't involve a) Being exceptionally clever, or b) too much time on my hands!
Time for bed

 

[chrisheath]

A lot of posts seem to revolve around the ability to do backtesting looking for the Holy Grail - is this a dark art only performed by the chosen few - or can anyone have a go at it? - I'd be pleased to be enlightened, as long as it doesn't involve a) Being exceptionally clever, or b) too much time on my hands!
Time for bed

Remraf - welcome to the dark side!

 

[chrisheath]

A lot of posts seem to revolve around the ability to do backtesting looking for the Holy Grail - is this a dark art only performed by the chosen few - or can anyone have a go at it? - I'd be pleased to be enlightened, as long as it doesn't involve a) Being exceptionally clever, or b) too much time on my hands!
Time for bed

Its basically quite straightforward. This may appear daunting, but its really not difficult.
Once you have it setup, you can quickly test an EA with varying parameters.

Make sure you EA is loaded into MT4. On the chart go into 'View' , at the top, then 'Strategy Tester'. A window opens up below the chart(which you can enlarge, if you want).
Now you can choose your EA, the symbol, timeframe, model accuracy, (Control points for quick, inaccurate test, Every tick for slower, more accurate test).
'Use date' allows you to choose the date range for backtesting. Visual mode allows you to see the trades as they occur on the unfolding chart, but its SLOW.
'Expert properties' shows you the options for the EA, 'Testing' shows initial deposit, currency, and whether you want to test Long only, Short only, or both. (Optimization, you can play with later). ' Inputs' shows the options for the EA , under 'Value', eg Start Time,Stop Loss, Target etc. Click OK to exit - maybe twice.
Once you've set up your EA parameters, pressing 'Start' will magically run the test. The tabs at the bottom of the Testing window change, and you can see a 'Graph' develop, look at the trade 'Results', and , when test is finished, view the 'Report'. (You can save the 'Report' by right clicking on the Report, and clicking on umm.. 'Save as Report.)

You can view the chart with the trades that occurred by clocking on 'Open Chart'. There's an option to modify the EA, only if you have the source code. (Not for FMT, or TMT.)

Optimizing goes a step further. You can get the Strategy tester to run through a series of numbers, eg Stop Loss from 20pips to say 50 pips in steps of 1, and generate a Report.
To do this, click on 'Expert Properties', 'Inputs'. Go to the parameter you're trying to optimize. If the little box, at the far left is white, you can optimize that parameter. Click on the box, and a tick will appear, and set your optimizing setup by setting 'Start' value, eg 20 for Stop, 'Step' for an increase of 1 (ie pip) each time, and 'Stop' value eg 40 . I would advise only optimizing one parameter to start with.
Click OK to exit.
If you look underneath 'Period' on the main Tester screen, you'll see 'Optimization'. Click on that, a tick appears. Click on 'Start'.
An optimization graph tab appears, and an Optimization Results tabs, which are what they say. (You can 'Save as Report', as before.)

The results generated are different from a non-optimised test, and can indicate the best parameter for the EA.

To learn to use the Strategy Tester, it may be best to run a few non optimized tests, with a small date range ( maybe 2 months) - to get you're feet wet with all the available options, and to get familiar with the results, and what they mean.
You can, of course try the different settings you've seen in the Forum.
If you run lomger tests (say, a year or more), you'll see the length of time it takes.

When you optimize, you'll multiply that time by the number of steps in your optimization. It can be hours for say 3-4 year backtesting, covering a lot of steps. (Unless you have a spare Tianhe-1A computer.)

That is a very brief overview, but should get you going. Then you'll discover the nuances of backtesting on MT4. And quite possibly drive yourself mad. But don't concern yourself with that just yet!

Good luck! Chris

 

[Remraf]

Thanks Chris for this explanation, I'll give it a go and see how I get on!

Reply, appreciated!

Chris

 

[chrisheath]

Thanks Chris for this explanation, I'll give it a go and see how I get on!

Reply, appreciated!

Chris

Remraf, one 'nuance' you have to bear in mind - at weekends is the spread can be huge, depending on your platform. This can make a reasonable strategy look poor. There are ways round that. If you have any queries, I'll try to answer them.
Regards, Chris

 

[megamuel]

Is everyone trading today? I believe its a holiday in the USA. Could that affect things?

 

[Magicpip]

Is everyone trading today? I believe its a holiday in the USA. Could that affect things?

Yes, from what I've seen with the bank holiday trading, there isn't enough movement, I'm staying out on all bank holidays. Didn't do that on Thanksgiving and there was a loss that day.

 

[wiseambitions]

no trade here 06.30

 

[chrisheath]

Alpari - UK no trade -Smart Live notrade -back to bed!

 

[joke]

no trade here 06.30

no trade..0630..fxdd..live..ea.

 

[Remraf]

No trade at 6.30am on my ThinkForex Demo.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 02-18-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, no trade, 0.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 15 No Trades, 19 Break Evens, 20 Losses, 20 Profits, Total: -122.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP
Comparing with Mark's live account since 11-08-2010: Total: -18.0 pips

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, no trade, 0.0 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 8 No Trades, 7 Break Evens, 8 Loss, 11 Profits, Total: +51.2 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP
Comparing with Mark's live account since 01-04-2011: Total: +59.0 pips



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:No Trade
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 0.0 (Lost Forex.com demo, last entry)
FXCM, 0.0
Alpari(US), 0.0
FXDD, 0.0



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, 1.61748, 1.62049, hit TP= +30.1 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +128.6 pips
Comparing with FXSolutions live account since 01-20-2011: Total: +114.0 pips


Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, buy trade, 1.62349, 1.62396, hit BE= +4.7 pips ...
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -108.9 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +42.1 pips
Comparing with FXSolutions live account since 02-01-2011: Total: +89.0 pips



Stats for 02-20-2011



FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, buy trade, 1.36917, 1.36991, hit TP= +7.4 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, sell trade, 0.94558, 0.94486, hit TP= +7.41 pips
Total for both trades: +14.8 pips ...
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -11.6 pips

 

[phn73]

Hello Ladies / Gents,

It has just occured to me that by our publishing of trading signals on this blog as they happen (i.e. at 06:30 exactly), some unscrupulous person could just view this forum and then trade FMT by reading the comments without paying Mark a penny?

Given that everyone who has paid for FMT already KNOWS what the signal is (by virtue of having purchased the system) possibly we should wait until later on to discuss, compare with other brokers or analyse?

Just an idea!

Philip.

 

[chrisheath]

Hello Ladies / Gents,

It has just occured to me that by our publishing of trading signals on this blog as they happen (i.e. at 06:30 exactly), some unscrupulous person could just view this forum and then trade FMT by reading the comments without paying Mark a penny?

Given that everyone who has paid for FMT already KNOWS what the signal is (by virtue of having purchased the system) possibly we should wait until later on to discuss, compare with other brokers or analyse?

Just an idea!

Philip.

Mostly - they would just get confused! (Because of conflicting signals - different systems etc.)

 

[chrisandrews12]

Hi,

I would like to create a spreadsheet that shows a forecast of losses and wins for FMT/TMT.

For example @80% or 76% with a risk of different percentages per trade.

Maybe a projection based on performance for 2009/2010 that would include the exact same trades taken during those years

I don't know if this can be done but any help or reference would be great.

Many thanks,

Chris