E-Mini SP 500

[Xymox]

how money is stolen from the masses,

the direction the price moves has no bearing. Once you find the weakest participants and what their predisposition or bias is in terms of direction, it gives you the game plan for forcing them out of their positions.

for example if retail is short, if you gap the price higher, it forces the weakest players to cover at the extremes, by forcing your opponent to buy the highs and sell the lows, you effectively steal their money.

with these types of tactics, whenever price spurts away from you, you have to distribute, or raise cap reserves so that you have the funds available to push price in the future.

so the key becomes:

1) sum of weakest player positional bias.
2) critical mass of positional bias of the weakest participants.

news and other fundamental factors, pushes the weakest participants to engage in a skewed fashion to take a position in mass. Thus fear/greed, inflation/deflation scares are essentially the same thing.

what defines the weakest participant. One who takes on more leverage and maintains the leverage till end game for capital reserves.

 

[Xymox]

easy technical selling as these trendies break.

 

[Xymox]

controlling interest of the herd.

 

[Xymox]

predictability increases as the emotion level increases and as the session progresses.

 

[Xymox]

predictability increases as the emotion level increases and as the session progresses.

if you take this precept, currently there is no emotion in the market, or past filter levels, if that is so, why even trade? Wait for the emotion level to increase as evidenced by market parameters such as the VIX.

Emotion equates volatility.

 

[Xymox]

no clear signal to sell yet.

 

[Xymox]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm#calendars

the next FED meeting isn't till end of October. As the data is indicating, no need for further rate cuts. This risk dynamic favors distribution as the FED meeting nears.

 

[Xymox]

remember the direction price moves has no bearing. Its the degree that it moves in one direction that blows positions out. The same people that gapped it premarket, distributed to the people who were stopped out, and as cap reserves were raised, those funds were available to goose it further.

 

[Xymox]

possible bounce point 1560.

 

[Xymox]

MA's

 

[Xymox]

tower index, and equity markets.

http://brian-freundt.de/highrising/FreedomTower1.jpg

http://www.mises.org/qjae518/QJ265rev.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Tower
75th anniversary of the opening of the Empire State Building. Construction began with a formal ceremony that took place when the construction team arrived.[4] It is projected that steel for the building will be visible above ground in 2008, with a topping out in 2010. The building is projected to be ready for occupancy in the first quarter of 2011.[5]

 

[Xymox]

the current equity dynamics, shorts have been blown out, expected retraces post FED ease, have been very few and price has gained ground to the upside. Whether these same shorts will be convinced to buy the tops is another matter.

but risk increases as the next FED meeting approaches, since data is giving the FED an 'out' from further eases. This paints increased risk in the short term till FED meeting is over for some downdrafts. Once the market is comfortable with lack of further eases, then it can make headway.

 

[Xymox]

you will see that the jig is up, when initial longs on retraces will fail to be rewarded.

 

[Xymox]

1560 is the first long point. If price action is indicative, then that long will fail.

 

[Xymox]

global channel

 

[rols]

1560 is the first long point. If price action is indicative, then that long will fail.

That's right.

Go with the order flow.

 

[Xymox]

the market wont get its rate cut, unless some pessimistic sentiment can enter the dynamics, one way to create the pessimistic sentiment is for large downdrafts to be engineered.

 

[Xymox]

That's right.

Go with the order flow.

price still seems to be clearing out some 'hopeful' longs. Looking at the price action, it seems to be a computer algo steam rolling down.

 

[Xymox]

these trendlines/channels on cash everybody is watching..

 

[Xymox]

probability factors:

1) 60 minute trend
2) price above or below open range
3) monthly trend
4) weekly trend
5) daily trend
6) direction of intraday MA's up or down
7) MA crossover?
8) news day/volatility
9) other markets moving in sync?
10) macro risk up or down?
11) price action up or down?