how do harvest cycles end?, when capital reserves become exhausted and further price progression is harder to ensue. Then the locked capital has to be freed up, since sentiment has shifted, its easier to exit since minor capital pools are sensing the sentiment and selling into the capital turnover.
the minor capital pools sell at the lows and buy at the highs, the major capital pools sell at the highs and buy at the lows, this ultimately results in the price shifts we see on our charts.
the minor capital pools sell at the lows and buy at the highs, the major capital pools sell at the highs and buy at the lows, this ultimately results in the price shifts we see on our charts.
money that makes money controls the market, as capital pools are revitalized(positions exited) then a decision is made whether to continue selling with the initial thrust. This decision whether to continue or reverse takes many factors into account.
Mainly risk factors that your positions are exposed to. The main risk factor is the FOMC meeting approaching. It implies that the capital pools will be revitalized before heading into the FOMC meeting.
Mainly risk factors that your positions are exposed to. The main risk factor is the FOMC meeting approaching. It implies that the capital pools will be revitalized before heading into the FOMC meeting.
a crowded trade becomes harder to exit when everyone else tries to exit at the same time. A confluence in psychology must take place among market participants on a timeframe traded. A permeating sentiment. How does major confluence occur. Mainly price action that everyone is focused on.
Intraday runaway psychology pattern. When multiple supports break intraday, the buyers boycott the market.
Intraday runaway psychology pattern. When multiple supports break intraday, the buyers boycott the market.
Attachments
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sovereign_wealth_fund.asp
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?story_id=9230598&fsrc=RSS
http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp471.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7876.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_funds
http://www.minyanville.com/buzz/bookmark.php?id=59952&s=m&context=bookmark&chars=1
MS cool link.
http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2005/20051128-Mon.html
http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/international-affairs/exon-florio/
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Hedge funds and transparency, basically foreign/petro dollars can be used to shift markets. One of the largest SWF(China), we upset just yesterday by us celebrating Dalai Lama's movement in our political sphere.
Hedge funds could be being used for vindictive policies.
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/speeches/opaborn-41.htm
cftc/hedge funds/transparency
LTCM debacle and insights into CFTC vigilance/transparency.
Hedge funds could be being used for vindictive policies.
http://www.cftc.gov/opa/speeches/opaborn-41.htm
cftc/hedge funds/transparency
LTCM debacle and insights into CFTC vigilance/transparency.
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if large enough crash ensues, CFTC will look into the sellers, and prosecute if its blatant. Its a rigged system, thus a mandate to preserve the overall trend. Especially changes in laws secondary to terrorism can make it easy to make a administrators life hell.
darshybaby
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Hi Xymox,
I love reading your posts...they're a real education.
I noticed your YM chart...are you saying that because we're below the horizontal support, we're going further down there?
I'm keen to hear what you think will happen next week. I have been pointing out on my thread on ADVFN, that the USD/Yen was falling because of the g7 meeting this weekend. Perhaps if the carry trade picks up again on Monday (if nothing is said during the meeting), we will see fresh liquidity back in the markets?
Would love to hear your views. I know you focus on the S&P but would love to hear what you think will happen to the Dow?
Thanks so much.
I love reading your posts...they're a real education.
I noticed your YM chart...are you saying that because we're below the horizontal support, we're going further down there?
I'm keen to hear what you think will happen next week. I have been pointing out on my thread on ADVFN, that the USD/Yen was falling because of the g7 meeting this weekend. Perhaps if the carry trade picks up again on Monday (if nothing is said during the meeting), we will see fresh liquidity back in the markets?
Would love to hear your views. I know you focus on the S&P but would love to hear what you think will happen to the Dow?
Thanks so much.
The FOMC meeting is the predominant risk, just as before the bonds rallied before the meeting in anticipation, but when the rate cut actually materialized, the bonds tanked, the bigboys needed some wiggle room, and since we were at already premium levels, they needed fresh liquidity to position for FOMC.
BOJ will pump massive amounts of Yen back into the system, they had a false start a few months back of recalling Yen or liquidity. This false start will be rectified, when they realize, the situation can tip over, their economy isn't doing too great, and dollar bearishness is a crowded trade.
Major macro shifts occur when political agendas change. The US election is of paramount importance. The GOP just basically pilfered the Treasury with profiteering to its lobbyists. Billions of dollars are unaccounted for, its a massive heist of taxpayer funds all in the name of War. The dollar bears will encounter significant risk as the election nears. The american public is tired of Bush and his cronies, fresh new faces will revitalize hopes and dreams for this nation.
As for the DOW/Spooz, I think we have a significant opportunity to head higher, enough pessimism is in the system now to fuel it higher. Markets fall apart from euphoric heights. The other timing point I am looking at is the construction of the WTC site, as the tower builds up equity indicies should rise with it.
The world is looking bright especially for technology driven moneyflows.
A change in the administration results in a 'phase shift' where minds are more conducive to flights of fancy. This results in major trend shifts in markets.
As the dollar appreciates, inflows back into US will occur from major SWF's(see previous links), mainly from petrodollars. This results in more foreign participation in equity markets on the buyside. Since US equities are relatively cheap secondary to their currency appreciation.
As the dollar appreciates, inflows back into US will occur from major SWF's(see previous links), mainly from petrodollars. This results in more foreign participation in equity markets on the buyside. Since US equities are relatively cheap secondary to their currency appreciation.
darshybaby
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Thanks Xymox.
Makes sense to me and thanks for confirming about the USD/YEN pair. Exactly what I thought. However, I do feel that the Dow will head to at least 13350 (pnf target) from here? Then possibly a bounce up, ready for FOMC??
Makes sense to me and thanks for confirming about the USD/YEN pair. Exactly what I thought. However, I do feel that the Dow will head to at least 13350 (pnf target) from here? Then possibly a bounce up, ready for FOMC??
It might, but not many days left before the meeting. Buyside pressure will come in.
