Dow - Which Way?

[JFK]

In regards to stop loss arrears say 75 or 80 points! If you look at charts that were kindly displayed by members you will notice that the ‘price’ gives the best indication of where the stop loss should be.
Hypothetically now: If you had placed a stop loss on the 17/04/06 at 11000 after you had the buy signal at 11074 & the market fell on Tuesday, would you have sat & watched it go below 11000 or would you have preferred to realise something was wrong before?
If you would like me to elaborate more you can PM me.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

There shouldn't be pressure. If everytime you open a position you have a heart attack the system shouldn't be traded.

You have to be confident in the plan before you even think about trading it. Until there is no pressure, don't trade it. If your confident and its a good plan, applying discipline will be easy because you know it works. Don't rush into anything (esp. with real money) until your totally at ease and confident with the system.

If you don't trust the system, take time out until you do.

Positive pressure keeps you on your toes. The pressure is good to test the system. How can you test my system in this short period of time?

What is happing here is the Professionals have written off my theory already because they think my system doesn't exist. If it doesn't exist then why are the Professionals still trying to improve their system and invent new ones to find the ultimate. Waste of time then if it doesn't exist.

Some people think the DOW moves randomly between swings. Others put it down to news stories. May be it just moves to mathematical algorithms. May be it moves to forces no one can actually see yet.

Can you believe in things you can't see? The answer is yes. Take the wind for instance. Can you see the wind? No....but you can see the effects of that INVISIBLE force and feel it on your skin.

Maybe we are in the process of replacing the DOW theory with the Bid A-Tool version. I don't know do I? I wouldn't like to say to be honest.

Maybe my system is closer to unlocking the invisible DOW sequence code than any other system at the moment. No one can decide that yet can they.

I have no choice but to Forward Test the System and improve on the mistakes.

Bid A-Tool

 

[watercooled]

All systems work on and off

some very good points in your post watercooled, thank you. I would like to explore with people the collective and sharing part if i may first.
It has been written on these boards that if you have a successful strategy and you share it publicly and people use it, over time its effectiveness will diminish I know for a fact that this system can be front traded by at least two days sometimes more I would like members comments on this part first.



is it safe to come out from the bomb shelter yet has the witch finder general and his posse left to find other witches to burn on another thread :cheesy:

cheers

Don

Hi Don, Batty and all,

All systems work on and off for a while then fade before working again because the markets trend and consolidate in a fractal way. You'll probably end up with multiple systems using different indicators for different instruments. An old and wise trader/broker once told me, "There are more markets than FTSE you know!" There are many books to read and I haven't read them all. But Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Edward De Bono are 2 authors worth reading IMHO. (the internet helps to make life easier)

Regards

WC

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Hi Don, Batty and all,

All systems work on and off for a while then fade before working again because the markets trend and consolidate in a fractal way. You'll probably end up with multiple systems using different indicators for different instruments. An old and wise trader/broker once told me, "There are more markets than FTSE you know!" There are many books to read and I haven't read them all. But Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Edward De Bono are 2 authors worth reading IMHO. (the internet helps to make life easier)

Regards

WC

Yes you might be right. I don't know. I am no expert on trading.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Baldwreck]

BAT - a question if I may. - In your back testing what has been the largest gain and what has been the largest loss and when.
Thanks.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

BAT - a question if I may. - In your back testing what has been the largest gain and what has been the largest loss and when.
Thanks.

Hi,

To be honest there is no point in me doing that because I could make any figures up. I would rather forward test now. We already have 300 points in the bag.

Also it is a little bit difficult for me to answer questions as I am running a full time business at the same time.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

TRADING ALERT: Interesting situation:

As of 3:24pm we have a flat spot in the SIGNAL being produced. This was visible at opening trade and was reported to JillB in a private message just after opening. The ABORT position signal is a "Warning Sign" and to be on gauard. The signal will no be acted on until the END of the day.

If we hit the "STOP LOSS" level then the DOW will likely start to climb in the short term. If we loose this trade on the "Stop Loss" then we must wait for the next clear signal.

This is an early warning the DOW may be about to push higher in the short term. My decisions will be at the end of day and will be final.

PLEASE NOTE: THAT THESE SIGNALS ARE QUITE EARLY WARNING SIGNS OF THE MARKETS HEALTH.

SELL order is still in place at the moment at DOW 11,366

Bid A-Tool

 

[DepthTangent]

Keep up the good work BAT

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Keep up the good work BAT

I think I must be mad or stupid going "Short" in a Bull Market. I need to obey each signal given though to test the system to extreme.

Personally "off the record" I think the DOW has had it now.

I think someone suggested we call my system the BAT Sonar Trading system. So I will stick with that then?

Bid A-Tool

 

[kewbridge]

I think BAT is that Armstrong bloke from the telly. The U Fit double glazing bloke

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I think BAT is that Armstrong bloke from the telly. The U Fit double glazing bloke

This sell trade is like waiting for a very late Bus.

What is good about my system is decisions are only really made near the end of the trading day on the DOW. I do not have to watching it all day. You make the trade walk away and come back 24hrs later to access the situation. Job done.

My system is designed for very busy people.

Bid A-Tool

 

[counter_violent]

At the moment there are other very strong market influences, gold , currency moves etc ......what is interesting here is the fact that Dow is not making gains........this slightly premature Dow short signal may well actually deliver.........certain other major targets were hit today in different instruments .....i'm expecting some sharp reversals in other instruments .....make of this what you will



A late sell off today wouldn't surprize me at all (edit)

 

[hornblower]

bat
will the signal work with other instruments?

 

[Bid A-Tool]

At the moment there are other very strong market influences, gold , currency moves etc ......what is interesting here is the fact that Dow is not making gains........this slightly premature Dow short signal may well actually deliver.........certain other major targets were hit today in different instruments .....i'm expecting some sharp reversals in other instruments .....make of this what you will

A late sell off today wouldn't surprize me at all (edit)

My trade decisions are never influenced by any News Stories and that is the truth.

If there are any Bad news stories around at the moment then all it means to me is that we are at the Top of the sequence. Traders use news stories only as an excuse to sell up in my opinion. It is probably why we have been messing about up here so long on the DOW. They are just waiting for a news story to sell their positions.

Have you ever noticed how the DOW sometimes moves up on Bad news and Sometimes DOWN on good news. I personally think news doesn't really influence the DOW that much. It just appears that way as your eyes see it.

Yes you can get a Market Crash sometimes but I bet it starts from a high some where. Hopefully we will have one so my short is already in place before hand.

If you listen to too much news to make trading decisions then your trade decisions will be like the waves of the see in my opinion.

Bid A-Tool

 

[counter_violent]

My trade decisions are never influenced by any News Stories and that is the truth.

If there are any Bad news stories around at the moment then all it means to me is that we are at the Top of the sequence. Traders use news stories only as an excuse to sell up in my opinion. It is probably why we have been messing about up here so long on the DOW. They are just waiting for a news story to sell their positions.

Have you ever noticed how the DOW sometimes moves up on Bad news and Sometimes DOWN on good news. I personally think news doesn't really influence the DOW that much. It just appears that way as your eyes see it.

Yes you can get a Market Crash sometimes but I bet it starts from a high some where. Hopefully we will have one so my short is already in place before hand.

If you listen to too much news to make trading decisions then your trade decisions will be like the waves of the see in my opinion.

Bid A-Tool

Ehm, I didn't mention news at all anywhere......purely technical stuff.....I have a theory all on it's own about " news"

"news aids trends" in general ............now lets wait for the masses to rip that one apart.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Ehm, I didn't mention news at all anywhere......purely technical stuff.....I have a theory all on it's own about " news"

"news aids trends" in general ............now lets wait for the masses to rip that one apart.

I think It's all in the Mind. That's the Bid A-Tool Theory.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

TRADING UPDATE.

Last "Short" Signal still in place. Do not abort position.

We had a possible Abort trading signal this afternoon. but because of what has happened to the DOW over the past few days and the reading I am seeing at the end of the Trading Day, I personally feel this Short position is now in the bag and a forgone conclusion.

We could be near to a serious fall in my opinion. This is because of the reading over the past few days collectively. Don't forget my signals picks up the "QUITE" before the storm. Before anyone can see it. Storm category 10 if you ask me. Very windy down hill hopefully for the short position.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

TIME: 8:03pm

JUST HAD A SIGNAL IN THAT THE DOW HAS STARTED THE FALL SEQUENCE. I WOULD ADVISE TO GET OUT OF ANY LONG POSITIONS FOR NOW. THE FALL IS USUALLY SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROM WHEN THE SIGNAL COMES IN

BID-TOOL

 

[jezza888]

Quite the bold statement considering...

TIME: 8:03pm

JUST HAD A SIGNAL IN THAT THE DOW HAS STARTED THE FALL SEQUENCE. I WOULD ADVISE TO GET OUT OF ANY LONG POSITIONS FOR NOW. THE FALL IS USUALLY SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROM WHEN THE SIGNAL COMES IN

BID-TOOL

Did you not say earlier you didn't trust your system?

I am under PRESSURE.......to obey the system. Don't think for one minute I trust the system. I see the signal sometimes and think "You must be joking!......like the last 3 days of the DOW movement.

If I don't obey my created system at the time of the signal then how can it be tested?

Bid A-Tool

 

[leovirgo]

TIME: 8:03pm

JUST HAD A SIGNAL IN THAT THE DOW HAS STARTED THE FALL SEQUENCE. I WOULD ADVISE TO GET OUT OF ANY LONG POSITIONS FOR NOW. THE FALL IS USUALLY SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROM WHEN THE SIGNAL COMES IN

BID-TOOL

Get out of Long positions? A very strong statement! You stated that only simulated trades should be taken with your system, not with real money. Ok, I just entered a Long trade at 11360. -just a paper trade to test your system. My stop is 11320, 40 points. My target is 11400 and then 11460+, 100+ points. I am quite anxious to test your signal although I don't know what your secret indicators are.