Day Trading Oil - Risk Awareness?

[glyder]

For some reason I started day trading oil recently, on my usual method,
price action just off the charts. I like the price action on oil and number of opportunities it offers during the day so thought I should get a bit more comprehensive understanding of surrounding factors that can affect the market, mainly short term.

I;m mainly concerned about short sharp shock type announcements to watch for / avoid rather than the longer term fundies.
I've got the following so far would appreciate if anyone can add to them

US Inventory Anouncements
OPEC announcements, guesstimates on supplies
and decisions to pump more / less
(are these structured with a particular timing? )
Non Farms figures seems to affect oil price.
Some announcement at 4.00PM last Thursday, not sure what it was.

middle east troubles
terrorist incidents (imagine AQ attack on Saudi facilities!)
international politics / wars


I guess longer term fundies are the rise of the big new economies affecting
supply & demand, weakening influence of the US & Dollar, and less relevant till they happen peak oil (yawn),
and substitution energy developments.These don't affect short term trades much

Are there any other main announcements?
I've not seen any announcements from Russia, Norway, Venezuela, Brazil
affecting the price, are they big players but generally not price setters tagging along with OPEC?

Anything anyone can add will be appreciated.

 

[ikarus_wolf]

Hi,
I think your list is pretty comprehensive. I'm a futures oil trader and use everything you've listed. I have a few extras you may want to consider also.

The API (American Petroleum Institute) Inventory Estimates - Out the evening before the DOE Inventories.
Initial Jobless Claims (US).
GDP figures for US and EU (monthly / quarterly).
Inflation US and EU (monthly / quarterly).
Basically anything that would affect oil demand. Manufacturing figures in the US can also have an effect at times. Things like Redbook or Factory Orders.
Good luck with the trading. Oil is a great product but can very totally unpredictable at times.

What do you usually trade?

 

[glyder]

Hi Mr Wolf,
Thanks very much for your feeback - comforting to know I am on the right lines.
I generally trade currencies. Icut back lately to gbpusd, eurusd and eurjpy.
I've been moving from longer term (daily) to shorter term.
So far so good. And I like oil, as well as its daily price action it seems to have a
fairly long trading day with reasonable moves from 9.30AM - 7.30PM.
Anyway, I've only been looking at it for a month or so.

 

[DashRiprock]

you should as well keep eye on crack spreads

and as well there is something like "driving season" in the US

 

[glyder]

Cheers DR Rock.
I'll bear it in mind.

 

[ikarus_wolf]

Oil offers a long trading day as it opens with the EU and closes with the US. I'm assuming you're based in the UK. The Inter Continental Exchange Brent Oil Futures contracts settle at 7.30pm so there is always volatility then.
I'm unfamiliar with the crack spread but I agree it would be a good idea to watch it as well as monitoring inventories more closely during driving season.
What do you use to trade currencies? I've dabbled in them but am very much a novice. I find there are too many factors to look out for.

 

[glyder]

Hi, thanks, that explains the 7.30pm moves.

Currencies - I use MT4 mainly. Just basic support & resistance stuff.

 

[ikarus_wolf]

Hi, thanks, that explains the 7.30pm moves.

Currencies - I use MT4 mainly. Just basic support & resistance stuff.

I've never used MT4 but I'm surprised at how popular it is.
Any ideas where I can test it? How much does it cost?

 

[glyder]

You can get a demo at fxpro or fxcm.
Free of charge

 

[tradeoilnotfutures]

I've never used MT4 but I'm surprised at how popular it is.
Any ideas where I can test it? How much does it cost?

This broker is pretty awesome, lets u use MT4 and only $5 to open an account online.

Trading Point Online

 

[glyder]

OK, as an example, OPEC has just announced (or a rumour is out that it will) that it will pump more oil.
OIl price just fell very nicely.
In this case the PA said it all I was short already from just above 99.00.
Wish that was always the case.

 

[glyder]

Another factor to add to the list - twice yearly OPEC meetings.
Looks like this one might cause some volitility

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ice-battle-flares-ahead-of-Opec-showdown.html

 

[glyder]

OK, a good example - there has just been a huge spike in oil - anyone know what the cause was?
I didn't see any news.
Did OPEC decide not to pump more BPD?

Edit: Thats what happened...
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/43325009/ns/business-oil_and_energy/

"The price of oil soared almost $2 to near $101 a barrel Wednesday after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna came to no consensus on a decision about oil policy.
OPEC talks broke down without an agreement to raise output after Saudi Arabia failed to convince the cartel to lift production.

Secretary General Abdullah El-Badri said the effective decision was no change in policy and that OPEC hoped to meet again in three months time. No date has been set for another meeting. "

Interesting thing is there seems no fixed schedule to OPEC meetings.
Nor official announcements, just news reports.

 

[hunt4alpha]

As for your risk items I have some that are very obvious but commonly overlooked.

1. Crude Pit open 9:00 and Pit close 2:30. Pit open is volatile as is the pit close. The volume drops off significantly after the 2:30 close.

2. I don't often look at the Crack spread however lately the Brent/WTI spread is an important one to watch.

3. EU close rush at 11:30.

4. Roll over dates = crazy times. What it looks like: Wait? 700 offered above...no another 250 bid below...oh they yanked....but another 125 bid....oh 300 just crossed? Who is in charge? OPEX Week same deal.

[Note tIme are in (EST) see CME group site].