macbonzo
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I think the figure is being revised up. My figure is from last week.
Just to change the subject, I notice the price of oil up to $68.55. If I were Bush, I would stop sabre rattling, because unless this price comes down, we are going to seen economic consequences. Over the last 3 weeks we haven't had NYMEX crude below $65. It is certainly not a supply issue, but even if Iran were to stop exports for 2 weeks, I think we could see $95.
Just to change the subject, I notice the price of oil up to $68.55. If I were Bush, I would stop sabre rattling, because unless this price comes down, we are going to seen economic consequences. Over the last 3 weeks we haven't had NYMEX crude below $65. It is certainly not a supply issue, but even if Iran were to stop exports for 2 weeks, I think we could see $95.
solentsurfer
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I have a feeling it will have another pop at it before close
solentsurfer
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Falling oil price probably gave it a leg up
starspacer
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Think I'll cash in now before the BEAR is back.
Racer
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briefing.com bond market update
Trade Gets Blip on Data: The market has been having trouble getting its direction on, with an improvement in jobless claims, but a slap lower on productivity trade is still muddled. The curve remains inverted with the 2-10-yr yield spread sitting near -1.5, taking it to the deepest inversion since late Dec. The market last saw an extended inversion back in 2000 & may be poised to hold inversion for a stretch
Trade Gets Blip on Data: The market has been having trouble getting its direction on, with an improvement in jobless claims, but a slap lower on productivity trade is still muddled. The curve remains inverted with the 2-10-yr yield spread sitting near -1.5, taking it to the deepest inversion since late Dec. The market last saw an extended inversion back in 2000 & may be poised to hold inversion for a stretch
mark twain uk
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nice drop :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:
macbonzo
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Yes it was. I'd be a bit careful here. It might be possible to cover here and get short again tomorrow from a better level. I see NYMEX is $65.60 (down from an intraday high yesterday of $69). This will knock the oil sector on the S&P for a while but should be a positive for the market as a whole as the day wears on. The other point is tomorrow's Non Farms could be a very big number.
Good luck to all.
Good luck to all.
starspacer
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Anyone positioned for a negative number?macbonzo said:
The BEAR is back and he ain't gonna be cuddly...:cheesy:
'Lucky' I exited that position last night.
The Dollar is DOOMED.
mark twain uk
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well, I closed both my dow and sp shorts for a (very) tidy profit :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy: and I will look for another entry later today, early tomorrow
macbonzo
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starspacer said:Anyone positioned for a negative number?
The BEAR is back and he ain't gonna be cuddly...:cheesy:
'Lucky' I exited that position last night.
The Dollar is DOOMED.
A bad figure would be one that it either too strong (above 300K) which would indicate wage inflation, or too weak (under 150K) which would suggest slow growth.
It's a notoriously volatile figure, but, most of the Street is looking for a big figure. I think it is a case because the last figure was weak, so this one should be strong.
January Job Gains in U.S. Likely Reached 250,000, Survey Says
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- American employers added workers in January as the U.S. economy strengthened and builders took advantage of unseasonably warm weather to start projects, economists said ahead of a government report today. Employers added 250,000 workers to their payrolls last month, more than double the 108,000 in December and the best January since 2000, according to the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate may have held at 4.9 percent, matching a four-year low. Improving job prospects are lifting consumers' spirits and will help propel spending and growth in coming months, economists said. Retail employment jumped as Americans spent their holiday gift certificates and factory employment rose for a fourth straight month, the first time that's happened in almost eight years, according to the forecasts.
The Labor Department is scheduled to release its report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts for payroll growth ranged from 175,000 jobs to 350,000. Estimates for the unemployment rate ranged from 4.8 percent to 5 percent.
Also today, an industry report is expected to show U.S. service businesses expanded in January at almost the same rate as the previous month, as job gains promoted a jump in spending. The 10 a.m. report from the Institute for Supply Management in Tempe, Arizona, may show its non-manufacturing index slipped to 60 from 61, according to the survey median. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Other reports are expected to show consumer sentiment improved last month and factory orders rose in December for a third month.
Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate this week, saying high fuel prices and lack of spare capacity threatened to stoke inflation. Low unemployment is one signal that capacity is being used up and may prompt the Fed to raise the target again on March 28, economists said. That meeting will be the first under Ben S. Bernanke, who took over as Fed chairman today after Alan Greenspan retired. The Fed's rate will reach 5 percent, up from the current 4.5 percent, according to a forecast by economists at JPMorgan Chase in New York. ``That's based partly on the view that core inflation goes up from here and partly on the view that job growth is strong,'' said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase.
Average hourly earnings probably rose 0.3 percent in January, matching the previous month's gain, the Bloomberg survey showed. That would put the increase over the last 12 months at 3.1 percent, matching the December rise as the biggest in almost three years. Average weekly hours worked probably rose by 6 minutes to 33.8 hours, economists said. Retail payrolls probably rose by 25,000 last month and 35,000 more construction workers found jobs, according to a forecast by economists at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. Because weather played a key role in boosting jobs, it will be difficult to interpret last month's rebound in hiring, economist Mellman said. ``It's not going to be easy to unravel the extent to which strong January payrolls reflect temporary influences as opposed to underlying strength,'' he said.
Last month was the warmest January in 112 years, according to Weather Trends International, a Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania-based weather consulting firm. Weather aside, other surveys suggest hiring is improving. Consumer confidence rose in January to the highest level since June 2002 and the percentage of people finding jobs plentiful was the highest since the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the New York-based Conference Board reported yesterday. .
Chief executives are more confident about the U.S. economy and plan to increase investment and hire additional workers, according to a monthly survey released last week by Chief Executive magazine. The magazine's CEO confidence index rose to the highest since the survey was started in 2002. Manufacturing employment last month probably rose by 7,000 workers, according to the median estimate. Factories have been boosting payrolls since October, the longest string of gains since an eight-month stretch ended in March 1998.
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- American employers added workers in January as the U.S. economy strengthened and builders took advantage of unseasonably warm weather to start projects, economists said ahead of a government report today. Employers added 250,000 workers to their payrolls last month, more than double the 108,000 in December and the best January since 2000, according to the median forecast of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate may have held at 4.9 percent, matching a four-year low. Improving job prospects are lifting consumers' spirits and will help propel spending and growth in coming months, economists said. Retail employment jumped as Americans spent their holiday gift certificates and factory employment rose for a fourth straight month, the first time that's happened in almost eight years, according to the forecasts.
The Labor Department is scheduled to release its report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts for payroll growth ranged from 175,000 jobs to 350,000. Estimates for the unemployment rate ranged from 4.8 percent to 5 percent.
Also today, an industry report is expected to show U.S. service businesses expanded in January at almost the same rate as the previous month, as job gains promoted a jump in spending. The 10 a.m. report from the Institute for Supply Management in Tempe, Arizona, may show its non-manufacturing index slipped to 60 from 61, according to the survey median. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Other reports are expected to show consumer sentiment improved last month and factory orders rose in December for a third month.
Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate this week, saying high fuel prices and lack of spare capacity threatened to stoke inflation. Low unemployment is one signal that capacity is being used up and may prompt the Fed to raise the target again on March 28, economists said. That meeting will be the first under Ben S. Bernanke, who took over as Fed chairman today after Alan Greenspan retired. The Fed's rate will reach 5 percent, up from the current 4.5 percent, according to a forecast by economists at JPMorgan Chase in New York. ``That's based partly on the view that core inflation goes up from here and partly on the view that job growth is strong,'' said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan Chase.
Average hourly earnings probably rose 0.3 percent in January, matching the previous month's gain, the Bloomberg survey showed. That would put the increase over the last 12 months at 3.1 percent, matching the December rise as the biggest in almost three years. Average weekly hours worked probably rose by 6 minutes to 33.8 hours, economists said. Retail payrolls probably rose by 25,000 last month and 35,000 more construction workers found jobs, according to a forecast by economists at Lehman Brothers Inc. in New York. Because weather played a key role in boosting jobs, it will be difficult to interpret last month's rebound in hiring, economist Mellman said. ``It's not going to be easy to unravel the extent to which strong January payrolls reflect temporary influences as opposed to underlying strength,'' he said.
Last month was the warmest January in 112 years, according to Weather Trends International, a Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania-based weather consulting firm. Weather aside, other surveys suggest hiring is improving. Consumer confidence rose in January to the highest level since June 2002 and the percentage of people finding jobs plentiful was the highest since the September 2001 terrorist attacks, the New York-based Conference Board reported yesterday. .
Chief executives are more confident about the U.S. economy and plan to increase investment and hire additional workers, according to a monthly survey released last week by Chief Executive magazine. The magazine's CEO confidence index rose to the highest since the survey was started in 2002. Manufacturing employment last month probably rose by 7,000 workers, according to the median estimate. Factories have been boosting payrolls since October, the longest string of gains since an eight-month stretch ended in March 1998.
Mr De-o-luxe
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Right , so what happens if the figure just happens to be a Goldlocks.
Mr De-o-luxe
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goldlocks = goldielocks