Forex Profit Monster - 4H TF

[Ingot54]

Trade Closed as Planned

The trade is nearing maturity, closing in on the TP set of 1.0650.

IT seems to be picking up momentum, and I am loathe to close it at the TP I set initially. To make the decision more difficult, the price has dropped even harder since the new 4H candle opened just 15 minutes ago - the trade has gained around 40 pips in 15 mins.

Of course we ned to be aware that the candle could be forming a long-tailed bottom here, because there is VERY strong resistance around where I placed the Take Profit (TP).

Jim (the author) says to set the TP, and the SL (Stop Loss) and to let the trades run, making decisions after the close of the candle. The Trend Power Indicator is still looking strong ... in our favour.

I think I will leave the initial stop exactly where it is. If I get the profit ... that's good - there will be another trade soon ... somewhere.

Meantime, let's just trust the system, and worry about the autopsy later.

Nice to see that the plan worked out on this occasion. We took 100 pips from this trade, and true to form, the Support level set by the FPM software held beautifully. The price went past our TP level by 10 pips before reversing, and is 20 pips north as I write. Gotta be happy with that!

Although I still think this pair will break though support sometime in this session, or the next, we can walk away with a rofit, and look around for the next trade - there always is another trade!

As for me - I have a day or two off from my night shifts - thus my being able to follow through this session. Time to snooze though folks - and I hope you have enjoyed watching a trade work out for us.

I hope to have a look at the "Triggers and Alerts" from earlier posts and see what, if anything, went awry with them. That will keep for later

NZDUSD - Sell at 0.6272 ........ Loss of 72 pips
EURUSD - Sell from 1.3844 ..... Loss of 103 pips
USDCHF - Buy from 1.0870 ..... Loss of 94 pips

The "Sell Alert for GBPUSD" materialised when the PM Slow Trend crossed below the line, giving us a SHORT entry at 1.6274

Best wishes

Ingot

 

[Ingot54]

There is always a good trade happening

Plenty of action atm!

Did you see the CHF pairs move!!

Nothing to do with FPM though, although the news-related spike DID send an ALERT for the EURCHF which rocketed 260 pips in 2 hrs!

Here's the skinny on that:

Swiss Franc Drops on Speculation SNB Sold Currency to Curb Gain - Bloomberg.com

I would ignore signals that send us an alert following such a shock Fundamental news item. Best to wait until the dust settles and see what the trend does. See advice below.

I found a signal at 0037 hrs GMT to go LONG the NZDUSD. I got an entry at 0.6397 and set a SL at 0.6358 with TP at 0.6469 for 72 pips.

I know that doesn't help anyone who is trying to do a few demo trades based on the FPM - but hey! by now I think the system has shown it's worth the outlay, and I don't think it is expensive.

ALERTS

AUDUSD - BUY alert
May need to wait until around 2000 hrs GMT for the next signal to go LONG if it eventuates. A lot can go wrong in the meantime.

EURJPY - BUY alert
May also need to wait until around 2000 hrs GMT for confirmation of the LONG trade.

Patience!

Technically we could look for another entry to the GBPUSD. Both the FPM Fast Trend and the FPM Slow Trend are still above there zero lines. We would need to get another small white "UP" arrow in order to take an entry. But honestly - why would you want to do that - there are enough trades without complicating things.

TRIGGERS

The EURCHF has given a BUY signal from 1.5202.
I would put SL at around 1.5110 - approx half the previous knee-jerk move up.
TP I would put around 1.5230 - the Fibs level of Resistance on the Daily chart.
That coincides with the Fibs level of 161.8 on the 4H chart. So it is not an odd place to place a TP.

Be careful if considering this trade - I think it still has some retracing back to the 1.5150 level before rallying higher is likely.

I have seen a lot of these retracements followed by further rallies over the past couple of years. You can make money from scalping the retracements after these fast moves - but of course the spread widens as liquidity dries up.

It may not happen - it is just probable.

The stochastic and the two MA's I use are also pointing to a rally, and on a close inspection, I tend to think they are right - even allowing for the news-spike-effect on them.

The FPM Trend POWER is looking like the TF are rallying.

Take care and best wishes

Ivan

 

[Ingot54]

TRIGGERS

The EURCHF has given a BUY signal from 1.5202.
I would put SL at around 1.5110 - approx half the previous knee-jerk move up.
TP I would put around 1.5230 - the Fibs level of Resistance on the Daily chart.
That coincides with the Fibs level of 161.8 on the 4H chart. So it is not an odd place to place a TP.

Be careful if considering this trade - I think it still has some retracing back to the 1.5150 level before rallying higher is likely.

Take care and best wishes

Ivan

I have had second thoughts about recommending this pair ... USDCHF that is.

It is simply too risky ... the risk:reward is not worth the trade, and as such I would say one word ... PASS!!

Best wishes

Ivan

 

[Ingot54]

1600 GMT Update

ALERTS

EURJPY alert to go LONG has been cancelled.

EURJPY alert has been given to be ready to go short. Look for this by 2000 hrs GMT

AUDUSD alert to go LONG still valid - again look for confirmation at 2000 hrs GMT

TRIGGERS

EURCHF still giving signals to go LONG.
I don't trust it right now - but there it is.
Because it is already so close to resistance, I would expect it to be a breakout proposition if it can get above 1.5230. Wait for a successful re-test of the level as SUPPORT before jumping in.

Do so only if desperate for a trade!

As for me - nothing to see here, so I will ove along ... to bed.

It's 0200 hrs AEST here in (usually) sunny Queensland!

Cheers and best wishes

Ivan

 

[Ingot54]

Amazing Forex Profit Monster Result!

EURCHF still giving signals to go LONG.
I don't trust it right now - but there it is.
Because it is already so close to resistance, I would expect it to be a breakout proposition if it can get above 1.5230. Wait for a successful re-test of the level as SUPPORT before jumping in.

Do so only if desperate for a trade!

Well - the system has surprised me - the "risky" trade rallied a further 150 pips before settling back. Since breaking through Resistance at 1.5230, it finally finished UP to the good of 60+ pips.

Goes to show that if you have a system, you should trust its signals and not to presuppose which ones you take and which not.

This monologue of mine over the past 12 hours highlights a reason traders make trouble for themselves: We have a good mechanical system, with an excellent pip-rate and minimum discretion required, and yet we want to somehow wring more out it than it was designed to produce.

I guess here is a good place to make noises like: "Take the good with the bad" and "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."

I don't think there is too much wrong with using a reinforcing indicator like the MTF Stochastic. But in this case, it would have been better to follow it - instead of looking at why the move might have been a "knee-jerk" - words I used in an earlier post.

Speaking of which ... take a look at the MTF Stochastic attached to the chart. If you can see how tightly ALL of the stochastics are, so that they look like a rope, then you are seeing something that would relegate systems like "Woodies CCI" to the dustbin. It is possible to make money purely by having nothing more than the MTF Stochastic on your screen - take a look at the second chart, which is largely just this indicator.. You enter as it crosses up/down through the 20/80 respectively, and remain with the trade for as long as it continues to rise, or stay above/below the 80/20 levels respectively.

In this case of the EURCHF, I have marked the entry level. There is NO exit at this time.

EDIT: I meant "re-entry" after closing the earlier trade at Resistance.
The trade has now broken through that resistance.
It is of historic interest only now - particularly since I decided against taking the trade.

Just an aside (I'm full of 'em) :smart:

TRIGGER

Have just received an entry signal for the USDCHF - at 0001 hrs GMT - as the new candle opened.

LONG at 1.0974
SL at 1.0906
TP at 1.1074

That is a moderate target and a reasonable risk:reward.

I have taken this trade on demo.

 

[Ingot54]

TRIGGER

Have just received an entry signal for the USDCHF - at 0001 hrs GMT - as the new candle opened.

LONG at 1.0974
SL at 1.0906
TP at 1.1074

That is a moderate target and a reasonable risk:reward.

I have taken this trade on demo.

Will not be able to monitor these trades and setups for the nex 12 hours or so. Happy for anyone who has the FPM to put in their $0.02 worth. As I write, it appears the CHF (Swiss Franc) is undergoing further punishment. There has been a breakout to the upside in both the USDCHF and the EURCHF.

Some retracing happening, but let's see where this is going.

Will post this now, and get back for the commentary on other moves.

Best wishes

Ivan

 

[Ingot54]

Here are my current trades:

LONG the EURCHF from 1.5305
LONG the USDCHF from 1.0970

ALERTS

LONG EURGPB - waiting for FAST TREND Indicator to cross - maybe by 1200 hrs GMT
SHORT EURAUD - waiting for SLOW TREND Indicator to cross - maybe by 1200 hrs GMT or 1600 hrs GMT
LONG EURJPY - waiting for the SLOW TREND Indicator to cross - maybe by 1200 hrs GMT

TRIGGERS

AUDUSD LONG from 0.7985. Price is 0.7966 as I write.
I entered at 0.7976 on Demo.

Will probably not comment now for 12 hrs or so - but in closing, have a closer look at the MTF stochastics. You can see where they are no longer neatly arrayed, or running together like a rope. Rather, their appearance is more like a fish-net - a bit criss-crossed and chaotic.

The developer of the MTF stochastic, Spudfyre from FF forum, warns agains entering trades when the stochastic appears like this, because it is simply a graphical representation of range-trading in the currency pair. It is OK if they are not "tight" - as long as they are "combed and orderly" and not "criss-crossed and chaotic".

At some point they will come together again, and that can give direction. In the meantime, the MTF ADX (FPM TREND POWER) does the same job - look to see how many TF are aligned.

Good luck with your Demo trades if you take the signals.

best wishes

Ivan

 

[NormB]

Hey guys, just wondering what the overall opinion on Forex Profit Monster is...would like to find a good, time tested, well received manual system if one exists lol

 

[Ingot54]

Opinion of FPM

Hey guys, just wondering what the overall opinion on Forex Profit Monster is...would like to find a good, time tested, well received manual system if one exists lol

Hi NormB

This thread was an attempt by me to discipline myself to trade something "to the letter" through posting the setups and trades.
In the beginning I hoped readers could suggest some tweaks, and I added the MTF stochastic as a suggestion.

A few traders follow the thread, but I am not sure anyone else owns a copy of FPM.
So you may only have my opinion of it.

I received a suggestion by PM alerting me to another Indicator which might be a good one to add-in to the window.

But after looking at it, I decided that for me personally, it was more of a system on its own, with quite a lot going for it in its own right.
Therefore I decided against bringing it in here.
The trader who told me about it may wish to commence his own thread about it.
I would love to try it out as a method.
More later perhaps on that ...

NormB this method is not available as an EA, but many of its features require the trader to simply wait until conditions are fulfilled (I can't say: "until the ducks line up" - there is another thread on that system! )
At the same time, there is an element of discretion because of the ability to look at differing TF and base "earlier" entries on what is happening there.

For example, if you are trading FPM on the 4H TF, you can sometimes see a trade setting up, but you must wait until the 4H candle actually closes.
Now if you drop down to the 1H TF a trade may already be triggered there, and running into profit very well.

If the trade setup on 4H is into its 3rd hour, and the 1H is running strongly in the direction of the potential 4H setup too, then in my view an earlier entry could be effected.

This would be common sense. If the train is coming ... it's coming!

Quite often I see the action is just about over before the confirming candle is completed. It means sometimes watching 60 pips get left on the table for the sake of purist trading. But if traders can refer to adjoining TF for trend and action, then I think quicte a lot more profit could be squeezed out of some trades.

I've done that.

As far as a "a good, time tested, well received manual system" goes ... you might need to look elsewhere on the forum for that one

The author trades 8 pairs that he posts results for on his blog:

Forex Profit Monster Trading System

But I usually trade quite a lot more pairs personally - and I am sure he may do that too. So I think in order to form an opinion about it, one may need to follow the system as written, with no add-ons. According to Jim's Blog, the method is successful.

I would have to say I am trading nothing else now - apart from a minor change or two, because it is an established mechanical method, with little discretionary activity required. Well - just enough to allow the trader to enjoy the decision-making.

It's nice to be a passenger, but sometimes it's nice to drive!

My own copy of FPM has just expired today. I thought it went for 3 months - but alas ... only one month. I have to email the author and give him the details of my MT4 platform to enable a permanent copy to run.

This is a condition of purchase. You get a temporary copy which will run immediately.
But it will expire in 30 days unless you email the author with the last 4 digits of your MT4 platform registration.
[EDIT: The author requires the full number - not only the last 4 digits of the platform reg number]
It can then be activated permanently. I will be doing that in the next hour or so.

My opinion of FPM is that the system is worth much more than the author is actually asking.
I also own another method that cost me USD$100 (the shark ea ... ProFX) and this one seems far and away better at half the cost.

Trust me ... if this system was garbage, I would be the first to have criticism of it.
I will post a couple of serious setups - with charts - in the next few days, to allow readers to judge it more accurately.

It has had some losing trades. I could post charts showing them if you wish.

Best wishes

Ivan

 

[coolpixel1]

Apologies for not contributing as much as I'd like - thought I'd take 2 minutes to write and respect to Ingot for keeping the post going - there'll come the day when it proves useful reading. For what it's worth, I'm not able to do much for family reasons but have given the FPM reigns to a co-conspirator who has continued with it purely on 4H charts, no shorter. I talked to him for the first time in over a week yesterday and he reported around $500 profit on a $1000 demo account (trading up to 5% risk per trade) following most, if not all the trades generated by the system. He said, there have been as many losing trades as winning, but has refrained from making the mistake he made the last time - his own judgement. I believe the system works - just be patient and follow. Expect bad trades, false signals. No-one's got a crystal ball! Many thanks to Ingot for a great thread. I will endeavour to contribute more in the future. Best wishes & good luck to all!

 

[AverageCosmicBeing]

Hi Ivan, Thanks for the insight. I have indeed found MTF Stoch a very expressive and seemingly reliable indicator. It's hard to quantify, but it is an excellent finger in the wind.
Am at the moment executing 4H FPM with very small 0.01 lots. The difficulty is to not second guess the system. But there clearly are trades that are better left, when the MTF Stochs are in a tangly mess...
Early days yet. If I survive and start heading up in six weeks or so I would consider it a success.

 

[davewooldridge]

Anyone ever read this thread? Ingot?

 

[Ingot54]

Anyone ever read this thread? Ingot?

Hi Dave

I started this thread with the idea of showing that there are commercial methods available at comparatively cheap rates, that can and do work.

Compared with some of the other threads discussing methods costing $$thousands, this one is relatively quiet.

That does not diminish nor enhance any method - cost bears no relationhsip to effectiveness, and shows that psychologically, people will write off a cheap-costing method before giving it a go.

What I HAVE found though, is that the method does what the author says it does, but probably better. I say "probably better" because the author is bound by his rules to publish exactly the results the method throws up, and not with any discretionary embellishments he may have made in his own trading.

Due to lack of discussion on the thread - as with a few of my threads, I have abandoned further comment - my energy is like everyone else's - restricted to a set of priorities n life. I have come up with a few longer term methods over the years, as you may know, but generally I have consistently not followed through on them.

I have not just rolled up my blanket and gone home, however - I have discovered a badly kept secret - price action. When I look back at many of the non-scalping methods I have used in the past 3 years, it jumped out at me that the application of even the simplest of the tenets of price action, would have not only helped avoid a lot of poor decisions, it would have given me the confidence to take trades that I was vacillating about.

I had a discussion with a market coach, who told me that my brains are scrambled (basically) from over-cooking myself in the quest for a no-nonsense method. The essence of his advice is that I should STOP ALL TRADING ACTIVITY for 3 months and restore some balance.

I am taking that advice, by and large, and am having a complete sabbatical from trading and attempting to fine-tune any trading methods.

Instead I am spending a little time each day studying a relatively inexpensive PA method I found, written by an Aussie bloke, based here on Queensland's Gold Coast. What I am seeing is pleasing to me, and well worth taking the time to understand.

I am also looking at the basics of trade management - not so much the generally accepted part of it called Position Sizing - I understand those issues. But my trading nemesis has usually been the management of entries in relation to Support and Resistance, and the placement of stops.

Too often I find a setup that matches my rules, but poorly-timed entry has trashed the trades. Finding trades is not difficult - we know it is not about getting a perfect trigger. But timing the entry to ensure most of the retracement has passed (before the trade runs in my desired diection) has for me at least, been amazingly consistent as an account killer.

I have often asked myself: "Why am I so dumb?"

My answer came in the form of what I have written above. It's not a question of "dumb" but of enlightenment. It will be different for all of us. I felt like Isaac Newton who was hit on the head by an apple, as he sat under the tree. And the outcome was waiting for me all along.

PA solves the "timing the entry" question for me. It's up to me now to find the trades that comply. I know there is a big bandwagon for PA right now - so I am checking it out, and finding that there is substance in it. It is not the next u-beaut grail, but a sound way to locate the footprint of the money. From there, I think it is possible to hitch a ride on the coat-tails of those whose job it is to move Foreign Exchange around.

It is NOT some great "secret method that insiders have been trading for years, and now for the first time, released to the first 50 people for just $147 plus p&p. After that, the price must rise!"

Again - for me - I will be able to trade my 4H and Daily charts to my heart's content, with a bit more knowledge on my side.

The Forex Profit Monster is probably one of the easiest and most consistent to use - particularly over the 4H and Daily TF. That's my goal, and that's my comfort level. PA can only help that happen.

 

[salvadorveiga]

hei Ingot54, I myself only trade from 4H charts upwards... less whipsaw, less noise, and less time in front of PC and living my own life. The best trades always happen on the bigger time frames

I've seen your monologue and i think you've found out how hard is trading... eheheh the assumptions we make, and trying to outguess a system... it may work a few times but in the long term, trying to outguess you will lose...

Saying things like "I won't take this one because it can't go much higher or its turning down here..." and then it goes up for 400 pips or something... not that uncommon... you gotta take all trades because just 1 trade can make a difference of a profit or a loss on your bottom line.

regards,

Sal

 

[salvadorveiga]

Hi NormB

This thread was an attempt by me to discipline myself to trade something "to the letter" through posting the setups and trades.
In the beginning I hoped readers could suggest some tweaks, and I added the MTF stochastic as a suggestion.

A few traders follow the thread, but I am not sure anyone else owns a copy of FPM.
So you may only have my opinion of it.

I received a suggestion by PM alerting me to another Indicator which might be a good one to add-in to the window.

But after looking at it, I decided that for me personally, it was more of a system on its own, with quite a lot going for it in its own right.
Therefore I decided against bringing it in here.
The trader who told me about it may wish to commence his own thread about it.
I would love to try it out as a method.
More later perhaps on that ...

NormB this method is not available as an EA, but many of its features require the trader to simply wait until conditions are fulfilled (I can't say: "until the ducks line up" - there is another thread on that system! )
At the same time, there is an element of discretion because of the ability to look at differing TF and base "earlier" entries on what is happening there.

For example, if you are trading FPM on the 4H TF, you can sometimes see a trade setting up, but you must wait until the 4H candle actually closes.
Now if you drop down to the 1H TF a trade may already be triggered there, and running into profit very well.

If the trade setup on 4H is into its 3rd hour, and the 1H is running strongly in the direction of the potential 4H setup too, then in my view an earlier entry could be effected.

This would be common sense. If the train is coming ... it's coming!

Quite often I see the action is just about over before the confirming candle is completed. It means sometimes watching 60 pips get left on the table for the sake of purist trading. But if traders can refer to adjoining TF for trend and action, then I think quicte a lot more profit could be squeezed out of some trades.

I've done that.

As far as a "a good, time tested, well received manual system" goes ... you might need to look elsewhere on the forum for that one

The author trades 8 pairs that he posts results for on his blog:

Forex Profit Monster Trading System

But I usually trade quite a lot more pairs personally - and I am sure he may do that too. So I think in order to form an opinion about it, one may need to follow the system as written, with no add-ons. According to Jim's Blog, the method is successful.

I would have to say I am trading nothing else now - apart from a minor change or two, because it is an established mechanical method, with little discretionary activity required. Well - just enough to allow the trader to enjoy the decision-making.

It's nice to be a passenger, but sometimes it's nice to drive!

My own copy of FPM has just expired today. I thought it went for 3 months - but alas ... only one month. I have to email the author and give him the details of my MT4 platform to enable a permanent copy to run.

This is a condition of purchase. You get a temporary copy which will run immediately.
But it will expire in 30 days unless you email the author with the last 4 digits of your MT4 platform registration.
[EDIT: The author requires the full number - not only the last 4 digits of the platform reg number]
It can then be activated permanently. I will be doing that in the next hour or so.

My opinion of FPM is that the system is worth much more than the author is actually asking.
I also own another method that cost me USD$100 (the shark ea ... ProFX) and this one seems far and away better at half the cost.

Trust me ... if this system was garbage, I would be the first to have criticism of it.
I will post a couple of serious setups - with charts - in the next few days, to allow readers to judge it more accurately.

It has had some losing trades. I could post charts showing them if you wish.

Best wishes

Ivan

by the way be careful with adding too many indicators... many is not synonym of quality and is counterproductive at times since you'll have too much information and may happen not to know what to do ... if the method your trading is sound, and it seems to be profitable already then, why adding more stuff and incur in the risk of wrecking it?

 

[Ingot54]

hei Ingot54, I myself only trade from 4H charts upwards... less whipsaw, less noise, and less time in front of PC and living my own life. The best trades always happen on the bigger time frames

I've seen your monologue and i think you've found out how hard is trading... eheheh the assumptions we make, and trying to outguess a system... it may work a few times but in the long term, trying to outguess you will lose...

Saying things like "I won't take this one because it can't go much higher or its turning down here..." and then it goes up for 400 pips or something... not that uncommon... you gotta take all trades because just 1 trade can make a difference of a profit or a loss on your bottom line.

regards,

Sal

Yes Sal - always a temptation to take a position mentally about where a currency is going. So far no one has successfully told the market where it should be going.

I guess even George Soros may have had second thoughts while waiting for the pound to crash in 1992. After all, his fabled one billion pound profit came from a 10 billion pound short position.

The man must have SOME nerves!

But in trading, it's business ... not pleasure ... not emotion ... not guessing what will happen.

Each time I take a position, I am reminded that the market can STILL go any direction it pleases - despite indicators and the best of edges.

If I didn't face myself squarely and admit that I still haven't grasped this trading thing properly yet, then I am destined to continue my folly. Do I beat myself up ... yes indeed ... and I still feel quite dumb about my failure to master trading, despite my experience.

I have had my share of wnners - and could still go back to the way I used to trade ... and probably do a bit better than I do now. But I don't want the lifestyle that went with that kind of trading. I know that I can do better and live better, and that is the prize.

So now I sit out of the loop, and go back to school as it were. I'm giving up posting and trying to help others for now. I feel I have little to offer, if I can not walk the talk myself, despite being so close at times.

And if my few months on the side still fails to deliver what I am looking for, then I will put my head down again ... and again ... until I grasp the missing pieces.

Right now I am pursuing a bit of psychology training through some coaching, and honing my trade management skills ... again! And I am looking at pure price action as either a stand-alone method, or for use with other methods I have used over the years.

The final wash-up will not materialise overnight, but I do expect an evolution - one that will begin in my head. I have always posted as openly and honestly as I can - even if it is a bit too self-disclosing for some. The reasons for that are very simple - I read far too much from other posters on other forums, that seem to give an impression of success and of having arrived.

If it is true, then all is well.

But the chances of so many posters on so many forums all being successful ... well I don't know about that! So my posting is open, so that other traders who are feeling a bit dejected about it, as I do, can see that it is OK to be human in the sense that we do take time to get the hang of things.

I share my feelings as well as expose my trades publicly - even if they crash. I think that must encourage others to a degree, that it is OK to mess up occasionally ... or frequently.

Meanwhile ... I have had a look at your excellent Blog, Sal. Your calls have been very good - congratulations on that. And I would have to say thatas an EW practitioner, you would be probably one of the better ones I have seen. Personally, it seems a bit too discretionary for me - I have a personality that would always fail to take the correct optionin a method like EW!

It is best for me to find a method that works and simply master it. I have not done that - I have been a chaser of the next best thing, and it has not paid off.

Thanks for your support - and that goes for all contributors here.

YouTube - The Terminator

 

[mrsoul]

Hi Dave

I started this thread with the idea of showing that there are commercial methods available at comparatively cheap rates, that can and do work.

Compared with some of the other threads discussing methods costing $$thousands, this one is relatively quiet.

That does not diminish nor enhance any method - cost bears no relationhsip to effectiveness, and shows that psychologically, people will write off a cheap-costing method before giving it a go.

What I HAVE found though, is that the method does what the author says it does, but probably better. I say "probably better" because the author is bound by his rules to publish exactly the results the method throws up, and not with any discretionary embellishments he may have made in his own trading.

Due to lack of discussion on the thread - as with a few of my threads, I have abandoned further comment - my energy is like everyone else's - restricted to a set of priorities n life. I have come up with a few longer term methods over the years, as you may know, but generally I have consistently not followed through on them.

I have not just rolled up my blanket and gone home, however - I have discovered a badly kept secret - price action. When I look back at many of the non-scalping methods I have used in the past 3 years, it jumped out at me that the application of even the simplest of the tenets of price action, would have not only helped avoid a lot of poor decisions, it would have given me the confidence to take trades that I was vacillating about.

I had a discussion with a market coach, who told me that my brains are scrambled (basically) from over-cooking myself in the quest for a no-nonsense method. The essence of his advice is that I should STOP ALL TRADING ACTIVITY for 3 months and restore some balance.

I am taking that advice, by and large, and am having a complete sabbatical from trading and attempting to fine-tune any trading methods.

Instead I am spending a little time each day studying a relatively inexpensive PA method I found, written by an Aussie bloke, based here on Queensland's Gold Coast. What I am seeing is pleasing to me, and well worth taking the time to understand.

I am also looking at the basics of trade management - not so much the generally accepted part of it called Position Sizing - I understand those issues. But my trading nemesis has usually been the management of entries in relation to Support and Resistance, and the placement of stops.

Too often I find a setup that matches my rules, but poorly-timed entry has trashed the trades. Finding trades is not difficult - we know it is not about getting a perfect trigger. But timing the entry to ensure most of the retracement has passed (before the trade runs in my desired diection) has for me at least, been amazingly consistent as an account killer.

I have often asked myself: "Why am I so dumb?"

My answer came in the form of what I have written above. It's not a question of "dumb" but of enlightenment. It will be different for all of us. I felt like Isaac Newton who was hit on the head by an apple, as he sat under the tree. And the outcome was waiting for me all along.

PA solves the "timing the entry" question for me. It's up to me now to find the trades that comply. I know there is a big bandwagon for PA right now - so I am checking it out, and finding that there is substance in it. It is not the next u-beaut grail, but a sound way to locate the footprint of the money. From there, I think it is possible to hitch a ride on the coat-tails of those whose job it is to move Foreign Exchange around.

It is NOT some great "secret method that insiders have been trading for years, and now for the first time, released to the first 50 people for just $147 plus p&p. After that, the price must rise!"

Again - for me - I will be able to trade my 4H and Daily charts to my heart's content, with a bit more knowledge on my side.

The Forex Profit Monster is probably one of the easiest and most consistent to use - particularly over the 4H and Daily TF. That's my goal, and that's my comfort level. PA can only help that happen.

Ivan,

I know someone who used to trade on the institutional desk.
He said that "most institutional traders key off the daily charts".
Focus on just the day chart- forget the 4hr. or less.
Try to get something to work on the daily chart.
It's easier to make it work because it is easier to make bigger profits.
Don't stop- just study the dailys.

Good Luck,

Michael

p.s. does profit monster make money?

 

[salvadorveiga]

wow thanks for the words... really appreciate it. I'm just a student of the market trying to get what it gives me... i have been fortunate this past year and half to be much in sync with the market fortunately.

Actually EW is very specific as well, although somewhat discretionary, you have straight rules of this that cannot happen, so if for example wave 2 undercuts wave 1 then you have to get out since your analysis was wrong... very good in placing stops etc as well...

~I agree with the previous user, I myself only trade from 4H up... 4H i do trade them somewhat, and daily's mostly...

It requires more discipline though since you wont' have as many trades... is kind of boring... but trading should be boring. FPM does sound as a good strategy... i went to check the blog of the creator it sounds good... now it's just a matter of consistency in practicing it...

Again thnaks for the words and I hope you can get from the market what you seek for...

PS: You write very good short stories... Loved the Trader Bill story eheh

 

[coolpixel1]

I'd just like to post something quickly here as I've been absent for some time now and just getting back into the swing of things. I've also been experiencing the 'education calling' Ingot mentioned - I've gone to the basics of Candlesticks, printing out and reading amongst others NickB's method, perusing over longer time-frame methods using the simplest tools - SMA's stochs - one at a time!
When I started in Forex I had 'indicatoritis' for about a month and it faded away.
I'm now much more interested in 4H and above and with that in mind I went for Forex Profit Monster along with a colleague as I remembered the chap from over 2 years back on ebay and thought there was some credibility there if he's still around (with 100% positive feedback no less).
As Ingot will attest, Jim (the author of FPM) is a stand-up guy and his blog truthfully reflects his system as being a manual, low-discretion trading mechanism that needs a bit of practice but DOES work.
I had been testing it earlier trying to catch it out and thought I was being a clever-clogs trying to outsmart the signals it gave (on the basis that historically a pair was less profitable than another... that the Buy signal was touching the Support line and only a madman would Buy).
Of course some trades lose. But I learnt to not second-guess the system but in my losing trades start analysing why I was losing. Lo and behold, there I was - entering trades too late, making up the stop-loss as I went along, not really paying attention to the very different characters of the pair.
I'm still trading on demo but seeing more consistent profits while studying, recording every transaction. I have to say as well that the ebooks the author provides as part of the package go a long way in cementing the right approach.
Nowadays, using only Traders Dynamic Index to confirm the signal on the 4H chart, I trade and learn. I have a nice clean and clear Metatrader screen that I use to plug holes in my knowledge, such as looking for hidden divergence, candle action and the rest.
For what it's worth, thanks to Ingot for this thread as essentially he has drawn everyone's attention to (and I agree with this): a little-known commercially available strategy that does the business. Good luck in your trading all and look forward to always learning more!)

 

[NVP]

Hey Ingot54

Hey Ingot54 !

i'll have a look through this thread when i get time and see if I can add anything constructively to the party......I have bought a few systems in the past as part of my trading education and find I outgrow them fairly quickly (boredom?) albeit some still deliver more profits probably than I ever will due to my Human frailities !

Neil