exploding future market: NAVIGATION TECHNOLOGY (NVT & TA6)

Messages
4
Likes
0
hello world.

In my opinion there is a raising future market which has been undiscovered by investors yet:
navigation technology.
Nowadays only few luxury class cars come with navigation systems (less than 10% of new cars are sold with such systems) - in near future nav systems will be standard even on compact cars. Further nav systems will be integreated in mobile phones and PDAs and will help not only find a certain street as car nav systems do but will lead you to a certain building and will even know where to find certain house numbers. There are also a lot of so called location based services providing cell phone user local information, like where to find ATMs, restaurants, hotels etc., that will be standard tomorrow.
By the way the US already passed a law urging cell phone producers to integrate GPS receivers in all devices sold from 2007 on to be able to localize any emergency call, so every cell phone will have the hardware basis to be capable of nav applications.
Doubtless there is a huge future market growing. By the next years not only most new cars will have nav systems onboard, but everyone who is carrying a cell phone will carry a nav system in his pocket that will guide you through unknown cities tomorrow.

Besides the hardware basis for nav sytems, which is provided by the US government (GPS) and in future also by the European Union (Galileo) and the adequate user devices, which are produced by major companies you need digital maps to make the coordinates provided by GPS or Galileo visible.
GPS and Galileo only provide a signal allowing the user device calculating a position, but the user devices must know by themselves, where roads are, where they conduct to, where gas stations are etc.
These digital maps, which are highly expensive and time-consuming to create and as much to maintain come from only two companies:
Navteq (NVT) and TeleAtlas (TA6)

Their data is used in almost every scenario, where digital maps are needed. These two competitors provide data not only for all the car nav systems but also for all digital maps on the internet (see mapquest.com, map24.com), for cell phone operators for their location based services, for parcel services to calculate optimized routes etc.
Wherever you need digital maps you will need data from Navteq or TeleAtlas - only these two companies have acceptable complete databases of North America and Western Europe.

Since setting up such databases is highly expensive (approx. >$500) and time-consuming we don't have to expect any future competitor.
Allthough Navteq has currently a better market position due to it's better position in the US and globally in the OEM market, TeleAtlas is on it's way to gain market share. Aquiring the former number three in the digital map market GDT in 2nd quarter of this year has given TeleAtlas a good position to conquer North America.

However, there is a huge market growing and I would like to discuss TA6's and NVT's position more detailed with those, who are interested in this market segment.
 
Last edited:
I forgot to mention my personal prediction for NVT and TA6 for the next 2-3 years:
NVT $50-70 (current rate: $ 35,44)
TA6 € 30-60 (current rate: € 8,80) - on a German board (http://www.wallstreet-online.de/si/...&&iid=&woid=00019520&k=927101&cat=STK&spid=ws) some investor group owning more than 5% of TA6 expects a rate of € 100 by end of 2007!!!

TeleAtlas (TATL.DE / German Xetra market):
z


Navteq (NVT / NYSE):
z
 
Last edited:
@mayfly

regarding your first two links, I should have mentioned, that there are a lot of companies licensing Navteq's or TeleAtlas' map data - e.g. all TomTom products are based on TeleAtlas maps (see: http://www.tomtom.com/news/category.php?ID=4&NID=42&Language=4). If you take a closer look at those products you will find some clue like "powered by TeleAtlas".

your second link "mapminder.co.uk" is a product, that is based on Navteq's database (see http://www.mapminder.co.uk/Juicy/home.asp?Page=Reasons and scroll to bottom of the page)

geosoft.com also provides maps - but these are geological ones - they don't contain roads or any points of interest.
And this is the point: TeleAtlas and Navteq have hundreds of field engineers doing nothing but driving around the whole day and collecting data. They stop at every road crossing to gather all information about the site - they take the GPS position, enter every single lane and where it conducts to, they register one-ways etc. This is not just a question of technology but of capital, manpower and time! They have been working already for a decade on their maps and invested millions. And think of new roads that are built or road crossings being replaced by roundabouts - large cities have to be checked regularly for changes.
This piece of work can't be done by some small start-up with some freaky programmers - just imagine how many roads have to be digitalized.
And TeleAtlas and Navteq have even stepped further - they have even house numbers in large cities in their databases. TeleAtlas is also about to create photorealistic 3D models of larger cities - so in future your nav system won't show just a map with arrows, but a photorealistic 3D view of the road and the environment ahead. You will be able to recognize buildings and so on.

Maybe you will find some company providing digital road maps, but they will be not in the slightest that detailed as TeleAtlas' or Navteq's and there is no other company, that has detailed maps for such a huge area like North America and Europe.
By the way both are expanding to new markets like India and Asia.
 
Last edited:
The following translated report was broadcasted by German Moneytalk Radio (http://www.deraktionaer.de/Interview.html) on October, 15th, 2004:

stocks in focus: TeleAtlas

The market for navigation applications is just at the beginning of its' development and promises high growth rates. Turnover is primarily generated by automotive navigation, which is growing steadily due to the one-digit market penetration rates. The highest potential is adjudged to mobile navigation applications for PDAs and cell phones. The portion of GPS-enabled cell phones is expected to raise to 50% during the next 3 to 4 years, so that mobile navigation is seen as new killer application. Companies like T-Mobile, TomTom and Wayfinder have already positioned themselves in this ermerging market. The big profiteers of this development are the providers of digital maps, which are unalterable for navigation. Leading in Europe is the Dutch company TeleAtlas. With a turnover growth of 47% to € 32,5 mio. and for the first time a positive operative result of € 1,51 mio. in this year's second quarter TeleAtlas gave a foretaste of what is to come for investors in the next years. After TeleAtlas has been working with high efforts on digitally mapping the major regions of the world in the last years, time has come to bring in the harvest. Now the map database demands only maintenance and updates, so that costs are shrinking and future profits are to grow disproportionately. Profit is expected to jump to € 0,30 per share in 2005. In 2006 profit should be at € 0,61 per share. At first view the stock appears expensive, due to a price-earnings ratio of 29 in 2005. But this should be regarded in relation to the price-earnings ratio of 14 for 2006. Further three-digit growth rates and the assessment of the only competitor Navteq should be considered. Navteq is assessed with a price-earnings ratio of 42 for 2005 and 33 for 2006.

result
Based on price-turnover ratio and price-earnings ratio TeleAtlas is significantly cheaper than Navteq. The recent IPO of Navteq at the US-technology exchange Nasdaq and the high market value show, that navigation market is rated very high.
Against this background two-digit stock rates of TeleAtlas are likely by this year. Our short term rate target is € 11. The stop-loss-limit should be set at € 5,90.

TeleAtlas is traded at German XETRA market, Frankfurt stock exchange and futher German exchanges - symbol: TATL or 927101

German-speaking users can listen to the report online: http://www.deraktionaer.de/Interview.phtml?current=1160621 (requires Real Player)
 
Top