ForexMorningTrade System

Antomi said:
I think the problem is how the broker handles the weekend.
Antomi
Click to expand...

I believe the mathematics by which the (un-nameable) FMT indicators are calculated by MT4 and other charting software are quite complex

However what I think causes the difference is not so much the actual prices of individual brokers, but the time at which they cease quoting on a Friday night and restart trading on Sunday night. Some would stop at 21.00 GMT Friday, others at 22.00 or even later, and some may start trading 21.00 GMT on Sunday, others at 22.00, and therefore what goes on at the very end of Friday's trading times (in USA) and the start of the Sunday night (Asian) session eg whether the broker stops for 48 hours or less or more, is going to cause the calculations to be at variance all of Monday morning. Seeing FMT data is calculated over a 15 hour period it could take until the USA trading session has started (when London is nearly through) until different broker feeds on charts line up with similar readings. I don't think it is possible to say which of all of them is most right for our purposes on a Monday morning. But I have been caused to think we can confirm the trend (whether or not both our indicators are the same side of their signal lines), by having regard to whether moving averages are rising or falling between 4.00 and 6.30 am. That system is I understand the simple principle of a competing product (which I don't subscribe with)
 
Last edited:
12-20-2010
FMT 4.1
Profit
+35 pips

Trading FMT Stats Since 11-08-2010
My stats: 10 Profits + 7 Losses + 8 BE + 6 No Trades = 3 Profits = +64 pips
Mark’s stats: 9 Profits + 5 Losses + 8 BE + 9 No Trades = 4 Profits = +121 pips
Pips include slippage

My broker: FXSolutions, 4 decimal point price charts
and fixed spreads, Dealing Desk Execution, Live Account
Settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

Mark’s broker: PFG Best, 5 decimal point price charts
and variable spreads, Non-Dealing Desk Execution, Live Account
Settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP


I’ve traded FMT with standard settings for 8 Mondays since 11-08-2010.
Here are my Monday stats: 4 Profits + 1 Loss + 2 BE + 1 No Trade = 3 Profits
Mark’s Monday stats: 3 Profits + 0 Loss + 2 BE + 3 No Trades = 3 Profits

Tracking Demo Accounts for 12-20-2010
Long:
FOREX.com, 1.55204, 1.55556, +35.2 pips
No Trade:
IBFX
FXCM
FXDD

PFG Best (Demo) No Trade
PFG Best (Live), 1.5521, 1.5556, +35 (Mark’s trade)

PFG Best (Live) had a Long signal (Mark’s trade), but PFG Best (Demo) had a No Trade. This last Sunday, PFG Best (Demo) had a data gap, it opened 4 hours late. But PFG Best (Live) did not have this data gap. The data gap on the PFG Best (Demo) affected the indicators to give a No Trade signal.

Now that I’m tracking demo accounts, I’ve notice some demo accounts have data gaps throughout the day, some are very short, others are longer. It’s possible that these data gaps could also be affecting the signals for different brokers for both live and demo accounts?

My conclusions so far, I may be wrong, may need more research . . .
You get better slippage using a Non-Dealing Desk Execution broker with 5 decimal point price charts.
Getting different signals from different brokers don't really matter, because it will all average out profitably in the long run.
 
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yes, i shifted my stop at 15 pips positive, so have been stopped out at B/E , which is fine by me as it looks like it has reversed, but we will see.
 
bouzo132 said:
yes, i shifted my stop at 15 pips positive, so have been stopped out at B/E , which is fine by me as it looks like it has reversed, but we will see.
Click to expand...

I also moved my SL to 15 (+2) and got stopped out before the retracement.
 
Me also, -40!

Certainly seems to be proving the "Don't trade during the holidays" theory very well, if nothing else!

Can't wait for normal service to be resumed in the New year!
 
That the holidays make for unprofitable trading is generalisation and doesn't apply to FMT.

If it did, then it would be visible in backtesting. I checked it out, and in my book, there was nothing conclusive either way.

So I just stick to the plan. If you want to take a break, take a break but don't say it's because the markets are unprofitable. That's my philosophy, and it will still be my philosophy even if FMT loses every trade from now until January. Of course for next Christmas, I'll have more data and perhaps a different conclusion ;)
 
Adamus said:
That the holidays make for unprofitable trading is generalisation and doesn't apply to FMT.

If it did, then it would be visible in backtesting. I checked it out, and in my book, there was nothing conclusive either way.

So I just stick to the plan. If you want to take a break, take a break but don't say it's because the markets are unprofitable. That's my philosophy, and it will still be my philosophy even if FMT loses every trade from now until January. Of course for next Christmas, I'll have more data and perhaps a different conclusion ;)
Click to expand...

Last year at this time the there were something like 3 or 4 losing trades the week before the 25th. That is what I based my decision on not to trade this week. Now the week after the 25th was awesome last year. I'm going to hold out trading until after the 1st. If all shows normal wins/losses I'll just let it ride next year.

So far this week would have been for me, 1 win, one BE +7 pips (my setting). :)
 
12-21-2010
FMT 4.1
Loss
-40 pips

Trading FMT Stats Since 11-08-2010
My stats: 10 Profits + 8 Losses + 8 BE + 6 No Trades = 2 Profits = +24 pips
Mark’s stats: 9 Profits + 6 Losses + 8 BE + 9 No Trades = 3 Profits = +80 pips
Pips include slippage

My broker: FXSolutions, 4 decimal point price charts
and fixed spreads, Dealing Desk Execution, Live Account
Settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

Mark’s broker: PFG Best, 5 decimal point price charts
and variable spreads, Non-Dealing Desk Execution, Live Account
Settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP


Tracking Demo Accounts for 12-21-2010
Long trade:
FXCM, 1.55516, 1.55102, -41.4
IBFX, 1.55511, 1.55104, -40.7
FOREX.com, 1.55520, 1.55120, -40

PFG Best (Demo), 1.55511, 1.55099, -41.2
PFG Best (Live), 1.5551, 1.5510, -41 (Mark’s trade)


Called PFG Best about the 4 hour data gap I talk about in my last post. They didn't know anything about it and were going to look into it, but they said maybe they were doing a major upgrade. They said this kind of thing is rare.

They told me the disconnects during the day that can last from a few seconds to a few minutes, are updates to the servers. Demo and Live accounts are on different servers. They do the updates at different times for the Demo and Live servers. But these disconnects shouldn't affect the indicators since they're minor shutdowns.

Maybe some brokers manage their servers better than others?
 
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RedGuerrilla said:
Maybe some brokers manage their servers better than others?
Click to expand...

As well as Metatrader I use a charting program from a website which is not a broker

http://www.netdania.com/Products/li.../real-time-forex-charts/FinanceChart.aspx?m=c

I find the data is quite reliable, and the indicators we are likely to use are all there.
The main disadvantage is you cannot save the settings, and have to put these right every time you open the page (it uses Java). It also starts to calculate data with effect from 20.30GMT Sunday night and seems to give readings at 6.30AM on Mondays which reflect more accurately the trades which Mark's system picks up. I haven't been aware of data gaps, and use the site every day
 
Adamus said:
That the holidays make for unprofitable trading is generalisation and doesn't apply to FMT.

If it did, then it would be visible in backtesting. I checked it out, and in my book, there was nothing conclusive either way.

So I just stick to the plan. If you want to take a break, take a break but don't say it's because the markets are unprofitable. That's my philosophy, and it will still be my philosophy even if FMT loses every trade from now until January. Of course for next Christmas, I'll have more data and perhaps a different conclusion ;)
Click to expand...

I agree. You are either in the market or not. You have to make that decison and let it play out.
 
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