Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

I was looking for the 1.3675 - 1.3700 area as a top. The Euro just made the 1.3683 so I just went short for probably long term. Also, I had said several weeks ago that i thought the dow jones move up was over or almost over. I have had a target price based on fibonacci levels of 12,361. The dow just made 12,373 at the same time the Euro made it's high. Good Trading Everyone, things are about to get volatile.

Actually when I manually calculated the Dow Jones then The 76.4 fibo level came in at 12,375.57. It did go a bit higher than that on Friday, but I'm still pretty positive that the long term top is in place. As for the EUR_USD.........I guess I should have waited to the 1.3700 level instead of selling at the 1.3675 level, but I sold at 1.3675 and sold more at 1.3700. I will not sell anymore until a five wave move down and a three wave move back up...The Euro should go below 1.3424 on this run down and then use that level as resistance before going even lower.

Good Trading Everyone,

JahDave

 

[JahDave]

This Euro move down is really pushing the limits of Elliott Wave Theory, but I am pretty sure that my wave counts are still valid and that this pair is getting ready to get hammered to the downside. If it goes up past the 1.3716 then I will have to do a recount, but I don't think it will get there.................

 

[FX4Newbies]

This Euro move down is really pushing the limits of Elliott Wave Theory, but I am pretty sure that my wave counts are still valid and that this pair is getting ready to get hammered to the downside. If it goes up past the 1.3716 then I will have to do a recount, but I don't think it will get there.................

Hello JahDave,

EU is playing a new tune these days across the board. When the count doesn't pan out as expected, then just dance with it until the "normal" rhythm returns. I have found it easier to just let it lead the dance all the way, because you never know when the tempo will change.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

 

[JahDave]

Hello JahDave,

EU is playing a new tune these days across the board. When the count doesn't pan out as expected, then just dance with it until the "normal" rhythm returns. I have found it easier to just let it lead the dance all the way, because you never know when the tempo will change.

Take care,

FX4Newbies

I agree with you there..........I had sold at 1.3675 and then again at 1.3700 and got some nice profits that I protected half of it because I thought it would go down again............but the point is that I did protect half of my profits.......Even though I was wrong I still made some pips..........right now I am posting up a chart that could go either way.........My system is still working very well and right now the Euro is staying overbought on 4 different indicators........This happens quite frequently on technical indicators and this is why I use wave counts and Fibonacci levels as well..............From Elliott Wave perspective this could be a "B" wave that may make the 1.3900 before going down to the 1.3400 area........

Thanks for comments 4x and good trading,
Dave


P.S. Your analysis is improving every month..

One more thing..........it does appear that the Euro is going up quite a bit in the medium term,,,,,,,,,but not in the shorter term...........

 

[JahDave]

I don't know why the Euro is still holding up as well as it is right now, but it will be going down sharply very soon..........................I guess the politicians have convinced people in the Euro Zone that everything is ok, but it is definitely not...............The Eurozone has done the exact same thing that the U.S. Federal government has done,,, and that is prop up old bad debt with more new bad debt.......neither government can pay what they have promised and things will get ugly within the next several years...............the only difference is that I think the EuroZone will break apart before this is all over............If Germany says that they withdraw then it is all over for them......................and they will do that if the public outcry gets too great.............

 

[JahDave]

There goes the Euro crashing now.......This is what I was looking for 4X...................

 

[JahDave]

Any surprises for the next 400 pips will be to the downside...........................................

 

[JahDave]

Any surprises for the next 400 pips will be to the downside...........................................

Here is the daily and the hourly charts................I'm not sure about the hour yet as represented in my charts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but I'm pretty confident in the daily levels................Which will hit my minus 400 pip predictions from a confluence of indicators.

 

[JahDave]

BTW,,,,,,,,,,,,I don't have any idea what could wrong with Australia or New Zealand within the next several years,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but,,,,,,,,,,Elliott Wave Theory says that these two currencies will be having some trouble for the next several years................

 

[zammitman]

This Euro move down is really pushing the limits of Elliott Wave Theory, but I am pretty sure that my wave counts are still valid and that this pair is getting ready to get hammered to the downside. If it goes up past the 1.3716 then I will have to do a recount, but I don't think it will get there.................

I can't say that I have had any success with the Elliott Wave Theory over the years. Too difficult to decide where the 12345 waves and ABC waves are. Until afterwards, when everyone then says that they are easy to see.
If you have 100 EWT people in a room, they will all have different wave counts.

 

[JahDave]

I can't say that I have had any success with the Elliott Wave Theory over the years. Too difficult to decide where the 12345 waves and ABC waves are. Until afterwards, when everyone then says that they are easy to see.
If you have 100 EWT people in a room, they will all have different wave counts.

Elliott Wave Theory is useful to me, but I use it in conjunction with other technical indicators...................

 

[JahDave]

Here is the daily and the hourly charts................I'm not sure about the hour yet as represented in my charts,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but I'm pretty confident in the daily levels................Which will hit my minus 400 pip predictions from a confluence of indicators.

Actually I had it charted pretty nice and here is the updated daily chart........My preferred count still remains a flat as indicated by the channel before another push up.......I'm still looking for a move down to the 1.34 area before a move back up......

 

[JahDave]

Actually I had it charted pretty nice and here is the updated daily chart........My preferred count still remains a flat as indicated by the channel before another push up.......I'm still looking for a move down to the 1.34 area before a move back up......

The move down was a running flat and the entire correction down, and now I think that the entire move up has been completed. I think the Euro will probably bounce back up to the 1.3925 or 50 area from here before resuming the move back down.

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good nugget if anyone is reading this. The Euro is in a serious triangle on the 5 minute chart..............Triangles are almost always terminal patterns, so I suspect the Euro will go down for a while from here..........Maybe you can squeeze a few more pips from this, but I doubt it.

 

[JahDave]

This is a medium term reversal...............At least 2 or 3 weeks...................

 

[JahDave]

The USD is actually chomping at the bit to go higher and the EUR is about to crash because of all of the PIIGS problems............Even the Yen and Swissie are going down soon.....

 

[JahDave]

Here is a good nugget if anyone is reading this. The Euro is in a serious triangle on the 5 minute chart..............Triangles are almost always terminal patterns, so I suspect the Euro will go down for a while from here..........Maybe you can squeeze a few more pips from this, but I doubt it.

I guess I should have told everyone that a triangle is a fourth wave pattern and it will go up one more time before a reversal..........I forget that there are many people that have never traded before and many more that have never heard of Elliott Wave Theory........

 

[Ian Copsey]

I can't say that I have had any success with the Elliott Wave Theory over the years. Too difficult to decide where the 12345 waves and ABC waves are. Until afterwards, when everyone then says that they are easy to see.
If you have 100 EWT people in a room, they will all have different wave counts.

You should look at www.harmonic-ewave.com. This is a method that does forecast well and you'll see the calls made on the HEW Calls page... The book is due to be released over the coming month...

 

[JahDave]

I'm in for the long term short Euro and positive Dollar across the board.............

 

[Ian Copsey]

I guess I should have told everyone that a triangle is a fourth wave pattern and it will go up one more time before a reversal..........I forget that there are many people that have never traded before and many more that have never heard of Elliott Wave Theory........

Triangles can be Wave 4 or Wave b...

I identified the support at 1.3410 (stalled at 27) and called for a top at around 1.4281 again. However, this hasn't reversed down to the Wave (b) of Wave (v) (at 1.3750) and that's often a sign of the damn thing resuming gains. Add to that my retracement in USDCHF hit target perfectly yesterday and I'm getting a stronger feeling now this is going to go up ...

Gold is still bullish for a while longer to around 1,500 so a softer Dollar works well with that.

I called the top in the S&P at 1345-50 and base at 1245... that should now rally to 1450 but that will provide a big top - daily Wave (iii) from the 2009 low...