Direction is everything.

scose-no-doubt said:
I'm not northernist im from the north. Just imagine her with a sexy french accent though. oooof.

skin on her face is too tight but still winkly. now two years ago... or even when she did that video with riva... kylie was better back then though.
Click to expand...

But according to one of the Girls Aloud videos, she "Can't Speak French"?

Kylie looked good on X last weekend, amazing how long her career has lasted given her total inability to sing...!! She has a lot to thank Pete Waterman for.
 
I don't really understand those who say trend following isn't about having an opinion on direction. Sure you wait until the trend signal is there (which could be in either direction) but once it does you have an opinion. I suspect it is just a different definition of the word 'opinion'. If I am trading and I enter short, then I have an opinion that it is 'going down' (obviously there are stops and targets which make it more complicated), otherwise I wouldn't have taken the trade. Not only is that an opinion, but I've put money on it and declared it. Now if 5 minutes later I see something which makes me think I should be long, then I get out and go long. My opinion is now that it is going up. Is this what you mean by not having an opinion? To me this is havign an opinion but being able to change your mind based on what occurs.

Aside from various option strategies based on volatility or movement in either direction, I don't understand how you can trade in one direction and say you don't have an opinion. If you don't have an opinion, don't take the trade.
 
Shakone said:
Aside from various option strategies based on volatility or movement in either direction, I don't understand how you can trade in one direction and say you don't have an opinion. If you don't have an opinion, don't take the trade.
Click to expand...

This is not about semantics.

For example, my short term system is currently short EUR/USD. Am I of the opinion that EUR/USD is going down? Actually, no, I happen to think it might rally (that's my opinion). Furthermore, because this system is fully automated, it sometimes trades when I'm asleep, and I'm pretty sure I don't have an opinion on FX then.

Does my opinion of direction have any bearing on the profitability of my system? No. In fact, my opinion is redundant. What I DO believe (or hope to be the case) is that markets move sufficiently for my breakout system to make money over time. Right now, I would like for EUR/USD to move lower, but that's not an "opinion".
 
Shakone, did you watch this clip?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=746644955

The man who manages $13 bn of money repeatedly states he has no opinion on direction.

(this excerpt from Hedge Funds Review)

The strategy is primarily trend following.

Winton, with over $13 billion in assets under management, has a 12-year track record in managed futures. The Winton Diversified Program has reported an annualised return of 17.07% from its inception in October 1997 to end May 2010.
 
meanreversion said:
Furthermore, because this system is fully automated, it sometimes trades when I'm asleep, and I'm pretty sure I don't have an opinion on FX then.
Click to expand...

If you're not dreaming of profitable trades when you're alseep then how can you call yourself a real trader :LOL:

Peter
 
meanreversion, you say it is not semantics, but then your answer reveals that it is. You have an opinion (it is not a fact) that the markets move sufficiently for your breakout system to make money, right? It isn't directional at this stage. But that means once it has broken down, your opinion is that it will move down sufficiently so that given your risk:reward, you will make money in the long run. Again this is an opinion not a fact. You may think in the mean time it will pullback and go in the opposite direction for a while, but that's not changing your overall probabilistic opinion of the result of the trade is it? Otherwise, why stay in? Why not wait for that pullback and THEN go short?

If I'm waiting for a setup, I don't have a preference which way it will go. Once it triggers an entry, my opinion (based on experience and how I believe the markets move) is that the higher probability (expectation) play is in the direction I'm trading. Otherwise I wouldn't trade that way. Whether you call it opinion, or view, or hypothesis, or higher probability, or your systems directional choice, it is all the same.
 
meanreversion said:
Shakone, did you watch this clip?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=746644955

The man who manages $13 bn of money repeatedly states he has no opinion on direction.

(this excerpt from Hedge Funds Review)

The strategy is primarily trend following.

Winton, with over $13 billion in assets under management, has a 12-year track record in managed futures. The Winton Diversified Program has reported an annualised return of 17.07% from its inception in October 1997 to end May 2010.
Click to expand...

Yes I watched it MR. And he says he takes directional plays. He has quantitative methods for deciding the probabilities of direction, and then he trades based on those. He doesn't have an initial opinion, but he does take directional trades. So he does have a directional bias/opinion, it is just based on probabilities and not gut.
 
Shakone said:
I don't really understand those who say trend following isn't about having an opinion on direction. Sure you wait until the trend signal is there (which could be in either direction) but once it does you have an opinion. I suspect it is just a different definition of the word 'opinion'. If I am trading and I enter short, then I have an opinion that it is 'going down' (obviously there are stops and targets which make it more complicated), otherwise I wouldn't have taken the trade. Not only is that an opinion, but I've put money on it and declared it. Now if 5 minutes later I see something which makes me think I should be long, then I get out and go long. My opinion is now that it is going up. Is this what you mean by not having an opinion? To me this is havign an opinion but being able to change your mind based on what occurs.

Aside from various option strategies based on volatility or movement in either direction, I don't understand how you can trade in one direction and say you don't have an opinion. If you don't have an opinion, don't take the trade.
Click to expand...

After reading many of your posts I like your posting style: no nonsense, cut right to the chase, sensible
Keep it up, it's refreshing.

Peter
 
Splitlink said:
I think that the market is random in the low time frames but not in the higher ones. Lower TF traders use closer stops.
Click to expand...

My opinion is that this it not the case.

Lower timeframes - stocks and futures - are in my opinion easier to trade as they are more predictable but you cannot trade them based solely on price data.

So - if you are 'charts only', looking at this level will make little sense/
 
meanreversion said:
Sorry, but I strongly disagree with this statement. The very essence of trend following is NOT having an opinion on direction. My system has put me into several trades recently which I've thought were doomed to end in failure (e.g. short natural gas about two months ago), but which ended up making money.

If you are a trend follower, or trade breakouts, your opinion is that markets will be volatile. It is emphatically not an opinion on the market's direction.
Click to expand...

Opinion-shminion ?

Being a bit anal aren't we ?

I think the point is valid - you need a way to predict direction if you are trading outright positions. This prediction may come from a mechanical system or it may come from discretion or a mixture of the two.
 
wackypete2 said:
Interesting debate. Generally, trading with the trend is easier, but successful scalpers can pick off nickels and dimes in the lower TF's regardless of which direction the market will ultimately head. Of course, unsuccessful scalpers GET picked off.... no one said it was easy!

Peter
Click to expand...

Trend trading is for bag holders.

Take the ES. Most days it makes some very nice intra-day rotations. It reaches a point and reverses, often violently and often to the opposite extreme of the day or prior day.

Now - by 'trading the trend', you discount yourself from getting in at this reversal point. You immediately put yourself in with a more mediochre group of traders that wait for the next pullback and have less profits and larger stops.

When this market reverses, it is not because of people 'following the trend', there is obviously something that causes the reversal at this point. It is obvious that the balance of money it takes to move the market has suddenly changed in favour of the opposite direction. It becomes VERY obvious when the market gets to the opposite extreme that the smartest traders were those that participated in the reversal. It is also true that those who need the most confirmation of the trend will be the ones holding the bag when the market reverses again as they got in last.

Of course, one conventional piece of trading wisdom is "never catch a falling knife" but we should consider the fact that a bunch of people are getting in at the reversal points and a bunch of people are getting out too.

So whilst conventional wisdom says you can't get in at these points, it's pretty obvious that some people are...
 
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