Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

I don't like the look of this, because the EW patterns are showing more highs after the lows that are coming up............Here are the daily Kiwi, Aussie and the Euro charts. The moves down on all three are in threes , and that is corrective................This means more USD weakness.............and I don't like it..............but that is what the charts are saying and I always believe the chart patterns........

Good Trading,
JahDave

I think the USD weakness is finishing up right now and I am going long dollar. I will be watching the reversal to see if it is impulsive or corrective.

 

[JahDave]

My 6_27 post stated that my projection for the Euro was up to 1.4500 and it just made the .4502. I am shorting the Euro now and I will be looking for at least 600 pips, down to the 1.3900 area.

 

[JahDave]

Also, the Kiwi is flying way too high over the Ichimoku cloud and it is ready to come down. I just sold that as well, and from an Elliott Wave perspective it is finishing up an extended "C" wave, so it has tons of room to go down.

 

[JahDave]

The Euro is still going up at the moment, but on the percentage band chart I am posting is showing a spike over the top band which means a hard reversal, and the trix indicator is showing divergence to the downside.

 

[JahDave]

I don't trade stocks at all, but I watch the Dow because when it is going up then the USD is usually going down. Today the DOW went up hard and the USD did not go down much. Every time I see this it seems that currencies are leading and the DOW is going to fall hard very soon. When it falls the USD goes into the impulsive up mode............This is in line with what my posts said last night...........I think a top is in place and the USD is getting ready to make a very strong move up across the board. This chart is the DOW 3 hour labeled as a leading diagonal. It won't take very long to see if this is a good count.

Good Trading,
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

The odds for the Euro making a reversal here soon are based on several indicators. First of all the move up has been in 3 waves.............It is also past due for a move down through the Ichimoku cloud.............Finally, on the daily volume chart the volume is going down while the price is going up......

 

[ctlpast]

I don't trade stocks at all, but I watch the Dow because when it is going up then the USD is usually going down. Today the DOW went up hard and the USD did not go down much. Every time I see this it seems that currencies are leading and the DOW is going to fall hard very soon. When it falls the USD goes into the impulsive up mode............This is in line with what my posts said last night...........I think a top is in place and the USD is getting ready to make a very strong move up across the board. This chart is the DOW 3 hour labeled as a leading diagonal. It won't take very long to see if this is a good count.

Good Trading,
JahDave

Considering Fridays close is this Dow chart/comment still valid?

 

[JahDave]

It is still valid, and the next few weeks should see the DOW accelerate to the downside. Also I think the Euro is going to get hammered this week...........BTW, I found out about the T2w trading contest last week and that is a weekly contest........I entered it for the first time last week and won week #7...................I got in 2 days late this week and will see how I do this week, but my only trade this week so far is a short Euro trade because I feel that the Euro is going to crash soon.............I only wish that I would have gone short the EUR_GBP instead of the EUR_USD,,,,,,,,,,,The EUR_GBP was my first pick to crash the hardest, but I missed the wave 1 down here.........I may cash out my EUR_USD position later this week if the EUR_GBP is at a better position for profit................Of course this will be based on Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci targets, and Ichimoku clouds..............

 

[ctlpast]

It is still valid, and the next few weeks should see the DOW accelerate to the downside. Also I think the Euro is going to get hammered this week...........BTW, I found out about the T2w trading contest last week and that is a weekly contest........I entered it for the first time last week and won week #7...................I got in 2 days late this week and will see how I do this week, but my only trade this week so far is a short Euro trade because I feel that the Euro is going to crash soon.............I only wish that I would have gone short the EUR_GBP instead of the EUR_USD,,,,,,,,,,,The EUR_GBP was my first pick to crash the hardest, but I missed the wave 1 down here.........I may cash out my EUR_USD position later this week if the EUR_GBP is at a better position for profit................Of course this will be based on Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci targets, and Ichimoku clouds..............

Your analysis for the EUR/USD is looking good.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Nice journal Dave.

What's the best way to learn about Elliot Wave theory?

 

[JahDave]

My advice is to buy the book "Elliott Wave Theory", by Frost and Prechter. I think that this the best book ever written on Elliott Wave Theory. I'm sure you can find a used copy on Amazon cheap.

 

[JahDave]

My favored forecast for the Euro is that it is in an extended wave down. The reason for this is that wave 4 has encroached into wave 1 territory. If the extension is taken into consideration then the down count is still valid. The options are that it is still going down more, or that this is a corrective pattern and may go up much more...........I am betting on more down myself.....

 

[JahDave]

If the 1.4337 cannot be broken, then this will probably will get very ugly tonight............

 

[JahDave]

If the 1.4337 cannot be broken, then this will probably will get very ugly tonight............

This level did get broken tonight, but the real trend is still down...................I am short here...................

 

[YouAreNotFree]

My advice is to buy the book "Elliott Wave Theory", by Frost and Prechter. I think that this the best book ever written on Elliott Wave Theory. I'm sure you can find a used copy on Amazon cheap.

Thanks, I'll pick it up.

Im short the EUR/AUD. It should be interesting to see the reaction to the interest rate decision later today. I wonder to what extent the market has priced in a hike to 1.5%.

 

[JahDave]

I took the Aussie down tonight, because there are a lot of technical indicators that say it will go down from here. I really can't believe the levels that are happening so quick, but then again I can, and I am trading well

 

[JahDave]

I took the Aussie down tonight, because there are a lot of technical indicators that say it will go down from here. I really can't believe the levels that are happening so quick, but then again I can, and I am trading well

I am following my system, and the system is working well..................

 

[JahDave]

Thanks, I'll pick it up.

Im short the EUR/AUD. It should be interesting to see the reaction to the interest rate decision later today. I wonder to what extent the market has priced in a hike to 1.5%.

You probably should be long there.................

 

[JahDave]

Thanks, I'll pick it up.

Im short the EUR/AUD. It should be interesting to see the reaction to the interest rate decision later today. I wonder to what extent the market has priced in a hike to 1.5%.

That may be a very good trade because the Euro is going down across the board...........Although on the other hand when things get risky, then the Euro and the USD gain strength.................Which way will it go???????????????????

 

[JahDave]

Kiwi Ichimoku charts

Here is a 5 minute, 1 hour, and 1 day NZD_USD Ichimoku chart. The daily shows no sign of weakness yet. There is a spike on the last 1 hour candle, and there is a gap under that candle as well. The highest probability is that the gap will close and hold support. On the five minute chart there is a nice shooting star to end the trading day. So it looks like there will be some down to start the week, but it will probably move up to new highs after that.

Good Trading,
JahDave