Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

European Shares Decline On The Back Of Plunging Commodity Prices

Today, European shares are little changed as investors assess the likely timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase. A surge in technology shares has helped offset the effects of sliding energy producers.
In early trading Monday, European shares slid from a three-week high as commodities tumbled and investor anxiety returned after last week’s late rally.
A gauge of miners posted the biggest decline out of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 50 Index as base metals slipped. Iron ore tumbled on rising Chinese stockpiles and copper slid to a three-month low. Energy companies also dropped as crude oil sank for a fourth day to below $48 a barrel, after Iran said it won’t consider freezing output until its production is back at pre-sanctions levels.
Bayer AG lost 3.1 percent after announcing an unsolicited $62 billion all-cash offer to acquire Monsanto Co, contributing to the Index decline.
However, the Stoxx Europe 50 Index soon reversed the drop, as gains in technology companies outweighed sliding miners and energy producers. Apple Inc. suppliers AMS AG and Dialog Semiconductor Plc jumped at least 5.2 percent, leading a gauge of technology stocks to the biggest gain on the Stoxx Europe 50 Index, after Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reported that the iPhone maker has asked suppliers to prepare production for a new version of its smartphones.
Previously, Stoxx 50 climbed the most in a month on Friday as investors seemed to shrug off concerns that a Federal Reserve move in June will derail the U.S. economic recovery. Still, the rate outlook remains in focus and investors will look to data this week and comments today from regional Fed chiefs for St. Louis, San Francisco and Philadelphia for indications on the trajectory of borrowing costs.

Fig. STOXX50 Technical Chart
The STOXX 50 Index is currently trading at 2942.60, having moved in a very narrow range for about two weeks. RSI has headed down to 44.16, combined with the red sar arrow, indicates that a bearish trend is forming. The index is expected to test the support level at 2990.30.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2991.70 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2990.30 valid until May 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 24, 2016
Further to comments from FOMC officials yesterday, the US dollar currently is extending its uptrend after moving languidly over the last two trading sessions. At the Official Monetary and Financial Institution Forum in Beijing, James Bullard, President of St. Louis Fed stated that financial markets may turn unstable if the interest rate is kept too low for too long. The market is now building in a strong expectation that a rate hike is firmly on the table at the FED meeting next month.
Early this morning, the Japanese Yen surged higher as Finance Minister Taro Aso stated that there would be no further measures applied to devalue the yen currently. In addition, weak stocks and falling commodities resulting from the FED’s hawkish comments also contributed to provide the safe-haven yen an added lift.
Data released by the Markit Institution on May 23 reported that economic activity in the euro area continues to remain subdued. The flash PMI for May posted a 16-month low of 52.9, compared with the reading of 53.0 in the preceding month. In particular, the PMI for the services sector stayed unchanged at 53.1, while declining 2 points to 51.5 in manufacturing sector.
In today’s trading session, oil prices continue skidding as a firmer dollar continues to weigh on the markets. Brent, was down to $48.60/barrel, 0.5% lower than the previous close. Gold, also witnessed a fall of 0.3% from the last settlement and is trading at $1245.17/oz.

Technicals

EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
Falling from a nine-month high of 1.16146, EURUSD is currently stuck in the range between the level 0 and 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement. The signal trend indicator has signaled a short position since May 13, via a red arrow above the price chart. The pair is expected to move sideways for a while before pulling back. The level 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement is currently acting as a solid resistance for the price.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.11875 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11719 valid until May 24, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
The Stochastics chart shows that the pair GBPJPY has been in oversold territory for some time now, and is bouncing back as the %K line (blue line) has already crossed the %D line (red line). Sterling is on its way to strengthening against the yen, leading the pair to climb up from the support of 157.980 formed yesterday. However, the red arrow hanging over the price chart hints that the price may drop soon after this consolidation.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 159.582 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 158.724 valid until May 24, 2016

USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
After testing the support of 1.27666 on May 12, USDCAD has been surging higher, thanks to a strengthening greenback. ADX (14) is at 42.1932, indicating that the uptrend is holding firm. The price is supposed to continue edging up, supported by the two moving averages below.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.32000 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.31543 valid until May 24, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
GOLD is extending its recent down-move, and currently trades at 1245.77. RSI (14) keeps moving above the 30 threshold but has never fallen too low beyond this bar. This implies that the bear is overwhelming but not strong enough to push the price down drastically. The price is likely to test the support at 1238.17, the lowest level in about one month once it breaks through the support at 1243.60. A short position has been encouraged by the signal trend indicator since last Wednesday.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1243.69 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1240.33 valid until May 24, 2016

COPPER

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart
COPPER is currently witnessing a consolidation after a powerful downtrend which has resulted in 157-pip fall. RSI (14) has ticked up to the average but is likely to fall back soon. The price may continue the flat trend for a while, and then head down. However, as we can see, the support at 2.0390 has restrained the metal from losing heat. A reversal is expected once the price rises up to around 2.0645.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.0887 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0650 valid until May 24, 2016

SP500

Fig. SP500 H4 Technical Chart
SP500 is fluctuating un-decidedly in a wide range, after hitting the support of 2024.34 on May 19. RSI (14) stands at 48.0298, suggesting no clear direction in the price movement. However, the red arrow has formed above the price chart since May 13, signaling a short position. The index is anticipated to go down soon, to cover the wide gap created last week.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2054.48 valid until May 24, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2045.97 valid until May 24, 2016

 

[katycat]

AUD/USD Lower As RBA’s Governor Indicates More Rate Cuts

The Australian dollar is back below $0.72000 after the market observed the reaffirmation by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens to the inflation target of 2-3% as confirmation that the RBA will again lower rates in order to drive inflation higher.
Even though Stevens emphasized that the RBA was implementing “the best monetary policy framework we’ve ever had” and “medium term inflation targeting is not rigid and does not demand knee jerk reaction from our part”, traders are acting as though the door to another cut is still wide open. Prior to the comments from the RBA Governor, a 49.7% chance of an August cut was priced in, while markets are now pricing in a 51.6% chance.
In addition, the commodity currency has come under further pressure as poor data from Australia’s largest trading partner, China, raised concerns about the level of demand for Australia’s key commodity exports such as Iron ore, which dropped 6.7% to a three-month low on Tuesday. Other base and precious metals have also weakened with copper, gold and silver all retreating. Alongwith Chinese demand concerns, these dollar-denominated metals have been weighed down by a rallying US dollar.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has pared some of its recent losses today, as investors worried about the likelihood of a US interest rate increase in coming weeks.
A string of comments in recent weeks by Federal Reserve officials and minutes of the last Fed meeting have put a possible rate hike firmly on the table for June or July, reviving the dollar but cooling appetite for riskier assets.
The market seems to be taking a cautious stance ahead of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday, a day on which investors will also see the second estimate of US first-quarter growth. Markets also await comments from other Fed officials this week, as well as data on new home sales, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.
The dollar index, which tracks the US unit against a basket of six major counterparts, was up at 95.32, still within sight of Thursday’s peak of 95.520, its highest level since March 29.

Fig. AUDUSD D1 Technical Chart
Today, the pair plunged heavily, to as low as 0.71770 after 3-days of moving sideways. The red arrow and SAR dots above price line, along with RSI of 30.44 near the oversold zone, strongly confirm the selling power. AUD/USD is forecast to retain its bearish movement toward the support level at 0.71038.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.72447 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.71017 valid until May 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 25, 2016
On Wednesday, oil futures got closer to $50 per barrel, with the US crude prices reaching the highest level in more than 7 months, after a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude inventories was reported last week. US crude futures hit $49.24 per barrel, up 62 cents compared with their last settlement, while Brent futures inched up 55 cents to as high as $49.16 per barrel.
The oil market was also supported by the surge in US equities and strong US home sales, which helped reinforce expectations that the Fed could tighten its benchmark rate in June.
The US Commerce Department released new home sales data on Tuesday, with the number of new single-family homes sold during April reaching 619,000, the highest level in about 8 years, beating market expectations of 521,000. This provides more clear evidence of a pick-up in economic growth, which could allow the Fed to implement a rate hike sooner rather than later this year.
In Europe, Swiss exports were down in April in comparison with the same time last year, but still brought in more money as pharmaceutical companies increased their shipments more than 20%, which helped offset the drop in watch sales. Watch exports witnessed the 10th straight month of declines with a 200 million francs loss in April as the sales in Hong Kong and China continued to slide.
European shares were up on Tuesday, hitting the highest point in nearly a month, as firmer financial stocks lifted the region’s equity market. The FTSEurofirst 300 gained 2.2%, extending early gains on the weakening Euro and stronger oil prices.

Technicals

USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
The greenback is on its way to weakening against the yen, after testing the resistance of 110.164. The Stochastics chart shows that the pair is pulling back, and is escaping overbought territory. The price is expected to break level 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement once again. A selling position in the short-term is suggested.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 110.520 valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 109.401 valid until May 25, 2016

EURGBP

Fig. EURGBP H4 Technical Chart
EURGBP is bouncing back from the three-and-half month low of 0.76076 formed yesterday. The signal trend indicator has encouraged a short position via a red arrow since May 13. Up to now, the pair has moved 2433 points, the largest gain from the beginning of this year. Hence, the price is likely to bounce back. The %K line (blue line) has already crossed over the %D line (red line) as shown on the stochastics chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 0.76737 valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 0.76042 valid until May 25, 2016

CADCHF

Fig. CADCHF H4 Technical Chart
CADCHF is currently moving sideways in a wide range, between the support and resistance of 0.75093 and 0.76110, respectively. ADX (14) has lowered to 30.8191 with a small distance between DI+ and DI-, indicating that the up-move is weakening. A selling position has been indicated by the SAR red arrow hanging over the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 0.75961 valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 0.75508 valid until May 25, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Falling sharply since May 18 with a loss of 4653 points up to now, GOLD is moving gingerly after testing the support of 1223.06. The stochastics chart shows that the commodity has dived into the oversold territory. The %K line (blue line) has already crossed above the %D line (red line), implying that a reversal into an uptrend may happen soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1237.89 valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 1214.25 valid until May 25, 2016

BRENT

Fig. BRENT H4 Technical Chart
The two moving averages have kept crossing each other and moving together for a long time now, giving no clear direction on the price movement. The price is currently fluctuating in the zone around level 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. It is expected to pull back for some consolidation before surging again. A green arrow has already appeared under the price chart, suggesting a long position.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 49.98 valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 49.25 valid until May 25, 2016

FTSE

Fig. FTSE H4 Technical Chart
A higher-than average of RSI (14) shows that the bull is overshadowing the index. ADX (14) points up to 42.9841, with DI+ far higher than DI-, indicating that the upward pressure may not fade soon. The signal trend indicator has encouraged a long position since yesterday via a green arrow under the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 6307.31valid until May 25, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 6197.03 valid until May 25, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USD/CAD Under Pressure Ahead Of BOC Statement

On Wednesday, the Loonie has been deriving support from the recovery in crude oil prices toward $50, as investors have anticipated a likely decrease in the U.S. crude inventories and ongoing supply outages elsewhere in the world.
All eyes are focussed on Bank of Canada’s May interest rate statement to be released later today at 10:00 am EDT. BOC is not expected to change its benchmark interest rate but it is anticipated to downplay expectations with mentions of weaker economic performance and the yet undetermined impact of the Alberta wild fires.
Since the last BOC meeting on April 13, Canada has posted a record trade deficit, weak manufacturing shipments and poor Retail Sales data. On the plus side, the latest inflation number beat expectations, with core CPI at 2.2%.
The Canadian economy is still forecast to post an impressive first quarter GDP even after the slowdown in March. The outlook for the second quarter is more uncertain as it depends heavily on U.S. growth and oil price stability, which are two factors outside the control of Canadian policy makers.
On the other hand, the dollar was pushed higher to hit a two-month peak against its basket of peer currencies on Wednesday, after data showed that U.S. new home sales rose far more than expected in April.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that new home sales rose by 16.6% to 619,000 units last month, compared to expectations of a 2.0% increase, the strongest monthly pace in more than eight years. These surprisingly strong numbers backed the view that the US economy may be strong enough for the Fed to raise interest rates as early as June, added to comments from various Fed officials explicitly highlighting a chance of a Fed rate hike in the near term.
The dollar has fallen back slightly though, as investors are keeping a low profile ahead of data and events in coming days, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s appearance at a panel at Harvard University on Friday, as well as a revised estimate of U.S. first-quarter growth released the same day.

Fig. USDCAD D1 Technical Chart
On the daily chart, USD/CAD has rallied in the past month, but the bullish trend has been temporarily paused after the price tested the resistance level at 1.31971. The pair is currently lower at 1.31068. ADX is 32.72, with DI+ staying above DI-, indicating that the buying power is still overwhelming. However, the distance between those two lines has decreased. Hence, the pair is expected to go down slightly then go up again to test the next resistance level at 1.32626
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1.32626 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 1.29689 valid until May 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 26, 2016
On Wednesday, Wall Street gained for the second session due to surging oil prices, and investors’ increasing expectations of an interest rate hike as soon as June or July. Combining the performance in Tuesday and Wednesday, the S&P 500 has been up 2%, witnessing the strongest two-day run since the beginning of March. In particular, the index inched 1.51% compared with the last settlement as oil prices were on track to hit $50 per barrel.
The dollar stayed defensive on Thursday as investors are awaiting for the speech of Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen, which is expected to give commentaries on another rate hike and the decisions on a planned sales tax hike in Japan. The dollar index inched down 0.1 percent to around 95.235, moving away from a two-month high of 95.661 formed in the previous session.
According to the US government figures, the crude oil inventories dropped 4.2 million barrels, beating market predictions of 1.7 million and supporting oil prices to go up. The commodity prices hit $50 per barrel in early Asian session today.
The Canadian dollar went up against the US dollar as oil prices gained and the bank of Canada statement showed less dovish signal than expected. In particular, the central bank decided to keep the interest rate at 0.5% on Wednesday, saying that the economy could shrink in the second quarter due to the recent wildfires in Alberta.
On Tuesday, the workers at Chinalto Mining Corp International’s copper mine Toromocho in Peru are planning a four-day strike to press the revise of the quarterly bonus policy, which is related to the company results. According to Alvaro Barrenechea, manager of corporate affairs for Toromocho, the workers did not receive bonus this quarter as the profit goals had not been met on copper slump.

Technicals

EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
Yesterday, EURUSD reached the lowest level of 1.11274 in over two months and now is on track to rise. The Stochastics charts shows that the %K line (blue line) is about to cross over the overbought point, indicating that the pair may pull back after some advances. The resistance of 1.12435 formed on Monday is expected to be retested. A short position in long-term is still suggested by the signal trend indicator.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.11799 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11337 valid until May 26, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) points up, hovering around the reading of 60, indicating that the bullish power is very strong. The pair GBPJPY is inching up after tracing a down-move for several hours, from a high of 162.474. The level 23.6% of Fibonacci seems to be a solid support of the price. A green arrow has appeared under the price chart on May 25, hinting a long position,
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 162.224 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 161.000 valid until May 26, 2016

USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
The buck is on way to weaken against the Loonie after the pair USDCAD hit the resistance of 1.31896 two days ago. The two moving average started to hang above the price chart, casting shadow on this pair. The downtrend is anticipated to stay firm as ADX (14) is heading up to 36.9011. Though the price has entered the oversold territory, the %K line (blue line) gives no signal to cross the %D line (red line) in short-term. USDCAD is expected to dim further.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.30360 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.29082 valid until May 26, 2016

COPPER

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart
ADX (14) is pointing up to the reading of 55.1441, with DI+ is far higher than DI-, indicating that the current uptrend is very powerful. The signal trend indicator has suggested a long position since yesterday via a green arrow under the price chart. The commodity may test the resistance of 2.1541. The current support is 2.0371.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1400 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0934 valid until May 26, 2016

DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
DAX has fallen into a consolidation after surging up sharply from the support of 9763.74 in the last two days. The Stochastics chart shows that the index has dived in the overbought territory for a period of time and the % K line (blue line) has already crossed the %D line (red line), implying that a reversal into a downtrend may happen soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 10239.98 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 10094.72 valid until May 26, 2016

SP500

Fig. SP500 H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) currently is hovering around the overbought level, indicating that the bull is very strong. The %K line (blue line) has already crossed over the %D line (red line), signaling that the index may pull back for some consolidation. A long position is suggested by the green arrow under the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2100.46 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2087.66 valid until May 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

AUD Dips But Recovers As Australian CAPEX Data Mixed

The Aussie witnessed a swift knee-jerk reaction initially, after data released in early Asian trading today reported that headline Australian CAPEX (private capital expenditure) figures came in much weaker than expectations. Q1 Australian CAPEX change was reported at -5.2% q/q vs -3.5% expected, and compared to a revised figure of +1.8% last quarter.
Later, the Aussie regained some ground after a mixed capital expenditure report included a slight upgrade to overall spending plans for the year ending June 2017. Investment intentions are better than analysts had expected, particularly in services, which seems encouraging to investors.
Nevertheless, the upside has been limited, as markets assess the latest domestic data to predict Reserve Bank of Australia’s future moves on monetary policy, especially after RBA Governor Stevens’ dovish comments earlier this week. Rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve could hike rates at any of the next few meetings are also holding the AUD back from further gains.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index has softened, falling 0.27 percent to 95.15 so far early in the US session, and gold has been rising along with higher oil prices, following overnight data from the Energy Information Administration which reported US crude oil inventories falling 4.2 million barrels last week. Being a commodity currency, the AUD finds support from rising commodity prices.
The greenback has earned some fresh momentum after upbeat housing numbers came out, backing the Fed’s April meeting minutes that indicated that a rate hike is plausible if the economic conditions are fair. Now all eyes are on Fed chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday to draw up some firm conclusions on the rate hike plan.
Next in focus for the pair will be the US data flow, including US durable goods orders and unemployment claims due today. Besides, RBA member Debelle’s speech and US Fed speak will be closely followed.

Fig. AUDUSD D1 Technical Chart
On the daily chart, AUD/USD is inching up to 0.71945. However, the recovery looks fragile and the price remains capped below the 0.72 handle. ADX is 47.55 with DI- staying above DI+, suggesting strong downward pressure. RSI is 32.32 and about to enter the oversold zone. The pair is expected to continue dropping soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.72598 valid until May 26, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.71293 valid until May 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 27, 2016
Data released yesterday added more positive sentiment to the US economy, as durable goods orders in the US jumped up 3.4% in May, according to the Commerce Department report. For the preceding month, total orders for long-lasting manufacturing goods just increased 1.9%. In addition, initial jobless claims in the week ending May 20th declined more than expected. There were 268,000 people claiming unemployment insurance last week, compared with the number of 278,000 in the week before.
The Office for National Statistics on May 26 announced that in volume terms, UK GDP for the first quarter in 2016 advanced 0.4% from the quarter prior, extending the positive growth for 13 consecutive quarters. Based on current prices, nominal UK GDP rose by 0.7%, compared with the quarter ending December 2015.
Early Friday, the Bank of Japan reported that, after eliminating the costs of energy and fresh food, Japan’s consumer prices for April inched up 0.9% from one year earlier. The latest data was lower than the increase of 1.1% (on an annualized basis) in March.
Later Today, the G-7 meeting comes to a conclusion, with the markets closely observing any statements and comments that may provide some clues on economic policies and some solutions to spur global economic growth.
In the Asian trading session on Friday, oil retreated after hitting the threshold of $50/barrel due to oversupply concerns and a rising dollar. The global benchmark, Brent, currently is at $49.79, down 0.48% from the last settlement.

Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig. GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD is in a bullish market overall, as seen in the green parabolics sar movement below the price chart. RSI is lingering around level 58 and heading down, suggesting weakening buying power. However, the pair is expected to continue its current up-move, retesting the resistance at 1.47389, the highest level since May 3.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 1.47389 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 1.46362 valid until May 27, 2016



EURJPY



Fig. EURJPY H4 Technical Chart

EURJPY has been moving sideways in a shrinking range around the area of 122.797. The red parabolics sar band is putting downward pressure on the pair, encouraging selling positions. RSI is staying at level 48 and pointing down, indicating a forming bearish market. The price is likely to hit the support at 122.218, the lowest level in more than 2 weeks.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 123.335 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 122.218 valid until May 27, 2016



AUDNZD



Fig. AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD has been falling continuously, since the beginning of the month as seen in the wide range of red parabolics sar band above the price movement. However, the green trend indicator arrow has appeared recently, suggesting a bullish market in formation. With RSI staying above 50 and heading up, the pair is expected to hit the resistance level at 1.08082, formed on May 7.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 1.08082 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 1.07000 valid until May 27, 2016



SILVER



Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver prices have retreated significantly over the last few sessions, and silver is now trading at 16.254. The commodity is in a bearish market as seen in the red parabolics sar moving above. RSI is at level 39, indicating that the price is about to enter the oversold territory. The price is expected to continue falling, hitting the support level at 16.081 soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 16.544 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 16.081 valid until May 27, 2016



WTI



Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI is in uptrend with the support of the green parabolics sar below. The up-trend indicator arrow has appeared since May 24, suggesting that the commodity is in a bullish market. RSI staying at above level 50 and heading towards the overbought zone, signals strong buying power. The price is expected to continue with its current surge.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 50.31 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 48.96 valid until May 27, 2016



DAX



Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart

Currently, the DAX is in overbought territory with the RSI staying above level 70, with the possibility of a reversal soon. The bullish market has been in place since the appearance of the green trend indicator arrow and the parabolics sar band, on May 24. The index is anticipated to move sideways around the area of 10267.0 for the rest of the day, and it may reverse and hit the support level at 10169.1 later today or early next week.

Trade suggestion

Buy Call Option On A Break Above 10299.7 valid until May 27, 2016

Buy Put Option On A Break Below 10169.1 valid until May 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

S&P 500 Gains As Energy Sector Shines, Fed Chair Awaited

On Friday, SP500 has surged to a high of 2093.15, up 0.14% in comparison with yesterday’s closing prices, while investors are monitoring the speech of Fed Chair Janet Yellen later today, and oil prices struggled to stay above $50 per barrel, boosting energy stocks.
Seven of the 10 major S&P sectors were higher, with the energy index leading the pack, with a 0.56% rise due to the surge in crude prices. Oil has rallied in recent weeks after the wildfires in Canada helped reduce 1 million barrels per day on the supply side. Also, the unrest in Nigeria and Libya have reduced market concerns on the global glut, as well as brought a faster-than-expected recovery to an oversupplied market.
Orders for U.S. durable goods, including items ranging from toasters to aircraft, witnessed a 3.4% increase in April after rising 1.9 percent in the previous period. The data beat market expectations of a 0.5 percent advance due to the strong demand for transportation equipment and a range of other products.
Moreover, the number of Americans filing in for unemployment insurance stayed at 268,000, dropping more than market expectations last week, as the economy regains momentum after stumbling in the first quarter of the year.
US discount retailers Dollar General and Dollar Tree stocks have hit record highs after their quarterly profits came in much higher than expected. In particular, Dollar General said it earned $1.03 per share in the first quarter on revenue of $5.27 billion. Dollar Tree reported that net sales in the quarter ending in April soared 133.6% from a year ago to $5.09 billion.
Sears Holdings jumped 12.6 percent to $14.12 after the announcement that it is exploring potential partnerships or other deals for some of its units.

Fig. SP500 D1 Technical Chart
SP500 is currently trading at 2092.46, moving between the range of 2037.89 and 2108.63 for a few sessions now. RSI is lingering at around level 60 and pointing to the overbought zone, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Despite the red parabolics sar band movement above the chart, the price is expected to hit the resistance area at 2108.63 before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Call Option On A Break Above 2108.63 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Put Option On A Break Below 2037.89 valid until May 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 30, 2016
The U.S Commerce Department reported on Friday that the US economy grew at a faster pace than the initial estimate, in the first quarter of 2016. However, the overall growth rate is still fairly sluggish. The gross domestic product last quarter grew by 0.8% on a year-on-year basis, well above the 0.5% forecast.
The greenback today is on an up-move in thin holiday trading, after FED Chair Yellen commented on May 27 that the central bank is considering raising the overnight interest rate from the range of in the coming months if the economy shows positive signals of a strong recovery.
Earlier today, data from Germany on German import prices for April, came in with a decrease of 6.6% from one year earlier. After excluding crude oil and mineral oil products, the index declined 4.0% in comparison with the level in 2015.
The KOF Economic Barometer for May was released early this morning, meeting the expected reading of 102.9 points, extending its solid uptrend since February. The latest reading indicates positive growth expectations for the Swiss economy in the coming months.
In Japan, weak retail sales data for April is supposed to be the main reason that Japan’s Prime Minister Abe planned to delay the nationwide sales tax increase by two and a half years. For the last month, turnovers from retailers dropped 0.8% from one year earlier. This was also the fastest decline in over 12 months.
Today, oil prices are moving down on a rising dollar and concerns that Canada’s output may be restored back to normal this week. WTI crude oil dipped to $49.32/barrel, 0.8% lower than the last close.

Technicals

EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Stochastics chart shows that the pair EURUSD has been in the oversold territory since a while, and the %K line (blue line) has already penetrated the %D line (red line), hinting a reversal. After testing a record low of 1.10966 since March 16, EURUSD is heading up slightly. However, this seems to be a short corrective bounce, before the pair resumes its fall. A short position is encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1.11676 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 1.10959 valid until May 30, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
The yen is on track to weaken against the sterling after the pair reached the support of 160.115 last Friday. The two moving averages moving under the price chart, are giving the pair support to surge higher. ADX (14) points up to 25.0641, confirming this uptick. The signal trend indicator has formed a green arrow under the price chart since May 25, suggesting a long position.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 162.577 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 162.316 valid until May 30, 2016

USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
The pair USDCAD has been flying high in overbought territory for a period of time. There are no signals of a reversal yet, as the %K line (blue line) is still heading upwards, well above the %D line (red line). The current uptrend is maintaining its strength as the RSI (14) has advanced to the average level. USDCAD is expected to keep gaining momentum until it hits the resistance of 1.31738 before falling back in the long-term as hinting by a red arrow above the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1.30763 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 1.30464 valid until May 30, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
GOLD is currently tiptoeing around the reading of 1203.00 after plummeting sharply from the resistance of 1288.30 formed on May 16. The stochastics chart shows that the precious metal has entered the oversold territory. The signal trend indicator has suggested a short position since May 18, with a significant move of 7038 points thus far. Hence, the price could possibly reverse into an uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1208.96 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 1204.90 valid until May 30, 2016

COPPER

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) has fallen to 49.0111, confirming a strengthening bear. COPPER prices are forming a double top pattern with the price entering the down wave that would complete and confirm this formation. Although a long position is signaled by the green arrow currently under the price, the metal is much more likely to keep plummeting to retest the support at 2.05000.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 2.1200 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 2.0500 valid until May 30, 2016

SP500

Fig. SP500 H4 Technical Chart
SP500 opened today’s trading session with a wide gap-up, surging as high as 2104.24 and is now pulling back to cover the gap in thin holiday trading. RSI (14) stands at 74.6345, implying that the index is approaching overbought territory. The price may reverse back into a down-move. The key support to watch is 2086.30.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 2103.28 valid until May 30, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 2098.77 valid until May 30, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil Dips As Worries On Rising Production Perist

Oil prices plunged on Monday as the stronger dollar put downward pressure on the market, while the Canadian oil sands production was predicted to gain this week.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down by 11 cents, compared to the previous close, at $49.22 per barrel. Brent futures were trading at $49.10 per barrel, losing 22 cents.
Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Saturday have helped reinforce market expectations of another rate hike in June or July. The US dollar hit a 1-month high against the basket of major currencies, with the Dollar index reaching the highest level in more than 2 months at 95.940. The rising dollar makes it more expensive for countries using other currencies to import dollar-traded fuel, including oil. This weighed on global oil demand as well as the commodity’s prices.
The fears of a renewed global glut have also negatively impacted crude prices. According to oil supplier Suncor Energy in Canada, the company is about to boost its output in Alberta after being forced to shut down due to massive wildfires in recent weeks. In Japan, the country’s biggest oil refiner JX Holdings Inc noted that its refined product exports will reach a record-high in June. The company estimated product exports next month will be around 220,000 barrels per day, up 40% compared with the same period last year and above the previous record of 191,000 barrels per day in April.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets in Vienna this Thursday. Most investors do not expect any decisions which can help support the crude price, as Iran and Saudi Arabia, two of the largest oil producers, have indicated they have no intention of freezing their oil production level and exports in a battle for gaining market share.

Fig. WTI D1 Technical Chart
WTI has gained significantly since February 11, when the green trend indicator arrow appeared. The price has just retreated from the overbought territory with RSI hovering at level 65 and pointing down currently. With the support from the EMA 10 and EMA 50 below, the price is anticipated to correct back and test the support level at 43.57 and then may bounce back up.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 50.47 valid until June 3, 2016
Buy One Touch Put Option at 47.07 valid until June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 31, 2016
Crude prices gained slightly on early Tuesday due to the increasing demand for oil ahead of the summer driving season, although fuel markets were weighed down by rising output in the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures climbed 17 cents to as high as $49.50 per barrel, while Brent crude oil inched up 0.07% to $50.29 in comparison with their last settlement.
The US dollar stayed firm today, hovering around the highest level in two months against the basket of major currencies. Market expectations of a US rate hike in June are growing day by day, especially after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that a rate increase would be appropriate if the US economy and labor market continued to show positive signals.
The dollar index, measuring the strength of the currency against its rivals, jumped to as high as 95.968 on Monday, adding 4.4% from the 15-1/2 month low hit earlier this month at 91.919.
Meanwhile, the sterling has been supported in recent weeks, as a series of polls have reported the “Remain” camp leading over the “Leave” side. The pound was lifted to the highest level in more than 3 months against the US dollar at around $1.47298 last week.
In Japan, data reported by the Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry on Tuesday, indicated that factory output gained 0.3% in April compared with the previous month, beating market expectations for a 1.5% drop, as the earthquakes in the South seemed to have had minimal impact on production. The better-than-expected data has supported the Yen, pushing the US dollar off its one-month peak against the Japanese currency.

Technicals

GBPUSD

Fig. GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart
Currently, sterling is in an up-move against the greenback after the pair GBPUSD hit the support of 1.45861 yesterday. However, the stochastics chart shows that the pair has approached overbought territory and a pullback is likely to happen as the %K (blue line) reversed and may soon cross over the %D line (red line). For the rest of the day, the price is anticipated to surge higher, retesting the resistance of 1.47398. After that, a reversal may occur.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1.46714 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 1.46544 valid until May 31, 2016


EURJPY

Fig. EURJPY H4 Technical Chart
Ahead of the ECB Press Conference on June 02, EURJPY has been tiptoeing lately, after rising from the three-week low of 122.206 on Friday. However, the bull seems dominant against the bear as indicated by a higher-than-average RSI (14). The pair is expected to stay gingerly for a bit and then resume its uptrend. A long position is encouraged by the green trend signal arrow under the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 123.896 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 123.688 valid until May 31, 2016


AUDNZD

Fig. AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart
Over the last week, AUDNZD has created a double bottom around the area of 1.06147 and currently is under slight upward pressure. The pair is expected to jump higher, thus beginning an uptrend after a long time of moving sideways. ADX (14) points up and stands at 21.10, implying that the current move is quite strong. The signal trend indicator has formed a green arrow since May 26, suggesting a long position.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 1.07711 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 1.07625 valid until May 31, 2016


SILVER

Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) has just escaped oversold territory after remaining in this zone for a while, indicating that an up-move may occur. The commodity is inching up from the support of 15.882 formed yesterday. The price is expected to consolidate for a period of time, breaking the level 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement and then pulling back. The signal trend indicator still suggests a short position.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 16.150 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 15.873 valid until May 31, 2016


WTI

Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI is on track for a gradual move-up after advancing strongly in the first half of May. The stochastics chart shows that the %K line (blue line) has reached the threshold of overbought area, hinting that a reversal back down is likely to occur in near future. However, the green arrow hanging under the price chart still signals a long position on this commodity.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 50.30 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 49.56 valid until May 31, 2016


DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
The bullish power of the price movement is currently under a shadow as indicated by a higher-than-70 reading of RSI (14). DAX has been in the overbought zone for a period of time, after a strong up-move from the support of 9768.37 since last Tuesday. In the short-term, the index may continue its uptick, testing the resistance around the area of 10415.77. After that, a reversal into downtrend is likely to come through.
Trade suggestion
Buy One Touch Call Option at 10373.8 valid until May 31, 2016

Buy One Touch Put Option at 10322.1 valid until May 31, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USD/CAD Rises On Yellen Comments, Watching Canadian GDP

The loonie started the week lower as the Memorial Day holiday restrained liquidity and guidance from the US markets. This week promises to be full of trading activity for all major pairs with many key events, but for now it is the calm before the storm.
Loonie’s strength is linked to energy prices, as the currency has a high correlation to the price of crude. WTI oil prices rose on Tuesday, buoyed by the start of the U.S. summer driving season, while Brent fell on rising output in the Middle East, which mostly serves Asian consumers. Oil prices are expected to stay volatile as investors focus on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting on Thursday in Vienna, although it’s unlikely that an agreement on output will be reached, especially after Iran and Iraq have both suggested that they will continue to increase production.
On the other hand, the greenback held firm on Tuesday, staying near its highest level in two months against a basket of currencies thanks to growing expectation of a U.S. interest rate hike.
The latest spark for dollar bulls came from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who on Friday said a rate increase in the coming months “would be appropriate,” if the economy and labour market continued to improve. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May has triggered a US dollar rally in expectation of an impending rate hike by June.
The dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies rose to as high as 95.968 on Monday, having jumped 4.4 percent from its 15-1/2-month low hit earlier this month at 91.919. It last stood at 95.79.
Later today at 8:30 am EDT, the top Canadian release will be the monthly GDP data. Trade balance data will be published on Friday, June 3 at 8:30 am EDT. It is expected that GDP may contract after the Canadian economy slowed, despite the impressive growth at the beginning of the year contributing to a strong first quarter. There are valid concerns over the second quarter as most recent manufacturing and export data has softened. The trade balance report on Friday is expected to show a 2.5 billion deficit.
Notably, the headwinds to both currencies may start with the release of employment data in the US, especially US Non-farm Employment Change on Friday. These figures could further validate the Fed’s comments of a June interest rate hike if the pace of jobs recovery is satisfactory.

Fig. USDCAD D1 Technical Chart
After testing the support level at 1.29075 last Thursday, USD/CAD has been inching up lately, currently settling at 1.30508. The bull seems dominant against the bear as indicated by a higher-than-average RSI (14) of 56.80. The pair is expected to resume its steady uptrend. A long position is further supported by the green trend indicator arrow and the SAR band under the price line.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.29113 to 1.31901 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[katycat]

Daily Report on June 01, 2016
The US dollar is moving in an unclear fashion due to mixed data on economic growth on Tuesday. Yesterday, the Commerce Department reported that consumer spending in April advanced 1.0%. The latest data beat economists’ expectation of a 0.7% increase, and recorded the largest jump since August 2009.
Meanwhile, a monthly survey on economic conditions by the Conference Board, reported that American’s confidence in the economic situation dipped further this month, coming in at 92.6 points, compared with the reading of 94.7 in April.
Data from Statistics Canada on Monday reported that the country’s economy is losing its steam as the real gross domestic product (GDP) in March grew less than expected, contracting 0.2% in comparison with a decline of 0.1% in the preceding month. For the first quarter in 2016, the economy registered an annual growth rate of 2.4%, while analysts had expected an increase of 2.9%.
Late yesterday, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported its official PMI data for May. According to the report, the non-manufacturing PMI inched down a little from 53.5 in the April to 53.1 last month, while the index for the manufacturing sector remained unchanged at 50.1.
In the Asian trading session on Wednesday, oil prices witnessed a slump due to rising production from major Middle East exporters. Slower growth in China is also weighing on global oil demand. WTI slid to $48.82 per barrel, down 0.4% from the close price on Tuesday.

Technicals

USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
After dropping significantly from around 111.878 a month ago, USDJPY has gradually recovered as seen in the green trend indicator's appearance below the price. The bull still seems dominant versus the bear with RSI staying above level 50 and pointing up to the overbought zone. The price is anticipated to move sideways around 110.680 before resuming its up-move, retesting the resistance level at 111.878.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 110.305 to 111.886 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

EURGBP

Fig. EURGBP H4 Technical Chart
EURGBP has retreated from the resistance at 0.76900 to 0.76758 despite the support of the two moving averages below. Bearish positions are encouraged with the red parabolics sar band applying downward pressure on the price. RSI (14) is lingering around 59 and pointing down, suggesting a down-move. The price is supposed to retest the support level at 0.76097, formed on May 24.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.76990 to 0.76097 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

CADCHF

Fig. CADCHF H4 Technical Chart
CADCHF has begun its bullish trend as indicated by the DI+ (green line) crossing up above the DI- (red line), although the signal trend indicator suggests short positions. The pair is hovering around the zone of Fibonacci retracement 61.8%, and is expected to continue moving up and hit the resistance zone at 0.77355. After that, the price is likely to reverse into a downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76152 to 0.77355 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
GOLD has fallen continuously since the beginning of May due to the downward pressure from a stronger dollar. The commodity is in a downtrend with heavy pressure from the parabolics band above. RSI lingers around level 45 and points to the oversold zone, suggesting a strongly bearish market. The price is expected to hit the support area at 1199.05, the lowest level in more than 3 months.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1220.04 to 1199.05 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

BRENT

Fig. BRENT H4 Technical Chart
BRENT has been moving between the range of 48.86 and 50.94 for more than a week with the current price at 49.49. The commodity is under pressure from the EMA 10 and EMA 30 above, along with RSI pointing to the oversold area, suggesting a bearish market. The price is anticipated to hit the support level at 48.86 and may then bounce back as the signal trend indicator implies long positions.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 49.47 to 48.86 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

FTSE

Fig. FTSE H4 Technical Chart
FTSE has moved up from around 6193.4 to as high as 6208.0. The signal trend indicator is suggesting long positions with support from the parabolics band below. RSI is above level 50 and pointing up, indicating a bullish market. With the support from the moving averages below, the price is anticipated to hit the two-month high at 6277.6.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 6193.4 to 6277.6 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/USD Tumbles On Brexit Opinion Polls Shock

On Wednesday, the British pound remains vulnerable after having suffered its biggest fall in more than two months on tuesday, as two opinion polls showed the “leave” vote was ahead in the EU referendum, re-igniting concerns over Brexit.
Ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership, results from a telephone poll conducted by polling organization ICM reported the ‘leave’ vote at 45% compared to 42% for the “remain” in EU camp. An online poll from the same firm shows 47% of respondents opting to leave and 44% to stay. The polls jolted the markets, which have recently been discounting that the chances of a “Brexit” are slim. Within minutes of the release of the latest poll results, GBP/USD lost more than a hundred pips and hit its lowest level in a week at 1.4547, while the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares ended the session 0.6% lower.
Earlier today, at 3:30 am EDT, UK’s May manufacturing PMI reported an improved result to 50.1 from the sharp drop seen in April, compared to a market forecast of 49.6. However, the minor-rebound in the PMI report does not seem to offset the fears about Britain’s EU referendum and the cable headed lower towards the 1.44 handle.
Meanwhile, the dollar took a step back from a two-month high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday after a mixed bag of U.S. economic data slightly tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
US data overnight saw personal income-related and housing indicators come in strong, with consumer spending recording its biggest increase in more than six years in April. However, consumer confidence dipped and the Chicago manufacturing PMI also proved disappointing. The dollar index (.DXY) pulled back from Monday’s two-month peak of 95.895 to stand at 95.802.
US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting on 14-15 June will decide whether or not to increase key lending rates. Traders are looking for clues and hints from the outsized amount of data that will be delivered this week; with particular interest cast around US data on Wednesday (ISM Manufacturing), Thursday (Crude oil inventories) and Friday (Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of May). Also potentially relevant to US Dollar trends is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday morning.

Fig. GBPUSD D1 Technical Chart
After turning sharply lower the previous day, the cable continues to drop further and is currently trading at 1.4558. The RSI (14) has decreased to 47.33, below the average level, indicating that a bearish trend is forming. The pair is expected to resume its down-move and reach the support at 1.43620.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.47404 to 1.43620 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/USD Tumbles On Brexit Opinion Polls Shock

On Wednesday, the British pound remains vulnerable after having suffered its biggest fall in more than two months on tuesday, as two opinion polls showed the “leave” vote was ahead in the EU referendum, re-igniting concerns over Brexit.
Ahead of the June 23 referendum on EU membership, results from a telephone poll conducted by polling organization ICM reported the ‘leave’ vote at 45% compared to 42% for the “remain” in EU camp. An online poll from the same firm shows 47% of respondents opting to leave and 44% to stay. The polls jolted the markets, which have recently been discounting that the chances of a “Brexit” are slim. Within minutes of the release of the latest poll results, GBP/USD lost more than a hundred pips and hit its lowest level in a week at 1.4547, while the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares ended the session 0.6% lower.
Earlier today, at 3:30 am EDT, UK’s May manufacturing PMI reported an improved result to 50.1 from the sharp drop seen in April, compared to a market forecast of 49.6. However, the minor-rebound in the PMI report does not seem to offset the fears about Britain’s EU referendum and the cable headed lower towards the 1.44 handle.
Meanwhile, the dollar took a step back from a two-month high against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday after a mixed bag of U.S. economic data slightly tempered expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
US data overnight saw personal income-related and housing indicators come in strong, with consumer spending recording its biggest increase in more than six years in April. However, consumer confidence dipped and the Chicago manufacturing PMI also proved disappointing. The dollar index (.DXY) pulled back from Monday’s two-month peak of 95.895 to stand at 95.802.
US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) next meeting on 14-15 June will decide whether or not to increase key lending rates. Traders are looking for clues and hints from the outsized amount of data that will be delivered this week; with particular interest cast around US data on Wednesday (ISM Manufacturing), Thursday (Crude oil inventories) and Friday (Non-Farm Payrolls for the month of May). Also potentially relevant to US Dollar trends is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday morning.

Fig. GBPUSD D1 Technical Chart
After turning sharply lower the previous day, the cable continues to drop further and is currently trading at 1.44653. The RSI (14) has decreased to 47.33, below the average level, indicating that a bearish trend is forming. The pair is expected to resume its down-move and reach the support at 1.43620.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.47404 to 1.43620 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on June 2, 2016
Oil prices are steady currently, ahead of today's OPEC meeting in Vienna, which is not expected to provide any solutions on containing the oil oversupply. Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two largest oil exporters, have stated that they are not prepared to cut their production, in order to protect their market share.
Brent crude oil futures inched up 5 cents to $49.77 per barrel in comparison with their last settlement. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at $48.92 per barrel, down 9 cents.
On Thursday, the dollar continued to fall against a basket of major currencies after the release of soft US economic data, which reduced hopes of a Fed rate hike next month. Data reported on Tuesday indicated that US consumer confidence slipped to as low as 92.6 compared with April’s 94.7 reading. Meanwhile, US manufacturing has gained for three consecutive months to May, but factories are slowing down on raw material deliveries from their providers, which could affect production in the following months.
According to the CME Group, market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in June, dropped to 22.5% from around 32% earlier this week. The curbed risk sentiment and concerns on Brexit have also put downward pressure on the greenback against safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen and precious metals.
Against the dollar, the euro climbed 0.24 percent to $1.1208 ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting later today. The ECB is widely predicted to hold steady on monetary policy.
The non-farm payrolls report will be released tomorrow, and is the focus of attention for the market, for indications on the strength of the US labor market, which in turn is one of the biggest considerations for the FED in its overall assessment of the economy and the path towards monetary policy normalization.

Technicals

EURAUD

Fig. EURAUD H4 Technical Chart
The Euro is bouncing back against the Aussie, with the EURAUD surging higher from the one-month low of 1.52361. As shown by the stochastics chart, the pair has been in the overbought territory since a while and the distance between %K line and %D line is shrinking, hinting a reversal into a down-move. The price is expected to test the resistance around the area of 1.55555 and then pull back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.55454 to 1.54693 valid until 18:00 June 2, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
GBPJPY is extending its fall after hitting the resistance of 163.900, the highest level since March 2016. ADX (14) is reading at 41.3107, with DI- much higher than DI+, indicating that the ongoing down move is powerful. A short position in this pair has been encouraged since yesterday as the signal trend indicator formed a red arrow over the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 156.888 to 155.779 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
Ahead of the Challenger ADP report on Non-farm employment change, USDCAD currently is moving in an unclear direction, around the area of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. RSI (14) hovers near the average, also giving no clear signals of price movement. The pair is expected to move sideways for several hours before resuming the uptrend. A breakout through the level 0 of Fibonacci retracement is likely to happen.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.31098 to 1.31687 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
On the last trading day of May, GOLD broke the two week old down-trend line after bouncing back from the support of 1199.45. ADX (14) has lowered to a reading of 19.7902, implying that the bear’s power is dying down. Hence, the price is anticipated to begin an uptrend after some sideways movement. as the break above the trend line seems significant.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1217.55 to 1228.44 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

COPPER

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart
COPPER is halting for a bit after rising from the support of 2.0492. A smaller-than-average reading of RSI (14) indicates that the bear is casting its shadow on the price movement. The commodity is forecast to dim further, breaking the current support as signaled via the red trend signal indicator hanging over the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 2.0649 to 2.0503 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

NASDAQ

Fig. NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart
NASDAQ seems quite languid under the resistance of 4530.95 after rising back up sharply from the support of 4280.40. RSI (14) shows that the index has escaped the overbought territory after being in this zone for a long period of time. Though the bull is still dominant, the bear is coming in, and is expected to gather enough energy to push the price down. The previously suggested long position, according to the trend indicator signal shows a gain of 1425 pip thus far, which is significant already. So a reversal into a downtrend may happen soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 4499.28 to 4438.01 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/USD Advances Ahead Of ECB Meeting

Demand for the Euro (EUR) remained stronger on Thursday, despite the latest Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs indicating that growth within the currency union remains stagnant. As the OECD took a slightly less pessimistic outlook on the Eurozone economy, investors seem to favor the single currency over its rivals.
The European Central Bank will conclude its policy meeting later today at 7:30 am EDT, though no change is expected to its monetary policy and stimulus package ahead of the result from the UK’s referendum on EU membership. Should this be the case, the Euro will continue to strengthen. However, any mention of future policy easing from ECB officials could weigh on demand.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar slipped on fresh doubts about a Federal Reserve interest rate rise in June. On Thursday, the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 94.25 so far.
In US data released Wednesday, ISM manufacturing PMI and prices for May were at 51.3 and 63.5 respectively, both beating expectations of 50.5 and 58.0. Construction spending month-over-month in April, however, disappointed at -1.8 percent, a major miss from the 0.5 percent estimate. Although the numbers have improved, they may not be good enough.
Key economic data due later on Thursday includes US ADP non-farm employment, which will offer a preview to the government-released jobs report on Friday. If US Unemployment Rate and Change in Non-Farm Payrolls produce disappointing results, the Euro will likely extend gains amid speculation of longer-term delays to a Fed rate hike.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna later today as well but there are doubts in the market that it will be able to reach an agreement to cap crude oil production. Thursday will also see the release of US Crude Oil Inventories, which could result in volatility in the oil market. The Eurodollar exchange rate has been highly correlated with the crude oil price since 2001. A fall in the price of oil goes hand in hand with a fall in the relative strength of the Euro.

Fig. EURUSD D1 Technical Chart
Currently, EUR/USD is trading higher at 1.12149, finally advancing through the 1.12000 barrier, although the pace has consolidated after the overnight rally. The bearish trend in EUR that started slightly more than 2 weeks ago has ended. DI+ (red) is above DI- (green), speculating for an uptrend with ADX of 26.32. Stochastic is bouncing back out of oversold zone. The %K line is above %D line indicating that the bullish trend is in action and the pair may continue going up.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.11116 to 1.13353 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Drops Slightly Ahead Of U.S Non-Farm Data

Gold was nearly unchanged on Friday but headed for a fifth consecutive weekly decline, as the dollar and Asian stocks held firm and the market awaited U.S. nonfarm payroll data.
Bullion was little affected in the previous session with the European Central Bank keeping its rates unchanged, and its President Mario Draghi said inflation would likely remain very low or negative in the next few months.
Investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. labor data due later today at 7:30 am EDT, a solid reading of which could heighten expectations for a US interest rate move as early as the Federal Reserve’s June 14-15 policy meeting. If U.S. employment figures are strong and inflation moves closer to the 2 percent target, the U.S. central bank may raise the federal funds rate (the rate it charges to lend money to other U.S. banks). Higher interest rates mean investors can earn more when holding the greenback, thus increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest yielding gold, and gold prices suffer.
Gold prices and the U.S. dollar have a strong negative correlation. The US dollar climbed against most major currencies today as jobs data from the country came out positive on Thursday. According to the May ADP National Employment Report, US private sector employment increased by 173,000 jobs from April to May. The dollar index, which is a strong indicator of gold’s next move, was up 0.10 percent at 95.552 in early trading Friday.
Gold, which has gained about 14 percent so far this year, has been under pressure after the latest Fed meeting minutes released in May and comments from senior U.S. central bank officials, including chief Janet Yellen, boosted expectations of an imminent rate rise. Gold is now down 6.3 percent from the 2016 high it hit on May 2. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that hedge funds have cut their gold holdings since January.
Yellen is due to speak on Monday, the last chance for the Fed to communicate with markets before it begins a blackout period ahead of its policy meeting on June 14-15.

Fig. GOLD D1 Technical Chart
Spot gold is currently nearly flat at 1212.34 per ounce. It touched a low of 1206.60 earlier in the session and remained on track for its fifth straight weekly loss. ADX is at 39.58, along with DI- staying above DI+, suggesting bearish market. RSI is at 36.64, close to the oversold territory, indicating that the selling power is very strong. The commodity price is anticipated to consolidate further in a narrow range.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1224.44 to 1199.08 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on June 03, 2016
In the Asian trading session on Friday, oil prices were stable around the threshold of $50 per barrel, despite OPEC’s failure to agree on output targets. At the meeting on June 02, while Iran persisted with its stance of an output-increase to regain market share, Saudi Arabia committed not to stir the energy market with more fuel. Oil prices received further support as data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude stockpiles drew down for a second straight week, and inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels in the week ending May 27.

Meanwhile, after climbing higher following some positive data from US labor market overnight, the greenback is currently tiptoeing as investors turn their attention to the Non-farm payrolls report, which will be out later today. As reported by the ADP, there were 173,000 jobs added in the private sector last month, 7,000 higher than the previous reading. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have decreased for four consecutive weeks, as the latest data for the week ending May 27 reported 267,000 people filing for unemployment benefits.

Today, the euro is moving in an unclear fashion against its peers after plummeting significantly after the ECB released its post meeting statement and held a press conference yesterday. ECB President Draghi commented that on the whole the risks to growth remain biased towards the downside as slow global growth around the world weighs on demand for exports of goods and services. The ECB chief expressed some concerns over the fact that individual governments within EU member countries would need to escalate the pace of structural and fiscal policy changes and support measures, to derive full benefits from the monetary policy efforts of the central bank to strengthen the EU economy.

Coming to a conclusion, the Governing Council of the European Central bank decided to hold its interest rates unchanged. Accordingly, the rate on the main refinancing operations, marginal lending facility and deposit facility still stay at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively.

Late on Thursday Markit Economics reported that China’s service sector plunged to a three-month low in May due to the slowdown in new business and hiring activity. The Caixin Services PMI for last month contracted to 51.2, from a reading of 51.8 in the preceding month. Economists had expected the index would rise 0.2 points to 52.0 in May.

Technicals

EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
After dropping from the resistance at 1.12196, EURUSD is moving sideways around the area of 1.11493. RSI is lingering around level 46 and pointing down, signaling a downtrend is about to be formed. The price is anticipated to hover around the current levels for the rest of the day. After that, it may retest the support level at 1.11131, due to pressure from the two EMAs hovering above the price.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.12196 to 1.11131 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016


GBPAUD

Fig. GBPAUD H4 Technical Chart
GBPAUD has been under downward pressure from the parabolics band above the price, after rising to 2.05250. The price seems to have entered the oversold zone with RSI pointing down and the DI- (red line) crossing up through the DI+ (green line). The trend indicator hints at a bearish market with selling positions encouraged. The pair is expected to hit the support level at 1.98227 soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.01070 to 1.98227 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016


USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
USDJPY has pulled back slighly from around 108.469 to the current price 108.695. The trend indicator arrow has appeared since June 1 suggesting a down trend. The EMAs are hanging above the price, thus encouraging selling positions. However, RSI has consistently refused to enter the oversold area. The price is anticipated to pull back from the support of 108.469 and may hit the resistance level at around 110.546.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 108.469 to 110.546 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016


SILVER

Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Silver prices have fallen continuously from around 17.705 over the last 2 weeks. However, the price is currently witnessing a period of consolidation as indicators are showing an unclear trend. While RSI has crawled up to 47.76, all three lines of ADX are snaking through each other. An uptrend may be formed, and may push the price higher, if the support at 15.877 continues to hold.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 15.916 to 16.155 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016


DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
DAX is on track to continue rising. Its currently lingering around the area of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The trend indicator suggests buy positions with the green arrow appearing more than 3 weeks ago. RSI is staying at level 56 and pointing to the overbought zone, signaling that the bull is dominant. The index is expected to test the zone of resistance at 10519.5 before pulling back.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 10258.0 to 10519.5 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016


SP500

Fig. SP500 H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) is currently at the level of 62.6595, and knocking the doors to enter the overbought territory. This indicates drastic bullish power. After reaching the support of 2083.67 on the first day of June, the index is on its way to climbing higher. The index is anticipated to surge higher strongly in the short-term. A long position is signaled by the green trend arrow underpinning the price chart since May 24.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 2082.47 to 2105.73 valid until 20:00 June 3, 2016