End of the Dow Bull Run

[lurkerlurker]

Some big funds including Soros have been buying heavy in prime stock, Buffet looking to capitalize on oil prices knocking road freight so he's moving into rails. They are targeting specific long term goals.

But as regards the Dow, it's always been a polished turd for the masses.

Some believe markets boom, consolidate then boom again.

This bull run took off when everyone had convinced themselves that Iraq was the only hurdle to prosperity, the market ran away with itself as it saw the match between superpower and p*ss pot state was going only one way. An Arab farting in the direction of the USA, had the market go into apperplexy, such was the sentiment. Post March 03 terrorism had little effect by comparison.

The market only goes up because of bullish sentiment, the fundamentals will be interpreted to support the consensus, a from of sexing up. When figures come in that are less terrible than expected, that's apparently reason to charge in, regardless of just how bad those numbers still are.

It usually takes a shock event to scare a new sentiment bias into the market. Then the very same fundamentals will be embraced in a whole new light.

When? I've given up having an opinion on that one. I day trade and to hell with everything else.:cheesy:

Good post. Quite right about the day trading bit, but it can be important to know more about the long term trend. Good luck!

 

[lurkerlurker]

If you want confirmation for a bear trend to initiate, you need to make a lower high first and by no means we are close to that. That could take two months or more

After the correction end February, many surveys reported the public very eager to buy.

Which is bearish.

Bear or Bull, in general, there are long and short opportunities I would almost every day, just be aware of the long trend, it not difficult to work work, if in doubt, stay out "cash is king"

Great advice - I stopped losing money when I stopped trying to pick the top. I didn't have much time to make bull pips though.



This was my first thread on T2W. I like reviewing old posts from time to time. Looks like my timing on this one was a few months off, but the Dow did collapse and the volatility increased to a multi year high. Now we seem set to print a new annual low, I thought I'd resurrect this thread and highlight some interesting comments which look even better in hindsight.

Also, I made my bear pips in August. I've made a few more since, and am now in overall profit. I also think I might be learning how to trade.

Back to the Dow

 

[firewalker99]

This was my first thread on T2W. I like reviewing old posts from time to time. Looks like my timing on this one was a few months off, but the Dow did collapse and the volatility increased to a multi year high. Now we seem set to print a new annual low, I thought I'd resurrect this thread and highlight some interesting comments which look even better in hindsight.

Good idea, interesting to compare what others said or thought at that particular time and how things eventually turned out.

If you want confirmation for a bear trend to initiate, you need to make a lower high first and by no means we are close to that. That could take two months or more

Looks like it took a lot more than two months, but we have our lower high now

 

[firewalker99]

Lurker, care to compare your first post with the current state of the markets?

 

[tune]

Divergence.

 

[tune]

I also posted the above chart in the Dow group. I'll follow it up with the same follow up.

Justin Mamis When to Sell will give a far better explaination of the above charts than I ever can. It is an approach that I originally picked up from Db's e-book. The Tops and Bottoms file explains.

Still a work in progress for me and it needs more tinkering yet but if you add in the Dow Theory work, like eirerambler does, all in that is a lot of information for very little money. Only takes a few minutes a day to run through them and free at Stockcharts, although it would probably pay to pay them for the customizable charts, which I ought to do to myself.

Below is a weekly one I did 20th July. This has ticks on too.