Afternoon Jerry,
Your sentiment is appreciated.
I must alert you to one contributory factor when considering the Dow Jones 30. The Dow has been in a bull market since 1933, all things being relative, I observe a trend that has not corrected anywhere near the middle of the range. However I understand that your trading strategy is scalping is it not ? There is much noise every day that produces pull backs etc, that can be considered if viewed from a short term perspective, ie 6 month to 6 month or even 5 years to 5 years, heck, I trade them everyday. But if you consider the bigger picture, there has been a trend in place for 75 years that has in no shape or form validated the premise of a return to the middle line, that includes a few so called crashes along the way. If your theory is correct, and I personally take advantage of a similar sentiment, then all things being relative, the Dow is ready to make that journey relative to 1933.
Until the Dow has tanked, and at some point post crash, when some kind of "market equilibrium" is reestablished Gold and Crude are in all probability very safe longs. Iam 100%sure there will be shake outs along the way, and herein maybe the answer. Its all about perception and strategy. Iam looking at the markets from a very long term yearly perspective, relative to many years gone by, and this brings me to my conclusion that Gold and Crude are in no shape or form a market that should be considered for long term shorting. I take into consideration factors as diverse as the evolution of civilisations when considering Gold and Crude, not merely a technical chart. Gold and Crude are longs if I ever seen one, of course quite a substantial chunk of that long has already been and gone, and one can expect a retracement or two in the forms of elliot waves, fibs or whatever mathematical structure you care to follow. I'll be only to pleased to short the minor retracements Jerry
Iam not a bull or bear, Iam both, fluidity. And to be honest, it amazes me how many people try and picture themselves as one or the other.. However having said that, unless one understands where the markets are going long term, you are quite simply trading blind.This itself could lead to a definition on what exactly constitutes as "trading blind" and again, this is quite simply a perception issue. The tenacity of the shift from source A to Gold and Crude is no coincidence, and a much longer term investment than many believe.
