DashRiprock
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Dash Riprock Esq. - serious stuff
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
its pretty confusing to me why you would try trading STIRs? don't you have some accounting qualifications? why don't you use them? trading STIRs seems pretty hard going especially if you aren't a person who is naturally suited to them. personally, I would love to be able to trade STIRs and it seems like good fun but I know what I am good at and what I am not good at...i may do fine scalping around on betfair but I would get destroyed trying any of this...what you think? for me, there are a lot easier ways to make money and it sounds like that would be the same for you too.
its pretty confusing to me why you would try trading STIRs? don't you have some accounting qualifications? why don't you use them? trading STIRs seems pretty hard going especially if you aren't a person who is naturally suited to them. personally, I would love to be able to trade STIRs and it seems like good fun but I know what I am good at and what I am not good at...i may do fine scalping around on betfair but I would get destroyed trying any of this...what you think? for me, there are a lot easier ways to make money and it sounds like that would be the same for you too.
barjon
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
Dash
From what you say and have said on other threads it seems to me that most professionals trade in a way that has little regard to charts or fancy lines drawn on them insofar as intraday trading is concerned. For us lesser mortals at the retail end who don't or can't (p'raps that should be can't or don't
) trade in that particular professional way I'd be interested to know if you think the charts enable us to anticipate where you might be inclined to trade and to follow your footsteps if you do.
jon
Dash
From what you say and have said on other threads it seems to me that most professionals trade in a way that has little regard to charts or fancy lines drawn on them insofar as intraday trading is concerned. For us lesser mortals at the retail end who don't or can't (p'raps that should be can't or don't
) trade in that particular professional way I'd be interested to know if you think the charts enable us to anticipate where you might be inclined to trade and to follow your footsteps if you do. jon
Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
Yeah, don't listen to those guys telling you a spread matrix is only useful in markets with volume beyond the front month, here's one for the bund:
Useful, eh?
Yeah, don't listen to those guys telling you a spread matrix is only useful in markets with volume beyond the front month, here's one for the bund:
Useful, eh?
scose-no-doubt
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
I never said it was useful I said Dash could use one to watch the spread he was talking about. I know nothing about these matrices.
I never said it was useful I said Dash could use one to watch the spread he was talking about. I know nothing about these matrices.
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
well the way I trade is to trade the legs outright (infact very rarely will I trade the Notes Over Bond (NOB) spread at all), but I think it's important to look at - for other asset classes too i think, like stocks for example.
I mean basically IMO it only makes sense to have a directional bias on one contract if that bias is from a parallell shift across the whole range of contracts (I mean there all going the same way by roughly the same amount). I dont want to be in a situation where I've got a directional bias on one contract only because the curve has steepened/flattened, or say be going long on mid-caps when large-caps aren't going anywhere.
So, when I'm looking at whats going on and thinking about how to trade it, i want to see that the other contracts are doing similar things (like they all require the same trading strategy, what I was talking about today - I don't want to be scalping one when the other is off to the races or punting on one when the other is flat as a pancake). In the same light, when I am taking a directional bias, I dont want to be getting in when the spread has gone too far, because this means either the move is specific to my portion of the curve only (or say is specific only to mid-caps), or that there will be orders coming through to fade it through the spread, or both. In either case I'm not interested.
well the way I trade is to trade the legs outright (infact very rarely will I trade the Notes Over Bond (NOB) spread at all), but I think it's important to look at - for other asset classes too i think, like stocks for example.
I mean basically IMO it only makes sense to have a directional bias on one contract if that bias is from a parallell shift across the whole range of contracts (I mean there all going the same way by roughly the same amount). I dont want to be in a situation where I've got a directional bias on one contract only because the curve has steepened/flattened, or say be going long on mid-caps when large-caps aren't going anywhere.
So, when I'm looking at whats going on and thinking about how to trade it, i want to see that the other contracts are doing similar things (like they all require the same trading strategy, what I was talking about today - I don't want to be scalping one when the other is off to the races or punting on one when the other is flat as a pancake). In the same light, when I am taking a directional bias, I dont want to be getting in when the spread has gone too far, because this means either the move is specific to my portion of the curve only (or say is specific only to mid-caps), or that there will be orders coming through to fade it through the spread, or both. In either case I'm not interested.
TheBramble
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
Good thread DR. Excellent actually.
But…
Most of the punters here just want to know who’s going to win the 3:30 at Kempton.
What you’re outlining is a method to determine the difference between who’s flagging and who’s being held back.
Anything more than a coin toss and you’re going to lose them.
I’ll have a quid E/W on Dec Pork Bellies.
Good thread DR. Excellent actually.
But…
Most of the punters here just want to know who’s going to win the 3:30 at Kempton.
What you’re outlining is a method to determine the difference between who’s flagging and who’s being held back.
Anything more than a coin toss and you’re going to lose them.
I’ll have a quid E/W on Dec Pork Bellies.
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
just a few more posts to give more examples of earlier stuff;
the thing here is that both contracts are doing exactly the same thing; rotating around a high volume area just below the days highs. This is what I like to see if I'm thinking about trading either side of the market
What's noteworthy here as well is that though the 10yr looks like its in middle of nowhere, the 30yr is testing y'days low - a cap/level on one contract under pressure is holding the other down too (10yr had big gap down).
(just because one is at y'days low doesn't mean other should be too)
just a few more posts to give more examples of earlier stuff;
the thing here is that both contracts are doing exactly the same thing; rotating around a high volume area just below the days highs. This is what I like to see if I'm thinking about trading either side of the market
What's noteworthy here as well is that though the 10yr looks like its in middle of nowhere, the 30yr is testing y'days low - a cap/level on one contract under pressure is holding the other down too (10yr had big gap down).
(just because one is at y'days low doesn't mean other should be too)
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Martinghoul
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
One point, Dash.. Pls stop calling the long bond contract "30yr". It's confusing now that there's an actual 30y.
One point, Dash.. Pls stop calling the long bond contract "30yr". It's confusing now that there's an actual 30y.
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
this next one shows something to keep an eye out if you are trading/looking at a range.
Both contracts sold off by a few ticks very quickly - and importantly - pretty much simultaneously. When this happens be on your guard for a product wide sell off because something, somewhere, has changed (i think this was one of the fed speakers, but it isnt imperative to know what exactly). You don't want to caught on the bid here because there is someone out there who knows more than you, and they're selling. To you.
this next one shows something to keep an eye out if you are trading/looking at a range.
Both contracts sold off by a few ticks very quickly - and importantly - pretty much simultaneously. When this happens be on your guard for a product wide sell off because something, somewhere, has changed (i think this was one of the fed speakers, but it isnt imperative to know what exactly). You don't want to caught on the bid here because there is someone out there who knows more than you, and they're selling. To you.
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DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
ok sorry. I'll call them bond (30) and note (10) and anything longer than that ismy schlong ultra or über whatever its called.
(I am exclusively talking about ZN and ZB futures on globex)
ok sorry. I'll call them bond (30) and note (10) and anything longer than that is
(I am exclusively talking about ZN and ZB futures on globex)
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
So yesterday was a good example of going from a ranging market immediately to a trending market - the risk being that you get steamrollered before you know it.
Well here is an example of how a "trending" market can chop you up. The risk of trading the breakout (and going to the 1st strategy, long only) is that it was either a brief run on stops or some fast money doing something without any sizeable backing (I think this was a fed speaker again). This is why it's important to look at the tape - a simple buy order above the range here is going to get filled on a false breakout, but by looking at the tape you can get a better handle of what's going on. 1 lot wonders don't move markets.
There is of course nothing to stop you buying all the way down on the pullback - nobody said it would be easy.
So yesterday was a good example of going from a ranging market immediately to a trending market - the risk being that you get steamrollered before you know it.
Well here is an example of how a "trending" market can chop you up. The risk of trading the breakout (and going to the 1st strategy, long only) is that it was either a brief run on stops or some fast money doing something without any sizeable backing (I think this was a fed speaker again). This is why it's important to look at the tape - a simple buy order above the range here is going to get filled on a false breakout, but by looking at the tape you can get a better handle of what's going on. 1 lot wonders don't move markets.
There is of course nothing to stop you buying all the way down on the pullback - nobody said it would be easy.
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scose-no-doubt
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
whats that volume study called, muggins? Is it volume at price? I've used it somewhere else but cant find it on this one I'm on now.
whats that volume study called, muggins? Is it volume at price? I've used it somewhere else but cant find it on this one I'm on now.
Martinghoul
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
Yeah, ultra is the new 30y... It's fine, I can see which contract you're referring to by the handle. It's just that 30y is a bit confusing.
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
the flipside is that you don't want to be sitting on your hands while there is a directional bias across the range of products just because the initial move was weak. If stocks are going up, be buying stocks FFS!
So what I do to help avoid getting in on pullbacks or missing out on moves is I use heikin-ashi candlesticks. If I think it's a trending market across the board I'll only trade when the heikin ashi are going the right way. It's not very fancy but it works for me. In the graphs here (after the breakout from the high volume area) I would only be going long while the candles are white, and doing nothing when they're blue.
now tbh I've just about said everything I think I can about this here. Obviously some people will agree / disagree with it or whatever, but my basic view is that
a) markets are either trending or ranging
b) they move to money, and money moves them
so whatever you can do to give you an idea if its trending (which way?) or ranging (around where?) gives you a massive advantage over flipping a coin or darts or dartboards or whatever. If you can combine that with reading the tape (how much and where?) you have a good foundation for trading.
the flipside is that you don't want to be sitting on your hands while there is a directional bias across the range of products just because the initial move was weak. If stocks are going up, be buying stocks FFS!
So what I do to help avoid getting in on pullbacks or missing out on moves is I use heikin-ashi candlesticks. If I think it's a trending market across the board I'll only trade when the heikin ashi are going the right way. It's not very fancy but it works for me. In the graphs here (after the breakout from the high volume area) I would only be going long while the candles are white, and doing nothing when they're blue.
now tbh I've just about said everything I think I can about this here. Obviously some people will agree / disagree with it or whatever, but my basic view is that
a) markets are either trending or ranging
b) they move to money, and money moves them
so whatever you can do to give you an idea if its trending (which way?) or ranging (around where?) gives you a massive advantage over flipping a coin or darts or dartboards or whatever. If you can combine that with reading the tape (how much and where?) you have a good foundation for trading.
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DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
It's just a volume histogram (so yeah volume at price) with a 10 period ema. Also I don't use time charts intraday (these are both tick charts), and ignore the highs/lows of candles/bars because nobody gives a sh!t about a 5m dojo/hammer/flying dragon/bachman-turner-overdrive
It's just a volume histogram (so yeah volume at price) with a 10 period ema. Also I don't use time charts intraday (these are both tick charts), and ignore the highs/lows of candles/bars because nobody gives a sh!t about a 5m dojo/hammer/flying dragon/bachman-turner-overdrive
kimo'sabby
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
Why do you use an EMA with volume?
It's just a volume histogram (so yeah volume at price) with a 10 period ema. Also I don't use time charts intraday (these are both tick charts), and ignore the highs/lows of candles/bars because nobody gives a sh!t about a 5m dojo/hammer/flying dragon/bachman-turner-overdrive
Why do you use an EMA with volume?
DashRiprock
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Re: Get Long My Schlong, by Dash Riprock Esq. - serialisation
it's just a crutch for directional bias
EDIT: The EMA is of the mid price of the tick bar, not the EMA of the 10 period Volume at price
it's just a crutch for directional bias
EDIT: The EMA is of the mid price of the tick bar, not the EMA of the 10 period Volume at price
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