Forex Analysis and Forecast by J. Halprid

[GFSignals]

December 7, 2009

The behaviour of traders and Forex Signals providers during the previous week was quite active, but the major attention of all Forex market participants was drawn to Friday release of change in nonfarm payrolls in the USA. That news turned out to be quite positive and due to that the American currency continued its recovery very successfully. EUR/USD and GBP/USD reached the week’s minimum levels. Some Forex signals developers:smart: are also thinking that it is the sign the start of American economy’s development and are expecting the heads of US FRS to increase the interest rate because of that fact.

That week Forex specialists are predicting the continuation of USD and the American economics recovery. Taking into consideration the tendencies of the previous days it can be admitted that the positions the American currency can turn out to be quite strong and suppress its rivals pretty active. At this rate the great number of Forex signals providers:smart: should be buying USD in the nearest future.

Speaking about main news it can be said, that the interest rates of three counties’ central banks will be released this week: December 8 – Canada, December 9 – New Zealand, December 10 – England. All the rates are expected to remain at the same level (CCB - 0.25%, NZCB - 2.5% and BOE - 0.5%). And besides that on December 11 the Forex data on manufacturing production in Germany and Great Britain will come out. The information on retail sales and trade balance in the USA is also expected by Forex signals providers.

Due to that EUR/USD can continue going down to the level of about 1.4600 and GBP/USD is likely to reach the minimum of about 1.6300 or even go lower.

 

[GFSignals]

December 8, 2009

On the first trading day of the week, according to the prediction, USD was to suppress its European rivals quite actively. At first EUR/USD and GBP/USD went a little bit up under the influence of the first news from USA, but then, after the speeches of Mr. Trichet and Mr. Bernanke USD pushed GBP and Euro down.

At this rate GBP/USD was trying to break through the level of 1.6500, but then it fell down very quickly and reached the minimum of 1.6312. After that the British pound was to do some recovery and the pair finished the trading day at 1.6450. EUR/USD wasn’t moving so actively, but it also managed to fell down and end trading day at about 1.4827.:cheesy::clap:

On Tuesday, December 08, 2009, all the trading market participants will be waiting not only for the released of interest rates by Canadian central bank, but the British info on industrial and manufacturing production. That Forex news can be another factor to push the British currency down against Euro and USD.:whistling

At this rate, EUR/USD is likely to continue moving down to the Forex level of 1.4750, having broken through support level of 1.4800. GBP/USD might also go down to about 1.6300 under the influence of news.:!::-0yawn:

 

[GFSignals]

December 9, 2009

On Tuesday, just according to the Forex predictions, USD continued its recovery against its main rivals. Both GBP and Euro were under the pressure of negative trading news from Europe and positive news from the USA. The head of US FRS Mr. Bernanke said that the interest rate isn’t likely to be increased before the second half of 2010. At the same time the negative information on production in Euro-zone and Great Britain was to push the Forex rivals of USD down. The continuing decrease of production in Europe shows, that the recovery of European economics will take quite a period of time an won’t be an easy thing.

Due to that EUR/USD was just falling down during all Forex trading day and even managed to reach the minimum of 1.4680, but finally rose up a little bit and finished the day at the level of 1.4703. GBP/USD also went down without any attempts to rise and finished the trading day just at 1.6267.

On Wednesday, December 09, 2009, some trading Forex investors can start buying high-yield currencies, but that isn’t likely to save the British pound and Euro from losing positions to USD. The main news to be taken into consideration is, of course, the release of trade balance in Great Britain and data on USA wholesale inventories. At this rate EUR/USD will be moving around 1.4700 and even may rise a little bit and GBP/USD might fall Forex down to about 1.6150 and then make some slight recovery – return to 1.6250.

 

[GFSignals]

December 10, 2009

On Wednesday the behaviour of all Forex market participants wasn’t extremely active, but the trading turned out to be pretty unpredictable, as the price ranges were quite wide. At the same time it can be admitted that the recovery of USD is likely to have a nice continuation. Euro and the British pound are still under the pressure of negative Forex trading news from Europe. At the same time USD can be pushed up by positive releases in the United States.

According to that fact, at first EUR/USD fell down to the day’s Forum minimum of 1.4672, but then the trend turned round and went up, having reached the maximum of the day situated at the point of 1.4781. By the end of the trading day the price established at 1.4738. GBP/USD was to show just the same: at first it fell down then go up and finally the trading market day was finished just near the open point – 1.6287.

Thursday, December 10, 2009 is marked by the release of interest rates of Bank of England:smart: and Swiss National Bank:smart:. According to trading predictions the rates are to remain without any changes (0.25% for SNB and 0.5% for BoE). But the market participants will be also waiting for the Forex news on trade balance and initial jobless claims in the USA.

Due to that, EUR/USD might go down again and be trading around 1.4650. At the same time GBP/USD is likely to continue falling as well and even reach the point of about 1.6170.

 

[GFSignals]

December 11, 2009

Trading on Thursday turned out to be just like on the previous day – on Wednesday. As it had been predicted, all the market participants, including investors, traders and Forex trading signals providers were pretty active at first about selling USD and then buying it. But one of the most interesting things was, of course, the reaction of many Forex trading signals system developers to the Forex news from the USA. The deficit of US trade balance reduced just like the number of continuing jobless claims, which was the factor to drive the market a little bit crazy – some participants started investing into high-yield currencies, the other, vice versa, decided to support the recovery of US economics and buy USD. The improvements on the American labour market may lead to FRS increase the interest rate, but not very soon.

Due to that, Euro and the British pound were just to repeat their Wednesday’s rivalry against USD. So, EUR/USD at first went down to the level of 1.4682, then began to rise up and reached the day’s maximum of 1.4759, but finished the trading day at 1.4731. GBP/USD was to be just in the same situation, the only difference is in numbers: the price fell to 1.6213, then went up to 1.6345 and the trading day was finished at about 1.6282. So, we’ve seen 2 crosses.whistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistling

On Friday, December 11, 2009, the main news to be taken into consideration by Forex trading signals developers, traders and investors is the release of US business inventories and advance retail sales. Another important info is to come from The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland: Producers Price Index input, Producers Price Index output and the speech of Mr. Trichet in London.

Due to that the providers of Forex trading signals and other investors can expect the slight fall down of high-yield currencies against USD. For example, EUR/USD may go down a little bit and even just be trading around 1.4700. At the same time GBP/USD might go up a little bit to the level of about 1.6330.

 

[GFSignals]

December 14, 2009

The previous trading week was quite active and can be called the week of USD recovery. The behaviour of Forex Signals system developers, traders and different investors was mainly determined by the market news from Europe. Frankly speaking, that’s just the logical tendency. If the American currency had fallen down more, the world economics would have been completely ruined. But after the release of US change in nonfarm payrolls and other Forex news on unemployment, which showed unpredictably good tendency, USD began to suppress its rivals very actively.

Due to that it’s quite obvious, that the American currency is likely to continue rising up and getting back to its positions. Such tendencies were also told about by Mr. Trichet and Mr. Bernanke, which made the investors, Forex signals developers and traders start to sell high-yield:whistling currencies and buy USD.

This week quite an amount of important Forex news is to be released in all parts of the world. For example, the news, that can influence the behaviour of Forex signals providers, traders and investors are USA Current Account Balance, Housing Starts, Building Permits and Initial Jobless Claims. The Following data is to be released in Europe: ECB Current Account SA, info on Trade Balance, Consumer Price Index, changes in Employment and Industry Production. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will release the news on Consumer and retail price indices, Claimant count rate, info on retail sales and M4 Money supply. But the main news awaited by all traders, investors and Forex signals providers all over the world is, of course, the FOMC release of interest rate. This information will turn the market upside down, if the rate is changed. So, the trading week is likely to be quite active.

On Monday, December 14, 2009 there’s not a lot of info to be released. Only the information on Employment and Industrial production in Euro-zone has some importance for Forex signals providers and investors. The other regions will remain silent. Due to that, EUR/USD is likely to rise up a little bit and be trading between 1.4650-1.4700. GBP/USD may also go up and even reach the point of 1.6330, but then fall down and be trading around 1.6200.

 

[GFSignals]

December 15, 2009

On Monday – the first day of the trading Forex week, all the market was influenced by the news from the United Arab Emirates. The authorities of Abu-dabi decided to provide help for the sum of $10 billion to the Dubai World fund, which calmed down the Forex investors and other market participants and made some of them buy high-yield currencies.

Due to that a small Forex roll down of USD could be observed yesterday. For example, EUR/USD was to rise up and the most part of the day was trading around 1.4650, but managed to reach the day’s maximum of 1.4684. GBP/USD was going up faster and even got to the maximum point of the trading day on the market Forex, which was 1.6324. After a bit of correction and another rise, the day was finished at 1.6299.:clap::innocent:

On Tuesday, December 15, 2009, the Forex market participants all over the world will be expecting the news on consumer & retail price indices from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the German data from ZEW survey on economic sentiment, and finally the Empire Manufacturing index and data on industrial production in the United States.:-0:smart:

Due to that the fall down of the main market Forex rivals of USD is likely to continue. EUR/USD might fall down to the point of about 1.4550. At the same time GBP/USD may continue going down to the level of 1.6150.:?::!::clover:

 

[GFSignals]

December 16, 2009

On Tuesday the situation on Forex market was quite calm. Everything happened just according to the predictions – USD successfully continued growing up and the main trading rivals of the American currency fell down again even without serious attempts to change the situation. The news from Great Britain appeared to be quite positive:clap:, but even that was only to stop a little bit the fall down of GBP/USD. Most of the Forex trading market participants:smart: decided to stay aware from risk and not buy high-yield currencies.

Partially that was the result of news from Austria: the 6th largest bank of the country - Hypo Group Alpe Adria was nationalised. And the Austrian government is looking forward to nationalising another bank - Oesterreichische Volksbanken, which is the 4th biggest in the country. Due to that USD continued moving up. EUR/USD fell down to 1.4535 and GBP/USD finished the trading day at 1.6266.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009 is likely to be one of the most active and important days in the month. The point is not in only great amount of Forex news from different parts of the world to be released, but in the FOMC interest rate, which is to be announced today, which will be waited for by all trading market participants:smart: and which can turn the situation on the market upside down if is changed. Besides that, the precise Forex data claimant count rate of Great Britain, Euro-zone and US consumer price index, US current account balance, housing starts and building permits are to be released today.:whistling

At this rate, EUR/USD is likely to rise a little bit and the fall down again, it’s expected to be trading around the point of 1.4550. At the same time GBP/USD might go down and by the end of the Forex day set at about 1.6230.

 

[GFSignals]

December 17, 2009

Forex trading on Wednesday was pretty active because of the big amount of news released that day. As it has been predicted, there were no great changes in prices by the end of the trading day, but all the markets participants tended to behave quite lively. The point was, that almost everyone, who has somehow to deal with finance was waiting for the FOMC announcement of interest rate, which remained the same (0.25%) according to the predictions.

Due to that EUR/USD was to rise up first, but after the rate announcement it fell down to 1.4500, having finished the Forex trading day at 1.4529. GBP/USD managed to rise up and even reached the day’s maximum of 1.6410, but after that it rolled down a little bit and the trading day was finished at 1.6326.

Thursday, December 17, 2009 is likely to be pretty active trading day in spite of little news released. The only important information is to come from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland:clover: (data on retail sales and BoE announce of inflation rate) and The United States:smart: (initial jobless claims & Philadelphia Fed. index).

According to that, EUR/USD must fall down very quickly, but the European currency can make some attempts of correction. The minimum level is expected to be about 1.4380, and the trading day is likely to be finished at 1.4410. At the same time GBP/USD might also go down and reach the point of 1.6150.

 

[GFSignals]

December 21, 2009

Last trading week can be called “USD domination week” because the American currency managed to be suppressing its main rivals all the time. For example, EUR/USD appeared to be a pair to fall down pretty quickly and pretty low – Forex trading on Friday stopped at 1.4394 (on Monday it was 1.4611). GBP/USD was also to fall down and reach the point of 1.6118.

That weeks appears to be one day shorter than usual, because in many countries Christmas will be celebrated and due to that the market will be closed. So, the liquidity won’t be really high. The last trading week showed that the market participants (including Forex Signals providers, investors and usual traders) are not really eager to buy high-yield currencies, which made USD stronger. At the same time the releases by different rating agencies about the development of European economics made the situation for the rivals of USD even darker. Due to that the Forex domination of the American currency is likely to continue, which is also expected by Forex signals developers and alternative investors:whistling.

Speaking about Forex news that week, it can be admitted that there won’t be really much data to be released. The information on GDP, current account and will be released in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the news on new and existing home sales, durable goods orders and initial jobless claims. But the main news awaited by all Forex signals givers and other market participants is, of course, Bank of England Release Minutes of Interest Rate Decision. Frankly speaking, that information can turn the market inside out in a second, So, be careful on Wednesday.

Due to that EUR/USD is likely to continue going down and fall to about 1.4150. At the same time in the first part of the Forex trading week some correction can be expected by Forex signals providers, traders and investors al over the world. GBP/USD might fall down as week and even break through the important level of 1.6000.

 

[GFSignals]

December 23, 2009

On Tuesday in spite of so volatile Forex market the trading appeared to be pretty active. Almost all market participants were not ready to buy high-yield currencies and due to that USD continued going upwards. That tendency was supported by the news from the USA: the number of existing home sales grew for 7.4% in comparison with October. At this rate GBP/USD fell down to the level of 1.5960, having broken through the important psychological level of 1.6000. EUR/USD continued going downwards and finished the trading day at the point of 1.4252.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009 appears to be quite an important day for all Forex trading market participants. Everybody will be waiting for the Bank of England Release Minutes of Interest Rate Decision. If the rate is changed, the market can be turned inside out in a second. Due to that the news on new home sales and PCE core doesn’t seem to be so important. At this rate it could be admitted that EUR/USD is likely to fall down to the point of about 1.4200 and GBP/USD might go down as well and finish the trading around 1.5870.whistling:whistling

 

[GFSignals]

December 24, 2009

On Wednesday the growth of USD was stopped a little bit by the influence of Forex news, which made the rivals of the American currency to go upwards and try to make some kind of recovery. At the beginning of the American trading session USD started falling down, but after the release of University of Michigan:smart: confidence index, which appeared to be worse than predicted, bucks continued Forex downward moving. EUR/USD managed to break through the level of 1.4300 and finish the trading day at 1.4328. GBP/USD wasn’t rising fast and after a couple of not successful attempts to go up, just finished the trading day near the open point – 1.5961.

On Thursday, December 24, 2009, there is a couple of important Forex news to be released, which can appear to be the reason for changing the situation on the trading market and making USD fall down a bit. The amount of economic news will be released in the United States: info on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims. Due to that, EUR/USD might be trading in the rage of 1.4300 – 1.4420 and GBP/USD is likely to rise to the level of about 1.6100.

 

[GFSignals]

December 28, 2009

The previous week wasn’t very active, just as it has been predicted before. The main reason for that was the fact, that many market participants (including successful Forex Signals providers) started their Christmas and New Year vacations. At this rate market wasn’t as volatile as 2 weeks ago. The main currency pairs were moving in the narrow channel without serious attempts to break through its borders.:innocent:

That week is expected just to repeat the situation once again. The point is, that just like the previous one, it’s one day shorter than usual and even not so reach in Forex news. The market participants (traders, Forex signals developers, investors, etc.), who didn’t start their vacations last week, are likely to do it now, which can also have an impact on the situation on the trading market. The latest news on the new home sales in the USA showed the tendency of the American economics to improving, which made USD to suppress its rivals. Due to that lots of Forex signals givers started to buy USD pretty active, but that really hasn’t big influence on the entire situation.:|

What concerns news that week, it’s necessary to admit, that there won’t be much to release and it’s not likely to be the factor to influence the market very much. The only important releases to be taken into consideration by Forex signals providers, investors and other trading market participants are: consumer price index in Germany, Euro-zone M3 money supply, initial jobless claims and a number of indices in the USA. Due to that EUR/USD is likely to go down to the level of about 1.4200 and GBP/USD might fall even to the point of 1.5800.

 

[GFSignals]

December 29, 2009

Just as has been predicted before, the beginning of the trading week wasn’t active at all. The market was pretty slow, which was the result of holidays in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Canada and Australia. At this rate the market in those countries was closed. So, not all market participants, especially Forex Signals providers, had tendency to buying high-yield currencies. Due to that the main currency pair remained at the level they began the trading day. For example, EUR/USD tried to go up and fall down, but finally stopped just at the start point of 1.4372. The attempts of GBP/USD to change the situation radically failed as well: GBP pushed USD a little bit and reached the level of 1.6001, which turned out to be a little surprise to Forex signals developers and market traders.

On Tuesday, December 29, 2009, the Forex trading isn’t likely to be pretty active as well. Mostly market participant will be waiting for the news releases of consumer price index in Germany and consumer confidence indicator in the USA. Due to that not great number of Forex signals is expected to be launched. EUR/USD is likely to be trading around the point of 1.4385, but it may rise a very little bit. GBP/USD might even go up to the level of about 1.6050.

 

[GFSignals]

December 30, 2009

Yesterday the trading on the Forex market! didn’t appear to be pretty active. The market participants (even Forex signals providers) weren’t eager to risk and kept silent most of the time. But there was one “bump” in the middle of the trading day. The growth of European stock indices in combination with positive news on consumer price index in Germany made EUR suppress its main rivals – GBP & USD. Due to that EUR/USD managed to reach the point of 1.4457 in the first part of the Forex trading day. But after that the American currency managed to recover a bit and the day was finished at about 1.4350. At the same time the Forex position of the British pound wasn’t really good. GBP/USD fell down to the level of 1.5898 even without serious attempts of going up.

At this rate the trading on Wednesday, December 30, 2009, isn’t expected to be fast and active. It may be just the same situation as on Tuesday. The big “jumps” of the trends can occur, but the total condition of the Forex market won’t change really. In fact, the market participants will be waiting for the Forex releases of Euro-zone M3 money supply and Chicago purchasing manager index. Due to that EUR/USD might be trading around the point of 1.4350 and GBP/USD is likely to finish the Forex day not far from the point of 1.5900.

 

[GFSignals]

On Tuesday, January 6, 2010, the trading on Forex market appeared to be pretty messy. All market participants including Forex signals providers and other traders, were trying to follow the entire tendencies. The rivals of USD were suppressed once again because of the good economic news from the United States of America and support from Forex Signals system developers. It appeared that the economics of the USA continued its recovery, which helped USD to strengthen its position on the Forex market and among the most authoritative Forex signals providers. At this rate EUR/USD finished the trading day at the level of about 1.4350 and GBP/USD managed to fall down lower than important psychological level 1.6000.:clap::clap::clap::clap:

Due to that today, on Wednesday, the American currency (USD for short) is likely to push its main rivals – GBP and EUR down at least a little bit with the help of positive Forex news once again. All market users and even Forex signals forecasters are expecting big moving in the price ranges. It’s likely that Wednesday will be pretty crazy day. At first EUR/USD and GBP/USD are expected to fall down to 1.4281 and 1.5943 agreeably. But then Forex signals users and providers are likely to observe a recovery. At this rate EUR/USD might finish the Forex trading day at about 1.4325 and GBP/USD can go rith to the level of 1.5990.:clover::clover::clover::clover::clover:

 

[GFSignals]

January 11, 2010

The previous week was the first trading week in 2010 year. Congratulations! But the trading was really very active. All market participants (even not intensive traders and Forex signals providers) were taking pretty active part in trading throughout the whole week. Due to that the situation on the Forex marke:innocent: was quite unpredictable and interesting.

But the main event, which was awaited by almost everybody, connected with Forex market in some way: brokers, traders, investors, Forex signals developers, was the release of US nonfarm payrolls. And, as it had been predicted, that information turned the market upside down. It was predicted, that there wouldn’t be big changes, but the number of unemployed turned out to increase to 85K! And that was the real tragedy for the American currency. USD was suppressed by its rivals in a moment. EUR/USD rose up to the maximum level of 1.4438 and GBP/USD reached 1.6108, having gone up for 140 pips! So, it could be said, that the end of the trading week was quite dramatic for some Forex signals providers:smart: and traders all over the world.

That week is also rich in different Forex news, which is pretty good for active Forex signals system developers and market investors. For example, the news on wholesale and customer price indices will be released in Germany. In the USA and UK the new on trade balance will come out. Besides that, the important data on manufacturing and inductrial production are going to be published in the United Kingdom and Euro-zone. ECB will announce its interest rate, Mr. Trichet will speak on monthly news conference. In the USA the unemployment rate is also to be released.

Speaking about the main currency pairs, it could be admitted, that on Monday, January 11, 2010, the situation can be pretty interesting for every Forex signals developer and trader. EUR/USD can rise up to 1.4531, but then roll down a bit. At the same time GBP/USD is likely to continue rising up and might manage to reach the point of 1.6200.

 

[GFSignals]

January 12, 2010

On Monday the American currency didn’t manage to recover from the defeat it got on Friday because of the negative data on nonfarm payrolls. So, USD was suppressed by its main rivals once again. The attention of the Forex market participants (even signals providers) was drawn mainly to the China, which showed the enormous speed of economic growth. Some market Forex investors and analytics thought it to be another sign of the world economic beginning to recover from the crisis.

At the same time it seems that USA can be the country to recover later than others, which is not very good for the American currency - USD. In addition the head of Saint-Luis FRS J. Bullard claimed that the interest rate will remain at the same level “for quite long time”. That also made all Forex market participants interested in buying high-yield currencies.

Due to that, EUR/USD was managed to reach 2-week’s maximum of 1.4555, having broken through the resistance level of 1.4500. GBP/USD rose up to 1.6192, but then rolled back to about 1.6100.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010, doesn’t seem to be a day, rich in economic important Forex news. The news on visible trade balance will come from Great Britain and the data on trade balance gonna be released in the United States. Besides that the head of Dallas FRS R. Fisher gonna make his speech, which should also be paid attention by market Forex participants. At this rate, it can be admitted, that EUR/USD is likely to fall down to the level of about 1.4430 and GBP/USD can go to the point of 1.5950.

 

[GFSignals]

January 13, 2010

On Tuesday trading on the Forex market turned out to be not very active because of lack of important Forex news. Some releases were made in China, which influenced the trading during Asian session. At this rate EUR/USD fell down to the day’s minimum of 1.4452 and GBP/USD got lower than 1.6100.

During the American session the Forex trading became more intensive because of the news, that US trade balance reduced for $36.4 billion. At the same time the data on US crude oil inventories was quite positive, which also had an impact on the behaviour of most Forex market participants, especially Forex signals providers. So, EUR/USD rose up a little bit and finished the trading day at the market point of 1.4490 and GBP/USD closed a little bit below 1.6150.

On Wednesday, January 13, 2010, there will be some interesting news released in Europe. For example, the data on Germany’s GBP and the info about British industrial and manufacturing production will come out. In the USA the monthly budget statement gonna be published today. And the speeches of the leading economists all over the world can also have some influence on the situation on the Forex market.

Due to that it’s necessary to admit, that EUR/USD might go up to the point of about 1.4550 and GBP/USD is likely to continue uprising and reach the level of about 1.6240.

 

[GFSignals]

January 15, 2010

On Thursday the situation on the Forex market was pretty quiet. There was no big changes in price ranges, which showed, that market participants and Forex Signals providers were not ready to risk. Frankly speaking, at the moment high-yield currencies are losing their positions because the world economics doesn’t seem to be really stable now.

The economic news from the United States and Euro-zone didn’t show any great changes. Everything was almost according to the predictions, which made the Forex market very quiet and calm. At this rate the only thing to catch the attention of market participants and signals users was the Forex news from Greece, where the economic situation is awful. Gravely speaking, the EU government is worried about the Greek economics. At the moment the budgeted deficit in Greece is more than 4 times larger, than it’s required in the EU (12.7% vs 3%). But even that didn’t make the Forex market participants active.

At this rate EUR/USD was trading around the starting point of 1.4498 and finished the trading day almost there. GBP/USD rose up a little bit and managed to reach 1.6335.

Friday, January 15, 2010, otherwise, is expected to be pretty active day on the Forex market in spite of poor and not important Forex news. The only data to be released that day is Euro-zone CPI & trade balance and Empire manufacturing index from the United States. Due to that EUR/USD is likely to fall and even break through the level of 1.4400. GBP/USD may also go down and finish the trading day at about 1.6250.