[DARWIN] ILR by IlIlIlIlI

[CavaliereVerde]

So let's suppose you reach a DD of -12%
Will you close the darwin?

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

So let's suppose you rerach a DD of -12%
Will you close the darwin?

No. But I will do a lot to avoid that.
I closed my earlier Darwins because I suspended or changed the strategy.
I did not close ILR when I decided to change my trading behaviour a month ago.

Years ago I thought that it is more fair to potential investors to run a new Darwin with a new or different strategy - meanwhile I think that it is a higher value for most investors if they see that a trader can improve his results and skills by going a new way with an open mind.
Also markets behaviour changed in the last 3 years more than once, some strategies ignoring that turned from winners to losers.

IMO communication is the key to stay fair and reliable - if I decide to change my trading behaviour I communicate it before it can be detected on the results and investable attributes, like the increased VaR of my Darwin. This decision is also rewarded by a higher profit on the Darwin.

Edit:
I also learned with ILR that some attributes can "read" my trading better with a longer history, and I feel I have more freedom to trade special situations with success than after a restart.

 

[TLN]

The existing DD of -8.21 % should never be exceeded

Sometime (and surely it will come), we can not secure this DD target. The best way to keep DD at -8.21% is stop trading when it is reached. ^^
Anw, good luck to you.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Sometime (and surely it will come), we can not secure this DD target. The best way to keep DD at -8.21% is stop trading when it is reached. ^^
Anw, good luck to you.

The existing DD of -8.21 % should never be exceeded. It was made with a VaR close to 6.5 %.

With the current VaR of more than 20% it would be an unacceptable DD on the trading account. There will be actions before that can happen.
If VaR goes down to 6.5 % again, it would be another situation.
The max. DD on the trading account is higher than on the Darwin and not good enough for the FTMO challenge

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

(Since) Tonight my young Darwin ILR appears in the Trending filter as #1 in the Return for the periods LAST MONTH ...

... and LAST 3 MONTHS:

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Currently ILR is closer to the historic max. DD than I ever wanted to see it, so the old strategy will be partially discontinued. That means for the strategy on ILR: restart from scratch.

 

[Gargamel]

Risk Manager needs minimum 3-6 months data to work well.Your darwin profited from that in the beginning(too much leverage),but it ended now.With VaR at 34% things will be much less volatile now,if you maintain the same risk as before.Anyway 15% per year for a darwin is excellent.Long term.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

IMO there is not much to write about ILR in March.
March was the worst month for ILR, but the yearly performance continues to show profit.

The result for 4 months is acceptable with more than 12 % return.

In the second half of March I started to implement fix stop losses after the first bad day, which unfortunaltely were triggered on the following bad days. I also implemented a new self written EA for trade management, not for trading. The EA will manage the stop loss and a trailing stop when a position is in profit. With the market moves in March it was seldom used.

I'm checking further options including running a trading EA on ILR, but there is nothing decided on this point. I'm still working on it, but testing takes a lot of time as the signal calculations are very time intensive.

I hope the Rs attribute will return to a value above 3 in April, this is the only attribute I'm currently observing. I also expect a positive return in April as it looks like the current DD has found its bottom. We'll see what will happen.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

In April ILR failed again to show a profitable month. Better than in March the result is about even, but showed stagnation at the end of the month.

I finished the programming of my new indicator which is in use since Monday last week. There are still some smaller bugs to remove and I intend to use it mainly for my trading in May.

XAUUSD was added for trading, I think about adding currency pairs also if they are profitable to trade with this indicator.

D-Score is now above 30, the Rs attribute continues to recover slowly and should be above 3.0 latest end of May.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Inspired also by @Captain Currency , this Darwin will be closed.
End of story for now.

edit:
I wrote this to Darwinex as they asked for comfirmation for closing the Darwin:
---------------------------------------------
is there a chance that the risk manger will be improved in the next months?

Currently it blames the trader and the investors as the replication factor has only one direction: reduce.

IMO that’s completely wrong and blames the trader and his investors for about 12 months!
Look at the Darwin HFD which made new all-time highs with about 20% (!) above its prior all time high on the trading account and the Darwin was still 10% below(!) its former all-time high.

If there is an improvement planned for the risk manager it might make sense to keep this Darwin, otherwise it can be closed. With the current system, IMO a D-Score of more than 40 (to have a chance on DarwinIA prizes) or 55 (for the rebate you mentioned) will be reached easier with a new trading account than with this one.

I’d appreciate if you discuss this point with your collegues.
---------------------------------------------

 

[Captain Currency]

a D-Score of more than 40 (to have a chance on DarwinIA prizes)

Yep and the rest ... I'd reckon a Darwin with a D-score of 40 would need a monthly return of 10% to get anywhere near a DarwinIA prize. More realistically, a D-score of 50 and a monthly return of +4% might just get you some allocation

I'd personally wait and not create a Darwin until I had a D-score of 60, I might be left waiting ...

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

I'd personally wait and not create a Darwin until I had a D-score of 60, I might be left waiting ...

That makes really sense as all the parameters are not stable if a Darwin is created after 30 days. The worst is the procedure around the Rs attribute if it reads a strategy change as I had it with ILR.
You're not eligible for DarwinIA with Rs < 3.0, the Pf attribute suffers because of the reduced replication factor, profit is reduced by an only decreasing replication factor and it's harder to get the 50% to attract investors etc. -> no real reason to go public with the trading account as a Darwin.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Are you saying ILR is penalyzed by the risk manager?
Darwin : 6% return , -12% DD
Strategy: -30% return , -62% DD

Rs is 3.4 so it is enough for Darwinia.
for a decent DScore you need one year of trackrecord, 6 months are not enough.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Are you saying ILR is penalyzed by the risk manager?

Yes, for the last and next months.
Rs is (only) 3.4 besides the range is held since March.

And of course a nice guy from Darwinex answered to my mail and this was my answer to his.
---------------------------------
the replication factor of ILR was only reduced in the last months since the trading volume was increased.

The reason is described here: https://blog.darwinex.com/change-fixed-var-variable-var-darwin-assets/ under 2. The operation of the new manager

In the past the successful Darwins needed more than 6 months to get a new all-time high. In fact it needs up to 3 to 6 months until the VaR gets stable after a strategy change or losses into a range of less than 2:1 between maximum and minimum of the VaR and after that the 6 months period of the new risk manager are to add. That is much too much too long.

So it makes it impossible that investors can share any real recovery of a Darwin. IMO 1 or 2 months for the check for the maximum and minimum VaR relation of 2:1 would be enough to cut the first – mostly temporary - recovery of grid and martingale traders. The VaR calculation itself takes 45 days into account which are to add.

As I said, you can leave ILR open and it will stay dormant if there can be a change planned in the risk manager periods.

If these periods are also counted if the Darwin is inactive it should stay open.
-------------------------------

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Since I stopped trading ILR and removed my funds, the D-Score raised every day from 33.1 to 36.8 today.

Any ideas why the Darwin is rewarded for not trading?
Where is the upper bound for this move during inactivity?

 

[CavaliereVerde]

A darwin is defined inactive after 2 months without trading so I think DScore will stop growing at that point.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

No more words to say to D-Score of 38.6 for an orphan Darwin, faster than the D-Score grows on my new trading account (not a Darwin)

 

[LokshinTrader]

...faster than the D-Score grows on my new trading account (not a Darwin)

This is actually puzzling

I'm just thinking aloud: what if you don't let it complete the 2 months without trading? Perhaps just put in 1 trade...let's say 6 weeks. It would be interesting to see how far it would go before it stops

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The only update I see is the VaR range under the Rs attribute, the attribute value stays unchanged.
I'm waiting whether D-Score continues growing if the max. and min. value of the VaR on that chart are identical.
It was and is not planned to reactivate this Darwin.
The reason is that the replication factor can only go down for months or a year because of the target VaR.

 

[ridgeback]

Since I stopped trading ILR and removed my funds, the D-Score raised every day from 33.1 to 36.8 today.

Any ideas why the Darwin is rewarded for not trading?
Where is the upper bound for this move during inactivity?

Maybe it's clever enough to calculate you are better trader when you don't actually place any more trades?