Forex Day Trader's Thread

Looks like somebody from the ECB said something the market didn't like.. my buy and hold EUR/USD trade got picked up..
 
despite a huge stock rally there seems to be universal USD strength.. makes no sense.


I'm picking up Cable long at 1.434 the 38.2 fib level
 
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Long

Pippy5000 said:
WATCH OUT! New plan to buy toxic debt has S&P futures way up.. We could see a really huge stock rally tomorrow (Monday) and even though GBP is struggling the USD weakness could be overwhelming.. I would go long EUR/USD ..
Click to expand...

i would say.. "if you say huge stock rally, i would prefer to LONG that " ;)
 
The close above 800 in the S&P is extremely bullish.. It had some trouble getting over 800 and then in the last hour said "TAKE THAT" and closed at a few ticks shy of 823 ..

I still don't know what was causing the USD strength early in the day.. Oil was up 3%, equities through the roof.. Should have been huge USD weakness.

Oh well my buy and hold trade at 1.352 is triggered and profit is locked in ;)

MY GOD I'M ON A ROLL :clap:

I'm going to drink a bunch of red bulls and stay up for the Japanese session.. I'll post what I see happening for more predictions about what will happen in the USA Tuesday.

We have Bernanke testifying about AIG at 14:00 GMT as well..
 
Technical

Pippy5000 said:
The close above 800 in the S&P is extremely bullish.. It had some trouble getting over 800 and then in the last hour said "TAKE THAT" and closed at a few ticks shy of 823 ..

I still don't know what was causing the USD strength early in the day.. Oil was up 3%, equities through the roof.. Should have been huge USD weakness.

Oh well my buy and hold trade at 1.352 is triggered and profit is locked in ;)

MY GOD I'M ON A ROLL :clap:

I'm going to drink a bunch of red bulls and stay up for the Japanese session.. I'll post what I see happening for more predictions about what will happen in the USA Tuesday.

We have Bernanke testifying about AIG at 14:00 GMT as well..
Click to expand...

USD is oversold, thats why it looks like stable..
 
It's related to GBP/JPY .. The Japanese are dumping Yen like crazy.. There's MAJOR resistance in Cable at 1.47 .. I'm going to get in a small short there ..
 
I'm not taking USD positions because I don't think the market is quite sure whether to short USD or long USD due to the market rally.. i.e. "should we go with the best performing horse or go with risk?"

sidelined..
 
Cable broke major resistance last night and has potential to see 1.498 now

I'm actually long and up 60 pips now
 
looks like stock market will correct the recent advances from the bottoms, but i think it will only be a correction
 
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Euro will head south tonight! Euro couldn't even manage a decent rally even during one of the biggest market rallies in history.. Very disappointing performance.. Everyone knows it and tonight everyone will sell it.. SHORT EURO.. SHORT EURO..SHORT EURO

spot 1.347

I'm -7 GMT by the way so tonight would be the Japanese and European mornings.. US might bring it back up again..
 
Last edited:
Pippy5000 said:
OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

Euro will head south tonight! Euro couldn't even manage a decent rally even during one of the biggest market rallies in history.. Very disappointing performance.. Everyone knows it and tonight everyone will sell it.. SHORT EURO.. SHORT EURO..SHORT EURO

spot 1.347

I'm -7 GMT by the way so tonight would be the Japanese and European mornings.. US might bring it back up again..
Click to expand...

apparently so. sell strength. bottoms up!
 
I got 60 pips shorting Euro last night.. was hoping for more.. Looks like the US brought it back up to short once again.. too choppy to deal with right now though..
 
Those Geithner comments really screwed the market up.. now we're stuck halfway between where we were and where the spike stopped with no one knowing which way to go.. My bias is still down on Euro..
 
Range trading indecision during the Japanese session.. It's lunchtime for the Japanese.. just choppiness. I've been playing a little game going long and short for a few pips on the choppiness. It's been a lot of fun because the moving averages have been DEAD ON! Touch the moving average on the hourlies and EUR/JPY jumps 30 pips in 2 minutes. Remember this about EUR/JPY as it is golden information during indecisive times.

Everyone is gun-shy after that hideous USD dump on misunderstood Geithner comments earlier today. I have entry orders with wide stops on EUR/JPY and EUR/USD, but the price action is just indecisive choppiness. Might be some illiquid shenanigans later because almost no one has active positions, but the strategy for now will be small leverage, wide parameter, range trades on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY using 23.6 fib levels as entry points long and short (entries at 23.8). There's nothing in the fundamentals grabbing me tonight.
 
Cable just broke a head and shoulders pattern and could be headed south .. I'm short looking to 1.425
 
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