tradesmart
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Good call with the bear flag Justyn, but I hope that you took your profits before the ferocious rebound from support.....!
a lot of it undoubtedly caused by short covering....
bl**dy schizophrenic markets.......
(enjoyed the 'long' on the way up though....... :cheesy: )
a lot of it undoubtedly caused by short covering....
bl**dy schizophrenic markets.......
(enjoyed the 'long' on the way up though....... :cheesy: )
Typical ! - I had a day off today due to other commitments. But what a great day for people who got in on the right side of the market.
If I had been trading, I would like to think I would have entered a long on the PB to ema at 12:14. But I think it is more likely that I would have entered a short on the PB to ema at 11:14 (thereby missing out on the 12:14 opportunity).
Well, I'll never know now. Hope you all did well............D.
If I had been trading, I would like to think I would have entered a long on the PB to ema at 12:14. But I think it is more likely that I would have entered a short on the PB to ema at 11:14 (thereby missing out on the 12:14 opportunity).
Well, I'll never know now. Hope you all did well............D.
Looks like the 3 day RS Switch theory was spot on...So I'll cancel the rolling top for now. :cheesy: Santa is coming.... so is 650. trouble is, I always see something else.... Is that a slight down channel forming? If we didn't dip below that support line that I drew last night, I' d be a much happier Bunny. So, two more days of up then....
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d top at 470 should have prompted a short, covering after the mini PD and coming through 32...Inv H&S , SR Switch , bouncing off neckline at 43 all added up to an early long.For the safe bet,waiting for the bounce from 450 to 445 just above the 100MA wasn't too long to wait....with a rapid move into profits, following T1 target from the "loose" triangle and onto T2 from the mid move flag, and an out soon after on the 25 min ND at 520 ish. Now you knew it was going down didn't you...... failed to make 32's.Time to catch your breath , maybe, and too late to jump on the short perhaps... A clear 5 legs down to RSI O/S at the 100MA. entering long again at the pullback to 500 just on the 100MA. A brief test at 32, then onto 60 for another 3 pk ND out over 30 mins.
I'm getting interested in those RSI fan lines off the bottoms....they come in 3's.
Debs Your short entry was flawed because of the SR Switch and the Inv. H&S delivered above target- break above 440 off the RHS.
I'm getting interested in those RSI fan lines off the bottoms....they come in 3's.
Debs Your short entry was flawed because of the SR Switch and the Inv. H&S delivered above target- break above 440 off the RHS.
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Tradesmart I decided to get out at the volume/selling climax on the futures chart at 432 ("A" on chart attached). 80 points is more than enough for me.
I was wrong (obviously). It looked to me at the time like a bear flag was forming but after the second touch on support it seemed to carry on crawling upwards along the support line and didn't break down.
I decided to give up for the day rather than give any points back.
I might not be around so much in future, with the pressures of work and a newborn baby I am finding it impossible to daytrade and do all the other stuff in life as well.
I thought I might look at taking longer term positions on the Dow or maybe trading shares rather than indices but I would still have to spend time studying charts so I'm not sure what to do yet.
Keep up the good work all, see you soon!
Justyn.
I was wrong (obviously). It looked to me at the time like a bear flag was forming but after the second touch on support it seemed to carry on crawling upwards along the support line and didn't break down.
I decided to give up for the day rather than give any points back.
I might not be around so much in future, with the pressures of work and a newborn baby I am finding it impossible to daytrade and do all the other stuff in life as well.
I thought I might look at taking longer term positions on the Dow or maybe trading shares rather than indices but I would still have to spend time studying charts so I'm not sure what to do yet.
Keep up the good work all, see you soon!
Justyn.
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ChartMan said:
CM: Sorry for being dense, but can you tell me where the LHS is on the inv H&S ? Is it an upward sloping inv H&S ? I'm assuming the 'lowest point on the inv head' is 10420 and the 'lowest point on the RHS' is 10430. Is the lowest point on the LHS 10425 ? If so, I think this 'person' is a bit deformed.........
I would have missed the d top at the beginning, because when I first looked at it, I saw an inv H&S, (neckline-10470, shoulders - 10460, top of head - 10450). Perfectly proportioned....
(BTW - I'm very impressed with your 3 day RS Switch theory on the 10 min chart). .....debs
[/QUOTE]I might not be around so much in future, with the pressures of work and a newborn baby I am finding it impossible to daytrade and do all the other stuff in life as well.
I thought I might look at taking longer term positions on the Dow or maybe trading shares rather than indices but I would still have to spend time studying charts so I'm not sure what to do yet. Keep up the good work all, see you soon! Justyn.[/QUOTE]
Well done Justin - I'd be very happy with 80 points as well ! I think it was a good move to stay out and avoid the risk of giving them back. I wish you the best of luck in whatever strategy you decide to follow in the future............debs
I thought I might look at taking longer term positions on the Dow or maybe trading shares rather than indices but I would still have to spend time studying charts so I'm not sure what to do yet. Keep up the good work all, see you soon! Justyn.[/QUOTE]
Well done Justin - I'd be very happy with 80 points as well ! I think it was a good move to stay out and avoid the risk of giving them back. I wish you the best of luck in whatever strategy you decide to follow in the future............debs
TraderTony
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Boy - did I quit at the wrong time! Cracking day for all who got long by midday time and stayed there. I, by contrast, managed to clutch mediocrity from the jaws of triumph amidst rollover day confusion...
Beautiful break down off the 100 ema but I was was distracted and didn't take it. I can't work out if I should still be trading December contract or onto March. Today is rollover day but my March 05 charts look very thin while spread on December doesn't look right.
10:24 1) S 10432. Oops - jumped in a bit soon for the breakdown of the flag. Could get away with it though.
10:31 EXIT: +10 on target.
That trade was on December contract but I am changing everything to March as the chart is much better now the day has opened and the spread is as it should be.
Missed the lovely CT PD for 10 from 10:34 in the while changing everything over!
Kept out of the sideways action (which was good) but missed the breakout and move up (which was not).
12:39 2) S 10492. ND off pivot. Nothing happening. Moves in my favour a little but no follow through.
12:46 EXIT: +1. Stopped out at +1 after it failed to break 87 level twice. And right on cue it does break lower as soon as I exit. Still painfully slow though.
Beautiful entry for the next leg up at 13:06. But I was away from desk and couldn't bring myself to enter late, doh! Looks like another day where I leave dozens of genuinely easy points (by my own rules) on the table.
Generally, I'm far less worried about missing moves these days as I've become much pickier about my set ups, but when I miss ones I ought to have taken (i.e. that fit my criteria for entry) it really annoys me.
13:24 3) L 10530. Talk about late arriving at the party but I'll give it a go. Up. Then S1 level stops it in its tracks at 10538 level. And again. And again. Tricky.
13:30 EXIT: +5. Probably a premature exit, but this is the third leg up and it has hit resistance before its target.
13:36 4) 10535. For a CT move on ND. In profit by no movement again. Stalled at 10530 level. Nervous.
13:43 EXIT: +5. Again, worried by lack of follow through against the strong up trend. But as in trade 2), it had another push down as soon as I exited and if I'd held I would have got my 10 (and some!) without any heat on the position.
Well, once again, I've just about done OK today but I should have done so much better as so far it has been long ever since midday. Ah well, I'm absolutely cream crackered and falling asleep at my PC so at 7pm London time I'm going to cash in early and catch up on some sleep before all the kids wake up again in the middle of the night!!
+21 from 4
+17 for the day after commissions
+93 for December so far after commissions (7 days of trading)
Beautiful break down off the 100 ema but I was was distracted and didn't take it. I can't work out if I should still be trading December contract or onto March. Today is rollover day but my March 05 charts look very thin while spread on December doesn't look right.
10:24 1) S 10432. Oops - jumped in a bit soon for the breakdown of the flag. Could get away with it though.
10:31 EXIT: +10 on target.
That trade was on December contract but I am changing everything to March as the chart is much better now the day has opened and the spread is as it should be.
Missed the lovely CT PD for 10 from 10:34 in the while changing everything over!
Kept out of the sideways action (which was good) but missed the breakout and move up (which was not).
12:39 2) S 10492. ND off pivot. Nothing happening. Moves in my favour a little but no follow through.
12:46 EXIT: +1. Stopped out at +1 after it failed to break 87 level twice. And right on cue it does break lower as soon as I exit. Still painfully slow though.
Beautiful entry for the next leg up at 13:06. But I was away from desk and couldn't bring myself to enter late, doh! Looks like another day where I leave dozens of genuinely easy points (by my own rules) on the table.
Generally, I'm far less worried about missing moves these days as I've become much pickier about my set ups, but when I miss ones I ought to have taken (i.e. that fit my criteria for entry) it really annoys me.
13:24 3) L 10530. Talk about late arriving at the party but I'll give it a go. Up. Then S1 level stops it in its tracks at 10538 level. And again. And again. Tricky.
13:30 EXIT: +5. Probably a premature exit, but this is the third leg up and it has hit resistance before its target.
13:36 4) 10535. For a CT move on ND. In profit by no movement again. Stalled at 10530 level. Nervous.
13:43 EXIT: +5. Again, worried by lack of follow through against the strong up trend. But as in trade 2), it had another push down as soon as I exited and if I'd held I would have got my 10 (and some!) without any heat on the position.
Well, once again, I've just about done OK today but I should have done so much better as so far it has been long ever since midday. Ah well, I'm absolutely cream crackered and falling asleep at my PC so at 7pm London time I'm going to cash in early and catch up on some sleep before all the kids wake up again in the middle of the night!!
+21 from 4
+17 for the day after commissions
+93 for December so far after commissions (7 days of trading)
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Debs and others. Let me say one thing.... I noticed a post by someone about H&S tops. Basically, you'll rarely see them on the DOW, especially on a 10 min chart, so don't go looking for them. They occur infrequently on the 1 min chart. What we do see a lot of is the Inverse H&S and this has a peculiar characteristic that you have to understand. I also have a peculiar way of describing them, that is NOT a la text book....... The books mention shoulders and necklines which I find confusing.... so see the attached chart. All you need to know is marked. The LHS, RHS and the bottom are the 3 important bits. These formations produce a target that either delivers, or it doesn't. The first one that Debs saw at the open, didn't .I have drawn in by hand what you might expect to see if it was going to "deliver".This is where it breaks the D top.The second one does deliver, and well, as it has a pullback to support( that was resistance.) at 440.
Confused? Not really, it's simple. Take the distance between the bottom and the trendline slope from LHS to RHS.Calculate the points between the low and going straight up to where it crosses the trend line. ADD this to the value at the RHS point and that is the "Target". It may, or may not be above the top of the shoulder but mostly it wil be the same as the top prior to the RHS point.
Confused? Not really, it's simple. Take the distance between the bottom and the trendline slope from LHS to RHS.Calculate the points between the low and going straight up to where it crosses the trend line. ADD this to the value at the RHS point and that is the "Target". It may, or may not be above the top of the shoulder but mostly it wil be the same as the top prior to the RHS point.
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tradesmart
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Nice, slightly offset “W” bottom formation as a result of yesterday's action, with a target around 10600……
However, after yesterdays huge 200+ point range, I rather suspect that we’ll see an inside day today and a triangle or similar while the market ruminates on OPEC's decision…....
(purely speculative comment – as always ‘trade what you see’ imho……. )
However, after yesterdays huge 200+ point range, I rather suspect that we’ll see an inside day today and a triangle or similar while the market ruminates on OPEC's decision…....
(purely speculative comment – as always ‘trade what you see’ imho…….
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cannot believe they can force 10550 level. i'd rather say we're going today to get back from highs to 400 or even lower. to many analysis about santa claus rally and too much worried information for last 2 months.
i'm ready to open short position today.
p.s.
besides this pseudo "bullish market" was prepared by lower crude oil and bush winning in elections. this is the past so let's back to the reality
i'm ready to open short position today.
p.s.
besides this pseudo "bullish market" was prepared by lower crude oil and bush winning in elections. this is the past so let's back to the reality
" noticed a post by someone about H&S tops. Basically, you'll rarely see them on the DOW, especially on a 10 min chart, so don't go looking for them"
as you say though it "either delivers, or it doesn't". And failed head and shoulders can be just as violent as sucessful one so always worth looking at imo.
as you say though it "either delivers, or it doesn't". And failed head and shoulders can be just as violent as sucessful one so always worth looking at imo.
TraderTony
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Friday 10th December 2004
Well, with a horrible sense of inevitability, today is the day I pay the price for leaving all the points on the table earlier in the week as my daily average starts to fall further and further below my ultimate target of 20. Looks like there could be more later today when this triangle breaks, but I'll be in a traffic jam by then. I'm not too disappointed as I'm trading more contracts this month and trying to be more choosy in my setups, but I've just hesitated a little on entries and jumped out too soon a few times through fear without really applying my exit rules...
I feel like a real part-timer this week - it must be the onset of Christmas - but another half day coming up for me today as I have to take the family off to the west country this evening. So a quick 30 points or so before packing would be an ideal scenario(!!). Last time I said something like that it all went very horribly wrong.
Too cautious around numbers again or I could have had the job done in the first 30 minutes with the long off the first pullback at 9:38 holding for 30 points below yesterday's HOD by 10:00. Never mind (he says while smashing head repeatedly into desk).
10:40 1) S 10535. After all the excitement and nice moves I finally take a trade.
10:41 EXIT: -2. And it instantly fails. Grrrrrrr.At least I got out at the first sign of failure or it could have been really ugly.
10:53 2) L 10540. For a CT on PD. All over the place (except up to any degree). Looks like a flag for more downside off the 100. Stop to +1.
11:10 EXIT +1. And wouldn't you know, it breaks up almost immediately and would have given me a some very nice points.
12:07 3) L 10542. Another PD from just below the 100 ema. Took a while to get going then starts to move well. This will probably be my last trade of the day so I want a good one. But it needs to break 10560. No. No again. Arghhh. I want to let it run but do not like this.
12:23 EXIT: +10. And up it turns. Bad timing through and through today.
13:06: 4) L 10559. For another move up and a breakout. This is definitely the last trade. Yes, go on. But it still plays silly buggers without any clear follow through. Target at 70 for +11 right at HOD. Damn, missed by one. Surely this is going to go up now, even if just for a fake out. Or not. Family in car so I have to go.
13:17 EXIT: +5. Frustrating and too early as I'm sure this has at least a bit more up left in it but my time is up.
+14 from 4
+10 for the day after commissions
+103 for December so far after commissions (8 days of trading)
Charts to follow over weekend...
Well, with a horrible sense of inevitability, today is the day I pay the price for leaving all the points on the table earlier in the week as my daily average starts to fall further and further below my ultimate target of 20. Looks like there could be more later today when this triangle breaks, but I'll be in a traffic jam by then. I'm not too disappointed as I'm trading more contracts this month and trying to be more choosy in my setups, but I've just hesitated a little on entries and jumped out too soon a few times through fear without really applying my exit rules...
I feel like a real part-timer this week - it must be the onset of Christmas - but another half day coming up for me today as I have to take the family off to the west country this evening. So a quick 30 points or so before packing would be an ideal scenario(!!). Last time I said something like that it all went very horribly wrong.
Too cautious around numbers again or I could have had the job done in the first 30 minutes with the long off the first pullback at 9:38 holding for 30 points below yesterday's HOD by 10:00. Never mind (he says while smashing head repeatedly into desk).
10:40 1) S 10535. After all the excitement and nice moves I finally take a trade.
10:41 EXIT: -2. And it instantly fails. Grrrrrrr.At least I got out at the first sign of failure or it could have been really ugly.
10:53 2) L 10540. For a CT on PD. All over the place (except up to any degree). Looks like a flag for more downside off the 100. Stop to +1.
11:10 EXIT +1. And wouldn't you know, it breaks up almost immediately and would have given me a some very nice points.
12:07 3) L 10542. Another PD from just below the 100 ema. Took a while to get going then starts to move well. This will probably be my last trade of the day so I want a good one. But it needs to break 10560. No. No again. Arghhh. I want to let it run but do not like this.
12:23 EXIT: +10. And up it turns. Bad timing through and through today.
13:06: 4) L 10559. For another move up and a breakout. This is definitely the last trade. Yes, go on. But it still plays silly buggers without any clear follow through. Target at 70 for +11 right at HOD. Damn, missed by one. Surely this is going to go up now, even if just for a fake out. Or not. Family in car so I have to go.
13:17 EXIT: +5. Frustrating and too early as I'm sure this has at least a bit more up left in it but my time is up.
+14 from 4
+10 for the day after commissions
+103 for December so far after commissions (8 days of trading)
Charts to follow over weekend...
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tradesmart
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As predicted earlier (don’t ask me how or why… ) an inside day with a triangle in the first half of the session later ‘morphing’ into a little up channel (some might say a bear flag..)
Took a few points out of it here and there, but didn’t like the evening price action one little bit after the reversal at 580 – the YM spread had opened up 3 or 4 points at times (almost like pre-market..!) and every up bar seemed to get hit with an immediate reversal……(but I'm wary of Friday evenings at the best of times...!)
Assuming that the volume register is accurate, a marked fall off over the last couple of days……
A right H&S shoulder for the bears or will we have a bullish gap up Monday to take out the recent highs…..?
Over to you Alan…….
) an inside day with a triangle in the first half of the session later ‘morphing’ into a little up channel (some might say a bear flag..)Took a few points out of it here and there, but didn’t like the evening price action one little bit after the reversal at 580 – the YM spread had opened up 3 or 4 points at times (almost like pre-market..!) and every up bar seemed to get hit with an immediate reversal……(but I'm wary of Friday evenings at the best of times...!)
Assuming that the volume register is accurate, a marked fall off over the last couple of days……
A right H&S shoulder for the bears or will we have a bullish gap up Monday to take out the recent highs…..?
Over to you Alan…….
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TraderTony
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tradesmart said:
TS - looks like you are still on December contract and we have now rolled over onto March contract (Q`H). This officially happened Thursday but was more than a little confusing as right up until 9:30 market opening on Thursday the volume in Q`H was virtually non-existent and it looked untradeable. I therefore started trading December contract, quickly realised it wasn't behaving normally (erratic spread etc), and had to switch everything over during the day before being able to take any more positions.
china white
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quick comment if i may
u may remember our discussion with Skim about trading in the first hour... when I was still looking too much at TICK's divergencies and thot u shudnt really trade in the 1st hr until things shake out so to speak?
Friday was actually a brilliant confo that if u see a particular pattern from after hours u shud go for it.
L 88 on the first 5 min bars at the open.
90 taken out but leading indices (XBD on SPX and SOX on NDX) r not really shining - no trend day. looking to reverse.
Rev to S @ 90 on price pattern.
Back to 88 - clear Rev back to L on price-volume pattern.
7 pts in the pocket. Cud be more if u did not get p*ssed up with your mates
u may remember our discussion with Skim about trading in the first hour... when I was still looking too much at TICK's divergencies and thot u shudnt really trade in the 1st hr until things shake out so to speak?
Friday was actually a brilliant confo that if u see a particular pattern from after hours u shud go for it.
L 88 on the first 5 min bars at the open.
90 taken out but leading indices (XBD on SPX and SOX on NDX) r not really shining - no trend day. looking to reverse.
Rev to S @ 90 on price pattern.
Back to 88 - clear Rev back to L on price-volume pattern.
7 pts in the pocket. Cud be more if u did not get p*ssed up with your mates
