DepthTangent
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Its quite busy on the forum for a saturday night, I cannot help but wonder if there is something fishy going down.
I can accept BAT's point about Mon/Tue might see a minor correction to get us a decent bottom, say 11200ish from which to clamber back to 11500 ish. After all, McHugh has now clocked 8 Hindenburgs in 12 days, so it's not exactly rocket science.
But the BAT style of communication is really beginning to urk me. On the upside, I guess he'll just disappear as quickly as he appeared when he realises that it'snot quite as simple as that.
But the BAT style of communication is really beginning to urk me. On the upside, I guess he'll just disappear as quickly as he appeared when he realises that it'snot quite as simple as that.
Hindenburg Omens !
Have seen various references to the Hindenburg Omen during the course of the past few weeks. As I understand it the criteria used in identifying a Hindenburg Omen 'signal' is based upon a confluence of the following NYSE daily indicators:
1. The number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
2. The NYSE 10 Week MA is rising.
3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative that day.
4. The new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows but it's alright for the reverse to be the case. i.e. new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs.
A confluence of all 4 criteria being validated in one day is considered to constitute a Hindenburg Omen. However there are also references to confimed and unconfirmed omens but I am not certain how one distinguishes between the two !
A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is considered to be a very strong bearish signal of an impending significant correction in the markets (I assume that significant equates to circa 4% or more) but there would seem to be a requirement for a certain number of these omens to be identified within a relatively short timeframe (30 days ?) for it to have validity. However there does not appear to be any specific timeframe between the identification of the necessary number of omens and the commencement of the downward trend that it supposedly forewarns. I have seen 'within the next 4 months' as one timeframe advanced by one protagonist of this particular theory which is not particularly useful other than to indicate caution (which you should observe at all times anyway !)
There also seems to be a considerable amount of deviation between exponents as to the interpretation of the relevant data (I think that the WSJ is used as the prime source) since I have seen claims that there have been between 4 and 9 Omens indentified during April ! This suggests that they are either using different data sources or applying different criteria.
Does anyone here - maybe Jerry Olsen perhaps - have any particular knowledge or insight into this 'signal' or any prior experience of its potential relevance or validity in past trading situations ?
Have seen various references to the Hindenburg Omen during the course of the past few weeks. As I understand it the criteria used in identifying a Hindenburg Omen 'signal' is based upon a confluence of the following NYSE daily indicators:
1. The number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day.
2. The NYSE 10 Week MA is rising.
3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative that day.
4. The new 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows but it's alright for the reverse to be the case. i.e. new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs.
A confluence of all 4 criteria being validated in one day is considered to constitute a Hindenburg Omen. However there are also references to confimed and unconfirmed omens but I am not certain how one distinguishes between the two !
A confirmed Hindenburg Omen is considered to be a very strong bearish signal of an impending significant correction in the markets (I assume that significant equates to circa 4% or more) but there would seem to be a requirement for a certain number of these omens to be identified within a relatively short timeframe (30 days ?) for it to have validity. However there does not appear to be any specific timeframe between the identification of the necessary number of omens and the commencement of the downward trend that it supposedly forewarns. I have seen 'within the next 4 months' as one timeframe advanced by one protagonist of this particular theory which is not particularly useful other than to indicate caution (which you should observe at all times anyway !)
There also seems to be a considerable amount of deviation between exponents as to the interpretation of the relevant data (I think that the WSJ is used as the prime source) since I have seen claims that there have been between 4 and 9 Omens indentified during April ! This suggests that they are either using different data sources or applying different criteria.
Does anyone here - maybe Jerry Olsen perhaps - have any particular knowledge or insight into this 'signal' or any prior experience of its potential relevance or validity in past trading situations ?
DepthTangent
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kriesau, I admire your tenacity to explore uncharted predictive territory, and thus attempt to delineate an outcome that you can subsequently pursue as a profitable endeavour. Personally, I think there are easier ways to predict and calculate such a percentage market correction, and I'am sure the 10 day SMA newbies are inspired ! 
The US Debt Bubble !
By Danny Schechter
April 25th 2006
When I started out, my film was going to be about other people’s economic woes. Pretty soon I realized I was part of this story of how the credit industry targets poor and middle-class Americans. There is a credit divide in America that fuels our economic divide. Put another way, the globalization of our economy is about more than outsourcing of jobs. There is a deeper shift underway from a society based around production to a culture driven by consumption, with the mall as its dominant icon. My film, titled In Debt We Trust, combines story telling with investigative inquiry. It’s about a nation where our credit score is the only score many people and institutions care about, and where vast data bases record our every purchase and consumer choice. Ours has become a nation in which the carrot of instant affluence is quickly menaced by the harsh stick of bill collectors, lawsuits, and foreclosures.
And yet, this bubble can burst: The slickest of our bankers and the savviest of our marketers have not been able to undo the law of gravity, that what goes up must come down.
In the old days the poor couldn’t qualify for loans. Today, they are considered among the better risks because unlike the rich many feel an obligation to pay back, because of their own sense of values or background they’re not likely to declare bankruptcy again. Given the change of laws that’s more difficult anyway. Manufacturers now know they can spur sales by lending money to buyers up front and then get them to pay twice—first at the register, then with credit card payments and big compounded interest rates. Class struggle is assuming a new form in the conflict between creditors and lenders that reaches into many Americans’ homes, where each month bills are juggled and rejuggled with today’s credit card bills paid by tomorrow’s new card. Meanwhile, with interest compounding at usurious rates, indebt ness grows and people sink even deeper into debts they cannot manage. In this conflict, companies function as well-organized machines while borrowers are forced to react as individuals.
Centuries ago, we had debtors prisons. Today, many homes BECOME similar kinds of prisons, where debtors struggle with personal finance issues. The scale of indebtedness is staggering as consumers simply follow their government’s lead. As of Christmas 2005 the national debt stood at: $8,179,165,267,626.42. Break that down and each American’s share comes to $27,439.48, and our nation’s debt increases $2.83 billion each day. Add two trillion more for consumer debt including mortgages - that’s a lot of money !
Who is really responsible for it? Few of us seem to know. And fewer appear to know what can be done about it. “They’re never going to be repaid,” says economic historian Michael Hudson who for many years worked at Chase Bank. “Adam Smith said that no government had ever repaid its debts and the same can be said of the private sector. The U.S. government does not intend to repay its trillion dollar debt to foreign central banks and, even if it did intend to, there’s no way in which it could. Most of the corporations now are avoiding paying their pension fund debts and their health care debts.”
The government and big companies might not have to pay, but regular people do, as our collective consumer debt has doubled to the past ten years. With mortgage debt included, it’s now reached seven trillion dollars. Hudson compares the plight of millions of debtors in the United States to serfs of an age gone by: “For many people, debts now absorb 40 percent of their income. So many people are paying all of their take home wages over and above basic expenses for debt service. And that’s rising. In effect, 90 percent of the American population is indebted to the top 10 percent of the population.”
The coffers of creditors – funded by the most prestigious banks and financial institutions – are swelling with payments for arbitrarily imposed late fees and RISING interest rates that seem to be largely unregulated. Borrowing is now a national habit. Fueling this shift globally has been our national debt—now in the trillions—as other countries finance our trade imbalances and keep our economy strong. Without that influx of money, the U.S. economy would be in crisis. Everyone in the know knows this, but they do little to deal with it, relying on the theory that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Occasional warnings and lots of noise surface about cutting the government’s annual deficit, including a devastating report by Comptroller General Davis Walker, who compares the United States today to Rome before its fall. He is dismissed as a “prophet of gloom" and barely covered in the press while our debts keep growing. All of this borrowed money keeps people pacified and, for the most part, politically complacent for now..
What happens to employees laid off in this environment? They enter what insiders in the credit business call “the turnstyle,” living on more credit from more cards soon followed by a dip into home equity. Nor have wages and benefits kept up with inflation and many are being cut. Health care extensions after the job are over within a year and then what? What’s the alternative? More debt is one of the few accessible options. The turnstyle keeps turning as personal debt keeps growing.
Filmmaker Danny Schechter, a 1978 Nieman Fellow, is the author of two new books, “The Death of The Media” and “When News Lies.” A former producer at CNN and ABC News, he is now executive producer at Globalvision.Inc.
By Danny Schechter
April 25th 2006
When I started out, my film was going to be about other people’s economic woes. Pretty soon I realized I was part of this story of how the credit industry targets poor and middle-class Americans. There is a credit divide in America that fuels our economic divide. Put another way, the globalization of our economy is about more than outsourcing of jobs. There is a deeper shift underway from a society based around production to a culture driven by consumption, with the mall as its dominant icon. My film, titled In Debt We Trust, combines story telling with investigative inquiry. It’s about a nation where our credit score is the only score many people and institutions care about, and where vast data bases record our every purchase and consumer choice. Ours has become a nation in which the carrot of instant affluence is quickly menaced by the harsh stick of bill collectors, lawsuits, and foreclosures.
And yet, this bubble can burst: The slickest of our bankers and the savviest of our marketers have not been able to undo the law of gravity, that what goes up must come down.
In the old days the poor couldn’t qualify for loans. Today, they are considered among the better risks because unlike the rich many feel an obligation to pay back, because of their own sense of values or background they’re not likely to declare bankruptcy again. Given the change of laws that’s more difficult anyway. Manufacturers now know they can spur sales by lending money to buyers up front and then get them to pay twice—first at the register, then with credit card payments and big compounded interest rates. Class struggle is assuming a new form in the conflict between creditors and lenders that reaches into many Americans’ homes, where each month bills are juggled and rejuggled with today’s credit card bills paid by tomorrow’s new card. Meanwhile, with interest compounding at usurious rates, indebt ness grows and people sink even deeper into debts they cannot manage. In this conflict, companies function as well-organized machines while borrowers are forced to react as individuals.
Centuries ago, we had debtors prisons. Today, many homes BECOME similar kinds of prisons, where debtors struggle with personal finance issues. The scale of indebtedness is staggering as consumers simply follow their government’s lead. As of Christmas 2005 the national debt stood at: $8,179,165,267,626.42. Break that down and each American’s share comes to $27,439.48, and our nation’s debt increases $2.83 billion each day. Add two trillion more for consumer debt including mortgages - that’s a lot of money !
Who is really responsible for it? Few of us seem to know. And fewer appear to know what can be done about it. “They’re never going to be repaid,” says economic historian Michael Hudson who for many years worked at Chase Bank. “Adam Smith said that no government had ever repaid its debts and the same can be said of the private sector. The U.S. government does not intend to repay its trillion dollar debt to foreign central banks and, even if it did intend to, there’s no way in which it could. Most of the corporations now are avoiding paying their pension fund debts and their health care debts.”
The government and big companies might not have to pay, but regular people do, as our collective consumer debt has doubled to the past ten years. With mortgage debt included, it’s now reached seven trillion dollars. Hudson compares the plight of millions of debtors in the United States to serfs of an age gone by: “For many people, debts now absorb 40 percent of their income. So many people are paying all of their take home wages over and above basic expenses for debt service. And that’s rising. In effect, 90 percent of the American population is indebted to the top 10 percent of the population.”
The coffers of creditors – funded by the most prestigious banks and financial institutions – are swelling with payments for arbitrarily imposed late fees and RISING interest rates that seem to be largely unregulated. Borrowing is now a national habit. Fueling this shift globally has been our national debt—now in the trillions—as other countries finance our trade imbalances and keep our economy strong. Without that influx of money, the U.S. economy would be in crisis. Everyone in the know knows this, but they do little to deal with it, relying on the theory that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Occasional warnings and lots of noise surface about cutting the government’s annual deficit, including a devastating report by Comptroller General Davis Walker, who compares the United States today to Rome before its fall. He is dismissed as a “prophet of gloom" and barely covered in the press while our debts keep growing. All of this borrowed money keeps people pacified and, for the most part, politically complacent for now..
What happens to employees laid off in this environment? They enter what insiders in the credit business call “the turnstyle,” living on more credit from more cards soon followed by a dip into home equity. Nor have wages and benefits kept up with inflation and many are being cut. Health care extensions after the job are over within a year and then what? What’s the alternative? More debt is one of the few accessible options. The turnstyle keeps turning as personal debt keeps growing.
Filmmaker Danny Schechter, a 1978 Nieman Fellow, is the author of two new books, “The Death of The Media” and “When News Lies.” A former producer at CNN and ABC News, he is now executive producer at Globalvision.Inc.
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I'm sure that there are ! However, my enquiry was to elicit anyones previous personal knowledge or experience of the Hindenburg Omen concept to determine whether it had any prior validity or not !DepthTangent said:Personally, I think there are easier ways to predict and calculate such a percentage market correction, and I'am sure the 10 day SMA newbies are inspired !
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Jerry Olson
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kriesau said:
Hi Kriesau
I have heard of it over the years but have no clue about the triggers or signals.
from the cheap seasts we are probably ready to rally ahead of the FOMC date and then we'll see...
Barrons bothered me a bit with that DOW 12,000 cover...man the contrarian in me wants to start to think short.........................
DepthTangent
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Jerry Olson said:Barrons bothered me a bit with that DOW 12,000 cover...man the contrarian in me wants to start to think short.........................
Is that an intuitive energy bubbling to the surface ?
You know how the market works, perhaps a shift of buying lows to shorting highs (even in a bull market) is the most prudent strategy during any period that has the potential to be "choppy". Afterall, the black swan never swims upstream
DepthTangent
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kriesau said:
Ok Sir ! I think I understand
leovirgo
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Jerry Olson
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DepthTangent said:Is that an intuitive energy bubbling to the surface ?
You know how the market works, perhaps a shift of buying lows to shorting highs (even in a bull market) is the most prudent strategy during any period that has the potential to be "choppy". Afterall, the black swan never swims upstream
Hi DT
i dislike any overly bullish or bearish leanings. When the perverbial crowd is leaning too far one way or the other i want to head for the exits.
I like going against the mainstream thinking all the time...
I am still bullish for the next 2 weeks, once the FED makes their play we shall see how the street reacts to the news...
then as usual i play caboose, i follow merrily along being dragged by the force of the trend in either direction.
i learned the hard way never guess, speculate or predict, it's totaly meaningless drivel..
of course we do have opinions, and we all know what there worth...............................
have a nice evening
Jerry Olson
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leovirgo said:Sure, that could wake the hibernating bears. After all it's spring time.
Hi Leovirgo
yeah that';s it.. Almost as bad as Business week covers..............
Chocolate
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Thanks Don for the message! It really isn't very clear is it ...? Maybe they diverge sometimes, but never more than some given percentage, and even if true this is really only useful in the very long term.
There's one seemingly straightforward explanation: high interest rates is bad for DOW (why invest when a bank gives so much interest), good for dollar (shows the economy is strong) and conversely for low interest rates. The curious thing is that the we have high interest rates and it's the dollar which is depressed nonetheless and the DOW is relatively happy.
And I really don't get what triggers a gold rush when every major economy in the world is doing ok (for the moment). If we did have a minor correction now, it would be a curious case of an effect producing a cause - nervousness belatedly causing a correction rather than correction causing nervousness.
Your short will be _very_ safe because BAT said so :^D. I'm flat until after the crash...I want a slow and steady train up rather than a bungee jump down! I'd sure take the bungee if I were confident in its safety, but I'm not privy to these super indicators that rule the world!
There's one seemingly straightforward explanation: high interest rates is bad for DOW (why invest when a bank gives so much interest), good for dollar (shows the economy is strong) and conversely for low interest rates. The curious thing is that the we have high interest rates and it's the dollar which is depressed nonetheless and the DOW is relatively happy.
And I really don't get what triggers a gold rush when every major economy in the world is doing ok (for the moment). If we did have a minor correction now, it would be a curious case of an effect producing a cause - nervousness belatedly causing a correction rather than correction causing nervousness.
Your short will be _very_ safe because BAT said so :^D. I'm flat until after the crash...I want a slow and steady train up rather than a bungee jump down! I'd sure take the bungee if I were confident in its safety, but I'm not privy to these super indicators that rule the world!
Racer
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BRUSSELS (AFX) - The European Commission said it has increased the range of US imports hit by retaliatory tariffs, after a US program was deemed illegal by the World Trade Organisation.
The additional tariffs of 15 pct will be extended to eight new products ranging from different types of blankets and paper to photocopying apparatus and drills, the commission said in a statement.
The extension will take the total value of duties to 36.9 mln usd in the 12 months from May 1, up from 27.8 mln in the previous 12-month period, it said.
The EU said the measures would counter US government payments to American companies estimated to be worth more than 2 bln usd over the next two budget years, ending 2008.
The US payments are part of a law known as the Byrd amendment, which allows American companies to receive proceeds from antidumping duties levied on foreign rivals.
'As long as the distributions continue, the United States will not be in compliance with WTO rules,' the commission said.
The additional tariffs of 15 pct will be extended to eight new products ranging from different types of blankets and paper to photocopying apparatus and drills, the commission said in a statement.
The extension will take the total value of duties to 36.9 mln usd in the 12 months from May 1, up from 27.8 mln in the previous 12-month period, it said.
The EU said the measures would counter US government payments to American companies estimated to be worth more than 2 bln usd over the next two budget years, ending 2008.
The US payments are part of a law known as the Byrd amendment, which allows American companies to receive proceeds from antidumping duties levied on foreign rivals.
'As long as the distributions continue, the United States will not be in compliance with WTO rules,' the commission said.