Daily Trading Advisory

arturo1 · Jun 2, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 02-June-2009

GM files for bankruptcy and gets $50 billion in government aid, Personal Spending down .1%, Personal Income up .5%. Construction Spending climbs .8%; ISM Index contracts at its slowest pace in eight months and comes out at 42.8. Markets reached new highs.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
2:00 PM Auto Sales
2:00 PM Truck Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the world markets trading in positive territory and the GM news behind us, markets rallied during the Globex session to new highs, the E-mini SP started the regular trading hour’s session at 932.00 and after pulling back to 930.25. After a few attempts to break lower, the index pushed up to 935.50. With the Nasdaq leading the move, the SP made a new high at 937.75. After testing the 935.50 area the market made a new high at 940.50 and then at 942.00. After holding above the 939.00 area, near the highs the SP pushed up to 943.00. With no signs of pulling back the SP continued to push up as shorts continued to get squeezed, the index reached 944.50. Finally the markets retraced a bit, the SP tested 941.50 and rallied to new highs at 947.25. With the Russell lagging at the highs, the SP pulled back to 938.50, ran to the highs and pulled back into the end of the session. For the day, the SP added 21.00 points and settled at 939.00, the Nasdaq gained 34.50 points closing at 1470.00 and the Russell gained 16.30 points closing the day at 517.60. The Dow added 221 points closing at 8721.
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MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Last Friday late spike and the settlement around the “strong resistance levels, SP at 911.00 and 918.00, the NQ at 1430.00-1435.00, the Russell just above 502.00 and 510.00 and the Dow 8500 and 8600”, indicates that the markets may be able to push higher to new highs before they get reversed and correct or even continue to show another upside leg. Markets had many opportunities to break lower, the SP below 875.00, the NQ below 1350.00 and the Dow below the 8500 and showed strong support at those areas, and in the same way that the downtrend, the bear market that started last year was an abnormal move, in the same way this rally could surprise everybody, its clear that the yearly lows and probably the lows for the next couple of years have been posted. Despite that the volumes were not great during the last months, buying interest is present on any new high creating a phenomenon where traders fear to miss the move, and so no matter if markets will correct 10% from whatever the high is, the trend may be up. This week is full of corporate and economic reports, GM bankruptcy and the monthly job market reports will rule the markets, there is not too much weight of the GM shares on the Dow, practically if the go to zero nothing happens, but once the issue is out of investors mind, its psychological impact will be over; the monthly job report may surprise and come out not as worst as expected and give way to new highs or to the high of this rally during next Friday trading session.”

Markets made it, the break or make point at the 875.00 area held many selling attempts, and finally, the indexes posted new highs. The SP reached the 940.00-960.00 areas that I mentioned many times during the last month.
Yesterday’s opening gap, above the 8.00 points ( many times when a gap exceeds 8.00 full points on the SP) gave way to a continuing pattern pushing the index higher, the daily lows were posted early in the session and were above last Friday 937.75 high, this is a bullish sign.
However markets do not move only in one direction and some pullback may be seen before this rally continues, but with many trapped shorts at the 904.00, 918.00 and 930.00 areas, it won’t be easy to see a strong sell off happening during today’s session, the most probable scenario may be back and forth action giving way to a sideways pattern before the next leg, if it happens is seen. With the markets holding a strong position is probably that my 960.00 area will get tested during the week, but one or two session showing some congestion is also a probability. Either way, position traders holding a long trade may feel OK but may be ready to take profits after another wide range upside session.
So, for today’s trading session expects two side actions, the SP may found strong support around yesterday’s opening prices, the 930.00 area, so be ready to get long down there if the market holds.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance above yesterday’s settlements at 941.50-943.00 on the SP, 1476.00-1478.00 on the Nasdaq and 519.70-521.80 on the Russell, if those do not hold, look for the markets to test yesterday’s highs at 946.00-947.00 on the SP, 1484.00-1485.00 on the Nasdaq and 524.90-526.10 on the Russell. A double top there could give a great shorting opportunity, but if those get exceeded look for the indexes to reach 952.00-953.00 on the SP, 1491.50-1493.00 on the Nasdaq and 530.20-532.00 on the Russell.

There is support at 936.00-933.50 on the SP, 1463.00-1461.50 on the Nasdaq and 515.50-513.40 on the Russell. Trading below them may push the markets down to their next levels at 930.00-928.00 on the SP, 1455.00-1453.00 on the Nasdaq and 511.30-510.50 on the Russell. If the markets will consolidate yesterday’s rally, get long there with tight stops, but if the profit taking move continues, then the pullback may reach 922.00-921.00 on the SP, 1448.00-1446.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.60-507.60 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 956.00-957.00 1499.00-1501.00 536.10-537.30
Resistance 3 952.00-953.00 1491.50-1493.00 530.20-532.00
Resistance 2 946.00-947.00 1484.00-1485.00 524.90-526.10
Resistance 1 941.50-943.00 1476.00-1478.00 519.70-521.80
PIVOT 934.25 1460.75 513.20
Support 1 936.00-933.50 1463.00-1461.50 515.50-513.40
Support 2 930.00-928.00 1455.00-1453.00 511.30-510.50
Support 3 922.00-921.00 1448.00-1446.00 508.60-507.60
Support 4 913.00-912.00 1441.50-1439.00 505.10-504.20

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1077.94 1704.31 619.8
1027.75 1619.04 582.5
997.00 1566.79 559.6
978.00 1534.50 545.4
966.25 1514.54 536.7
947.25 1482.25 522.5
935.50 1462.29 513.8
931.88 1456.13 511.1
928.25 1449.96 508.3
916.50 1430.00 499.6
897.50 1397.71 485.4
885.75 1377.75 476.7
866.75 1345.46 462.5
836.00 1293.21 439.6
785.81 1207.94 402.3

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 958.50 1502.00 531.50
AS DAILY LOW 927.75 1450.00 508.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 4, 2009

Daily Trasding Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 04-June-2009

ADP Employment data indicates a loss of another 532K jobs in the private sector. MBA mortgage application Index drops 16% on higher rates. ISM Services Index shrinks at slowest pace, Factory orders up .7% after the march data get revised down to 1.9%. Bernanke: recovery will be slow. Markets sold off but managed to close with moderate losses.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Productivity- Rev.
8:30 AM Unit Labor Cost

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the global markets taking a breath after the recent rally, the E-mini SP started the session at 935.75. After making its early high at 936.50, the index pushed lower to 932.00 from where it bounced back to 935.50 just to get sold to the 928.00 support are. On the market held it bounced back to 932.25, backed off to 929.00 and bounced to 933.50. Unable to break above my 934.00 area, the SP pushed down to new lows to 927.70. After trying to bounce and unable to trade back above the 930.00 area, the SP pushed down to new lows at 924.25, it bounced a couple of points and made a new low at 923.00.after trading in a sideways pattern the index posted a higher low and rallied to 927.50 where a double top gave way to a sell off that reached 922.50. Unable to trade lower the index rallied strong into the close. For the day, the SP lost VVVV points and settled at 931.75, the Nasdaq lost 1.00 point finishing the session at 1477.50 and the Russell ended at 524.30, minus 1.90 points. The Dow gave back 65 points closing the session at 8675.00
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MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “I don’t see any reason for the markets to sell off before they complete the 90 days cycle from the March lows, but if that happen, then tomorrow may be a wide range down session. When the markets rallied during the early May, I wrote that it would be unusual, after such a strong rally, not to test the January highs, and right now the SP has traded above it, obviously this is a point in price and time when the rally is at risk, but there is no evidence that the markets will turn down. A “V” bottom after the march lows? I am not so sure but for now it looks like the indexes may be able to push higher, above the 960.00 area that I mentioned since last month on the SP and 9000 on the Dow. For today’s trading session, I may continue to try to stay with the trend and be a buyer expecting another wide range positive session, that if it happens, certainly will place the SP on its way to the 1000.00 level, that will be a 50% Fibonacci extension from the March lows and a good objective for this 90 days old rally.”

No matter what I see or what I don’t see, the markets sold off as traders took some profits during this Bull Run. I was wrong on yesterday pretending that after a day where the markets consolidated and balanced another wide range upside session was in the cards, it happens.
Yesterday’s sell off and close below the 937.75 Friday’s highs, in a time period, almost 90 days from the lows, after a marginal high at 949.00, when the rally has all the conditions to be at risk, has placed its possible extension and continuation in jeopardy. However, there is not evidence that the trend has changed yet and the bulls are not out of the game.
The late bounce shows that there is lot of buying power on the setbacks, and that maybe, another run to the highs, a lower high or anew high is still possible. Yesterday’s sell off in which the major indexes closed with moderate losses may be normal in front of next Friday unemployment figures, but the indexes will have to fight against the risk conditions that I mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Yesterday’s bounce came from important support areas, on the SP, NQ and Russell, so despite that we could see some more back and forth action between the 925.00 and 949.00 levels on the SP, I can not take a short position, at least until yesterday’s low hold. If yesterday’s low get broken, it could signal more downside pressure, not necessarily a strong downtrend near the march lows, but maybe more sideways trading between the 875.00 and 950.00 levels on the SP.
For today’s trading session, markets may continue to fluctuate, but a double bottom near yesterday’s lows could offer a good long entry, on the other side of the coin, the SP will have to trade above 937.75 in order to resume the uptrend.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance above yesterday’s close at 934.00-936.00 on the SP, 1480.00-1482.00 on the Nasdaq and 525.40-526.60. The SP failed to break above them during yesterday’s session, so for some short covering to be seen, markets will have to break above them and then reach 938.00-940.50 on the SP, 1488.50-1491.00 on the Nasdaq and 528.90-530.10. Those may offer good resistance at least the first time they get tested, so if the bounce stalls there, look for a short position, but if those can not hold, then the indexes may be able to reach 944.00-945.50 on the SP, 1498.00-1499.00 on the Nasdaq and 532.00-533.60 on the Russell.

There is support at 927.00-926.00 on the SP, 1472.50-1470.00 on the NQ and 523.20-522.00 on the Russell. If those fail to hold the selling pressure look for some buying to appear at 924.00-923.00 on the SP, 1463.00-1462.50 on the Nasdaq and 519.80-517.50 on the Russell, failing there could add momentum to the profit taking move pushing the markets down to their next support areas at yesterday’s lows 921.25-919.50 on the SP, 1455.00-1453.00 on the Nasdaq and 515.30-514.20 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 950.00-951.00 1505.00-1507.00 535.70-538.80
Resistance 3 944.00-945.50 1498.00-1499.00 532.00-533.60
Resistance 2 938.00-940.50 1488.50-1491.00 528.90-530.10
Resistance 1 934.00-936.00 1480.00-1482.00 525.40-526.60
PIVOT 933.50 1473.50 523.00
Support 1 927.00-926.00 1472.50-1470.00 523.20-522.00
Support 2 924.00-923.00 1463.00-1462.50 519.80-517.50
Support 3 921.25-919.50 1455.00-1453.00 515.30-514.20
Support 4 916.00-915.50 1448.00-1447.00 510.60-509.50

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1044.56 1593.94 581.2
1006.62 1551.91 561.0
983.37 1526.16 548.6
969.00 1510.25 540.9
960.12 1500.41 536.2
945.75 1484.50 528.5
936.87 1474.66 523.8
934.13 1471.63 522.3
931.38 1468.59 520.8
922.50 1458.75 516.1
908.13 1442.84 508.4
899.25 1433.00 503.7
884.88 1417.09 496.0
861.63 1391.34 483.6
823.69 1349.31 463.4

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 938.75 1481.00 526.40
AS DAILY LOW 915.50 1455.25 514.00

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 8, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-June-2009

Jobless rate at 9.4%, the highest since 1983 and Nonfarm payrolls down only by 345K gave way to a strong rally and new highs for the U.S. equity indexes. Oil hits $70 per barrel.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 12-June-2009
R3 979.25
R2 959.50
R1 948.00
PP 938.00
S1 929.00
S2 918.50
S3 897.00

ECONOMIC DATA
None

WEEKLY RECAP
Thus was an exciting week for the world and U.S. markets. With everybody following the GM story and once its bankruptcy was declared and the issue was already behind investors concerns, markets rallied strong during Sunday’s night. GM’s bankruptcy was done with a $50 billion aid package coming from the U.S and Canadian governments. Later in the session, Personal Spending came out down by .1%, Personal Income up .5%. Construction Spending climbed .8% and the ISM Index contracted at its slowest pace in eight months coming out at 42.8. Markets reached new highs, the SP added 21.00 points and settled at 939.00, the Nasdaq gained 34.50 points closing at 1470.00 and the Russell gained 16.30 points closing the day at 517.60. The Dow added 221 points closing at 8721. After such a strong surge during Monday’s session, Tuesday was a balancing session, markets consolidated and managed to keep a solid and strong position, the news of the day was Pending Home Sales that jumped 6.7%. On the corporate arena, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and American Express announced that they will sell stocks in order to pay back TARP funds, also GM sold the HUMMER brand, volumes were low but for the day, the SP added 3.50 points and settled at 942.50, the Nasdaq gained 8.50 points closing at 1478.50 and the Russell closed higher by 8.60 points at 526.20. The Dow gained 19 points and closed the day at 8740. The rally took a breath during Wednesday’s session; markets opened lower and sold off but managed to close with moderate losses. The ADP employment data which measures the job market in the private sector showed a decrease of another 532K jobs, MBA mortgage application Index dropped 16% on higher rates and the ISM Services Index shrank at a slower pace, Factory orders was up.7% after the March data get revised down to 1.9%. In a speech, Bernanke said that the recovery will be slow, for the close the SP lost VVVV points and settled at 931.75, the Nasdaq lost 1.00 point finishing the session at 1477.50 and the Russell ended at 524.30, minus 1.90 points. The Dow gave back 65 points closing the session at 8675.00. Thursday’s trading session showed some short covering in front of the Friday’s unemployment numbers, the Initial and Continuing Claims were modestly lower. GM said that it is studying more temporary shutdowns and Bonds continue to trade lower pushing long term rates higher. Bernanke told to the House Budget Committee that the pace of economic contraction is slowing and markets closed in the green near the daily highs, the SP added 8.75 points closing the session at 940.50, the Nasdaq ended at 1493.00 with a 15.50points gain and the Russell settled at 531.20, up 6.90 points. The Dow added 74 points closing the day at 8750. Friday was a highly volatile session, with the markets trading with gains during the night, a huge spike that pushed the indexes up to new highs was seen after the job markets numbers get released. The unemployment rate jumped to 9.45, its highest since 1983, but the nonfarm payrolls figures surprised everybody reporting a loss of only 345K jobs, however the new highs were sold and the markets pushed strongly down and even traded lower after the opening, markets recovered and fluctuated during the trading session closing almost unchanged but with solid gains for the week.

FRIDAY’S MARKET
While trading in positive territory during the Globex session, markets exploded to the upside once the monthly job figures get released, the action during the nightly session pushed the SP up to 957.50 from where the market sat back to 951.00, bounced to a lower high at 955.50 and backed off once more a few minutes before the opening. The E-mini SP started the session at 950.25 and after bouncing a couple of points traded lower testing the 948.00 area. After another attempt to break above the 952.00 area the SP sold off all the way down to 941.00. Unable to hold the lows, the SP continued to press lower reaching 933.25. Once the index posted the low it bounced back up to 940.25 and then to 946.50. After the rebound from the early sell off, the SP traded in a sideways pattern holding the late highs and the previous settlement price. Later, the SP broke lower testing the daily lows from where the SP bounced back to 937.75, pulled back and rallied to 940.00 pulled back to 937.00 and bounced to 940.50. The trading action was choppy during the last hour of the session with the index between 943.00 and 938.00 closing in the middle of the range almost unchanged for the session. For the day the SP closed unchanged at 940.50, the Nasdaq gained two points closing at 1495.00 and the Russell lost .10 finishing the week at 530.50. The Dow gained 12 points ending at 8763.
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MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “There is not too much to add to the recent analysis, the uptrend is intact but the time window and recent posted highs have the markets near its time period and price level where the uptrend is at risk. What happens for the next few sessions if the rally fails? Probably the SP will retreat to the 905.00-903.00 area. Does that indicate a turn down for the next 60 days? Not sure, but with the summer in front of us and the low volumes, the indexes may fluctuate a few weeks on a 50 point range. Bears will have to push the SP below the 875.00 area, closing below it for two consecutive sessions for the downtrend to resume and open the possibilities for much lower prices. Until then and despite that the rally may have found resistance, markets are safe. The other side of the coin, new highs on the SP may push that index up to the 1000.00 area and the Dow just above the 9000; from those levels it will be more logical to see a 10% correction. Tomorrow is the 90 days cycle from the March lows, a good day for a high or for a strong reversal, so try to stay with the trend whatever the direction is. For today's session, great expectations in front of the unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls figures may guarantee a volatile opening, obviously the pressure is for the short traders, so if the markets react positive for the data you could expect a strong short covering rally that may push the indexes to new highs. On the low side, disappointing could press the markets down, but the SP may found good support around the 928.00 area.”

Markets rallied strong after the job markets data get released and printed their highs on the charts before the opening. Coinciding with the important time window, the 90 days cycle from the lows, and with the high at the limits of the 940.00-960.00 upside objective that I looked for in this rally, the strong reversal happened posting a possible false break and an end of the rally from the lows.
So we have a chance that the rally has completed its 90 days cycle and that the markets will correct or trade in a wide sideways pattern during the next few weeks before a “summer rally” that push the markets to new highs happens. On the other side of the coin, the daily charts indicate that the uptrend is strong and holding a solid position and that Friday’s sell off is just the normal volatility that sometimes is seen at new highs when traders take profits.
During the last three sessions of the past week, the SP has closed around the same area, the 940.00-943.00 seems to be the level from which the markets will start the next important move, another upside leg to this rally that may reach the 980.00-1000.00 level or a first degree correction that pushes the index down to the 910.00-900.00 band.
If the markets are due to continue to hold near their most recent highs and maintain the uptrend, a pullback may not exceed the three days time period and the move to the downside should be a struggling one, as traders bid the markets at not much lower levels, I am talking about the 918.00 area in order to keep alive the momentum.
On the weekly charts the index finally broke above the consolidation but the close was inside the range and can be qualified if not weak, then with a lost of some momentum as Friday’s new highs may have exhausted temporarily the recent rally.
The clue for what happens next will depend on what the index does during the next two sessions, Monday, normally shows lower volumes, but a lower close that does not get reversed next Tuesday will have bearish implications, on the other side, a close above the 950.00 area will probably give way to new highs during this week. For today’s trading session, the SP will have to break solidly above my first resistance area, and then if it reached 949.00 a pullback will have to get bought, otherwise expect another neutral close.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance above last Friday late highs at 943.00-945.00 on the SP, 1499.00-1501.00 on the Nasdaq and 532.00-533.20 on the Russell. If markets area weak those may get sold early on the session, and nothing good happens all the time that the indexes are trading below them, but trading above them will probably push the markets up to the previous highs at 947.25-949.00 on the SP, 1506.00-1508.00 on the Nasdaq and 535.30-536.40. Those were rejected already once, so if the rally stalls there, they may offer a good shorting opportunity, but if last Friday sell off from the highs was only a one day event, expect the indexes to continue higher and reach 953.75-954.25 on the SP, 1506.00-1508.00 on the Nasdaq and 539.70-540.40 on the Russell.

There is some support below Friday’s settlements at 938.00-936.00 on the SP, 1490.00-1488.00 on the Nasdaq and 528.60-527.20 on the Nasdaq. Those areas have acted as pivotal, so if the markets break below them they probably continue to push down reaching 933.75-932.50 on the SP, 1484.00-1482.00 on the Nasdaq and 524.60-523.80 on the Russell. If Friday’s highs and lows will act as support and resistance for a couple of sessions where markets will consolidate once more, those may hold, but if the pressure continues look for the indexes to trade lower for a test of 929.00-927.00 on the SP, 1478.00-1476.00 on the Nasdaq and 521.50-519.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 959.75-961.50 1521.00-1522.50 547.60-548.80
Resistance 3 953.75-954.25 1514.00-1516.00 539.70-540.40
Resistance 2 947.25-949.00 1506.00-1508.00 535.30-536.40
Resistance 1 943.00-945.00 1499.00-1501.00 532.00-533.20
PIVOT 943.75 1495.00 532.70
Support 1 938.00-936.00 1490.00-1488.00 528.60-527.20
Support 2 933.75-932.50 1484.00-1482.00 524.60-523.80
Support 3 929.00-927.00 1478.00-1476.00 521.50-519.80
Support 4 924.75-923.00 1470.00-1468.00 516.40-515.30

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1060.56 1659.63 611.2
1020.99 1603.32 584.6
996.74 1568.82 568.3
981.75 1547.50 558.2
972.49 1534.32 552.0
957.50 1513.00 541.9
948.24 1499.82 535.7
945.38 1495.75 533.8
942.51 1491.68 531.8
933.25 1478.50 525.6
918.26 1457.18 515.5
909.00 1444.00 509.3
894.01 1422.68 499.2
869.76 1388.18 482.9
830.19 1331.88 456.3

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 949.00 1521.25 536.20
AS DAILY LOW 924.75 1486.75 519.90

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 9, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-June-2009

Concern about valuations and global markets under pressure gave way to a lower opening. U.S. government announced that some of the nation's largest banks can repay billions in federal aid. Two year yields reach their highest levels since November on concerns that record issuance of U.S. debt may overwhelm demand as the economy shows signs of strengthening. Markets rallied during the last hour of the session closing with moderate losses. Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the futures markets trading lower by 1% during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 934.00 an after pulling back to 933.00 bounced to 935.25. With the bears leading the early trading, the SP sold off to 928.75, just above the Globex lows. A feeble bounce to the 930.75 gave way to a new low at 928.00, Holding near my weekly support area at the 929.00 level resulted in a rebound to 931.50, but unable to trade above my 933.00 area, the index sold off once more printing a new low in the chart at 927.00. Once the selling pressure dried, the SP bounced to 933.50. After a few attempts to break higher the index backed off to the daily lows. Another failed attempt to rebound resulted in a new low at 925.50. With low trading volumes and the activity running slow the SP bounced to 929.00. While struggling to hold the lows the SP tested higher low levels and reached the 930.00 area. The sideways pattern continued to be in play until the last hour when the indexes broke higher, the SP broke above the 933.00 and 935.00 areas giving way to a strong short covering move reaching 941.25. After pulling back to 939.25, the SP rallied to a new high at 945.00 and then 946.25.The markets pulled back, the SP failed to hold near the highs and tested 936.00 from where it bounced into the close. For the day, the SP lost 2.00 points and 938.50 at BBBB, the Nasdaq ended lower by 4.50 points at 1490.50 and the Russell gave back 4.80 points ending the day at 525.70. The Dow closed marginally higher at 8764.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “So we have a chance that the rally has completed its 90 days cycle and that the markets will correct or trade in a wide sideways pattern during the next few weeks before a “summer rally” that push the markets to new highs happens. On the other side of the coin, the daily charts indicate that the uptrend is strong and holding a solid position and that Friday’s sell off is just the normal volatility that sometimes is seen at new highs when traders take profits. If the markets are due to continue to hold near their most recent highs and maintain the uptrend, a pullback may not exceed the three days time period and the move to the downside should be a struggling one, as traders bid the markets at not much lower levels, I am talking about the 918.00 area in order to keep alive the momentum. On the weekly charts the index finally broke above the consolidation but the close was inside the range and can be qualified if not weak, then with a lost of some momentum as Friday’s new highs may have exhausted temporarily the recent rally. The clue for what happens next will depend on what the index does during the next two sessions, Monday, normally shows lower volumes, but a lower close that does not get reversed next Tuesday will have bearish implications, on the other side, a close above the 950.00 area will probably give way to new highs during this week.”

Markets gapped down on the opening and didn’t turn up for most of the session. The weak opening on all the indexes resulted in a quite and low volume session where markets maintained a downside bias until the last hour of the session. The selling was orderly and without panic, like a normal pullback on a market that keeps trading to the upside. Finally the markets rallied
Last Friday’s high and its reversal appeared to have all the symptoms of a false break, a higher opening, early highs during the first minutes of the session, and the consequent sell off; today, the continuing pattern and weakness, seemed to give the keys to the bears, however the late bounce keep showing strong support on the pullbacks and biding at lower prices.
On yesterday’s newsletter I mentioned the possibility of a three day pullback but also the chance for a neutral close around the 940.00 area which could give way for a test of the 958.50 area that was printed on the last Friday Globex’s session. That scenario is still possible but faces strong resistance around the 949.00 previous high areas; a lower high could give way to a more sizeable pullback.
So the story has not been written yet and the next move is still unsure, but even if the markets are overbought and showing some vulnerability at these levels, they certainly look strong.

For today’s trading session, the economic reports will continue to be very light and the markets may continue to fluctuate, so selling near resistance areas and buying above support may be a good idea, IF the 928.00 area holds.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 940.50-942.50 on the SP, 1498.00-1499.75 on the Nasdaq and 527.50-528.20. If the markets trade above them, look for a test of yesterday’s intraday highs at 944.00-946.00 on the SP, 1504.00-1506.00 on the Nasdaq and 529.90-531.00 on the Russell. If the session will give way to an other day of consolidation, the bounce may not exceed, but if the session is strong look for new highs around the 949.00-950.50 on the SP, 1510.50-1512.00 on the Nasdaq and 533.10-534.20 on the Russell. If the markets break above them, another wide range upside session may be seen.

There is good support at 934.00-932.00 on the SP, 1486.00-1484.00 on the Nasdaq and 523.10-521.60 on the Russell. If those fail to hold look for the markets to press lower testing yesterday’s pivotal levels at 929.50-927.00 on the SP, 1478.00-1476.00 on the Nasdaq and 518.80-516.20 on the Russell may be in the cards. If those can not hold, look for the selling to gain some momentum reaching 924.50-923.00 on the SP, 1472.00-1470.50 on the Nasdaq and 513.90-512.10 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 953.50-955.50 1518.00-1520.00 537.60-538.50
Resistance 3 949.00-950.00 1510.50-1512.00 533.10-534.20
Resistance 2 944.00-946.00 1504.00-1506.00 529.90-531.00
Resistance 1 940.50-942.50 1498.00-1499.75 527.50-528.20
PIVOT 936.75 1486.00 525.40
Support 1 934.00-932.00 1486.00-1484.00 523.10-521.60
Support 2 929.50-927.00 1478.00-1476.00 518.80-516.20
Support 3 924.50-923.00 1472.00-1470.50 513.90-512.10
Support 4 921.00-918.00 1463.00-1461.00 510.20-509.50

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1077.94 1704.31 619.8
1027.75 1619.04 582.5
997.00 1566.79 559.6
978.00 1534.50 545.4
966.25 1514.54 536.7
947.25 1482.25 522.5
935.50 1462.29 513.8
931.88 1456.13 511.1
928.25 1449.96 508.3
916.50 1430.00 499.6
897.50 1397.71 485.4
885.75 1377.75 476.7
866.75 1345.46 462.5
836.00 1293.21 439.6
785.81 1207.94 402.3

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 958.50 1502.00 531.50
AS DAILY LOW 927.75 1450.00 508.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 10, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-June-2009

Texas Instruments positive outlook and JP Morgan, one of the 10 banks that U.S. will let pay the TARP funds in show of confidence gave way to another consolidating session with mixed closes.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Trade Balance
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige Book

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets opened on the green, the E-mini SP started the session at 942.00 and after pulling back to 940.50 it bounced to 943.50. During the first minutes of the session the SP traded in the opening range and pushed higher to a new intraday high at 945.25. With traders concentrating on the spread between the June and September contracts markets backed off to new lows at 939.00. After bouncing back to 942.00, posting a low at 938.00 and printing a lower high, the SP backed off to 935.50 from where it traded in a narrow range above the lows. The SP broke above the trading range and reached 939.00 and after sitting there for a few minutes, it pushed higher to 942.00 where the bounce stalled. After a pullback to 939.50, the index bounced and tested the 943.00 area, pulled back to 939.00 and bounced once more forming a triangle pattern that finally get broke to the upside pushing the markets to new highs, the SP reached 944.50, pulled back a bit and pushed to a new high reaching 947.00. Later the index traded lower, tested 941.50, bounced to 945.00, and pulled back into the end of the session. For the day, the SP closed almost unchanged at 939.50; the Nasdaq added 10.25 points ending the session at 1500.75 and the Russell added .90 points ending at 526.10. The Dow lost 1.00 and finished at 8763.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Last Friday’s high and its reversal appeared to have all the symptoms of a false break, a higher opening, early highs during the first minutes of the session, and the consequent sell off; today, the continuing pattern and weakness, seemed to give the keys to the bears, however the late bounce keep showing strong support on the pullbacks and biding at lower prices. On yesterday’s newsletter I mentioned the possibility of a three day pullback but also the chance for a neutral close around the 940.00 area which could give way for a test of the 958.50 area that was printed on the last Friday Globex’s session. That scenario is still possible but faces strong resistance around the 949.00 previous high areas; a lower high could give way to a more sizeable pullback. So the story has not been written yet and the next move is still unsure, but even if the markets are overbought and showing some vulnerability at these levels, they certainly look strong. For today’s trading session, the economic reports will continue to be very light and the markets may continue to fluctuate, so selling near resistance areas and buying above support may be a good idea, IF the 928.00 area holds.”

Markets continued to consolidate keeping a strong position and upward bias. The recent action and the size of the attempted pullbacks makes me think that the markets may be able to push higher and post new highs in the next coming sessions. However, multiple closes around the same level also shows a lack of buying, there is not selling, but there is not new buying coming into the markets.
So, uncertainty and more of the same may be seen, but the pattern may get resolved today after the Fed’s Beige Book gets released. Also, the rollover from the June to the September contract which kept traders concentrated on it and probably will keep them busy during today’s session, may made difficult for the markets to post the next important move.
The SP has been able to hold the sell off attempts and it has managed to maintain the 918.00 level, but if that index won’t get its foot going, then a wide range negative session could be seen. But for now and until the pattern of trading gets resolved, trading both sides of the range sounds good, obviously, the upside bias could get strong momentum once the SP closes above the 950.00 level.
The Nasdaq looks more bullish but the most recent highs still continue to be an obstacle, if that index can maintain its leading position, it should help the other markets to move up.

For today’s trading session, a lower opening could give way to a more intensive selling activity,, so be careful on the long side if the markets area trading in the red, but if the SP breaks above 946.50 that may be all for the shorts.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 941.50-942.50 on the SP, 1502.50-1504.50 on the Nasdaq and 527.70-528.90. If the markets trade above them, look for levels near yesterday’s highs at 944.50-946.50 on the SP, 1510.00-1512.00 on the Nasdaq and 529.90-531.00 on the Russell. Nothing good happens all the time that the markets do not break above them, if the breakout finally happens look for the indexes to trade at their next resistance areas at 950.50-953.00 on the SP, 1520.00-1522.00 on the Nasdaq and 534.30-535.30 on the Russell.

There is good support at 936.00-934.00 on the SP, 1495.00-1494.00 on the Nasdaq and 524.00-523.10 on the Russell. Trading below them may give shorts the needed momentum to start and press down pushing the indexes to 930.00-928.50 on the SP, 1490.00- 1488.00 on the NQ and 521.10-519.60, if those can not hold, we may be in front of a strong sell off once the next support areas at 926.00-925.00 on the SP, 1482.00-1480.50 on the Nasdaq and 517.70-516.20 on the Russell fail to hold. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 958.50-959.75 1531.00-1534.50 540.20-541.80
Resistance 3 950.50-953.00 1520.00-1522.00 534.30-535.30
Resistance 2 944.50-946.50 1510.00-1512.00 529.90-531.00
Resistance 1 941.50-942.50 1502.50-1504.50 527.70-528.90
PIVOT 940.25 1499.00 526.70
Support 1 936.00-934.00 1495.00-1494.00 524.00-523.10
Support 2 930.00-928.50 1490.00-1488.00 521.10-519.60
Support 3 926.00-925.00 1482.00-1480.50 517.70-516.20
Support 4 921.00-919.50 1476.50-1474.00 513.60-511.90

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1077.94 1704.31 619.8
1027.75 1619.04 582.5
997.00 1566.79 559.6
978.00 1534.50 545.4
966.25 1514.54 536.7
947.25 1482.25 522.5
935.50 1462.29 513.8
931.88 1456.13 511.1
928.25 1449.96 508.3
916.50 1430.00 499.6
897.50 1397.71 485.4
885.75 1377.75 476.7
866.75 1345.46 462.5
836.00 1293.21 439.6
785.81 1207.94 402.3

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 958.50 1502.00 531.50
AS DAILY LOW 927.75 1450.00 508.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 11, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-June-2009

ROLLOVER DAY IS TODAY THURSDAY, MY NUMBERS ARE STILL BASED ON THE JUNE CONTRACT

Commodities and Global stock market advances resulted in a strong opening for the U.S. equity indexes that get sold and reached a neutral level into the close. U.S. trade deficit widens as exports slumps to lowest level in three years. Citigroup began exchanging $58 billion of preferred securities into common stock; Home Depot raises full year earnings expectations. Treasury declines as Russia said it may reduce reserves held in U.S. debt. Ten year treasury bonds hit eight month high. Fed’s Beige book says that recession may be moderating but weakness in the labor market persists.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex- auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading sharply higher during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 950.00 and pulled back from 950.50 testing lower levels at 946.50 and then at 944.25. After bouncing to 947.00, the index continued to trade under pressure and tested 939.50. The SP bounced back to 942.50 just to push down to a new low at 938.00. The SP tried to get back above the 940.00 area, which has been pivotal during the last sessions, but unable to do it, it continued to trade lower reaching 936.00. The SP bounced to 941.00 but failed to gain the upside momentum needed for a recovery. Once the SP traded back below the 940.00 area and broke the 933.00 level, the downside gained momentum pushing the index to 927.00 from where a rebound reached 932.50. After sitting above the 930.00 the index managed to reach 935.75. The SP pulled back to 931.00, traded sideways, bounced to test the last high and broke above it reaching 936.50., then, the index pulled back a few points and rallied to 941.00 into the close. For the day, the SP added .75 points closing the session at 940.25, the Nasdaq lost 5.00 points and settled at 1495.50 and the Russell lost 1.40points ending the session at 525.20. The Dow lost 24 points finishing the day at 8739.
.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Markets continued to consolidate keeping a strong position and upward bias. The recent action and the size of the attempted pullbacks makes me think that the markets may be able to push higher and post new highs in the next coming sessions. However, multiple closes around the same level also shows a lack of buying, there is not selling, but there is not new buying coming into the markets. So, uncertainty and more of the same may be seen, but the pattern may get resolved today after the Fed’s Beige Book gets released. Also, the rollover from the June to the September contract which kept traders concentrated on it and probably will keep them busy during today’s session, may made difficult for the markets to post the next important move. The SP has been able to hold the sell off attempts and it has managed to maintain the 918.00 level, but if that index won’t get its foot going, then a wide range negative session could be seen. But for now and until the pattern of trading gets resolved, trading both sides of the range sounds good, obviously, the upside bias could get strong momentum once the SP closes above the 950.00 level. The Nasdaq looks more bullish but the most recent highs still continue to be an obstacle, if that index can maintain its leading position, it should help the other markets to move up.”

Once more, the SP closed around the 940.00 area. Yesterday’s wide upside opening gap and Globex lower daily high may had the appearance that exhausted the rally. One of the ways that markets post a top is by a wide higher opening, an upside gap, that get reversed, we have discussed that many times in our newsletter and it is a valid pattern to exhaust a trend.
Yesterday I wrote that the lack of buying was a red light in the current rally, an once the SP repeated the same trading pattern that happened last week when the index reached during the nightly session the 956.50 area just to get sold off during the regular trading hours session, so for now, the market has printed a double top that certainly, looks like a short term high. The multiple closes around the 940.00 area and the failure of the SP to close above the November and January highs where obvious resistance exist, has become a real obstacle for the rally to continue.
On the other side of the coin, the uptrend remains intact all the time that the SP holds on the close the 918.00 area, this is valid also for the Dow above the 8600, and for now, all the sell offs has been met with buyers ready to jump in to the markets. So until this happen, chances for higher prices still exist, obviously, once the highs get broke.
I am not a trader who believes in triple tops, the markets have showed me that most of the times when an index reaches the same level for the third time, it probably will break above it, and the fact that today, the SP reached almost last week high, has invalidated the probability of a false break, so if we have a top, is a double one and not a break that left late longs trapped.
What happens today will be very important, if the markets show some follow through to the downside, then the uptrend may be in jeopardy, but only a sell off that last for most than three consecutive session will give certainty to this scenario, also, two closes below the 918.00 area that o mentioned.
With this uncertainty and with the pattern of trading unresolved, I still believe that the markets could move higher and reverse yesterday’s moderate losses, so for today’s trading session I will try to stay on the long side all the time that my screen is showing the green, but we may see more sideways action before the pattern gets resolved.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 943.00-944.00 on the SP, 1499.00-1501.50 on the Nasdaq and 527.10-528.00. Trading above them will push the markets up to 946.50-948.25 on the SP, 1506.50-1508.00 on the Nasdaq and 529.90-530.90 on the Russell. Those area key, if the trend pattern will get resolved to the upside, the markets will have to break above them and reach 952.00-954.50 on the SP, 1516.00-1518.00 on the Nasdaq and 533.70-535.20 on the Russell. Only if a triple top is posted around those areas the rally may have been completed.

There is support at 937.50-935.50 on the SP, 1491.00-1489.00 on the Nasdaq and 523.20-521.40 on the Russell. If the markets will rally strong, those MUST hold but if the trend is more of the same, then look for a test of 932.50-931.00 on the SP, 1483.00-1480.50 on the NQ and 520.10-519.50, if those can not hold, then yesterday’s sell off may get repeated pushing the markets down to 926.50-925.00 on the SP, 1475.00-1473.00 on the Nasdaq and 516.60-515.40 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 959.00-961.00 1529.00-1531.00 540.70-542.10
Resistance 3 952.00-954.50 1516.00-1518.00 533.70-535.20
Resistance 2 946.50-948.25 1506.50-1508.00 529.90-530.90
Resistance 1 943.00-944.00 1499.00-1501.50 527.10-528.00
PIVOT 940.75 1495.50 525.10
Support 1 937.50-935.50 1491.00-1489.00 523.20-521.40
Support 2 932.50-931.00 1483.00-1480.50 520.10-519.50
Support 3 926.50-925.00 1475.00-1473.00 516.60-515.40
Support 4 921.00-919.75 1468.00-1465.50 513.70-511.50

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1074.00 1706.88 623.9
1028.30 1634.25 590.0
1000.30 1589.75 569.2
983.00 1562.25 556.3
972.30 1545.25 548.4
955.00 1517.75 535.5
944.30 1500.75 527.6
941.00 1495.50 525.1
937.70 1490.25 522.6
927.00 1473.25 514.7
909.70 1445.75 501.8
899.00 1428.75 493.9
881.70 1401.25 481.0
853.70 1356.75 460.2
808.00 1284.13 426.3

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 961.75 1506.75 530.40
AS DAILY LOW 933.75 1462.25 509.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 12, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-June-2009

Initial claims down to 601K and Continuing Claims at a new record high 6.82 million, Retail sales up for the first time in three months, .5%. Markets rallied but once more fail to hold the gains

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex- auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
With the rollover from the June to the September contract on the futures markets, the indexes fluctuated during the night. The E-mini SP started the session at 937.25 from where it bounced to 940.25, pulled back to 938.00 and rallied fast reaching 945.00. The index pulled back to 941.75 and bounced to 946.75 where the uptrend lost its momentum; the SP backed off to 941.50, tested 944.25 and pushed lower to 940.75. Once more, the index bounced testing the highs of the session. The markets continued to trade in a sideways pattern with the SP holding above the pivotal 940.50 area, once the consolidation get broke, the SP reached new highs at 948.50 and then at 950.25, it pulled back to 946.75 and it rallied to a new high at 952.75. The markets corrected during the last hour of the session, the SP tested 942.50 and bounced to 942.25 and get sold strongly making the lows into the end of the session. For the session, the E-mini SP added 1.75 points closing the session at 938.25; the Nasdaq lost 3.50 points and settled at 1491.00 and the Russell lost 1.40 points closing at 921.30. The Dow added 31 points and closed at 8770.
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MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Once more, the SP closed around the 940.00 area. Yesterday’s wide upside opening gap and Globex lower daily high may had the appearance that exhausted the rally. Yesterday I wrote that the lack of buying was a red light in the current rally, an once the SP repeated the same trading pattern that happened last week when the index reached during the nightly session the 956.50 area just to get sold off during the regular trading hours session, so for now, the market has printed a double top that certainly, looks like a short term high. The multiple closes around the 940.00 area and the failure of the SP to close above the November and January highs where obvious resistance exist, has become a real obstacle for the rally to continue. On the other side of the coin, the uptrend remains intact all the time that the SP holds on the close the 918.00 area, this is valid also for the Dow above the 8600, and for now, all the sell offs has been met with buyers ready to jump in to the markets. So until this happen, chances for higher prices still exist, obviously, once the highs get broke. What happens today will be very important, if the markets show some follow through to the downside, then the uptrend may be in jeopardy, but only a sell off that last for most than three consecutive session will give certainty to this scenario, also, two closes below the 918.00 area that o mentioned. With this uncertainty and with the pattern of trading unresolved, I still believe that the markets could move higher and reverse yesterday’s moderate losses, so for today’s trading session I will try to stay on the long side all the time that my screen is showing the green, but we may see more sideways action before the pattern gets resolved.”

With the markets showing bidding on the recent sell off attempts, which appeared to be a test of the most recent lows and not a change of the trend, the markets still have the probabilities to move higher. This week rollover from the June to the September contracts saw some erratic action, the Wednesday’s pre market spike to the early June highs and strong intraday sell off that are not normal during the rollover period, yesterday’s rally that posted a triple top ( I wrote that I don’t believe in triple tops but they happen) and the late correction, have the index trading in a sideways daily pattern which once it get resolved it could lead to a sharp move.
The fact that the recent lows have not been able to break below the late May’s high indicates strong support. They also maintain the markets in a solid position, but the multiple rejections from the highs that keep acting like a ceiling on the rally attempts show also fear to get trapped near the highs.
So uncertainty about the next move and which direction will follow the break out from the June 30.00 point range its all we have in the charts.
This trading range won’t last for too many more sessions, and if the breakout won’t happen to the upside, then the ranges will have to get expanded to the lower side of the charts. I have been mentioning the 918.00 area, as a bottom on any pullback to maintain the uptrend intact, so I want to stick to the possibility that the markets will finally break higher all the time that this level holds.
For today’s trading session, keeping in mind that is a Friday, everything could happen, but on this market conditions, more sideways trading action may be seen, so sell the rallies once they stall and buy the deeps with tight stops once the selling lost momentum.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 942.00-943.75 on the SP, 1495.00-1497.00 on the Nasdaq and 523.40-524.40 on the Russell. Trading above them will push the markets up to 947.25-949.25 on the SP, 1504.00-1505.50 on the Nasdaq and 526.10-527.60 on the Russell. Those area key resistances before the highs, and they will have to get exceeded with strong momentum in order to try once more to break the highs, if that happens, look for the markets to test once more the recent highs at 955.00-955.50 on the SP, 1512.00-1514.00 on the Nasdaq and 530.10.531.70 on the Russell.

There is support at 934.50-932.75 on the SP, 1486.50-1484.00 on the Nasdaq and 519.20-518.30 on the Russell. If the markets won’t hold there, they probably will test the next levels at 929.75-928.50 on the SP, 1480.50-1478.00 on the Nasdaq and 516.90-515.00 on the Russell. Every new low below those levels carries the risk of pushing the SP to the 918.00 level, the last support areas before that area t 925.00-924.00 on the SP, 1472.00-1471.00 on the NQ and 512.50-511.20 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 959.00-961.25 1521.00-1524.00 535.30-537.00
Resistance 3 955.00-955.50 1512.00-1514.00 530.10.531.70
Resistance 2 947.25-949.25 1504.00-1505.50 526.10-527.60
Resistance 1 942.00-943.75 1495.00-1497.00 523.40-524.40
PIVOT 941.25 1496.50 523.90
Support 1 934.50-932.75 1486.50-1484.00 519.20-518.30
Support 2 929.75-928.50 1480.50-1478.00 516.90-515.00
Support 3 925.00-924.00 1472.00-1471.00 512.50-511.20
Support 4 921.25-919.75 1461.00-1458.50 506.40-505.10

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1037.75 1612.19 579.4
1005.11 1573.43 560.7
985.11 1549.68 549.3
972.75 1535.00 542.3
965.11 1525.93 537.9
952.75 1511.25 530.9
945.11 1502.18 526.5
942.75 1499.38 525.2
940.39 1496.57 523.9
932.75 1487.50 519.5
920.39 1472.82 512.5
912.75 1463.75 508.1
900.39 1449.07 501.1
880.39 1425.32 489.7
847.75 1386.56 471.1

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 955.50 1501.00 526.10
AS DAILY LOW 935.50 1477.00 514.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 15, 2009

Daily Trading Advisory 15-June-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-June-2009

Consumer Confidence at its highest level on the last nine months and Dow erases 2009 losses as investors sees the end of the recession, give way to another quite session where stocks fluctuated closing with marginal changes for the day and week.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 19-June-2009
R3 986.50
R2 969.75
R1 955.25
PP 938.25
S1 931.00
S2 923.50
S3 906.50

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM NY Empire Manufacturing Index
9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows

WEEKLY RECAP
Monday’s session markets stood under pressure, but a late rally managed to push the indexes up near unchanged levels keeping the uptrend intact. Concern about valuations and global markets under pressure gave way to a lower opening. Later in the session, the U.S. government announced that some of the nation's largest banks can repay billions in federal aid. The two year yields reach their highest levels since November on concerns that record issuance of U.S. debt may overwhelm demand as the economy shows signs of strengthening and Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September. For the day, the SP lost 2.00 points and closed at 938.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 4.50 points at 1490.50 and the Russell gave back 4.80 points ending the day at 525.70. The Dow closed marginally higher at 8764. Tuesday’s trading session saw traders concentrated on the spread between the June and September, an early pullback got bought and the markets closed once more with little changes. On the corporate news, Texas Instruments came with a positive outlook and the government confirmed that ten banks won U.S. Treasury approval to buy back $68 billion of government shares. On the economic news, Wholesale inventories were down 1.4% for the month of April, for the day, the SP closed almost unchanged at 939.50; the Nasdaq added 10.25 points ending the session at 1500.75 and the Russell added .90 points ending at 526.10. The Dow lost 1.00 and finished at 8763. Wednesday’s trading session saw a spike during the Globex session leaded by a rally on the commodities and Global markets, but despite that traders concentrated on the rollover from the June to the September contract markets sold off strongly but bounced into the end posting another neutral close. The U.S. trade deficit widened as exports slumped to its lowest level in three years. Citigroup began exchanging $58 billion of preferred securities into common stock and Home Depot raised its full year earnings expectations. Also, Treasury declined as Russia said it may reduce reserves held in U.S. debt. Ten year treasury bonds hit eight month high and the Fed's Beige book said that recession may be moderating but weakness in the labor market will persists. For the day, the SP added .75 points closing the session at 940.25, the Nasdaq lost 5.00 points and settled at 1495.50 and the Russell lost 1.40points ending the session at 525.20. The Dow lost 24 points finishing the day at 8739. Thursday session disappointed, after a slightly lower opening markets rally on the release of the economic data. Initial Claims were down to 601K and Continuing Claims posted a new record at 6.82 million. Retail Sales was up by .5%, the first advance in the last three months, later in the session when the bond auction result get released indicating that the collocation was successful, markets rallied and tested the most recent highs, however, the low volumes and concerns about inflation pushed the markets back down into the close for another neutral close, the E-mini SP added 1.75 points closing the session at 938.25; the Nasdaq lost 3.50 points and settled at 1491.00 and the Russell lost 1.40 points closing at 921.30. The Dow added 31 points and closed at 8770. Friday the markets started on the red, despite that the Nasdaq pushed strongly lower, the SP maintained the most recent lows. Consumer confidence reported a slightly increase showing its best level in the last nine months and that give way to a bounce that tested the 940.00 weekly pivot point. The next few hours markets traded in a sideways pattern with ultra light volumes keeping trades away from the action. For the day, the SP added 2.50 points and settled at 940.75, the Nasdaq lost 5.50 points and closed the session at 1485.50 and the Russell added one point ending at 522.30. For the week markets closed with small changes

FRIDAY’S MARKET
After fluctuating during the night, the E-mini SP started the session on the red. The index opened the day at 935.50 and after testing 934.00 it bounced to 936.75 and pulled back once more. The index traded in a narrow pattern waiting for the release of the economic numbers, once the were out and leaded by the weakness on the Nasdaq, the SP pulled back to 931.25. After holding the low, the SP bounced to 937.25, pulled back to 934.00 and rallied to 939.25 where the bounce lost its momentum. With the trading volumes running on the light side the markets entered in a sideways trading pattern between 934.00 on the low and 939.00 on the upper side. Finally once the Russell broke above its resistance area, the SP pushed higher posting a new high at 942.50. The index traded near the highs for half hour but in front of the weekend pushed down once more below the 940.50 area holding near the unchanged area and bounced a bit into the close. For the day, the SP added 2.50 points and settled at 940.75, the Nasdaq lost 5.50 points and closed the session at 1485.50 and the Russell added one point ending at 522.30.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “The fact that the recent lows have not been able to break below the late May’s high indicates strong support. They also maintain the markets in a solid position, but the multiple rejections from the highs that keep acting like a ceiling on the rally attempts show also fear to get trapped near the highs. So uncertainty about the next move and which direction will follow the break out from the June 30.00 point range its all we have in the charts. This trading range won’t last for too many more sessions, and if the breakout won’t happen to the upside, then the ranges will have to get expanded to the lower side of the charts. I have been mentioning the 918.00 area, as a bottom on any pullback to maintain the uptrend intact, so I want to stick to the possibility that the markets will finally break higher all the time that this level holds. For today’s trading session, keeping in mind that is a Friday, everything could happen, but on this market conditions, more sideways trading action may be seen, so sell the rallies once they stall and buy the deeps with tight stops once the selling lost momentum.”

Markets consolidated during the recent week as they traded in a sideways pattern on a 30.00 point range for the SP and got rejected twice from the highs posting a triple top while keeping strong support just below the 930.00 level.
During the past weeks I have maintained a bullish position looking for an upside break that had not happen yet. The longer the SP takes to break to new highs, higher the chances that it won’t happen in the near term. As we enter in the summer period, volumes run normally lower and despite the slightly improvement on the economic indicators, investors are showing a lack of interest at the current price levels.
This does not negate or invalid that the trend is still strong and positive, but a rally without higher volumes won’t add confidence to the move. On the other side of the coin, if the indexes won’t be able to trade higher, holding their gains, then we may see some correction, also with low volumes, but to prices where investors will feel motivated to jump in to a long position.
If that happens, I may consider that the third quarter of the year may see some profit taking or weakness in front of higher prices for the fourth quarter, but there is not evidence that the markets will correct by much and after posting later in the year a new high the indexes may consolidate in a sideways pattern for a long period, obviously breaking below 918.00 opens the possibilities of a test of the 870.00 area.
So, nothing is clear in the short term, current circumstances and the trading pattern could get resolved either side. However, this week triple witching, has the tendency to push higher, to be a bullish week, and the 950.00 area may get visited once more in order to press the shorts and those traders who sold that strike price call.
With less convincement than the previous week, but guided by the recent pattern, I will keep a slightly bullish bias, at least all the time that the SP can maintain the 918.00 area on the close.
Keep in mind that the markets can not continue to trade in this narrow range and as always, the move will come by surprise catching most of the players on the wrong side and giving way to a wide range trading session, so let’s try to stay with the trend keeping a close eye on the weekly 938.25 pivot point on the SP. Also, try to follow the Nasdaq as that index has been an indicator of the daily direction.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance around last Friday highs at 942.00-943.00 on the SP, 1488.00-1490.00 on the Nasdaq and 523.20-524.90 on the Russell. If markets are weak those may get sold early on the session, and nothing good happens all the time that the indexes are trading below them, but trading above them will add some upside momentum and push the markets up to 945.50-947.50 on the SP, 1496.00-1498.50 on the Nasdaq and 526.80-528.20. If those can not hold look for another test of the next resistance areas at 949.75.951.00 on the SP, 1509.00-1511.50 on the Nasdaq and 530.20-532.50 on the Russell. Failing there will probably give way to a 12.00-14.00 point sell off on the SP, but if they finally get broke and the NQ pushes above the 1518.00 level, new buying may be seen.

There is support below Friday’s settlements at 938.50-937.00 on the SP, 1482.00-1480.00 on the Nasdaq and 520.60-519.70 on the Nasdaq. On the rallies from the sell off attempts, those have been acted as pivotal, so if the indexes can hold around there, expect a bullish session, but if there is buying pressure, markets may push lower testing 934.00-933.00 on the SP, 1476.00-1475.00 on the Nasdaq and 517.10-516.70 on the Russell. If the profit taking continues look for a test of the most recent important lows at 929.00-927.00 on the SP, 1470.00-1469.00 on the Nasdaq and 512.30-511.20 on the Russell. Trading below them will place the markets in front of a strong sell off. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 955.25-956.75 1525.00-1526.00 535.70-536.40
Resistance 3 949.75.951.00 1509.00-1511.50 530.20-532.50
Resistance 2 945.50-947.50 1496.00-1498.50 526.80-528.20
Resistance 1 942.00-943.00 1488.00-1490.00 523.20-524.90
PIVOT 938.25 1483.50 520.70
Support 1 938.50-937.00 1482.00-1480.00 520.60-519.70
Support 2 934.00-933.00 1476.00-1475.00 517.10-516.70
Support 3 929.00-927.00 1470.00-1469.00 512.30-511.20
Support 4 923.50-922.50 1463.00-1461.00 507.20-505.50

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
991.63 1615.50 565.0
972.86 1569.80 549.5
961.36 1541.80 540.0
954.25 1524.50 534.1
949.86 1513.80 530.5
942.75 1496.50 524.6
938.36 1485.80 521.0
937.00 1482.50 519.9
935.64 1479.20 518.7
931.25 1468.50 515.1
924.14 1451.20 509.2
919.75 1440.50 505.6
912.64 1423.20 499.7
901.14 1395.20 490.2
882.38 1349.50 474.7

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 947.50 1491.00 528.20
AS DAILY LOW 936.00 1463.00 518.70

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 18, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-June-2009

CPI lower than expected culminating the biggest drop in a 12 month period during the last 60 years, FedEx bearish economic outlook and Goldman Sachs ready to repay $10 billion in government funds, banks get downgraded by S&P, all this gave way to a narrow range session with a mixed close.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets fluctuated during the Globex session giving way to an almost unchanged opening. The SP started the day at 906.75 and after testing 908.25, it pulled back to 907.00, rallied to 909.25 and pushed down to test the 904.00 area. After a feeble bounce, the SP made a new low at 902.50. The markets held and the index bounced back to 907.50 but with extreme overall weakness it could not gain the necessary momentum to push higher and it retreated to the lows. The SP made a new low at 900.25 bounced to 902.00 and pushed lower to 899.25. The SP held at our support area and pushed up to 904.50, pulled back to 902.00 and continued higher to 907.00 from where it sat back to 903.75 but managed to come back and pushed higher to 911.50. The index pulled back to the previous high at 907.00 and continued to press higher reaching 914.00. Unable to continue higher, the index pulled back, traded in a narrow range below the highs and later pushed down to 905.00, bounced to 909.00 and pulled back into the close. For the day the SP lost 2.75 points and settled at 905.00, the Nasdaq added 8.25 points finishing the day at 1452.50 and the Russell closed modestly higher at 503.10. The Dow lost 7 points closing at 8497.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The SP continued to set back and closed below the 918.00 area. During the last week I mentioned this level as the line in the sand between higher prices and the possibility that the summer high has been posted for the already 100 day old rally. I also mentioned that two consecutive closes below that area is a good indicator of the failure to move higher and will negate my scenario for another visit to the 950.00 or higher before the end of this week. Anyway, if the markets will continue with the current pullback and not get reversed from a lower opening or from early weakness in today’s Wednesday’s session, the way may be open for a test of the 887.00, that level is a good area to get positioned for those who believe that the uptrend will continue without posting a higher low after the March lows. We may see a rally from the 900.00 area, obvious support, but if the bulls won’t jump aggressively near that area, then the story for the rally will be over and markets will turn down, selling the rallies will be the way to go. For today’s trading session, I don’t want to consider a long trade as a position unless the three indexes are trading in positive territory, but if the SP founds early support around the 900.00 area, it could bounce to 912.00 and 918.00.”

As expected, the early weakness found support around the 900.00 area giving way to a good rebound that reached the levels mentioned on yesterday’s newsletter.
The SP pulled back strongly founding support at the “obvious”, and with yesterdays moderately lower close, after a session where prices fluctuated, it completed the parameters for a first degree countertrend move, three sessions. So we have a few possibilities for today before next Friday option expiration, the first one is that the markets show another balancing session with narrow trading ranges that could get expanded slightly above yesterday’s high and reach, maybe, the 918.00 area, or make a marginal new low just to bounce and close on the 905.50-910.00 band.
The second one is that yesterday’s bounce was only a one day recovery attempt and the downtrend will get resumed pressing below the 900.00 area, and the third one, is that guided by the Nasdaq and the Russell which showed good buying at yesterday’s lows, the SP start to reverse this week losses and post a strong session where the upside objective will be the 924.00-925.00 levels.
Obviously, I can not predict what will happen, that analysis is for the astrology experts, so my work may be a bit easier, try to figure which of the previous scenarios has the higher probabilities to happen, we know, we could see balancing, rally and sell off in one session, but we will try to give a chance to the fact that the third negative session was mixed and bullish divergences were seen between the different markets.
So, if the lows, whatever they are, get posted during the first hour of the session, I will be a buyer once the markets turn positive, only a double bottom at yesterday’s lows could signal a rally while markets are trading in the red, but if the markets rallied first and the bounce lost its momentum just below yesterday’s highs look for a double top and increased weakness once the markets turn negative.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 908.00-909.00 on the SP, 1455.00-1456.50 on the Nasdaq and 505.60-506.80 on the Russell, if the early action or the turnaround from lower prices is solid, those should get easily exceeded pushing the markets to test yesterday’s highs at 912.00-913.50 on the SP, 1459.00-1461.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.70-510.40 on the Russell. If those can not hold, posting double tops with yesterday’s highs, then look for the move to continue pushing the indexes up to 917.50-918.50 on the SP, 1469.00-1471.50 on the NQ and 513.40-514.20 on the Russell. Trading above them could invite new buying in all the markets.

There is support at 903.50-902.25 on the SP, 1447.00-1445.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.20-499.30 on the Russell, if those can not hold look for a test of yesterday’s lows at 900.50-899.75 on the SP, 1441.00-1439.50 on the Nasdaq and 497.20-495.50 on the Russell. If those hold and the session ends on the green, markets may have completed the pullback, but if new lows get posted on the charts, new sellers may join the move pushing the indexes down to 896.75-894.50 on the SP, 1433.00-1432.00 on the NQ and 492.40-490.90 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 921.00-923.00 1476.00-1478.00 517.50-518.60
Resistance 3 917.50-918.50 1469.00-1471.50 513.40-514.20
Resistance 2 912.00-913.50 1459.00-1461.00 508.70-510.40
Resistance 1 908.00-909.00 1455.00-1456.50 505.60-506.80
PIVOT 906.25 1453.25 503.10
Support 1 903.50-902.25 1447.00-1445.00 501.20-499.30
Support 2 900.50-899.75 1441.00-1439.50 497.20-495.50
Support 3 896.75-894.50 1433.00-1432.00 492.40-490.90
Support 4 891.00-889.50 1426.00-1424.00 485.90-484.10

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
978.00 1604.44 568.2
953.52 1552.62 545.9
938.52 1520.87 532.2
929.25 1501.25 523.7
923.52 1489.12 518.5
914.25 1469.50 510.0
908.52 1457.37 504.8
906.75 1453.63 503.2
904.98 1449.88 501.5
899.25 1437.75 496.3
889.98 1418.13 487.8
884.25 1406.00 482.6
874.98 1386.38 474.1
859.98 1354.63 460.4
835.50 1302.81 438.1

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 909.75 1477.25 513.40
AS DAILY LOW 894.75 1445.50 499.70

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 25, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-June-2009

Durable Goods Orders up by 1.8%, New Home Sales down 0.6%. Fed maintains the benchmark interest rates between zero and .25% and leaves the bond purchases unchanged as it said that inflation will remain subdued for some time. Markets closed mixed for the session.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Q1 GDP- Final

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading slightly higher for most of the nightly session, the E-mini SP started the day at 897.00 and leaded by the strength on the Nasdaq continued to push upward reaching 900.50. After a small pullback that held above 898.00, the index broke higher reaching 903.50. As the short covering continued the SP made a new high at 905.00 where the rally halted. The SP consolidated near the highs, and, finally it continued to press higher and reached 906.50. Once the early part of the session was over, markets traded with less volume as they wait for the later release of the FOMC rate decision and policy. The SP pulled back to 901.25 and held bouncing back to 904.50, once more, the index tested the late lows. Just as the FOMC policy statement was released the SP pushed down to 899.25 bounced back to 904.25 and traded in that range for the next minutes, finally, the markets sold off, the Dow entered into negative territory and the SP pushed down to 893.75. The SP bounced back to 899.25, failed to trade higher, made a new low at 891.75 and bounced to 896.25. The SP tested once more the lows and pushed up to 897.25 trading quietly into the end of the session. For the day the SP added 7.75 points closing the day at 898.00, the Nasdaq gained 23.25 points and settled at 1447.25 and the Russell was up 6.50 points at 493.00. The Dow finished the session at 8299 after giving back early gains, a loss of 23 points during the session.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
After Monday’s downtrend session where the daily highs were done at the opening, the normal Tuesday’s narrow range session where markets consolidated the previous day sell off and yesterday’s early rally in front of the FOMC policy statement and rate decision and late sell off attempt that managed to hold above the weekly lows, markets may have found a short term bottom.
Yesterday’s trading volumes where not higher than in the previous session, so if we were waiting for some kind of exhausting low, even it may have putted in on yesterday session ,I would had preferred higher volumes and settlements near the daily lows.
Just seven days ago I wrote about the probabilities to test the 887.00 area on the SP, which was after the indexes posted triple tops and intraday failures to hold their gains, the weakest of the indexes, the Dow; after this area was tested on the SP, it is probable that the profit taking will hold, and the markets will keep a neutral position in front of the end of the 2Q, fund manager have to show something better than three months ago.
At the moment that I am writing my newsletter, markets have a nightly rally, the 907.00-908.00 areas on the SP, and the 918.00 level which showed strong resistance during the last week will have to get exceeded in the next 48 hours if that markets wants to deal with the 924.00-926.00 band from which the last sell off started, until that, there is a chance that instead of moving higher, this market will consolidate for a few days and then resume the downtrend, obviously all the time that the index holds this week lows, the markets area OK, but the other main markets, leaded by the Nasdaq will have to join the rebound and show some follow through to the upside in order to avoid another wide range downside session. Take into account that 908.50 are the 61.8 Fibonacci between the weekly highs and lows, so this area has to get exceeded and hold on a pullback for this rebound to gain additional momentum.
For today’s trading session, early strength may fail to hold all the time that the SP does not break above the 908.50 level, if markets sell off from an early bounce, look for the downside pressure top increase once the index trades below 897.50.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 901.00-903.00 on the SP, 1452.00-1454.00 on the Nasdaq and 494.20-496.10on the Russell. If markets trade higher, look for them to test 907.00-908.00 on the SP, 1460.00-1462.50 on the Nasdaq and 499.40-500.40 on the Russell. Those levels on the SP are the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement between the weekly lows and highs, so for the markets to resume their uptrend, those will have to get exceeded pushing the indexes up to 911.25-912.50 on the SP, 1468.00-1470.00 on the Nasdaq and 504.00-505.80on the Russell.

There is strong support at 894.50-893.00 on the SP, 1442.50-1440.00 on the Nasdaq and 490.50-489.30 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above them, but if they fail, look for the key areas to get tested at 888.75-888.00 on the SP, 1435.00-1433.00 on the Nasdaq and 486.00-485.60 on the Russell. If the markets can not rally from there, these week double bottom on the SP at 887.00 will have to hold on the close or more downside action could happen during the next few sessions. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 917.75-918.00 1476.00-1478.00 508.50-509.40
Resistance 3 911.25-912.50 1468.00-1470.00 504.00-505.80
Resistance 2 907.00-908.00 1460.00-1462.50 499.40-500.40
Resistance 1 901.00-903.00 1452.00-1454.00 494.20-496.10
PIVOT 897.50 1441.50 492.40
Support 1 894.50-893.00 1442.50-1440.00 490.50-489.30
Support 2 888.75-888.00 1435.00-1433.00 486.00-485.60
Support 3 882.00-881.50 1426.75-1425.00 481.20-479.00
Support 4 889.00-878.00 1418.00-1416.00 473.00-472.60

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
984.06 1614.25 555.8
954.28 1553.87 533.9
936.03 1516.87 520.5
924.75 1494.00 512.2
917.78 1479.87 507.1
906.50 1457.00 498.8
899.53 1442.87 493.7
897.38 1438.50 492.1
895.22 1434.13 490.5
888.25 1420.00 485.4
876.97 1397.13 477.1
870.00 1383.00 472.0
858.72 1360.13 463.7
840.47 1323.13 450.3
810.69 1262.75 428.5

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 911.00 1470.00 402.60
AS DAILY LOW 893.00 1433.25 489.20

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 26, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 26-June-2009

Initial Claims higher than expected at 627K, Continuing Claims at 6.73 million and the 1Q GDP final numbers at minus 5.5%; Bernanke says Central Bank acted with “highest integrity” in Merrill deal. Markets rallied strong.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM PCE Core
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment-Rev.

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading higher during the Globex session in which the SP reached 908.50, the markets opened lower. The E-mini SP started the session at 892.50 and bounced to 894.50, it broke higher and rallied all the way up to 905.50 where the move lost its momentum. With good support above the 900.00 level, the SP pulled back to 901.00, bounced to 903.75, pulled back to 902.00 and pushed higher breaking above the Globex high reaching 910.50 and then 914.75. Finally the rally stalled and the market traded in a sideways pattern but without selling coming into the markets, the SP pushed up to 917.75. The SP pulled back to 914.00, held, pushed lower to 910.50 bouncing back to 915.00. During the last minutes of the session, the SP broke below 910.00 and rapidly recovers and closed near the daily highs. For the session the SP added 18.50 points and settled at 916.50, the Nasdaq gained 25.75 closing the day at 1473.00 and the Russell advanced 12.70 points closing at 505.70. The Dow also posted a solid rally with a 172 points gain closing at 8472.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote:”After Monday’s downtrend session where the daily highs were done at the opening, the normal Tuesday’s narrow range session where markets consolidated the previous day sell off and yesterday’s early rally in front of the FOMC policy statement and rate decision and late sell off attempt that managed to hold above the weekly lows, markets may have found a short term bottom. Just seven days ago I wrote about the probabilities to test the 887.00 area on the SP, which was after the indexes posted triple tops and intraday failures to hold their gains, the weakest of the indexes, the Dow; after this area was tested on the SP, it is probable that the profit taking will hold, and the markets will keep a neutral position in front of the end of the 2Q, fund manager have to show something better than three months ago. At the moment that I am writing my newsletter, markets have a nightly rally, the 907.00-908.00 areas on the SP, and the 918.00 level which showed strong resistance during the last week will have to get exceeded in the next 48 hours if that markets wants to deal with the 924.00-926.00 band from which the last sell off started, until that, there is a chance that instead of moving higher, this market will consolidate for a few days and then resume the downtrend, obviously all the time that the index holds this week lows, the markets area OK, but the other main markets, leaded by the Nasdaq will have to join the rebound and show some follow through to the upside in order to avoid another wide range downside session. Take into account that 908.50 are the 61.8 Fibonacci between the weekly highs and lows, so this area has to get exceeded and hold on a pullback for this rebound to gain additional momentum. For today’s trading session, early strength may fail to hold all the time that the SP does not break above the 908.50 level, if markets sell off from an early bounce, look for the downside pressure top increase once the index trades below 897.50.”

So the weekly lows held and after the markets posted an early higher low and intraday double bottom we had an uptrend session, once the 908.50 area was exceeded it was all for the shorts, and this time, it was a broad based rally, the Dow joined the move.
The SP failed short of the 918.00 area, the Dow couldn’t make it to the 8500 level and the Nasdaq stalled at the 1473.00-1475.00 resistance levels. All these are very important price levels, for the rally to continue, into the end of the month, all three markets have to close above them, otherwise, yesterday’s rally may give way to a consolidation or narrow range session during today’s trading session and maybe for the rest of the month.
If we look at the daily charts we can see the huge sell off that happened last Monday that came after three days of a weak rally and that pushed markets to a new low, below the June 17 low, then we have a narrow range session with a positive close and then two positive sessions with yesterday’s solid move. So three days up, a one day sell off and another three days of rally. This may look positive, but for the move to get extended and not fall under a first degree countertrend in a down trending market, a few things have to happen, first, if today markets consolidate yesterday’s big move, it will be normal, but the close can not be weak, even taking into account that it is a Friday and traders may avoid a long position for the weekend; second, nothing good happens if the SP does not break and close above the 918.50 area; and third, the June 16 924.75 on the SP from where the recent pullback gained momentum has to get exceeded in a solid way.
Yesterday’s rally looks a bit different, volumes were better and the Dow joined the move, so I will be very surprised if today’s session reverses yesterday’s gains, but we could see back and forth action between the 908.50 area and the 918.50 break or made high.
With some shorts trapped at lower prices, I may favor buying the deeps, however I don’t expect another trend session, so two side action may be seen, selling may be done near the resistance areas, but if the 922.00 level gets exceeded be careful as a short covering rally may push the SP up to 931.00 if we have another strong session. (Try to keep a long position if the NQ is over performing the SP).

TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance at 919.00-921.50 on the SP, 1478.00-1480.00 on the Nasdaq and 507.60-509.60 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there, look for a good reversal, but if those can not hold the buying activity, markets may test 924.00-925.50 on the SP, 1486.00-1488.50 and 511.50-513.40 on the Russell. Another short trade may be try at those areas, but expect a strong breakout if they do not hold, that may push the indexes up to 930.50-931.25 on the SP, 1496.00-1497.00 on the Nasdaq and 517.30-517.60 on the Russell before the session is over.

There is support at 913.50-911.75 on the SP, 1468.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 503.80-501.90 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above them, but if they fail, look for strong support at 909.00-908.00 on the SP, 1462.00-1460.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.90-497.70 on the Russell. If those fail, markets probably will gain downside momentum and go for the next support levels at 903.50-901.50 on the SP, 1451.50-1448.50 on the Nasdaq and 494.20-492.40 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK>

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 935.00-936.50 1504.00-1506.00 521.20-522.40
Resistance 3 930.50-931.25 1496.00-1497.00 517.30-517.60
Resistance 2 924.00-925.50 1486.00-1488.50 511.50-513.40
Resistance 1 919.00-921.50 1478.00-1480.00 507.60-509.60
PIVOT 908.50 1460.75 500.20
Support 1 913.50-911.75 1468.00-1466.00 503.80-501.90
Support 2 909.00-908.00 1462.00-1460.00 499.90-497.70
Support 3 903.50-901.50 1451.50-1448.50 494.20-492.40
Support 4 899.00-897.00 1444.00-1442.00 486.90-484.70

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1031.44 1663.75 597.2
987.78 1591.94 562.9
961.03 1547.94 541.9
944.50 1520.75 528.9
934.28 1503.94 520.9
917.75 1476.75 507.9
907.53 1459.94 499.9
904.38 1454.75 497.4
901.22 1449.56 494.9
891.00 1432.75 486.9
874.47 1405.56 473.9
864.25 1388.75 465.9
847.72 1361.56 452.9
820.97 1317.56 431.9
777.31 1245.75 397.7

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 930.50 1496.50 517.30
AS DAILY LOW 903.75 1452.50 496.30

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 29, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-June-2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-June-2009
Personal Income up 1.4% on stimulus checks and Personal Spending up .3%, Consumer sentiment slightly better than expected; markets fluctuated in a narrow range.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 03-July-2009
R3 940.00
R2 933.25
R1 917.00
PP 905.75
S1 894.75
S2 881.00
S3 870.50

ECONOMIC DATA
None

FRIDAY’S MARKET
With the markets trading quietly during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 913.50 and after making an early low at 910.50 it bounced back to 914.25, pulled back a couple of points and leaded by the Nasdaq which turned positive pushed up to 916.25. The SP pulled back to 912.50 bounced to 915.00 and pushed lower to 909.75. The markets held and the SP bounced back to 914.50 but failed to break higher and pulled back once more to the lows. After posting a new marginal low at 909.50 the index managed to post a feeble bounce but failed once more to push higher and made a new low at 908.50. With the Nasdaq holding, the SP continue to trade above the pivot point and bounced to 914.50. After trading for many hours on a narrow range, the SP made a breakout attempt that reached 916.00 but failed to gain the necessary momentum and kept trading between the daily ranges, for the day, the SP lost 2.50 points and settled at 914.00, the Nasdaq added 3.75 points closing the session at 1476.75 and the Russell closed higher by 1.40 points at 507.10. The Dow lost 34 points closing another negative week, Friday’s settlement at 8438.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “The SP failed short of the 918.00 area, the Dow couldn’t make it to the 8500 level and the Nasdaq stalled at the 1473.00-1475.00 resistance levels. All these are very important price levels, for the rally to continue into the end of the month, all three markets have to close above them, otherwise, yesterday’s rally may give way to a consolidation or narrow range session during today’s trading session and maybe for the rest of the month. If we look at the daily charts we can see the huge sell off that happened last Monday that came after three days of a weak rally and that pushed markets to a new low, below the June 17 low, then we have a narrow range session with a positive close and then two positive sessions with yesterday’s solid move. So three days up, a one day sell off and another three days of rally. This may look positive, but for the move to get extended and not fall under a first degree countertrend in a down trending market, a few things have to happen, first, if today markets consolidate yesterday’s big move, it will be normal, but the close can not be weak, even taking into account that it is a Friday and traders may avoid a long position for the weekend; second, nothing good happens if the SP does not break and close above the 918.50 area; and third, the June 16 924.75 on the SP from where the recent pullback gained momentum has to get exceeded in a solid way. Yesterday’s rally looks a bit different, volumes were better and the Dow joined the move, so I will be very surprised if today’s session reverses yesterday’s gains, but we could see back and forth action between the 908.50 area and the 918.50 break or made high.”

Markets consolidated the previous session strong rally and they traded in a narrow range closing mixed for the day, the strength in the Nasdaq helped the SP, the low for the session was at my 908.50 and the Globex high was just half point above my 918.50 level.
Last week sell off attempt may have not ended yet, the SP is facing two strong resistance areas, the first one around the 918.00 area and the second one on the 924.00-926.00 band; for this market to give a try at the 950.00 area or higher, the index has to close above those areas, until then, there area great chances that last Monday’s lows or a bit lower will get tested.
This week is full of economic data, is also a shortened holiday week as markets will be closed next Friday for an extended weekend honoring the Independence Day, so the main economic numbers, the unemployment figures will get released next Thursday. Also we have the end of the second quarter, I suspect that fund managers will try to keep the markets at reasonable levels and the markets will rebound if there are some daily or intraday sell offs. Additional to this, as the unemployment figures are a lagging indicator, I think that bad economic data will get accepted by the market players and the markets will hold, at least for the week.
Saying this, early weakness or a weak close on Monday, may turn to be a buying opportunity for the rest of the week, and maybe, the SP will show more consolidation between the 900.00 and 925.00 levels, but take into account that initial weakness will be present below the 908.50 to 905.75, and it could see additional selling coming into the markets if that index trades below 898.00-896.00.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 918.00-919.00 on the SP, 1480.00-1482.00 on the Nasdaq and 509.00-509.90 on the Russell, those levels on the SP are critical for that market to push up, if the Nasdaq is strong it may help the SP to push higher and test 924.00-925.00 while the NQ reaches 1486.00-1488.00 and the Russell 512.10-512.70. Those areas on the SP may fail the first time they get tested; many sellers are ready to take a chance there, however, if they get exceeded look for the indexes to press higher reaching 928.00-929.50 on the SP, 1492.50-1494.00 on the Nasdaq and 517.30-518.50 on the Russell.

There is some support above Friday’s consolidation levels at 912.00-911.00 on the SP, 1473.50-1471.75 on the Nasdaq and 505.20-504.30 on the Russell. Failing there may result in a test of last Friday’s lows at 908.50-907.50 on the SP, 1466.00-1464.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.90-501.50 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in there and the markets post a double bottom, expect the selling to get some momentum pushing the indexes down to 904.25-903.25 on the SP, 1457.50-1456.00 on the Nasdaq and 497.50-496.80 on the Russell. If the markets trade below them we may see another wide range downward session. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 935.00-936.00 1501.75-1504.00 522.10-523.70
Resistance 3 928.00-929.50 1492.50-1494.00 517.30-518.50
Resistance 2 924.00-925.00 1486.00-1488.00 512.10-512.70
Resistance 1 918.00-919.00 1480.00-1482.00 509.00-509.90
PIVOT 913.75 1474.00 506.90
Support 1 912.00-911.00 1473.50-1471.75 505.20-504.30
Support 2 908.50-907.50 1466.00-1464.00 501.90-501.50
Support 3 904.25-903.25 1457.50-1456.00 497.50-496.80
Support 4 898.00-896.00 1444.00-1442.00 492.00-490.60

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
963.63 1559.56 554.7
946.49 1529.78 538.2
935.99 1511.53 528.1
929.50 1500.25 521.9
925.49 1493.28 518.0
919.00 1482.00 511.8
914.99 1475.03 507.9
913.75 1472.88 506.8
912.51 1470.72 505.6
908.50 1463.75 501.7
902.01 1452.47 495.5
898.00 1445.50 491.6
891.51 1434.22 485.4
881.01 1415.97 475.3
863.88 1386.19 458.8

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 916.50 1488.50 514.50
AS DAILY LOW 906.00 1470.25 504.40

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jun 30, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-June-2009

Bernie Madoff gets sentenced to 150 years in jail. VIX drops to lowest levels since Lehman collapse

ECONOMIC DATA
9:00 AM Consumer Confidence
9:00 A&P CaseShiller Home Price Index
9:45 AM Chicago PMI

FRIDAY’S MARKET
Markets started the holiday shortened week on the green. The E-mini SP started the session at 917.00 and pulled back a point in a half. After trying to push higher, above the opening price, the index moved lower to 914.00, the index bounced back to 916.00 and traded in a narrow range for the first minutes of the session. The SP made a new low at 911.75 and bounced to 913.00. While the Russell posted a new low, the SP held and rallied all the way up to 918.50, and after a few minutes and once the Nasdaq started to cooperate it pushed to a new high at 923.25. The rally ended and the markets traded in a narrow range near the daily highs, later, the upside pressure pushed the SP up to 924.00. The narrow range trading pattern continued and despite the pullback on the Nasdaq and Russell the SP refused to break down. Markets traded in a narrow range into the end of the session, the SP added 7.25 points and settled at 921.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 4.75 points closing the session at 1481.50 and the Russell gained 1.70 points at 508.00
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Last week sell off attempt may have not ended yet, the SP is facing two strong resistance areas, the first one around the 918.00 area and the second one on the 924.00-926.00 band; for this market to give a try at the 950.00 area or higher, the index has to close above those areas, until then, there area great chances that last Monday’s lows or a bit lower will get tested. This week is full of economic data, is also a shortened holiday week as markets will be closed next Friday for an extended weekend honoring the Independence Day, so the main economic numbers, the unemployment figures will get released next Thursday. Also we have the end of the second quarter, I suspect that fund managers will try to keep the markets at reasonable levels and the markets will rebound if there are some daily or intraday sell offs. Additional to this, as the unemployment figures are a lagging indicator, I think that bad economic data will get accepted by the market players and the markets will hold, at least for the week. Saying this, early weakness or a weak close on Monday, may turn to be a buying opportunity for the rest of the week, and maybe, the SP will show more consolidation between the 900.00 and 925.00 levels, but take into account that initial weakness will be present below the 908.50 to 905.75, and it could see additional selling coming into the markets if that index trades below 898.00-896.00.”

Markets made their daily lows during the night and the earlier pullback gave way to a solid move that reached my 924.00 area. That is the June 19 high from where the SP, after a narrow range session, saw a sharp sell off that pushed that index below the 890.00 area.
If yesterday I mentioned on my newsletter that the SP MUST close above the 924.00 area for that market to give another try to the highs, yesterday’s action just confirms the importance of that level. Take into account that once the end of quarter is gone, a profit taking move that pushed the SP below the 890.00 area may be seen, to negate this scenario, the 924.00-926.00 area may get solidly exceeded and hold for two consecutive closes, or the rally from last week lows may be only a countertrend move in a market that may see lower prices.
Another important factor is the VIX, which fell to its lowest levels in the year; it seems that traders are very confident with the market condition, the March to July rally and the economic data. This is a red flag, too much complacency, but that does not mean that the markets can not move higher.
The slow activity seen during yesterday’s session may continue for the rest of the week, and while today we will get the first economic piece of data, no matter if the numbers are goods or bad, the daily sideways pattern may hold for the rest of the week.
So, let’s try to make our life easier, and let’s give a chance to the NQ to show the way, but with high precaution as mixed market conditions where rotation is seen between the different indexes, may give way to erratic moves that do not result in a trend.
For today’s trading session, once the economic numbers get released, go long once the NQ trades in positive territory, but beware of any bullishness if both, the SP and Nasdaq area trading in negative territory as markets could surprise those who overweight the lower VIX thinking that the way is only to the upside.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 922.50-924.25 on the SP, 1484.00-1486.00 on the Nasdaq and 509.10-510.20on the Russell, as I wrote yesterday, those levels on the SP are critical for that market to push up, the Nasdaq may stop lagging in order to help the SP to push higher to 926.00-927.75 while the NQ reaches 1489.00-1490.00 and the Russell 513.20-514.50. If the rally does not end there, then the indexes may go for the next areas at 930.50-931.00 on the SP, 1494.00-1496.00 on the Nasdaq and 518.00-518.60on the Russell.

Initial support at 919.75-918.00 on the SP, 1476.50-1474.00 on the Nasdaq and 506.10-505.30 on the Russell. Some selling may be seen below those areas pushing the markets down to 916.00-914.00 on the SP, 1468.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.50-500.80 on the Russell. If those fail to hold and the sideways pattern is due to continue, then the next levels at 912.00-911.00 on the SP,1461.00-1460.50 on the Nasdaq and 494.90-493.70 on the Russell must hold. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 934.25-936.00 1501.75-1503.50 522.30-523.40
Resistance 3 930.50-931.00 1494.00-1496.00 518.00-518.60
Resistance 2 926.00-927.75 1489.00-1490.00 513.20-514.50
Resistance 1 922.50-924.25 1484.00-1486.00 509.10-510.20
PIVOT 917.50 1480.25 506.70
Support 1 919.75-918.00 1476.50-1474.00 506.10-505.30
Support 2 916.00-914.00 1468.00-1466.00 501.50-500.80
Support 3 912.00-911.00 1461.00-1460.50 494.90-493.70
Support 4 907.50-906.00 1454.00-1452.00 491.10-490.20

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
995.19 1601.94 562.1
967.85 1559.91 542.8
951.10 1534.16 531.0
940.75 1518.25 523.7
934.35 1508.41 519.2
924.00 1492.50 511.9
917.60 1482.66 507.4
915.63 1479.63 506.0
913.65 1476.59 504.6
907.25 1466.75 500.1
896.90 1450.84 492.8
890.50 1441.00 488.3
880.15 1425.09 481.0
863.40 1399.34 469.2
836.06 1357.31 450.0

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 931.00 1499.25 515.90
AS DAILY LOW 914.25 1474.00 504.10

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 1, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 1st-July-2009

World confidence improving, Home prices continue to drop, but less than expected, as foreclosures rise. Chicago PMI increases to 39.9 during June and Consumer Confidence declines as job outlook looks gloomy

ECONOMIC DATA
8:15 AM ADP Employment
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Auto Sales
2:00 PM Truck Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading quietly during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the session at 922.75 and after testing 922.00 it bounced to 925.00, after holding near that level and once the economic data started to get released, the SP made a new high at 926.25 but backed off to 923.00. The SP rallied back to 925.50 and with the Consumer Confidence data out it sold off to 918.00 an after a failed attempt to break back above the 920.,00 area, the index pushed strongly down to 910.75. The SP bounced back to 913.75, pulled back to test the daily lows and failed giving way to anew low at 908.25. The SP bounced back to 911.50 while sitting for a long time near the lows, another pullback failed to break to a new low and the index held pushing up to 912.75. While the Nasdaq kept lagging, the other indexes showed more support, and with extremely low volumes, the SP bounced to 913.75. After a few attempts to break higher it pulled back to the lows but rebounded during the last part of the session, for the day, the SP lost 5.75 p;oints and settled at 915.50, the Nasdaq lost 5.25 points ending the session at 1476.25 and the Russell ended lower by less than a point at 507.20. The Dow lost 82 points finishing the day at 8447.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Markets made their daily lows during the night and the earlier pullback gave way to a solid move that reached my 924.00 area. That is the June 19 high from where the SP, after a narrow range session, saw a sharp sell off that pushed that index below the 890.00 area. If yesterday I mentioned on my newsletter that the SP MUST close above the 924.00 area for that market to give another try to the highs, yesterday’s action just confirms the importance of that level. Take into account that once the end of quarter is gone, a profit taking move that pushed the SP below the 890.00 area may be seen, to negate this scenario, the 924.00-926.00 area may get solidly exceeded and hold for two consecutive closes, or the rally from last week lows may be only a countertrend move in a market that may see lower prices. Another important factor is the VIX, which fell to its lowest levels in the year; it seems that traders are very confident with the market condition, the March to July rally and the economic data. This is a red flag, too much complacency, but that does not mean that the markets can not move higher. For today’s trading session, once the economic numbers get released, go long once the NQ trades in positive territory, but beware of any bullishness if both, the SP and Nasdaq area trading in negative territory as markets could surprise those who overweight the lower VIX thinking that the way is only to the upside.”

Yesterday’s early marginal new highs, just above the 924.00-926.00, obvious resistance areas, from where the markets made a U turn, has probably placed a temporary top after four days where the indexes bounced from their most recent lows. Those levels and the 918.50 and 908.50 areas will continue to play an important role during the next sessions and weeks.
The end of quarter is over and despite the sell off from the early highs, the 908.50 level was well defended and the markets bounced lately in the session, so if they will continue to try and push lower resuming the downtrend, another down session may be seen today; in that case we could call a short term top. There is not confirmation yet that this is the case, and the rest of the week could show more sideways action between the 908.50 and 925.00 areas.
So until the SP trades back above the 925.00 level we can assume that in the best case the markets will continue to build a base and rally later in the summer and in the worst case, once the SP closes below 908.50, a new low below the 890.00 area with possible support around 878.00 may be seen, .
There are a bunch of economic reports to get released during the sessions, and volumes are very light in front of the holiday, so be careful as the markets may show some erratic moves.
For today’s trading session, if yesterday’s sell off was only a one day event, markets MUST rally today, but a second negative session will probably see more downside follow through during the rest of the week. Try to maintain a long position above 918.50 but be careful if the SP starts to trade below it

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 917.00-918.00 on the SP, 1481.00-1483.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.80-509.60 on the Russell, Nothing good happens all the time that the markets are trading below them, if those get exceeded look for some short covering that may push the markets back up to 920.50-921.25 on the SP, 1490.00-1491.00 on the Nasdaq and 511.90-512.50 on the Russell. Those were the last highs before yesterday’s sell off, so they have to get exceeded with good momentum in order to give another try to 925.00-926.00 on the SP, 1501.00-1503.00 on the Nasdaq and 514.60-516.50 on the Russell

Initial support at 913.00-912.00 on the SP, 1473.00-1471.00 on the Nasdaq and 506.00-504.80 on the Russell. Those areas on the Nasdaq are very important, so if that markets holds there and lead a good rebound, the way will be up, but if those fail, look for some weakness pushing the indexes down to 910.00-908.00 on the SP, 1466.00-1464.00 on the Nasdaq and 502.40-501.20 on the Russell. I don’t have to explain the importance of the 908.00 level on the SP, it is the key to maintain that index in a solid position, so trading below it will probably give control to the bears and push the markets down to 905.00-902.50 on the SP, 1460.50-1358.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.10-497.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 932.00-934.00 1514.00-1516.00 520.60-522.20
Resistance 3 925.00-926.00 1501.00-1503.00 514.60-516.50
Resistance 2 920.50-921.25 1490.00-1491.00 511.90-512.50
Resistance 1 917.00-918.00 1481.00-1483.00 508.80-509.60
PIVOT 916.50 1478.00 507.80
Support 1 913.00-912.00 1473.00-1471.00 506.00-504.80
Support 2 910.00-908.00 1466.00-1464.00 502.40-501.20
Support 3 905.00-902.50 1460.50-1458.00 499.10-497.80
Support 4 898.50-897.00 1452.00-1451.00 492.00-490.40

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1002.75 1602.25 549.5
973.37 1559.82 535.3
955.37 1533.82 526.6
944.25 1517.75 521.2
937.37 1507.82 517.9
926.25 1491.75 512.5
919.37 1481.82 509.2
917.25 1478.75 508.2
915.13 1475.68 507.1
908.25 1465.75 503.8
897.13 1449.68 498.4
890.25 1439.75 495.1
879.13 1423.68 489.7
861.13 1397.68 481.0
831.75 1355.25 466.8

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 920.75 1484.00 509.90
AS DAILY LOW 902.50 1458.00 501.20

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 6, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-July-2009

Weekly Initial claims down to 614K, Continuing Claims at 6.7 million; Unemployment rate at 9.5% and Nonfarm Payrolls down 467K; U.S. factory orders rise in May. Markets sold off strongly in front of the holiday.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 10-July-2009
R3 940.25
R2 916.50
R1 910.75
PP 904.75
S1 881.25
S2 869.00
S3 845.75

ECONOMIC DATA
None
WEEKLY RECAP
Despite that the markets traded with ultra light volumes during the week, and that the action seemed to hold intact a bullish sideways patter, markets sold off strongly in front of the Independence Day. Monday’s trading session kecked on the green, markets opened higher, the daily lows were posted early in the morning and the close was in positive territory, during the session, the expected sentence for Bernie Madoff was dictated, 150 years in jail. The VIX made its lowest level since the Lehman’s collapse signaling an excess of complacency in the markets, for the day, the SP added 7.25 points and settled at 921.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 4.75 points closing the session at 1481.50 and the Russell gained 1.70 points at 508.00. Tuesday’s trading session was a reversal of the previous day, markets opened high but after failing to hold above the 924.00-926.00 short term resistance areas they sold off but managed to bounce into the end of the session, the early rally was based on global optimism that the worst of the crises my be behind us, a report about housing prices showed that value continues to go down but a lower pace, also the Chicago PMI increased to 39.9 during June and Consumer Confidence declined as job outlook continues to look gloomy. By the close, the SP lost 5.75 points and settled at 915.50, the Nasdaq lost 5.25 points ending the session at 1476.25 and the Russell ended lower by less than a point at 507.20. The Dow lost 82 points finishing the day at 8447. Wednesday’s trading session saw a new marginal high on the SP, but once more, it failed to hold the gains, volumes continued to be light and the economic reports were mixed, the ADP Employment fell 473K in June; ISM Index rose to 44.8, the highest since last August and Pending Home sales rose for the fourth consecutive month, the day the SP gained 3.75 points and settled at 919.25 and the Nasdaq ended higher by 2.50. Thursday’s pre holiday session was ugly; the economic reports in which the monthly unemployment data for the month of June was included were less than pink, the Weekly Initial claims were down to 614K, Continuing Claims at 6.7 million; Unemployment rate at 9.5% and Nonfarm Payrolls down 467K; U.S. factory orders rose in May, but markets sold off strongly opening the way for lower prices into the next few sessions, the SP lost 26.00 points and settled at 893.25, the Nasdaq lost 33.50 finishing the session at 1445.25 and the Russell gave back 17.00 points closing at 497.30. The Dow also sold odd strongly losing 223 points finishing the holiday shortened week at 8280.

THURSDAY’S MARKET
After trading lower during the Globex session and once the unemployment numbers get released, the E-mini SP pushed down strongly to new nightly lows as they extended their losses. The E-mini SP started the session at 907.00 and quickly pushed lower to down to 904.50, unable to rebound the index continued to trade under pressure tested 900.50 and then 897.25. The sell off dried and the index tried to bounce, but after testing the 900.50 area it pushed to new lows at 896.25. Like in the previous sessions, once the move was done the markets traded in a narrow range, this time near the lows. Late on the session and unable to rebound, bears presses to new lows, for the day, the SP lost 26.00 points and settled at 893.25, the Nasdaq lost 33.50 finishing the session at 1445.25 and the Russell gave back 17.00 points closing at 497.30. The Dow also sold odd strongly losing 223 points finishing the holiday shortened week at 8280.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “However a wide range downside session could give way to some selling, and this can happen during today, once the unemployment numbers get released. I wrote on one of my previous week reports, that the job market numbers are a lagging indicator, and that even if the data is bad and the initial reaction is negative, markets may be able to rebound; I don’t see those changing unless a wide range negative session shows some follow through. Today, most of the economic numbers will get released before the opening, then later the Factory Orders numbers will be out, so the early action is what traders will be expecting and then they will leave for the long weekend; if you don’t catch the early move, just relax and start your vacation. Markets will be closed tomorrow.”

After struggling during the first three days of the week to move upward, Thursday, the index posted a strong sell off and a close near the daily lows. The fact that the strong move happened with low volumes and on the last trading session before the holiday extended weekend may not give to it the validity as it would have occurred during a normal week. That does not means that “it does not shows on the charts” but many time happens that pre holiday moves get reversed during the next trading session. However, the move was very strong and could give way to one or two sessions where it gets consolidated and then move downward to a new low, or just continued to push lower finally showing some follow through.
During the past sessions, before the June unemployment numbers which get released last Thursday gave way to the sell off, I wrote that this is a lagging indicator and I would be expecting that even if it gives way to a strong sell off, as it happened, the markets may be able to rebound, so, if the markets will act in this form, and rally during the week, the SP will have to hold above the 877.00 area, a few lows were seen down there during May, so even if last Thursday’s sell off show some follow through I will expect the SP to bounce from that area.
With this I mean that the index which has been trading in a sideways pattern could show more downside momentum in the short time and even fail to hold the next support levels, but if Friday’s sell off founds support at “the obvious” a sideways pattern, another test of the recent highs and then the resume of the sideways pattern and then a rally to the 1000.00 level will be the most probable scenario for the coming months and rest of the year.
For our short term trading scenario, if the markets are trading on the green, stay with the trend, look for strong support around the 878.00-877.00 on the SP, and be careful if the Nasdaq starts to trade below the 1432.00 area.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 896.00-898.00 on the SP, 1449.50-1452.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.10-500.90 on the Russell, if the markets will reverse part of last Friday’s loses these areas will have to get exceeded with good momentum and reach the next levels at 900.50-903.00 on the SP, 1456.00-1458.00 on the Nasdaq and 502.60-503.90 on the Russell. Trading above them will certainly give momentum to the move as the indexes reach the key levels at 906.50-908.00 on the SP, 1464.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.00-509.40 on the Russell.

There is good support at 890.50-888.50 on the SP, 1440.50-1438.00 on the Nasdaq and 595.50-493.70 on the Russell. Failing there may result in a test of the most recent intraday lows at 885.50-884.00 on the SP, 1433.00-1431.50 on the Nasdaq and 491.60-490.00 on the Russell. A double bottom there will give the markets the chance to bounce and keep the recent sideways pattern intact, in particular, those areas have been pivotal on the Nasdaq, so if the markets trade lower look for a test of 879.50-878.00 on the SP, 1425.00-1424.00 on the Nasdaq and 486.60-485.20 on the Russell. I assume the SP will bounce from these levels, at least the first time they get tested. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 911.00-912.50 1470.50-1472.00 512.40-513.50
Resistance 3 906.50-908.00 1464.00-1466.00 508.00-509.40
Resistance 2 900.50-903.00 1456.00-1458.00 502.60-503.90
Resistance 1 896.00-898.00 1449.50-1452.00 499.10-500.90
PIVOT 902.00 1474.00 502.10
Support 1 890.50-888.50 1440.50-1438.00 595.50-493.70
Support 2 885.50-884.00 1433.00-1431.50 491.60-490.00
Support 3 879.50-878.00 1425.00-1424.00 486.60-485.20
Support 4 875.00-873.50 1417.25-1416.00 482.70-481.10

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1034.50 1640.75 596.7
990.44 1578.73 565.0
963.44 1540.73 545.6
946.75 1517.25 533.6
936.44 1502.73 526.2
919.75 1479.25 514.2
909.44 1464.73 506.8
906.25 1460.25 504.5
903.06 1455.77 502.2
892.75 1441.25 494.8
876.06 1417.77 482.8
865.75 1403.25 475.4
849.06 1379.77 463.4
822.06 1341.77 444.0
778.00 1279.75 412.4

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 906.50 1462.25 505.80
AS DAILY LOW 879.50 1424.25 486.40

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 7, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 07-July-2009

U.S. service industries, ISM increase to 47, higher than forecasted and the best level in nine months, but markets stood under pressure during all the session but bounce into the end of the day.

ECONOMIC DATA
None

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets traded with losses during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 885.00, pulled back to 883.75 and bounced to 890.00, then, the index pulled back a couple of points and the rebound reached 891.00. Leaded by the weakness in the Nasdaq the SP pulled back to 887.25 and broke down strongly testing the Globex lows 882.00. After holding, the index bounced to 888.00, pulled back to 885.50, held and tested the 888.00 area once more. After another attempt to push lower that reached 885.00, the SP slowly made its way up to 891.25. The double top gave way to another setback but the move did not gain the downside momentum and the SP held many attempts to trade below 888.00 giving way to another bounce. The SP reached 891.75, and backed off to 887.25. Once more the index held and shorts started to cover pushing the markets up, the SP traded at a new marginal high above the Globex high and with short covering managed to press higher reaching 896.25 into the close. For the day, the SP added2.25 points and settled at 895.50, the Nasdaq lost 4.25 points closing the day at 1441.00 and the Russell ended lower by 6.30 points at 493.60. The Dow managed to close on the green, up 44 points at 8324.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Thursday, the index posted a strong sell off and a close near the daily lows. The fact that the strong move happened with low volumes and on the last trading session before the holiday extended weekend may not give to it the validity as it would have occurred during a normal week. That does not means that “it does not shows on the charts” but many time happens that pre holiday moves get reversed during the next trading session. However, the move was very strong and could give way to one or two sessions where it gets consolidated and then move downward to a new low, or just continued to push lower finally showing some follow through. During the past sessions, before the June unemployment numbers which get released last Thursday gave way to the sell off, I wrote that this is a lagging indicator and I would be expecting that even if it gives way to a strong sell off, as it happened, the markets may be able to rebound, so, if the markets will act in this form, and rally during the week, the SP will have to hold above the 877.00 area, a few lows were seen down there during May, so even if last Thursday’s sell off show some follow through I will expect the SP to bounce from that area.”

Markets traded under pressure for most of the session, however, support held, the early lows were not broken and the indexes bounced into the close. I mentioned that after last Thursday sell off, a strong reversal or some bearish consolidation could happen, the ranges were narrow and the indexes traded once more with very low volumes. It seems that the indexes may be able to continue with this pullback, yesterday’s lows, do not seem to have scared too much the long traders, and it will very unusual to place a short term low with such light volumes. It is not that I waiting for a capitulation, but for a low to be in place more volume has to be seen. Also the range on the SP was only 14.25 points and it has to get extended.
The odds favor a trend session, which means that once the daily highs or lows are posted, the markets take a direction showing limited pullbacks or bounces.
I mentioned that last Thursday’s sell off, even with some intraday follow through could have been a pre holiday move that gets reversed the next day, it did not happen yesterday; maybe because the early move was negative and the trading volumes did not produce the momentum for a strong rebound.
So under this uncertainty, and keeping in mind that we could have a trend session, let’s wait for the next 40 minutes to see if lower prices get reversed, in particular from the 886.25-885.00 area, but also wait for a failure around the 898.00 area, if the market is weak that level may hold.
Keep in mind that the Dow showed strong support around the 8200, and that important level will have to get violated if the direction is to the downside, the same is true at 1432.00 on the NQ. Trading below them could indicate a wide range downward session.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 896.00-898.00 on the SP, 1449.50-1452.00 on the Nasdaq and 494.10-495.00 on the Russell, if the markets are weak those areas may not get exceeded by much, but if buyers appear, look for a bit more of upside that pushes the indexes up to 900.50-903.00 on the SP, 1448.00-1449.50 on the Nasdaq and 496.00-497.20 on the Russell. Trading above them will place short under extreme pressure and a test of the key levels at 905.50-908.00 on the SP, 1454.00-1455.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.20-500.80 on the Russell may be seen before the session is over.

There is support just below yesterday’s settlements at 894.00-892.00 on the SP, 1436.00-1435.00 on the Nasdaq and 491.20-490.00 on the Russell. If those fail, look for some buying around 890.00-888.75 on the SP, 1428.50-1427.50 on the Nasdaq and 486.40-486.10 on the Russell. If those fail, the last important areas to defend by the bulls are at 886.25-885.00 on the SP, 1415.50-1413.00 on the Nasdaq and 482.40-481.50. Breaking below them could indicate a wide range down session, but the first time the SP test the 877.00 it may hold. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 910.75-912.50 1458.50-1460.00 504.90-506.40
Resistance 3 905.50-908.00 1454.00-1455.00 499.20-500.80
Resistance 2 900.50-903.00 1448.00-1449.50 496.00-497.20
Resistance 1 897.00-898.00 1443.00-1445.00 494.10-495.00
PIVOT 891.25 1436.00 491.80
Support 1 894.00-892.00 1436.00-1435.00 491.20-490.00
Support 2 890.00-888.75 1428.50-1427.50 486.40-486.10
Support 3 886.25-885.00 1415.50-1413.00 482.40-481.50
Support 4 877.00-875.25 1405.00-1404.00 478.70-476.80

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
956.81 1537.75 553.1
933.56 1501.85 531.7
919.31 1479.85 518.6
910.50 1466.25 510.5
905.06 1457.85 505.5
896.25 1444.25 497.4
890.81 1435.85 492.4
889.13 1433.25 490.9
887.44 1430.65 489.3
882.00 1422.25 484.3
873.19 1408.65 476.2
867.75 1400.25 471.2
858.94 1386.65 463.1
844.69 1364.65 450.0
821.44 1328.75 428.6

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 903.00 1442.25 495.50
AS DAILY LOW 888.75 1420.50 482.40

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 8, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-July-2009

Markets sell off on earnings and economy recovery concerns.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
3:00 PM Consumer Credit

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading at 898.00 during the Globex session, markets started the day under light pressure. The E-mini SP started the day at 892.25 and after testing 893.00 it started to trade down. The first move pushed the index down to 889.25 from where it bounced back up to 892.50 but with the Nasdaq pressing strongly lower, the index sold off and reached 886.75, just below my 888.00 intraday support level. Without showing any rebound the SP made a new low at 883.25. A feeble bounce to 885.50 failed to gain momentum and the index made a new low at 882.25. Finally some short covering was seen and the SP reached the key support area and now resistance at 888.00. After failing there the markets moved once more to the downside, they traded sideways and finally broke to new lows, the index reached 878.00, as expected, and the first test hold, the SP bounced to 881.00 from where it pushed lower posting a new daily low at 875.25 bouncing a bit into the close. For the day, the SP lost 16.25 points and settled at 879.25, the Nasdaq lost 33.00 points and finished the session at 1408.00 and the Russell ended lower by 9.30 at 484.30. The Dow lost 161 points closing the day at

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Markets traded under pressure for most of the session, however, support held, the early lows were not broken and the indexes bounced into the close. I mentioned that after last Thursday sell off, a strong reversal or some bearish consolidation could happen, the ranges were narrow and the indexes traded once more with very low volumes. It seems that the indexes may be able to continue with this pullback, yesterday’s lows, do not seem to have scared too much the long traders, and it will very unusual to place a short term low with such light volumes. It is not that I waiting for a capitulation, but for a low to be in place more volume has to be seen. The odds favor a trend session, which means that once the daily highs or lows are posted, the markets take a direction showing limited pullbacks or bounces. So under this uncertainty, and keeping in mind that we could have a trend session, let’s wait for the next 40 minutes to see if lower prices get reversed, in particular from the 886.25-885.00 area, but also wait for a failure around the 898.00 area, if the market is weak that level may hold. Keep in mind that the Dow showed strong support around the 8200, and that important level will have to get violated if the direction is to the downside, the same is true at 1432.00 on the NQ. Trading below them could indicate a wide range downward session.”

Markets acted exactly as expected, the Globex high on the SP was at 898.25 and the rebound was rejected before the opening, my downside objective, mentioned a few days ago was reached in a down trend session. The markets broke the June lows and reached those posted on May.
The SP and Dow have formed a head and shoulders pattern and this indicates a down swing to test the 7800 area on the Dow and 838.00 on the SP. Despite the fact that we could see some rebound during today’s trading session, it may be only a one day move just to give some extra opportunity to the sellers to jump in.
Take into account that my 878.00-877.00 area held into the close, and the close on the SP500 index was practically at the low, so the may have given short term exhaustion to the recent sell off. The strength of the trend is obvious; the last rally struggled, failed at the price level where the previous setback started, at 925.00, has a six days extension and was strongly reversed in a few sessions, so there is not a reason why the markets wont push lower in the near term.
For today’s trading session, we have the Crude Inventories data after the opening, the commodities have retreated following the stock markets indexes, so a bounce on the oil may benefit the SP. An early pullback to yesterday’s lows, if it posts a double bottom, may give way to a rebound, but it will be very difficult for the markets to gain upside momentum, and any rally may turn to be a selling opportunity. Take into account that it will be unusual to see another trend session.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 896.00-898.00 on the SP, 1412.00-1414.50 on the Nasdaq and 485.60-486.90on the Russell, those may get exceeded, in particular if the early move push markets down to yesterday’s lows, if that happens, the indexes may make it to 886.75-888.50 on the SP, 1418.00-1420.50 on the Nasdaq and 489.90-492.10 on the Russell. Many traders may be waiting to short at those levels, but if the short covering continues look for a test of yesterday’s early highs at 892.00-893.25 on the SP, 1425.00-1427.00 on the Nasdaq and 495.10-496.50 on the Russell.

There is support at yesterday’s lows at 877.00-875.00 on the SP, 1402.00-1399.50 on the Nasdaq and 482.00-480.40 on the Russell. Failing there may add some downside momentum pushing the markets down to 872.50-870.00 on the SP, 1394.50-1392.00 on the Nasdaq and 474.20-472.60 on the Russell. Markets may bounce from those levels ones they get tested the first time, but if those do not hold, especially during the last hour of the session look for the indexes to visit 866.00-865.00 on the SP, 1383.00-1381.00 on the NQ and 474.20-472.60 on the Russell before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 898.00-899.50 1433.00-1436.00 499.60-501.20
Resistance 3 892.00-893.25 1425.00-1427.00 495.10-496.50
Resistance 2 886.75-888.50 1418.00-1420.50 489.90-492.10
Resistance 1 881.50-883.50 1412.00-1414.50 485.60-486.90
PIVOT 884.25 1418.50 487.00
Support 1 877.00-875.00 1402.00-1399.50 482.00-480.40
Support 2 872.50-870.00 1394.50-1392.00 478.60-476.80
Support 3 866.00-865.00 1383.00-1381.00 474.20-472.60
Support 4 861.25-860.00 1375.00-1373.00 467.10-466.70

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
996.00 1640.13 555.9
958.46 1565.87 532.7
935.46 1520.37 518.5
921.25 1492.25 509.7
912.46 1474.87 504.3
898.25 1446.75 495.5
889.46 1429.37 490.1
886.75 1424.00 488.4
884.04 1418.63 486.7
875.25 1401.25 481.3
861.04 1373.13 472.5
852.25 1355.75 467.1
838.04 1327.63 458.3
815.04 1282.13 444.1
777.50 1207.88 421.0

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 888.75 1427.00 489.90
AS DAILY LOW 865.75 1381.00 475.70

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 9, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-July-2009

Markets fall following lower oil prices and earnings concerns but recovered into the end of the session closing mixed for the day.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
While trading quietly during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 881.25 and after trying to move up it backed off posting a small double bottom at 878.50. From there, the index tested the 882.50 Globex high but failed to trade above it. Another pullback to 878.50 gave way to a bounce that reached 883.25, another pullback to 880.50 resulted in a bounce that posted a new marginal high at 883.50, but once more the move failed and the index tested the 878.00 area, finally it broke lower and reached 870.50, a feeble bounce failed at 873.25 and moved down to 869.50. The index bounced a few points but the short traders continue to press down and the SP reached 866.25, just above my support levels. Leaded by the Nasdaq the SP showed some short covering that pushed the index up to 874.00 where sellers stepped back in pushing the markets back down to a new low at 865.25. The index held and once more tried to bounce. For the day the SP lost 5.50 points and settled at 873.75, the Nasdaq lost 1.00 closing at 1407.00 and the Russell lost 7.80 points finishing the session at 476.50. The Dow reversed early losses closing in the green at 8178.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The SP and Dow have formed a head and shoulders pattern and this indicates a down swing to test the 7800 area on the Dow and 838.00 on the SP. Despite the fact that we could see some rebound during today’s trading session, it may be only a one day move just to give some extra opportunity to the sellers to jump in. Take into account that my 878.00-877.00 area held into the close, and the close on the SP500 index was practically at the low, so the may have given short term exhaustion to the recent sell off. The strength of the trend is obvious; the last rally struggled, failed at the price level where the previous setback started, at 925.00, has a six days extension and was strongly reversed in a few sessions, so there is not a reason why the markets wont push lower in the near term. For today’s trading session, we have the Crude Inventories data after the opening, the commodities have retreated following the stock markets indexes, so a bounce on the oil may benefit the SP. An early pullback to yesterday’s lows, if it posts a double bottom, may give way to a rebound, but it will be very difficult for the markets to gain upside momentum, and any rally may turn to be a selling opportunity.”

We came into yesterday’s trading session looking for a rebound or narrow range consolidation, but we also looked for any bounce to turn into a selling opportunity.
Yesterday’s action and new lows and the failure of the markets to bounce, despite the mixed close, indicates the strength of the current downside trend, the markets may see lower prices in the coming days. However, now that the SP reached the end of April low, posting a double bottom at the last negative session of that month, there is a chance that the sideways pattern will continue, so if the direction is to the downside, any rally must not exceed more than three trading sessions and the price level should stay below the 895.00 area. If the SP only consolidates for one day and it fails to push above the 885.00 price level, then the weakness is greater than I thought.
It will be abnormal not to see lower prices, for a low to be in place, much greater volumes have to be seen on a kind of capitulation move.
Last week I mentioned that the VIX posted its lowest level since last year, and I wrote that there was a lot of complacency on the markets at the current price levels, the economic data indicates that the crises is still present, and this can be seen with the reversal on the commodities which indicate lower economic activity, not to mention the housing sectors where home prices continue to push lower.
So, the bear market rally that lasted 90 days from the March lows is over, and if the SP wont hold around the 838.00 area, then it will probably push lower posting a higher low around the 780.00 level, and then, enter a long term sideways patter.
For today’s trading session, early strength may be seen as a selling opportunity all the time that the SP is trading below 883.00-884.00, and weakness may be present and gain down side momentum all the time that the NQ starts to trade back below 1398.00, markets have to consolidate a bit the last move, so look for their reaction at our support and resistance areas.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is good resistance at 877.00-878.50 on the SP, 1411.00-1413.00 on the Nasdaq and 478.00-479.40 on the Russell, those may get exceeded to take the markets out of this extreme weakness, if that happens, the indexes may push up to 883.00-884.00 on the SP, 1417.50-1419.50 on the Nasdaq and 481.60-482.20 on the Russell. Those seems to be great areas to get short, but if the short covering continues and the markets look strong look for the 890.00-892.00 areas on the SP, 1428.00-1430.00 on the Nasdaq and 485.20-485.80 on the Russell to get reached before the day is over.

There is support at 872.00-870.00 on the SP, 1402.00-1400.00 on the Nasdaq and 475.00-473.60on the Russell. Those area very important levels for the SP and Nasdaq, trading below them will place the indexes at the last important support levels before they spill down, those area at 868.00-867.00 on the SP, 1395.00-1394.00 on the Nasdaq and 471.10-469.20 on the Russell. Once those areas fail only a marginal new low below yesterday’s lows at 864.50-863.00 on the SP, 1388.00-1386.50 on the Nasdaq and 466.30-465.60 on the Russell, if they hold, may result in a good short covering rally. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 898.00-899.50 1435.00-1436.00 490.70-492.40
Resistance 3 890.00-892.00 1428.00-1430.00 485.20-485.80
Resistance 2 883.00-884.00 1417.50-1419.50 481.60-482.20
Resistance 1 877.00-878.50 1411.00-1413.00 478.00-479.40
PIVOT 874.25 1405.00 477.90
Support 1 872.00-870.00 1402.00-1400.00 475.00-473.60
Support 2 868.00-867.00 1395.00-1394.00 471.10-469.20
Support 3 864.50-863.00 1388.00-1386.50 466.30-465.60
Support 4 860.00-858.50 1382.00-1380.00 461.90-460.60

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
961.06 1513.25 554.6
931.28 1475.71 528.5
913.03 1452.71 512.5
901.75 1438.50 502.6
894.78 1429.71 496.5
883.50 1415.50 486.6
876.53 1406.71 480.5
874.38 1404.00 478.6
872.22 1401.29 476.7
865.25 1392.50 470.6
853.97 1378.29 460.7
847.00 1369.50 454.6
835.72 1355.29 444.7
817.47 1332.29 428.7
787.69 1294.75 402.6

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 878.50 1411.25 481.60
AS DAILY LOW 860.25 1388.00 465.60

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 22, 2009

Daily trading advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 22-July-2009

Bernanke said FED policy remains focused in economic recovery. CIT: bankruptcy stills a possibility.

ECONOMIC DATA
10:35 AM Crude Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After reaching 956.25 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 953.00 and pushed lower to 948.00 from where a rebound to 952.00 turned to be a selling opportunity. As traders took some profits in front of Bernanke’s testimony, the SP pressed lower to 945.00, a good bounce from that area reached 951.75 where sellers stepped back in and slowly pushed the markets down. The SP tested the 941.50 level, bounced to 944.00 and pushed lower to 939.50. With not too much momentum the index started a slow recovery move, reached 945.25, pulled a couple of points and continued higher reaching 948.00, after a few attempts to continued higher, the index pushed up to 950.00 and then to 953.50 into the close. For the day, the SP added 4.50 points and settled at 953.50, the Nasdaq closed higher by 14.25 points at 1554.75 and the Russell finished almost unchanged at 524.70. The Dow added 67 points finishing the session at 8915.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Monday I wrote: “The markets advanced during all the week and the SP is testing the June highs; despite that the move could be almost exhausted, it seems that the rally may continue, I mentioned during the week that we could see a test of the 960.00 area on the SP and 9000 on the Dow, I also have to pint that the NQ has the potential to reach the 1575.00 area. So, from where a correction will start? It could start on a failure to break above the 943.00 area on the SP, after a false break, when it reach the 960.00-963.00 level or only later once the 1000.00 level gets tested, with this strength that took all the shorts by surprise, it seems that there is more room to move up. But there is a short term chance that the indexes may have done the entire move, and that a correction will start this week, maybe next Tuesday, after another probable consolidation during the Monday’s session. It will take too much selling to have a wide range downside session on Monday, and obviously, if the correction starts and does not last more than three trading sessions it will turn to be a buying opportunity. Remember that a second degree trend, last between 8-10 sessions, so if we have a consolidation during Monday’s session and Tuesday is not a down day, and then the move will continue and complete another positive week. The key for the SP to hold this strong position is the 924.00 support area, a successful test of that level will surely bring new money into the markets.”

Another close at the highs and another failed profit taking attempt; the strength of the rally has approached the levels that I mentioned on Monday’s newsletter and once more has the chance to show some pullback.
I have mentioned in many occasions that one of the ways in which a move exhaust is by closing on the daily highs, but the extension of the recent rally that finally exceeded the 943.00 area on the SP needs more than a negative session in order top close a short term high, a three days correction and a reversal to a new high will certainly indicated a test of the 1000.00 area on the SP.
It is obvious that a correction will happen, a test of the last lows around the 865.00 area may be in the cards during the next coming weeks, but fighting the current trend does not seems to be the best idea, and probably the index will have to break below the 900.00 area to see bulls getting nervous.
For today’s trading session, yesterday’s Globex high, 956.50 will have to get exceeded or we could see some consolidation, a sideways pattern and a relatively narrow range, so unless the SP make early lows around 945.00 and get reversed to the upside indicating an uptrend session, trade both sides of the market.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 955.00-956.50 on the SP, 1556.50-1558.00 on the Nasdaq and 526.10-528.60 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail there may give way to a good profit taking move, but if those areas get exceeded, look for a test of 958.50-960.00 on the SP, 1562.00-1563.25 on the Nasdaq and531.10-532.40 on the Russell. If the markets continue to be strong, just the stops that get elected up there, may give way to a test of the next levels at 962.50-963.25 on the SP, 1567.50-1568.50 on the Nasdaq and 536.70-537.50 on the Russell.

Initial support is at 951.50-950.50 on the SP, 1551.00-1549.00 on the Nasdaq and 522.30-520.80 on the Russell. Trading below them will push the indexes down to 948.00-946.50 on the SP, 1546.50-1545.00 on the NQ and 517.20-516.00 on the Russell. If those hold during the first hour of the session, we could see a trend session, but if they fail look for the index to continue lower testing 944.00-943.25 on the SP, 1541.00-1539.00 on the Nasdaq and 511.60-509.80 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens if those hold, and the SP could bounce back to a neutral close, but trading lower could indicate some profit taking for the rest of the week. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 966.50-968.00 1572.50-1575.00 543.80-544.60
Resistance 3 962.50-963.25 1567.50-1568.50 536.70-537.50
Resistance 2 958.50-960.00 1562.00-1563.25 531.10-532.40
Resistance 1 955.00-956.50 1556.50-1558.00 526.10-528.60
PIVOT 949.75 1545.75 523.60
Support 1 951.50-950.50 1551.00-1549.00 522.30-520.80
Support 2 948.00-946.50 1546.50-1545.00 517.20-516.00
Support 3 944.00-943.25 1541.00-1539.00 511.60-509.80
Support 4 938.50-936.00 1533.00-1532.00 505.30-503.60

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1027.44 1668.69 589.0
1000.10 1625.03 566.3
983.35 1598.28 552.4
973.00 1581.75 543.8
966.60 1571.53 538.5
956.25 1555.00 529.9
949.85 1544.78 524.6
947.88 1541.63 523.0
945.90 1538.47 521.3
939.50 1528.25 516.0
929.15 1511.72 507.4
922.75 1501.50 502.1
912.40 1484.97 493.5
895.65 1458.22 479.6
868.31 1414.56 456.9

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 963.25 1567.00 534.30
AS DAILY LOW 946.50 1541.00 520.40

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1 · Jul 23, 2009

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-July-2009

Morgan Stanley wider than expected loss, Wells Fargo bad mortgage loans increased, stocks struggle for direction. Nasdaq extend its rally for the 11th consecutive session but markets closed mixed for the day.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets fluctuated during the Globex session giving way to a lower opening. The E-mini SP started the day at 945.00 and after testing 944.50, my support area; it bounced to 949.25 and then reached 950.25. As the early short covering continued, the SP reached 952.50. As the Nasdaq continued to lead the uptrend move, the SP traded at 954.50. Unable to trade higher and reach the Globex highs, the SP pulled back all the way down to 947.75 and while keeping the intraday sideways pattern it bounced to 953.00. The index pulled back to 951.00, tested the 953.00 area and backed off to 949.25. Unable to break lower and while keeping a slightly bullish bias, the SP rallied to 955.75, just above the Globex highs, later it broke up and reached 956.75 where the move topped. The index pulled back to 951.50, bounced to 954.25 and pulled back once more, this time to 948.25 from where it traded in a sideways pattern into the end of the day. For the session the SP lost 4.00 points and settled at 949.50, the Nasdaq added 2.50 points closing the session at 1556.50 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 524.70. The Dow lost 34 points closing the session at 8881.

.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Another close at the highs and another failed profit taking attempt; the strength of the rally has approached the levels that I mentioned on Monday’s newsletter and once more has the chance to show some pullback. I have mentioned in many occasions that one of the ways in which a move exhaust is by closing on the daily highs, but the extension of the recent rally that finally exceeded the 943.00 area on the SP needs more than a negative session in order top close a short term high, a three days correction and a reversal to a new high will certainly indicated a test of the 1000.00 area on the SP. It is obvious that a correction will happen, a test of the last lows around the 865.00 area may be in the cards during the next coming weeks, but fighting the current trend does not seems to be the best idea, and probably the index will have to break below the 900.00 area to see bulls getting nervous. For today’s trading session, yesterday’s Globex high, 956.50 will have to get exceeded or we could see some consolidation, a sideways pattern and a relatively narrow range, so unless the SP make early lows around 945.00 and get reversed to the upside indicating an uptrend session, trade both sides of the market.”

So markets traded in a sideways pattern, the SP held the 956.50 and the Nasdaq practically reached my 1575.00 upside objective for that market.
The strength of the rally, the fact that it has not showed more than a first degree pullback and the way the markets have been able to recover every sell off attempt, make me think that this rally have more to go. However, the SP has tested the June highs and a short term top may have been posted. By short term I mean, that every pullback that does not exceed more than three trading sessions may be considered a buying opportunity as the SP may be able to trade above the 963.00 areas and reach, in the mid term, levels above the 1000.00.
This is not an excess of bullishness, is the chart which is indicating higher prices that obviously won’t get reached in a few days, the index, even with the higher lows and higher highs on the daily chart has been struggling during the last few days to move strongly higher, so there is the possibility of a wide range downside session.
But, lets not predict what the index will do, meanwhile the trend is up and the pullbacks are not more than consolidations of the huge move that keep showing rotation and accumulation for a further advance. For today’s trading session, selling the bounces all the time that the SP does not exceed the 957.00 area may result, but there is not evidence of trending down, so the first decent pullback, particularly, if it holds the 943.00-942.00 area may turn to be another buying opportunity.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is initial resistance at 952.00-953.00 on the SP, 1561.00-1563.00 on the Nasdaq and 525.70-527.20 on the Russell, an early bounce that fail there may give way to a good pullback, but if those areas get exceeded, look for a test of yesterday’s highs at 956.25-957.00 on the SP, 1570.00-1571.50 on the Nasdaq and 530.30-530.80 on the Russell. A double top up there, may give way to an expected profit taking move, but if the markets are strong look for the indexes to continue higher pushing the SP up to 963.00-964.00.

Initial support is at 947.50-946.00 on the SP, 1551.00-1549.00 on the Nasdaq and 523.10-521.70 on the Russell. Those areas very important during yesterday’s session, holding there will result at least in another test of yesterday’s highs, but if the markets fail to bounce from those areas, look for a test of 943.00-942.00 on the SP, 1543.50-1541.00 on the Nasdaq and 519.20-518.60 on the Russell. If those fail to hold, then we could have a wide range downside session if the markets do not react from 939.75-939.00 on the SP, 1536.00-1534.00 on the Nasdaq and 514.40-513.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 969.50-970.00 1584.00-1586.00 541.40-543.10
Resistance 3 963.00-964.00 1577.00-1578.00 536.00-536.70
Resistance 2 956.25-957.00 1570.00-1571.50 530.30-530.80
Resistance 1 952.00-953.00 1561.00-1563.00 525.70-527.20
PIVOT 950.00 1557.50 524.90
Support 1 947.50-946.00 1551.00-1549.00 523.10-521.70
Support 2 943.00-942.00 1543.50-1541.00 519.20-518.60
Support 3 939.75-939.00 1536.00-1534.00 514.40-513.80
Support 4 936.50-935.00 1532.00-1531.00 509.90-508.10

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1013.06 1683.88 577.7
991.44 1640.63 559.6
978.19 1614.13 548.5
970.00 1597.75 541.6
964.94 1587.63 537.4
956.75 1571.25 530.5
951.69 1561.13 526.3
950.13 1558.00 525.0
948.56 1554.87 523.6
943.50 1544.75 519.4
935.31 1528.37 512.5
930.25 1518.25 508.3
922.06 1501.87 501.4
908.81 1475.37 490.3
887.19 1432.13 472.2

DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 953.00 1577.00 530.30
AS DAILY LOW 939.75 1550.50 519.20

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

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