Do you have an "edge" in your trading?

[marketpupil]

I guess you could say I review it, but its obvious when my method isn't working, because my account balance shrinks! lol
Any problems are generally never a failure of my making, in the sense that over time the one thing that I am good at is following a method. So when i hit a drawdown, its because my method isn't working.
I dont know how i'd be able to spot systematic market changes so id always assume that bad results are simply due to the weakness in my strategy.

Im up to 85 trades now.
Does anyone think I definitely do or do NOT have an edge?
I dont but then I find it hard to believe anyone can have an edge when looking at the same thing that every other 'trader' is looking at. I think an 'edge' is something reserved for the 'big boys'

maybe ill start my own thread when(if) i get to a few hundred trades with this strategy

You can certainly have an edge even if you are using the same tools as everyone else. The trick is know how to properly use the tools you have available to you. Think of it like this:
Everyone has a camera, but not everyone can be a successful photographer.

Those who are successful simply know how to use their tools better than others.

 

[Pazienza]

You can certainly have an edge even if you are using the same tools as everyone else. The trick is know how to properly use the tools you have available to you. Think of it like this:
Everyone has a camera, but not everyone can be a successful photographer.

Those who are successful simply know how to use their tools better than others.

Good post .

 

[brettus]

Good post .

​

It's not the size. It's how you use it.

 

[Naz]

You can certainly have an edge even if you are using the same tools as everyone else. The trick is know how to properly use the tools you have available to you. Think of it like this:
Everyone has a camera, but not everyone can be a successful photographer.

Those who are successful simply know how to use their tools better than others.

Good post.

 

[redart]

So do I have an edge according to them 85 trades, or could the same results be had from flipping a coin?
How many more trades should one have before they can begin to analyse the results to see if your are on to something? What would be statistically significant?
Are results alone enough to conclude you have an edge?

 

[meanreversion]

An edge is just your ability to convince yourself and other people that you have an edge. You may reach this point after ten trades, a thousand trades, or never.

 

[Barramundi]

So do I have an edge according to them 85 trades, or could the same results be had from flipping a coin?
How many more trades should one have before they can begin to analyse the results to see if your are on to something? What would be statistically significant?
Are results alone enough to conclude you have an edge?

I say that results alone should determine whether you have an edge, and how 'sharp' that edge is. An analysis of the 85 trades would reveal important stats like your win rate, size of the wins compared to the losses etc. You should then be able to calculate your expectancy.

I think 85 is a fairly reasonable number to get an idea, but whether you have an edge or not at a statistically significant figure - by that I mean how likely is it that you could have achieved a similar result by random coin flips, you can't say without actually doing the math. And that takes a little time...not much, but a little.

 

[moby1]

Everyone has his own trading edge but you must see this Trading on the edge VIDEO.
It is about rat used for trading and they call him rat-trader.

 

[moby1]

Don't think that rat is more clever than a human it is exact the opposite.
Human is to smart and because of that he likes to complicate things and rat keeps everything simple.

 

[jimbo22]

That's similar to one from a golfer (I forget who).

The more I practise, the luckier I get!

Gary Player

 

[worldtrader1982]

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[tdrtw]

>>Perhaps I can get a better handle on the concept if I had a concrete example. I'd appreciated it if some here can provide an example of a trading strategy that has an edge, describe that edge and how it's exploited

Back to the original post, I would characterize my edge as "unquestioning ability to stick to my predefined rules, money management and risk control"

It's an edge that constantly needs monitoring as it's one of the hardest things I've come to do, and it seemed so simple at the very beginning in a paper trading account.

 

[HowardCohodas]

>>Perhaps I can get a better handle on the concept if I had a concrete example. I'd appreciated it if some here can provide an example of a trading strategy that has an edge, describe that edge and how it's exploited

Back to the original post, I would characterize my edge as "unquestioning ability to stick to my predefined rules, money management and risk control"

It's an edge that constantly needs monitoring as it's one of the hardest things I've come to do, and it seemed so simple at the very beginning in a paper trading account.

Making my trades public goes a long way to making it easy to stick to my rules. I fear public ridicule.

 

[tdrtw]

>>Making my trades public goes a long way to making it easy to stick to my rules. I fear public ridicule

Excellent idea. I will not make the error of asking you "how much money have you made this year", but rather "have you followed your own set of rules for the year?".

Non Trading people like to know $$$, so I will tell them what they want to hear (my favorite is "I only lost $X today!", that shuts them up quickly

If someone ever asks, "have you deviated from your system yet this year?", I think I would bow down at their feet and say "finally someone gets it" !

 

[HowardCohodas]

>>Making my trades public goes a long way to making it easy to stick to my rules. I fear public ridicule

Excellent idea. I will not make the error of asking you "how much money have you made this year", but rather "have you followed your own set of rules for the year?".

Non Trading people like to know $$$, so I will tell them what they want to hear (my favorite is "I only lost $X today!", that shuts them up quickly

If someone ever asks, "have you deviated from your system yet this year?", I think I would bow down at their feet and say "finally someone gets it" !

I never disclose amount of money, but I have said elsewhere on this forum that I make my living trading credit spreads. I have also said elsewhere that I have averaged 10.6% month on month returns for the six months I have been trading this strategy.

My signature contains links to my journal.