Dow 2009

[exportdealer]

short

 

[Atilla]

I think we may have a very small retrace to 6800s to test support and then another rise up.

If 7000-7100s broken to the upside it would be a clear change in trend for me. Heading towards 7500 and then testing 8000.

I wouldn't like to short this market now especially with spring round the corner. That is not unless we fall below 6450s again.

 

[exportdealer]

Closed, 12pts, profit just covered overnight div, very messy

 

[Atilla]

On 4 hour charts there is a clear bounce off 7100s so it looks like onwards and forwards for the DOW.

However, I can't help thinking unless 7260s are breached we may test 7080 level again before a convincing surge forward.

Over all bullish with some kind of re-test for 7000-7100 levels this week.

Good trading everyone...

 

[rathcoole_exile]

I think we may have a very small retrace to 6800s to test support and then another rise up.

If 7000-7100s broken to the upside it would be a clear change in trend for me. Heading towards 7500 and then testing 8000.

I wouldn't like to short this market now especially with spring round the corner. That is not unless we fall below 6450s again.

sorry to disagree m8, i'm still emphatically bearish.
in no way has the US or world financial system fixed itself yet, plenty more Downside to go before a true change in trend imho,
although we may see more of these brief rallies, both stronger and more frequently.

 

[chilltrader]

BBC NEWS | Business | Bernanke hopeful for US recovery

Bernanke... talking thru his @rse (again!)

 

[Atilla]

sorry to disagree m8, i'm still emphatically bearish.
in no way has the US or world financial system fixed itself yet, plenty more Downside to go before a true change in trend imho,
although we may see more of these brief rallies, both stronger and more frequently.

All a question of time frames I think.

Yes I concur lows likely to be tested again before we can say depression is over. We may make higher low in which case a pretty good case for depression being over or a lower low in which case a continuation... Not really fussed about calling bottom just making pips.

I'm expecting this bounce to continue uless support withers away until end of April...

Markets simply don't move in straight lines so some up thrust welcome - even if it is to setup another shorting opportunity.

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

sellers have been lining up slowly this afternoon but the momentum seems to be building - market has over extended itself on this bounce.
will now take any strength as a great entry for a short

looking to see dow retesting lows within next couple of weeks

 

[Crap Buddist]

BBC NEWS | Business | Bernanke hopeful for US recovery

Bernanke... talking thru his @rse (again!)

You know when that guy speaks, it's almost like he is about to break down and say........

"oh ****, forgive me,,, the systems gonna collapse... what have I done, I can't take this lying anymore...I'm sorry, I'm sorry" (and then he legs it and remains a jibbering monkey )

He has a nervousness in his voice, always.

maybe its me, anyone else notice his cracking voice when he talks about stablising the economy, it doesn't sound like he believes it, one bit.....

Most odd !

 

[Atilla]

You know when that guy speaks, it's almost like he is about to break down and say........

"oh ****, forgive me,,, the systems gonna collapse... what have I done, I can't take this lying anymore...I'm sorry, I'm sorry" (and then he legs it and remains a jibbering monkey )

He has a nervousness in his voice, always.

maybe its me, anyone else notice his cracking voice when he talks about stablising the economy, it doesn't sound like he believes it, one bit.....

Most odd !

Yes his tone of voice has a certain resonance about it - a quiver perhaps???

If I was chairman of the Fed though I wouldn't care what the rest of the World thought or believed. I'd tell it like it was.

We make the rules boy... you listen up now!!! Horse ****, bull **** or respectable cow dung, you just keep shovelling till we tell you otherwise. You hearing me loud and clear boy!!!

Here is a long term chart. The DOW has never quite been extended in over sold territory this bad since well before my time... :whistling

Bounce inevitable imo. 6450s or 6019 pretty close to the extreme support line starting from back in 1985 (as in the year not the index :cheesy...

I'm pretty confident we are heading towards 7500 - 8000 - 8400s. This will be anything 2-6 weeks pull back to April...

There you go... necks in the guilloteane...

 

[solentsurfer]

Yes his tone of voice has a certain resonance about it - a quiver perhaps???

If I was chairman of the Fed though I wouldn't care what the rest of the World thought or believed. I'd tell it like it was.

We make the rules boy... you listen up now!!! Horse ****, bull **** or respectable cow dung, you just keep shovelling till we tell you otherwise. You hearing me loud and clear boy!!!

Here is a long term chart. The DOW has never quite been extended in over sold territory this bad since well before my time... :whistling

Bounce inevitable imo. 6450s or 6019 pretty close to the extreme support line starting from back in 1985 (as in the year not the index :cheesy...

I'm pretty confident we are heading towards 7500 - 8000 - 8400s. This will be anything 2-6 weeks pull back to April...

There you go... necks in the guilloteane...

I'm inclined to agree, if you go back a little further you will see we have now dropped below the trendline of where we perhaps should have been in a more sensible world all along.

Additionally, on a much shorter timescale, a nice channel is developing which I'm quite happy to play until we break out of the bottom (or the top). For now 8400 looks entirely possible in the ST to me.

 

[KUTERO]

Close:7395

 

[moonwalker]

you long Kutero? i dont have a position at present.

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

S&P hit 800 and DOW just over 7500 - resistance was seen in this crazy market - market has rallied 20% since lows.

Time for a sell of irrelevant of the Feds desperate moves

 

[KUTERO]

 

[Atilla]

First target - 7500 hit...

Some lateral movement next perhaps. A flag carried forward with a continuation to 7800-8000 levels. We are also about to break above 200 DEMA... May act as resistance but once breached 8000 highly probable.


Not sure about times but I'd look at 7400-200s as buying opportunity for now.


Anything below 7200 would be suspect testing 7000 level and below. I think this is unlikely.

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

Bad News For Bank shares once again........


By Joe Bel Bruno and Maxwell Murphy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Both Citigroup Inc. (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are facing a problem as they try to pay their employees: They're running out of shares.
Both companies in the next few weeks will announce plans to authorize or repurpose shares to have enough stock to compensate employees, people familiar with the matter said. The need to add or free up stock has been exacerbated by plunging share prices for financial companies.
Citi will ask holders to boost its authorized share count far beyond what it needs to meet a capital restructuring announced last month. Morgan Stanley may need to use more of its currently authorized shares for bonus payments, which will require shareholder approval.
The dilemma the companies face reflects the devastation that the bear market has inflicted on their share prices. Lower prices means they must pay out a larger number of shares to meet a given compensation sum. Other companies have run into this problem as well; the problem is more tricky for financial-services companies because their acceptance of government money prevents them from buying back shares to use in compensation.
Analysts believe it isn't just Citi and Morgan Stanley that will be going to shareholders. Others could follow suit in the coming months if banking stocks don't bounce back.
When asking shareholders for authorization, banks "are going to leave the reason very broad and indeterminate so they aren't limited to how they'll ultimately make use of the stock," said Richard X. Bove, an analyst with Rochdale Securities. "But, the critical issue is the market is not going to be receptive to a major stock offering by a bank."
Citigroup is finalizing plans to seek shareholder approval to boost its share authorization to 40 billion shares or more from 15 billion, said two people familiar with the matter. The bank doesn't immediately need all the shares it is requesting since it has 5.5 billion outstanding and needs 16 billion for its capital restructuring.
Citi is requesting the huge overhang in large part to pay out equity-based compensation, say people familiar with the matter.
Shares of Citi were trading just above $3 recently, after having fallen to as low as 97 cents earlier this month.
Morgan Stanley may need to look at expanding its 3.5 billion share authorization in the coming months. More immediately, according to a person familiar with the matter, it is expected to ask shareholders to allow it to use some of the roughly two billion share it has authorized but hasn't yet issued for compensation.
Shares of Morgan Stanley were trading at about $23 on Wednesday, well below the year-ago price of $51.80.
Spokesmen for both Citigroup and Morgan Stanley declined to say exactly how much stock they will need for future compensation payments.
Public companies must specify the reasons for issuing shares, such as the need for compensation, general corporate purposes, or acquisitions. Any changes would require shareholder approval.
One reason banks are finding it harder to grant stock bonuses is the depletion of their treasury stock, which is comprised of previously repurchased shares that are kept on the books for later use.
When companies repurchase shares, they can retire them and take them out of existence or they can place them in treasury. Treasury shares can later be used to pay bonuses, satisfy option exercises and make acquisitions, among other things.
The amount of treasury stock at some of the biggest U.S. banks has been dwindling. Financial companies that accepted bailout money are restricted from freely buying back shares, which leaves them unable to replenish treasury stock.
For example, Citi burned through 261.2 million treasury shares in 2008, leaving it with just 221.7 million for use this year and beyond.
-By Joe Bel Bruno, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4047; [email protected]

 

[Atilla]

Bad News For Bank shares once again........


By Joe Bel Bruno and Maxwell Murphy
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Both Citigroup Inc. (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are facing a problem as they try to pay their employees: They're running out of shares.
Both companies in the next few weeks will announce plans to authorize or repurpose shares to have enough stock to compensate employees, people familiar with the matter said. The need to add or free up stock has been exacerbated by plunging share prices for financial companies.
Citi will ask holders to boost its authorized share count far beyond what it needs to meet a capital restructuring announced last month. Morgan Stanley may need to use more of its currently authorized shares for bonus payments, which will require shareholder approval.
The dilemma the companies face reflects the devastation that the bear market has inflicted on their share prices. Lower prices means they must pay out a larger number of shares to meet a given compensation sum. Other companies have run into this problem as well; the problem is more tricky for financial-services companies because their acceptance of government money prevents them from buying back shares to use in compensation.
Analysts believe it isn't just Citi and Morgan Stanley that will be going to shareholders. Others could follow suit in the coming months if banking stocks don't bounce back.
When asking shareholders for authorization, banks "are going to leave the reason very broad and indeterminate so they aren't limited to how they'll ultimately make use of the stock," said Richard X. Bove, an analyst with Rochdale Securities. "But, the critical issue is the market is not going to be receptive to a major stock offering by a bank."
Citigroup is finalizing plans to seek shareholder approval to boost its share authorization to 40 billion shares or more from 15 billion, said two people familiar with the matter. The bank doesn't immediately need all the shares it is requesting since it has 5.5 billion outstanding and needs 16 billion for its capital restructuring.
Citi is requesting the huge overhang in large part to pay out equity-based compensation, say people familiar with the matter.
Shares of Citi were trading just above $3 recently, after having fallen to as low as 97 cents earlier this month.
Morgan Stanley may need to look at expanding its 3.5 billion share authorization in the coming months. More immediately, according to a person familiar with the matter, it is expected to ask shareholders to allow it to use some of the roughly two billion share it has authorized but hasn't yet issued for compensation.
Shares of Morgan Stanley were trading at about $23 on Wednesday, well below the year-ago price of $51.80.
Spokesmen for both Citigroup and Morgan Stanley declined to say exactly how much stock they will need for future compensation payments.
Public companies must specify the reasons for issuing shares, such as the need for compensation, general corporate purposes, or acquisitions. Any changes would require shareholder approval.
One reason banks are finding it harder to grant stock bonuses is the depletion of their treasury stock, which is comprised of previously repurchased shares that are kept on the books for later use.
When companies repurchase shares, they can retire them and take them out of existence or they can place them in treasury. Treasury shares can later be used to pay bonuses, satisfy option exercises and make acquisitions, among other things.
The amount of treasury stock at some of the biggest U.S. banks has been dwindling. Financial companies that accepted bailout money are restricted from freely buying back shares, which leaves them unable to replenish treasury stock.
For example, Citi burned through 261.2 million treasury shares in 2008, leaving it with just 221.7 million for use this year and beyond.
-By Joe Bel Bruno, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4047; [email protected]

Bad news is good news and good news is bad news.

They want you to sell so you should buy.

Stuff the news...

Follow the price and your MAs imo.

TA rocks and FA sucks big time...

 

[counter_violent]

Something to conjure with.

Dow cash 7,400 level was original drop target level from way back when...that long ago I can't even be bothered looking for the post.

Anyway...tonights FOMC... B S move is likely the PAIN event of the year.

All the short stops taken out.....and tomorrow I expect everyone now long will have their pain.

I favour 400/500 point drop from here.

I could of course be completely wrong

 

[VANTERHEYDEN]

Many Longs are looking at closing their positions at the open today - consensus feels the prices have been bid up way too high.

Expect moves to the downside --- wouldn't surprise me if you get very big move to the downside.

USD/YEN is below 95 from 98 yesterday - it predicted the bear market rally before it happened it is now predicting the sell off - yes yes dollar can only weaken but the economy is screwed and buying at these levels is insane