MajorDutch
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Hotch
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I've decided to be nice and put it into little bit sized chunks, that even the troglodytes on here should be able to understand if they put both their brain cells to work.
Le's say you have your basic pin bar setups, you target 2:1. Now you discover, that the pin bars with the wick >5x the body win 60% of the time, and the pin bars with 5x body legnth> wick >4x body length, win 50% of the time.
What new_trader and J16 is saying, is that you shouldn't trade the later pins, even though they provide positive expectancy. Why? I really can't say, perhaps new_trader will enlighten us.
Le's say you have your basic pin bar setups, you target 2:1. Now you discover, that the pin bars with the wick >5x the body win 60% of the time, and the pin bars with 5x body legnth> wick >4x body length, win 50% of the time.
What new_trader and J16 is saying, is that you shouldn't trade the later pins, even though they provide positive expectancy. Why? I really can't say, perhaps new_trader will enlighten us.
new_trader
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I wasn't talking about 'pins' or J16 (whoever s/he is). I was making a general comment about trading. I am a purely discretionary trader and I don't trade with charts so your bars and wicks ratio's are meaningless to me, therefore I can't comment, sorry.
DionysusToast
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But both will with 33% of the time, so it's a moot point.
Hotch
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That's precisely my point, but according to this A+ setup nonsense, you don't trade all your +ev setups.
there is merit to taking only the best setups and its most applicable to discretionary traders. if you are a tape reader i guess you could replicate an A+ setup with a scenario. If you are a fundamental trader an A+ setup would also be based on a scenario. this is an arbitrary topic although it should resonate with everyone at some level.
I think that's because most can't quantify their set-ups with precise expectancy numbers, due to their discretionary, and probably for 99% of these "traders", inconsistent approach.
new_trader
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People are rarely either a purely mechanical or purely discretionary traders. If you are a purely mechanical trader and have a system that you have back tested then you must take every single trade the system gives so the concept of grading setups (A+, A, B) doesn’t exist. The problems begin when traders add a discretionary element to their ‘mechanical’ systems. The majority who talk about ‘setups’ most likely test their systems under conditions that are completely different to which they will end up trading them which makes the whole % winners theory irrelevant, practice is almost never the same as theory. A perfect long setup that worked under back test conditions will suddenly be doubted because the trader heard some negative news on the TV and now wants to go short...or the less than perfect setup will be taken because the trader has been sat at his desk for 7 hours and feels the need to get busy...or they missed the perfect setup because they went to the toilet and now feel they need to take the next less perfect one to make up for it. This is why I generally avoid discussing the merits of one system Vs another based on theoretical magic numbers.
MajorDutch
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I will continue to only take A+ trades because I am in this to make as much money as possible I am not in this to take as many trades as possible. If I take 3 trades or 20 trades per month on the dailies it doesn't matter to me, what matters is I am absolute comfortable that the trade I am taking is an A+ in my book. There will be many A- trades on the journey which may have a positive expectancy but as long as I use sensible money management I would prefer to stake more on the A+ trades rather than go around with a fookin scatter gun, i'd sooner go out with a sniper rifle. For me removing the need to trade to 'be involved in the market' was how I begun to get profitable on the dailies. I sat through a whole week without trading that was hard but I am glad I had the patience to do it. just my 2c each man to his own.
MajorDutch
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no continue - i just dont get what you are sayin.
itmtrading
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We're all aware that there are many vendors out there who like to charge 1000's for info that you could probably find for free somewhere else. I have been looking at James16's free stuff this week and i must say that it's the best i've found yet, here's the link... i found the rants and charts vid exceptionally good for a free vid although he is a slow talker lol!
Traders Links at The James 16 Group
What other gems of info have you found?
p.s thanks MajorDutch for that link
Thanks for the link provided
Who you're describing there is just a bad mechanical trader....so of course you couldn't rely on his performance metrics. There are people out there who can execute flawlessly though.
I used to wonder why you shouldn't trade every setup...but it's about improving as a trader too, refining a discretionary style so you can tell what setups work and what ones don't.After a year I'm much better at reading the market and can now tell, with rough accuracy, which setups should flunk and which ones not- I want to be on the good trades that i'm comfortable with.
Most traders I know who started off with setups don't take every setup- they don't even use setups anymore and that's because they got better at reading the market with the setups as their template...
Most traders I know who started off with setups don't take every setup- they don't even use setups anymore and that's because they got better at reading the market with the setups as their template...
