Eploiting the EUR/CHF 1.2 minimum exchange rate

But what about what the free market wants?

Those huge flows of money from all those parties wanting to smash a central bank will bankrupt the SNB printing press won't they? How are they going to keep up buying all those euros? Oh wait...
 
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Yeah, I guess they might run out of electricity to power the printing presses...

Generally, we sort of know that there's a resting bid at 1.20 in €20bn in EBS. My guess it's similar sizes on other platforms. Good luck to the modern-day wannabe Soroses "smashing" through that!
 
I actually made some money out of going long EUR/CHF after the announcement in September. It seemed to me that there was some support at round number levels above 1.2 so I kept buying when it fell to these levels and selling when there was a reasonable profit. But I lost 2/3rds of what I had made in late October when there was a more sustained fall and I then decided to stop doing it.

I started again recently when the level fell back to 1.2 but the fact that this met only modest success and that the SNB could (now?) at any moment take away its support led me to stop doing this. I now have a small short position on the lines of your thinking, marbig.

The only thing that makes me question the trade is that I don't see how the SNB backs down now, relatively soon after initiating the policy, without losing face. I accept that it must be accumulating ridiculous Euro currency reserves now, and may well wish it could abandon the policy, but it doesn't want to look like it made a massive mistake. How would you justify it if you were the governor of the SNB?
 
Interesting that they've actually been going down since Q3 2011. Not sure why that would be.
Well, they trade this stuff, so my guess is that they sold some stuff that has made money (German bonds, maybe some gold, etc). At the same time, they didn't have to intervene aggressively. What is most interesting is that they have managed to diversify a lot of their EUR risk into other ccies (mostly USD & GBP).
 
What is most interesting is that they have managed to diversify a lot of their EUR risk into other ccies (mostly USD & GBP).

Diversifying into the USD and the GBP has also been a disaster for the SNB.

27.8% of ( Currency breakdown of foreign currency investments, including derivatives, excluding investments and liabilities in connection with foreign exchange swaps
) is in US dollars.
BUT, the USD/CHF has fallen significantly since 15th March, so the SNB is also taking even more losses on their USD holdings :cry:

Only 4.7% of ( Currency breakdown of foreign currency investments, including derivatives, excluding investments and liabilities in connection with foreign exchange swaps
) is in GBP. so the impact of the rising GBP/CHF is minimal

Overall, the SNB is taking enormous losses on both its EUR and USD investments in its attempts to soften the Swissie and keep its manufacturing industries alive. How long they can justify that tactic is the big question.
 
Diversifying into the USD and the GBP has also been a disaster for the SNB.

27.8% of ( Currency breakdown of foreign currency investments, including derivatives, excluding investments and liabilities in connection with foreign exchange swaps
) is in US dollars.
BUT, the USD/CHF has fallen significantly since 15th March, so the SNB is also taking even more losses on their USD holdings :cry:

Only 4.7% of ( Currency breakdown of foreign currency investments, including derivatives, excluding investments and liabilities in connection with foreign exchange swaps
) is in GBP. so the impact of the rising GBP/CHF is minimal

Overall, the SNB is taking enormous losses on both its EUR and USD investments in its attempts to soften the Swissie and keep its manufacturing industries alive. How long they can justify that tactic is the big question.
Erm, you appear to be forgetting that the SNB is a central bank. Yes, it's a somewhat unusual in that it actually sorta kinda softly marks to market. However, in reality it doesn't. Furthermore, you can't just look at the exchange rates and imagine that this is the only part of the SNB PNL. After all, you have to recall that the SNB doesn't actually sit on piles of EUR, USD etc. It actually invests the cash in short-dated govt bonds. Have you seen the performance of short-dated govt bonds recently? Moreover, these bonds carry nicely. Then there's seigniorage, of course.

The proof, yet again, is in the pudding. The SNB reported an interim loss of CHF 1.7bn for Q1 2012 (http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20120430/source/pre_20120430.en.pdf). I, for one, don't really perceive that as "enormous" and I can't imagine it's that difficult to justify.
 
"the SNB doesn't actually sit on piles of EUR, USD etc. It actually invests the cash in short-dated govt bonds"


So it buys EUR with the left hand and sells them again with the right hand!?
 
They buy a currency then invest in bonds that are denominated in that currency e.g buying USD as counter party through those short USD/CHF then using the dollars to buy zero coupon treasuries
 
The SNB is creating CHF out of thin air so that it can buy EUR created out of thin air. They are then using the EUR that were created out of thin air to buy Government bonds...who ends up with the 'Cash' that was created out of thin air and what do they do with it? How isn't this inflationary?
 
I'm not sure exactly how the auction process works but the SNB will end up with cash when their bonds mature or they sell their other investments.
 
The SNB is creating CHF out of thin air so that it can buy EUR created out of thin air. They are then using the EUR that were created out of thin air to buy Government bonds...who ends up with the 'Cash' that was created out of thin air and what do they do with it? How isn't this inflationary?
The German government ends up with the cash. You tell me whether those profligate, inflation-loving Germans are gonna cause a problem.
 
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