frontier2002
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Honestly i failed the GBP-JPY due to extreme volatility
Yep exactly the reason I stay away from that one.
Volatility is great of you're on the right side but can be a killer if not
Hi, Donkers, I like to keep it as simple as possible to be honest. I've tried many indicators and found they sometimes work, but you can't rely on them solely to trade. Price action is key. I subscribe to the 'no indicators brigade!'
Well the only indicator (if you can call it one), I have is a daily ATR to give me an expected range.
I will draw fibs on the hourly chart, normally the previous day swing high to low, and then often also a fib of the last swing move. I may also have a larger fib from the hourly or even daily. I then use these levels to base my trades around. Normally a break of a 38% fib will see price move to the 50% etc.
My latest method is to try and jump on one of these moves, and bag a few pips quickly whilst getting my stop loss to breakeven as quickly as possible. As you study the price action around fibs you will often see that price does move pretty quick once a level breaks.
In terms of other sup/res I will normally mark the prev days high and low, and also the daily pivot level. You might also see a trend line or 2 if obvious points exist. Remember a trend line is only a true trend line which you can believe in when it is touched at least 3 times.
So as you will see from my charts I try and keep them as simple as possible
So in brief, price action - is the price forming higher high, higher lows (uptrend), or is it forming lower highs, lower lows (down trend), or is it consolidating.
Then play the moves between the fib levels.
I started my blog a week ago to log all my thoughts and trades. I hope to keep this going and in 6 months time to be able to see how far I have come
Thanks Andy. So it's mainly fibs and price action. I too, don't (yet) feel hugely attracted to oscillators etc.
Yes, it is amasing how price/traders appears to react to fib levels.
Do you use different timeframes too? I notice on eurusd daily, that if you plot the fib on this leg down (from 14864 to 12333) that todays candle currently looks like a pinnichio bar hanging man thingy, that shot up and appeared to bounce back off the 38.2% level. Have I got that right? So maybe that could turn out to be a bearish sign to consider for the morrow, eh?
All the best.
Morning Andy. Good luck today.
Looks like it's been trading sideways for the last couple hours. I don't know, but I wondered if it'd be worth waiting for a breakdown - say below 12668 - before getting in. Or waiting for the first pullback after that? I wonder if there are some sell orders down there too, that should help it along should they get hit? Would that be a higher probablitity trade, but with fewer pips that if buying at the top of the range. cheers.
Looks like it's been trading sideways for the last couple hours. I don't know, but I wondered if it'd be worth waiting for a breakdown - say below 12668 - before getting in. Or waiting for the first pullback after that? I wonder if there are some sell orders down there too, that should help it along should they get hit? Would that be a higher probablitity trade, but with fewer pips that if buying at the top of the range. cheers.
That would be a safer entry, however I like to wait for a break, then a pullback to retest the 668 level from below. Then at that point enter short.
looks like it's rallied a bit since then, and now has support above 725. So i wonder if a break below that would signal a good short, with an initial target of around 668 and hopefully a break below it and a continuation of the daily move down. Also, as it happens, I notice that a break below that level would also satisfy the 3 ducks conditions - price below 60ma on 4 hour, 1 hour and 5 min timeframes, together with a break of the recent low.
Cheers I'm doing it to try and avoid me ignoring some of my bad trades and for me to really see if I have got what it takes. Very early days yet
Windowsill
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As price movement is generally random, why not just have a stop at the point where you would wish to exit. This gives the chance of the price rising rather than cutting the trade and thats that.
