Best Thread Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

[firewalker99]

3:2 is correct.
Just the next chart.

Ok, so another entry at 1549.25, target of 1546.25 which has been hit (cfr. chart after that one) so profit of 3 points.

In total we now have 3 winning trades, each +3 points, 4 losing trades each -1 point.
* P/L = 9:4
* W/L = 3:4
* biggest loss remains 1 point
* max number of successive losses remains 2
Net result of 5 points.

 

[dbphoenix]

Ok, so another entry at 1549.25, target of 1546.25 which has been hit (cfr. chart after that one) so profit of 3 points.

In total we now have 3 winning trades, each +3 points, 4 losing trades each -1 point.
* P/L = 9:4
* W/L = 3:4
* biggest loss remains 1 point
* max number of successive losses remains 2
Net result of 5 points.

Don't worry about your net during the testing phase.

Now do the next chart under all the same conditions.

 

[firewalker99]

Don't worry about your net during the testing phase.

Now do the next chart under all the same conditions.

Ok, here we go:
one entry short, and one entry long
- Short 1547.25, but stop hit at 1548.25 -> -1 point
- Long 1548.75, but stop hit at 1547.75 -> -1 point
- Short right at the edge of the chart, again at 1547.25, target hit (see next chart) at 1544.25 -> +3

Summary uptil now:
* P/L = 12:6
* W/L = 4:6
* biggest loss remains 1 point
* max number of successive losses remains 2

 

[dbphoenix]

Ok, here we go:
one entry short, and one entry long
- Short 1547.25, but stop hit at 1548.25 -> -1 point
- Long 1548.75, but stop hit at 1547.75 -> -1 point
- Short right at the edge of the chart, again at 1547.25, target hit (see next chart) at 1544.25 -> +3

Summary uptil now:
* P/L = 12:6
* W/L = 4:5
* biggest loss remains 1 point
* max number of successive losses remains 2

Assuming that your second short will be added to the tally later, move on to the next chart.

Double-check your figures throughout. It's easier than doing it all over again.

 

[firewalker99]

Assuming that your second short will be added to the tally later, move on to the next chart. Double-check your figures throughout. It's easier than doing it all over again.

Not sure if you wanted me to continue with all the remaining charts, but I decided to do them anyway as an exercise. If you were planning something else, or you had something else in mind sorry I didn't mean to get ahead of things but seemed like a good exercise. But I'm willing to go on with whatever you think is suitable.

Intraday Chart 6
S 1543.25, target not reached, stop hit at 1544.25 = -1 pt
L 1544.75, stop hit but target almost scratched = -1pt
L 1546.75, stop hit at next chart= -1pt

Summary up till now:
* P/L = 12:9
* W/L = 4:9
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 3

 

[firewalker99]

Intraday Chart 7

S 1545.25, stop hit at 1546.25 = -1pt
L 1546.75, stop hit at 1545.75 = -1pt
S 1545.25, target hit at 1542.25 (next chart) = +3pt

Summary up till now:
* P/L = 15:11
* W/L = 5:11
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

 

[firewalker99]

Intraday Chart 8

No breakthroughs on the S/R lines marked before.
After revision, one breakthrough at 1541.25:

S 1540.50, target hit at 1537.5 (see next chart) = +3pt

Summary up till now:
* P/L = 18:11
* W/L = 6:11
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

 

[firewalker99]

Intraday Chart 9

S 1537.25, target hit at 1534.25 = +3pt
S 1533.25, target hit at 1530.25 = +3pt

Summary up till now:
* P/L = 24:11
* W/L = 8:11
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

 

[firewalker99]

Intraday Chart 10 (last one)

S 1529.00,just missed target at 1526 = -1pt (also this short depends on when the S line was drawn in real time...)
L 1530.50, target reached at 1533.50 = +3pt

Standings:
* P/L = 27:12
* W/L = 9:12
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5


Added 3 S/R lines, one at 1531.75, one at 1533.25 and one at 1534.50.
This means two entries more:
- L 1532.50, target was 1535.50 but that was the end of the day -> ?
- L 1534.00, stop hit at 1533.00 -> -1

Which makes up for these standings:
* P/L = 27:13
* W/L = 9:13
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

 

[dbphoenix]

No breakthroughs.

Actually, there is. If you'll refer to the next chart, there is a line underneath the previous swing low that was left off this chart. Therefore, you'll need to back up to this chart and recalculate your data.

 

[dbphoenix]

S 1529.00,just missed target at 1526 = -1pt (also this short depends on when the S line was drawn in real time...)
L 1530.50, target reached at 1533.50 = +3pt

Final standings:
* P/L = 24:12
* W/L = 8:11
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

There are several unmarked S/R levels on the upswing off the bottom to the close which aren't marked because I was done trading by then. For the purposes of the exercise, however, they can be drawn in and added to the trade record for the day. It's too early at this point to establish a rule that trading will end at a predetermined time.

 

[dbphoenix]

Not sure if you wanted me to continue with all the remaining charts, but I decided to do them anyway as an exercise. If you were planning something else, or you had something else in mind sorry I didn't mean to get ahead of things but seemed like a good exercise. But I'm willing to go on with whatever you think is suitable.

I did, preferably one by one. But this is only the beginning, unless you want to stop.

 

[firewalker99]

Actually, there is. If you'll refer to the next chart, there is a line underneath the previous swing low that was left off this chart. Therefore, you'll need to back up to this chart and recalculate your data.

I'm not clear about what you mean exactly. The previous swing low went to 1541.50 but there's no line underneath that at the successive chart? Are do you mean the line at 1540 further to the right?

 

[firewalker99]

I did, preferably one by one. But this is only the beginning, unless you want to stop.

You call the shots.

 

[dbphoenix]

There should be a line below the swing low at 12:11:18, at about 1541.25, though 1542 may also be used. The lengthy congestion here qualifies this as potential support.

 

[firewalker99]

There should be a line below the swing low at 12:11:18, at about 1541.25, though 1542 may also be used. The lengthy congestion here qualifies this as potential support.

Yes, at 1541.25 (or 1541.50 as I first said) that's the one I meant.
I've added a blue S/R line and recalculated, which made up for one extra breakthrough, recalculated the following results and changed them in the original posts instead of reposting them.

 

[dbphoenix]

Which makes up for these standings:
* P/L = 27:14
* W/L = 9:13
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

So these are your final figures?

 

[firewalker99]

So these are your final figures?

No, sorry mistake somewhere. Been staring to much at the screen apparently. Profit had to be 3x number of wins and loss had to be equal of course. Double checked everything and adjusted the error.

This should be correct:
* P/L = 27:13
* W/L = 9:13
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

 

[dbphoenix]

No, sorry mistake somewhere. Been staring to much at the screen apparently. Profit had to be 3x number of wins and loss had to be equal of course. Double checked everything and adjusted the error.

This should be correct:
* P/L = 27:13
* W/L = 9:13
* biggest loss stays fixed at 1 point
* max number of successive losses = 5

So your profits are twice your losses and you have a 41% win rate. Are you satisfied with that?

 

[firewalker99]

So your profits are twice your losses and you have a 41% win rate. Are you satisfied with that?

Considering the win rate to be less then 50%, no I would not be satisfied. That would result into a net +14 points but I'd be deducting spread costs, commission, slippage leaving little left. I made 22 trades (with one contract):

If I'm not mistaken 1 point = 20 USD => profits = 280 USD

-> Commissions: 4.80 USD per roundtrip => 22 x 4.80 = 105.60
-> Spread costs: 0.25 x 44 orders = 11.00 USD
-> Slippage, other costs... = 20.00 USD

The result would still be positive (let's assume 150 USD), but not satisfying.