The last two days surely have been profitable as we've been staring down the face of the world's most obvious Eur/USD long opportunity.. However, now things are cloudy as hell. Obviously risk appetite has returned for US investors, but I believe that they are short-term profit seekers.
I went long as well and stand a bit amazed that we reached 1.418. Technically we shouldn't be here and the Euro is horrifically overbought. At the same time we have a prominent German ex-finance minister telling the current finance minister to come clean about the state of the economy in 2009 which could be "the greatest financial crisis on the history of the German Republic" with as much as -6% GDP growth, yet the Euro is bought like hotcakes.
Of course then we've smashed through the long-term SMA and far exceeded bands resistance. So I should long Euros right?? Hell no..
I have ultimate faith in our fine, fine, brilliant leaders and will long USD as a result.. No, sorry I don't, but I do have faith in the nightmare known as the credit crunch. It is the gift which will continue to give far beyond mid-December 2008.
I'm actively shorting Euros with 2 lots at 1.413 with stops at 1.43 and will double-down with 4 or more lots if stopped out. I'm willing to bet the farm with 8 lots at 1.45..
This Euro strength is ridiculous and mathematically and tehcnically makes little sense.. The market will correct this..