Whilst any input is appreciated, calling the action for the day has to be a hit or miss affair..... OK we all get it right some of the time, but none of u scan be fortune tellers, no matter how hard we try. Better to give an insight into SR levels etc, and see what happens....
GKB Go for it. I don't think any of us on this thread is stupid enough to close their eyes to another persons trading style.Myself included.
Sall Post away your findings. It is only with the input of new ideas and how they work can we all explore new possibilities.
The way to do this is only through hard work. No one is going to do it for you. The best way forward with any ideas is to use the years of intraday charts in the archives to see if your theories stand the test of back testing. Don't give up the first time you find a case where the test fails. You will not find the Holy Grail ( if you do, email me, I'll go halves.) You need to find whether your theory works more often than not...... Where it does not work, look for rules that may define these exceptions...... They may not be immediately clear, but as you find more, it may suddenly jump out in front of you..... For example, go check on ES volume to see if there are clues there.( i.e. lack of confirming volume) . This homework will take a long time and may be totally fruitless.... But from the exercises alone, you will learn a lot. Even if it is only an intuitive recognition of the waveforms that you know will reverse, but you cannot put down on paper the rules to express those conditions. This worked for me, it may not work for you...... If you don't try , you will never know.
An example of this is is the PD in an ever rising market..... the basic rules apply- get out on the third peak. But what of the never ending up trends that we have seen recently? Three sets of PD's, all getting higher highs.... How do you know not to exit? I don't know how to put it down on paper, but I know intuitively whether the move is likely to continue.I have to rely on experience and being in -synch with the market.
Finally, don't be fooled by the apparent simplicity of post market analysis. Calling it in real time is incredibly demanding, demonstrated by most peoples actual results.It is truly heart warming to see people post their days account, warts 'n' all. Firstly, they're not fooling themselves. Secondly, they are making themselves aware of the mistakes they made in front of their peers.Thirdly, one can relate to others reading of the market, and taking comfort from the fact that they were not the only one to take a trade or an exit at a particular point. Posting just your winners helps no one. We can all do that . Posting your losers is the most important way forward into understanding why we make the mistakes we do. None of us has to worry about the winners..... It's the losers you need to concentrate on. That's where you lose your shirt.
