Euro/$---GBP/$ Where now?

[The Baptist]

GBP vs Dollar the secret

Hi

Interesting comment on the USD vs GBP/ EURO. I believe One of the key secrets lies in the unmentioned second currency namely the Yen.

A number have said they do not wish to trade the Yen on account of intervention against the USD.

However for this reason I think it is the most valuable. If you look at the Pull back of the GBP vs USD on the 20th the back of last week. If you get The Yen $ chart up and the GBP Yen as well as the GBP $ you will notice it is the yen that weakend most relative to the Dollar and it was around 5%.

Me thinks the Jap central bank bought Dollars agressively and sold yen as the yen was the greatest faller. They would also choose lunch time on Friday to move the market while the Forex traders where noshing donuts and trade was relatively light.

The point to what I am saying if the Dollar is the currency that may get occasionally boosted why not trade the Yen GBP cross. If you look at the yens decline against the GBP it has been far more stable over the last month as the Japs clearly want to do more about controlling the rate of decline of the dollar then the US fed.

Check all three charts side by side and see what you think.

Happy trading!

 

[nickerson334]

Glad you guys are finding trades on GBP and EURO. I havn't seen a thing! Looked at todays 100 tick downmove on GBP as possible H&S breakdown (which it was!) but decided against it at the time.

Also , I'd be pretty wary of holding any positions looking at a 500 move north on either. In my view, better to stand aside and wait.

Still not my area, so all the best in the coming days!

And dont' worry about taking those losses User. they're what keep you in business and ultimatly in profit. Just a reminder in case you were forgetting!!!



p.s. good looking 150 tick short on the USDCAD at 1.3340? Tight stop available. DYOR

+Baptist. I've no doubt you're right although not enough liquididty for me as I'm a very short term trader and also the spread is too wide. All the very best.

 

[User]

Don't worry about me Nickerson, only Lossers become Winners
I was just very happy that I balanced my week with wins in other markets. Otherwise it would have been a lossing week and I haven't had those in a while.

Your right on standing aside, my views are a brief move down and a long move up towards 130+. I've opened small positions but waiting for clarity for my further trades.

Hope you get a chance to jump on the boat.

 

[hammer]

Definitely goin up but trading what i see at the moment. Good to hear your comments guys, good luck tmro in your trading.

Trades:

+18
+12
+4
+31
-7
-37
-41
+24
+8
-12
-28
+9
+10


Total = -9 points on the day

Couple of heavy losses, still perfecting trading plan. Think i need to hold on to profitable positions longer and get rid of lossing ones quicker, but how do you know which is which at the time?! Maybe closer TA. Could have jumped on double bottom of gbp quicker to get more than 9 points profit.

Any suggestions would be appreciated. What is a good suggestion for a maximum stoploss on the gbp? Maybe 30-40 or even 35!

 

[nickerson334]

Yeah hopefuly I'll get a reversal signal or if not a consolidation pattern.

I dont' go for 300 - 500 tick trades as I find myself sometimes unable to take logical shorter term trades in the opposite direction.

 

[User]

Wow Hammer, is that the no. of trades for today that you carried out? 9points no big deal better luck next time.

Personally I couldn't trade like that, I see intraday T.A as too much disection---Why not use daily bars and intrepret overall trend and then ride the moves?

Too much screen watching for my liking. I rather do occassional intraday but mostly hold positions slightly longer then you guys

Hammer what package do you use for charting?

A trend can last for a short to long period of time. I would want to trade the overall direction not the little yo yo moves. However if ones making it, then they're suited to it.

Goodluck all

 

[nickerson334]

Hi Hammer

Looking pretty good despite being a losing day. Are you using specific TA indicators? If so which ones?

Head and Shoulders and flags are very common + have set profit targets and logical stop losses at +2:1 profit loss ratios.

You'd have fewer trades but in a week you'd be looking at something like:

+70
-35
-24
+60
-35
-33
+98
+60
-32
+63
-35

If you go to and research strategy at

http://www.trade10.com/Flag.html

http://www.trade10.com/Head_Shoulders.html

http://www.trade10.com/Double_Top.html

and trade min 40 / max 150 point trades
setting entry points, stops and profit targets as indicated you'll be more profitable with less stress, less trades and less screen watching.

just a research suggestion!.

p.s. it's not the amount of points that the stop loss is that's imporatant. It's the %age of your capital you're losing when it's hit and whether or not it's placed in a logical position.
Also Profit:Loss ratio is impotant.

Say for example you short a head and shoulders formation. Target 80 points. You then set your stop above the resistance of the second shoulder at say 35 points. You capital is $10,000 so you decide you only ever risk 5% of your capital per trade.

From your research you know that 4/10 H&s formations hit profit target. 4 hit your stop loss (whether the second shoulder is 50 / 100 ro 235 points it dosn;t matter. It's 5% of your capital.) And 2/10 you catch at a small proifit.

Reseach 100 Head and Shoulders breakdowns. Research 100 flags, research 100 Double Tops. In my opinion they're the most reliable. However research 100 Cup & Handle formations etc. etc. It's the only way to become a stable technical trader.

 

[hammer]

Yea it is quite alot of screen watching but alot of it uses stops and limits so i do get my breaks. Dnt think i have enough capital behind me to get the long trades. Dnt think i got the guts either.

That was gonna be a question of mine actually, at the moment i just use cmc's software but i was wondering if ppl had any good suggestions of free software out there good for use with forex.

Here is a graph, i have used fan lines thought i'd give them a try, see if they useful. What do you guys think? Any insight?

 

[hammer]

What time frames do you use to do your TA Nickerson and User? During the day i used 5 min graph for trades and look at the 15 min and 30 min graph to get an idea of the larger trend.

Just doing some TA on gbp when a trade opp came round, closed early as i wanna go bed and don't really want an open position over night. Made 15 points so am now 6 points up on the week. Hardly something to sing about but at least am not 9 points down!

By the way nick, i looked at those links you posted, very interesting. I use H & S but sometimes find it hard to spot them, double/triple tops and bottoms are great indicators just never have the confidence to jump on them quick enough, or i get off too soon! But tomorrow is a new day, i will try longer trades with larger profits. I am gonna post my views here and any feedback on them would be much appreciated.

Thanks guys :cheesy:

 

[User]

Hammer, I mostly tend to use daily OHLC candlesticks, Goodluck with your trades.

Nickerson I looked at those links, they explain it quite well, I tend to use double tops n bottoms along with numerous other things. I agree with your trading suggestion, and yeh 2:1 P&L ratio is decent providing all is equal.

 

[nickerson334]

Thing is Hammer your confidence comes through research. If you test 100 different Double Tops and 50 work with a 2:1 profit loss ratio you will be confident in trading them.

Trading an untested strategy is a big mistake. That I expect is what's causing your fear. i.e. profits to soon, losses to late!

Researching a strategy well for a week or two before you trade will save you months of losses.

 

[hammer]

Where do i get past info to test from?


I don't think there will be must downside movement now, imo will gradually climb back up to 1.9 by the end of the week.

 

[hammer]

GBP -Is that a bullish triangle on the 5 min chart? Flat bottom, sloping top. Breakout at 1.8760, target 1.8780. ??? Downside failure with break of 1.8740.

 

[hammer]

Im holding a long at 1.8760, looking for 1.8800.

 

[Buk]

looking a bit 'toppy' you maybe ok if it busts the 775 top from earlier this a.m/p.m & that trend line at 8800 on the 30 min from the high's.....would like to see some daylight there first though!!

 

[hammer]

I hear you buk, i closed the long about an hour ago when it failed to break through. Oh well didnt lose anything. Wait for movement before i decide where to go next.

 

[Buk]

yeah, although it's consolidating at the top & the lower trend line from the 22nd is offering support, it just seems a bit extended imo.....won't do any harm for a little sideways movement here. There's certainly room for another run north, personally I'm watching the lower channel at 8740 for a push down.

 

[hammer]

I will be watching with a keen eye too. Looking at the dow with interest too.

 

[hammer]

Anyone catch the breakout? I sat out on this one, was a bit unsure.

 

[hammer]

Hmm if i'd have just held that long at 1.8760 i would be sitting on 100 points profit and i could have packed up for the day.

Nice feeling!

Oh well gonna wait for the next dip then buy in. Trend is definitely back up now. Prob will see 1.91 again by the end of the week.