Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

EUR/GBP Stable So Far – Greek Debt Crisis Reignites

The Euro’s movements have been generally positive recently. In terms of domestic data, the biggest Eurozone news on Monday was increasing German factory orders (on a monthly and yearly basis) in April. Respective figures of 1.9% and 1.7% were released, beating expectations of 0.6% and 0.1%. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index also bettered forecasts yesterday, rising from 5.7 to 6.2 rather than registering the predicted score of 6.
However, the focus for the EU has again turned to the Greek government, which has been struggling to balance the act of implementing harsh tax and pension reforms with the increasingly violent protests of the population in response to these measures in the capital. International creditors are meeting to decide whether to approve further bailout funds disbursal to Greece, without implementing further austerity measures. The Euro has softened versus most of its major peers in response to this development.
Meanwhile, Pound Sterling (GBP) has been lacking momentum against its rivals. This morning’s speech by the Prime Minister does not seem to have resulted in any real positivity for the UK currency. David Cameron has put forward a bleak and sensationalist argument that the EU was a force for peace and that a break-up of the union could lead to war. In addition, news that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates down the line, has also weakened the Pound Sterling against the Euro.
The next notable developments for the pair EUR/GBP are expected to come from the Eurozone, in form of a number of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, during this week.
EURGBP

Fig. EURGBP D1 Technical Chart
The Euro to Pound Sterling has currently traded at 0.78753, moving in a narrow range. Although the red parabolic SAR indicates that the downtrend is likely to remain, the pair is expected to plunge slightly then go up again. ADX is 27.57, showing a relatively strong uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.80235 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.77281 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/CAD Edges Lower As U.K. Business Output Falls Short Of Market Forecast

The British Pound has been edging higher versus a number of its major peers, although the appreciation has been limited. The uptrend was initiated by positive trade balance data as March’s Total Trade Balance was forecast to indicate a deficit reduction from -£4.3 billion to -£4.2 billion, but the actual result dropped to -£3.83 billion. The narrowing trade deficit reflected a £0.4 billion increase in exports to £23.7 billion in March.
However, today’s unexpected contraction in UK Industrial & Manufacturing production (by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively) has been dragging on the British Pound, as it gives the BoE greater scope to retain the record-low interest rates for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, crude prices fell on Wednesday as oil sands production in Canada restarted, and already record-high inventories (especially in the United States) seem to be growing even further. As a result, the Loonie has been weakening.
Furthermore, trade and employment numbers have depreciated the CAD, with the trade deficit in March unexpectedly widened to a record C$3.41 billion ($2.66 billion) as exports sank for a second month. The downward pressure on the economy, associated with the impact of the wild fires and trade deterioration could bring the Bank of Canada (BoC) back into action in form of a rate cut sooner than originally anticipated.
Next up for the Canadian dollar will be the release of the U.S. crude oil inventories later today. The United States remains the biggest destination for Canadian oil. A reduction of inventories would boost global crude prices, and demand and revenues for Canadian producers.
GBPCAD

Fig. GBPCAD D1 Technical Chart
On the daily chart, the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar is currently ticking down to 1.86063, moving in a narrow range. Despite the green parabolics SAR showing a possible bullish trend being formed, the pair is expected to test the support at 1.84345 before bouncing back. RSI is 56.37, indicating an unclear direction.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.87794 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.84345 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 11, 2016
Data on the number of job openings in the US during March, excluding the farming industry, was released yesterday. It came in with a rise of 149,000 - to a total number of 5.8 million. According to the Labor Department, this reading on the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, was the highest level since July. Layoffs continue to decrease suggesting that the labor market is staying firm in spite of the slowdown indicated in the April NFP data.
The US hiring rate also dropped to 3.7% from February’s 3.8%, which indicated that businesses was not finding enough qualified employees for open positions.
The Japanese Yen stayed has been defensive so far today, after two-consecutive-days of declines. This resulted from the Bank of Japan’s warning that it would intervene to ease the market. Yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s adviser Hamada has stated that Japan would act if the Yen strengthened to 90-95 per dollar, hinting at possible intervention to weaken the currency.
Oil prices are also plunging in early trading today as record crude oil inventories reported last week and expectations for further rises in the inventory data to be released later today are exerting downward pressure on the market. Canadian oil sands production is also likely to recover, as the wildfire situation is brought under control, and forced closures due to the wildfires, are brought back on line. The increasing tension between Middle East suppliers is also triggering concerns of continuous global glut, weighing on prices.
Brent crude oil futures dropped 3 cents to $45.49 per barrel compared with the last settlement, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost 8 cents to $44.58 per barrel.

Technicals

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has witnessed a significant drop from a high of 0.78327 as seen in the red parabolics sar movement above the price. RSI is hovering around level 41 and pointing down, indicating a continuing downtrend for the pair. The price is anticipated to retest the support level at 0.72939, the lowest level in more than 2 months.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.72939 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.73565 valid until May 13, 2016

EURJPY

EURJPY retreated from around 124.562, after gaining for more than 5 consecutive days. The pair is hovering around the zone of Fibonacci retracement 50.0 with RSI heading down from level 60, indicating a weakening of the buying trend. The price is predicted to hit Fibonacci 23.6 area (around 122.644) before reversing. A selling order is encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 122.644 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 123.911 valid until May 13, 2016

NZDCAD

NZDCAD has been moving between the range of 0.87090 and 0.88725 since the beginning of the month. RSI is staying above level 50 and heading into overbought territory, indicating the formation of an up-move for the pair. The price may retest the resistance area at around 0.88725, created on April 5.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.87952 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.88725 valid until May 13, 2016

GOLD

Gold has gained consecutively for 2 weeks, from 1227.31 to as high as 1303.70. The commodity retreated from that resistance, and is currently moving sideways around the area of Fibonacci retracement 50.0, around the 1270.25 level. RSI is staying around level 46 and heading up, indicating strong buying power. Gold is expected to hit the zone of Fibonacci 23.6 before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1270.25 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1285.67 valid until May 13, 2016

WTI

WTI has been moving sideways between 43.45 and 47.09 with the current price of 44.96. RSI is hovering around level 52 and heading up, along with DI- (green line) about to cross up DI+ (red line), indicating that a bearish trend has been formed. Despite the moving averages supporting from below, the commodity is expected to retest the support level at 43.45 soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 43.45 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 44.96 valid until May 13, 2016

SP500

SP500 has gained for 5 consecutive sessions to as high as 2084.07. The bullish market has been formed since the green arrow appeared. RSI seems to be strong at level 64 and heading up, indicating that the index is about to enter the overbought territory. The price is expected to hit the resistance at 2099.26, the highest level in more than 3 weeks.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2084.07 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2099.26 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 12, 2016
On Thursday, the US dollar dropped against the basket of major currencies after 7 consecutive days of gains, as investors locked in profits on a day with no major US economic data. Moreover, the currency was also under downward pressure from global stock market slump.
However, the greenback has surged strongly lately against its Japanese counterpart. The Yen’s recent depreciation has help stop the run of gains that pushed it to the highest level in 18 months versus the dollar early this month.
Investors have been turning their focus to the pound sterling as the BOE monetary policy meeting and Quarterly Inflation Report are scheduled for today. With the U.K. referendum on continued EU membership right around the corner, the BOE has a lot to consider this month with three specific issues to be focused on - growth, inflation and Brexit.
The New Zealand dollar on the other hand extended its gains after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expressed urgent concerns about house prices in Auckland. Although the central bank also expressed concern about lower dairy prices, the greater issue seems to be high house prices. This indicates a reduction in chances of any near term easing by the Reserve Bank - hence the rise in kiwi.
Oil prices lost traction early Thursday on profit-taking, reversing a sharp rise from yesterday when the U.S reported an unexpected fall in crude inventories, and continuing supply outages in Canada and Africa. International Brent crude futures were at $47.47 per barrel today, down 13 cents from their last settlement.
According to a World Gold Council report released earlier today, global demand for gold surged 21% in the first quarter of 2016, compared with the previous quarter. Gold currently trades at $1270.66/ounce, 0.5% lower than the previous close.

Technicals

EURGBP

EURGBP has been moving sideways for a period of time and has retested the level 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement many times. This level is still holding and seems to have turned into a solid support for prices. A green arrow has just appeared under the price chart, signaling a buying position. The uptrend is also confirmed as ADX (14) stands at 27.4246.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.79175 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78928 valid until May 16, 2016

USDJPY

The USD is tracing an up-move against the yen after the pair USDJPY reached the support of 108.197. RSI (14) is at 62.2429, indicating that the bull is ahead. Hence, the price is supposed to continue climbing up and may break the resistance of 109.360 formed two days ago. The signal trend indicator is currently suggesting a long position.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 109.010 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 108.690 valid until May 16, 2016

NZDUSD

After hitting the lowest level of 0.67142 in one and a half month, the pair NZDUSD has since bounced back, trimming the losses. However, the red arrow hanging above the price chart still implies a selling position. The pair is anticipated to swing around the level 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement in the short-term and could then return to the current downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.68183 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.68036 valid until May 16, 2016

SILVER

Yesterday, SILVER broke the ten-day old downtrend and has been moving sideways since. RSI (14) hovers around the average, indicating that the price may continue the stable trend for a while before surging up. A green arrow has appeared under the price chart, encouraging a buying position.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 17.375 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 17.306 valid until May 16, 2016

COPPER

COPPER is heading up for some consolidation from the support of 2.0888, the one-month low. The price may pull back soon as the signal trend indicator still indicates a down-move for the commodity. The level 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement is expected to turn into a support area for the price. Bears still look strong.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1259 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.1178 valid until May 16, 2016

FTSE

FTSE opened today’s trading with a wide gap and is currently covering the gap. The signal trend indicator signaled a short position since April 25, with a gain of 16165 points up to now. This is a considerably large move for the index, hence, a reversal into an uptrend is expected to happen after the price tests the support at 6052.66
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6125.9 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6074.5 valid until May 16, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USD/CAD Slips As Tightening Crude Inventory Supports CAD

The Canadian dollar has reversed some of the week’s earlier losses after the release of the U.S. crude inventories at 10:00 am EDT on Wednesday. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued the latest weekly report that showed a shrinking of inventories by 3.4 million barrels in the week ending May 6, against expectations of a 0.714 million barrels increase, while output fell 0.261% to 8.802 million barrels.
The shortfall in crude drove energy prices higher and in turn took the CAD along for the ride. USD/CAD hit a low of 1.2843, last seen on Friday last week.
The correlation between the price of oil and the Canadian dollar is strong. The loonie will remain volatile along with oil prices as the Alberta wild fires rage on, and an oil production freeze almost seems impossible at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting next month.
On Thursday, the US dollar dropped against the basket of major currencies after 7 consecutive days of gains, as investors locked in profits on a day with no major US economic data. The greenback fell for a third day against the loonie as a rally in oil, bolstered currencies of commodity-exporting nations. Moreover, the USD has also faced downward pressure as global stock markets slump.
USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD D1 Technical Chart
On the daily chart, we observe a slight fall to 1.28419. The USD is tracing a down-move against the CAD after this pair tested the support at 1.30170, three days ago. The ADX is 28.00, with DI- staying above DI+, indicating a strong selling power. USD/CAD is expected to continue falling before approaching the resistance level at 1.26987.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.29990
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.26987

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 13, 2016
At its MPC meeting on Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5%, as the central bank was adopting a wait-and-watch approach to the monetary policy ahead of the June referendum. According to the BOE Inflation report, the British economy remains subdued as the twelve-month CPI inflation in March rose to 0.5% - still far below the target of 2% this year.
BOE Governor Mark Carney yesterday warned that a vote for Brexit next month could create an uncertain environment in the economy and a UK recession would become likelier.
The US Department of Labor reported yesterday that initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 07 came in at the highest level since February 2015. The latest data reported that 294,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the above-mentioned week, compared with a reading of 274,000 in the week before. All data is seasonally adjusted.
Retail spending in New Zealand for the first quarter of 2016 was reported yesterday, continuing to increase thanks to the uptrend in the utilities sector. Statistics New Zealand reported that total retail sales (seasonally adjusted) for the quarter ending in March 2016 climbed 0.8% from the preceding reading of a 1.1% increase.
Data from the Finance Ministry on May 13 showed that China’s fiscal expenditures, inched up by 4.5% last month on yearly basis. This compares with a rise of 20.1% in March.
Meanwhile, the BOJ's Kuroda today restated that to boost inflation to the target of 2%, the central bank will deploy more monetary easing policy measures, if required.
In the commodity market, oil prices witnessed a slight decline in early trading today, weighed down by a strong dollar and a potential supply overhang. The global benchmark, Brent, was down to $46.74/barrel, 0.7% lower than the previous close. In contrast, the gold price is on track to rise, currently at $1270.80/oz, up 0.6% from the last settlement.

Technicals

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has been moving sideways within a narrow range around 1.14468 for 10 days, under the pressure of the red parabolics above. RSI is hovering around level 42 and heading down, showing strong selling power in the pair. The price is anticipated to retest the support level at 1.43705, the lowest level from the beginning of this month.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.43705 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.44183 valid until May 13, 2016

USDCAD

USDCAD has just retreated from the support level at 1.27693, created on May 12, and is now trading at 1.28728. The red arrow’s appearance above the prices signals that the pair is in a bearish market. However, RSI is staying above level 50 and pointing up towards the overbought zone, indicating stronger buying power. The price may make another attempt at the resistance level around 1.30163, the highest level in more than a month.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.28728 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.30163 valid until May 13, 2016

CHFJPY

CHFJPY has been moving between the range of 109.730 and 112.790 since April 28. The pair is now trading at 111.567, with RSI hovering around level 45 and heading down. Although the green parabolics sar is moving below and supporting the price movement, the pair is expected to cross through the band and hit the support area at 109.730.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 109.730 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 111.567 valid until May 13, 2016

GOLD

Gold has retreated from the resistance at around 1303.70 after witnessing a strong surge in the last couple of weeks. The commodity is moving sideways around the zone of Fibonacci 38.2. RSI is staying at level 51 and seems headed down, forming a bearish setup. The price is expected to hit the area of Fibonacci 61.8 (1256.49) before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1256.49 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1274.52 valid until May 13, 2016

BRENT

Brent has retreated from the resistance at around 48.39, the highest level since the beginning of the month. The commodity is currently trading at 47.88. The RSI has just escaped from the overbought territory. Despite support from the moving average below, the price is expected to fall further and reach the support level at 46.88.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 46.88 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 47.88 valid until May 13, 2016

NASDAQ

NASDAQ has witnessed a strong downtrend as seen in the red parabolic SAR band, from April 21 to May 6. The index then bounced back and has just retreated since the red arrow re-appeared. RSI is hovering around level 37 and heading down, suggesting that the index is about to enter the oversold zone. The price is anticipated to drop further, testing the support at 4266.38, the lowest level in May, so far.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4266.38 valid until May 13, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4310.50 valid until May 13, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

NZD Facing Concerns, USD Backed By Fed Statements

NZD/USD posted small gains yesterday following the release of a mixed bag of data. The New Zealand Business NZ Manufacturing Index in April improved to 56.6 points from 54.7 the previous month, its highest monthly rise since January. However, the Food Price Index softened to 0.3% in April as the national economy continues to struggle with low inflation levels.
The RBNZ released its Financial Stability Report earlier this week, and expressed its concerns that weak global growth, low dairy prices and high house prices posed risks to the New Zealand economy. The soft global economy continues to take a toll on the New Zealand export sector. Inflation is currently at 0.4%, well short of the Bank’s target of 2.0%. The RBNZ has been reluctant to respond to low inflation with another rate cut, due to concerns about the pace of price growth in the housing market.
In comparison, the US dollar hit a two-week high against a basket of currencies on friday, posting its best fortnightly performance since February. The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against six major rivals, rose 0.2 percent to 94.442its strongest since April 28.
This uptrend is supported by the view that the U.S. Federal Reserve is still on track to raise rates before any other major central bank. Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren on Thursday said that the Fed should raise interest rates if data confirmed a stronger jobs market and inflation outlook in the second quarter.
Today, investors await US retail sales, inflation and consumer confidence reports, that are on the schedule. These upcoming reports will be major factors as the Fed must decide whether to press the rate trigger in June. The minutes of the April Fed meeting will be released next week, and any clues about a June hike could send the dollar higher against its rivals.
NZDUSD

Fig. NZDUSD D1 Technical Chart
Today NZD/USD ended its two-day up move and is currently ticking down to 0.66613. RSI (14) hovers below the average at 45.36, suggesting that the bearish trend has not been confirmed yet. A red SAR arrow has appeared over the price line, signaling that a short position is desirable at the moment.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.69292 valid until May 16, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.66685 valid until May 16, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 16, 2016
The US dollar has been on the rise against the basket of major currencies since Friday, after US monthly retail sales data reported the biggest increase in consumer spending in a year, prompting new speculation of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year.
Today in the US, the NAHB Housing Market Index, which reports home sales and housing market trends in the United States will be released. If the result beats market expectations, then the US Dollar may get bid in the short term.
On early Monday, the Yen fell on a lower-than-expected reading from the Producer Price Index (PPI). Instead of falling 3.7% as forecast, the Japanese PPI (m/m) witnessed a 4.2% decline in April, compared with a 3.8% drop in the previous release.
Pound Sterling has been seeing volatile moves as the EU referendum campaign heats up. In addition to IMF’s caution on the possible consequences of a British vote to leave the EU, the Bank of England (BoE) also warned that UK leaving from the EU would cause substantial harm to its economy and currency.
Data in Canada continued to disappoint markets last week with a poor capex intentions survey pointing to a large investment drop in energy and manufacturing in 2016. In addition to the CAD's strong appreciation and oil production disruptions due to the tragic wildfires, these poor results pose large downside risks to second quarter growth and increase the probability that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may start discussing a cut in interest rates.
Oil prices jumped over 1 percent on Monday after Goldman Sachs said the market had ended almost two years of oversupply following global oil disruptions and flipped to a deficit. Today, Brent crude futures were trading at $48.50/barrel, up 67 cents, or 1.4 percent, from their last settlement.
Gold rose for a second session on Monday, as slowing economic growth in China and weakness in Asian stock markets lifted the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal. Gold is currently trading at $1282.26/ounce, up 0.33% compared with its previous close.



Technicals

EURUSD
In general, the euro is on track to weaken against the USD after the resistance of 1.16165 was formed on May 03. The reading of DI+ and DI- are 3.4529 and 22.5065, respectively, suggesting a selling position. In addition, the downtrend is very strong as indicated by ADX (14)’s reading of 54.7356. The pair is expected to consolidate for a while and then turn downwards.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.13023
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.12788

GBPJPY

GBPJPY is bouncing back from the support of 155.642, hovering between levels 38.2% and 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement. With RSI (14) near the average, the stable trend is supposed to last for a period of time. After that, the price may surge higher, breaking the level 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. A long position is encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 156.824
Buy Digital Put Option at 157.580

USDCAD

The Loonie is currently strengthening against the greenback. The level 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement was tested a few days ago but is still holding as the pair failed to close under this area. Besides, ADX (14) stands at 39.8178 with DI+ far higher than DI-, implying a strong uptrend. Hence, it is believed that USDCAD is pulling back for some consolidation before surging up.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.29441
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.29103

GOLD

The precious metal has been moving gingerly for several days. The two moving averages have just met, giving no clear direction on the price movement. However, the stochastics chart shows that the %K line (blue line) has already entered the overbought territory. Therefore a reversal into a downtrend is expected to happen soon, after the price tests the resistance of 1286.95.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1278.07
Buy Digital Put Option at 1286.23

COPPER

On Thursday, COPPER tested the support of 2.0574 – the lowest level in about three months. After that, the commodity has been moving sideways. The signal trend indicator has been suggesting a short position since May 03 with a fall of 1383 points, up to now, since the signal was generated. The price is anticipated to attempt a bounce back soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1088
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0880

SP500

After attempting to cross over the level 61.8% of Fibonacci retracement once again and reaching the resistance of 2084.55, the index has dropped back. Bears seem dominant as the RSI (14) is currently reading at 39.1191. The red arrow has already appeared above the price chart, hinting a short position. The price is expected to break level 0 of the Fibonacci retracement.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2033.96
Buy Digital Put Option at 2044.63

 

[Option_Banque]

Dollar Stays Firm Ahead Of G7 Meeting

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) released its latest Financial Stability Report, which identified slowing global growth, low dairy prices and rising house prices as risks. The central bank noted that the risks to the country’s financial system have increased in the past six months. The inflation rate is staying at 0.4%, far below the bank’s target of 2%. For this reason, the RBNZ seems to set further cuts to the official cash rate, which might help boost the exports. The New Zealand dollar has dropped to as low as $0.67580 after the announcement.
In March, the British factory output recorded its biggest annual fall in nearly three years, with the total production output decreasing by 0.4% in the first quarter of the year compared with the fourth quarter of 2015. Besides, investors remained the expectations of a cut in the Bank of England’s interest rate by the end of the year, due to concerns over the Brexit impacts on Britain’s growth. Sterling continued to go down against the strong Euro despite some minimal gains against the US dollar on Wednesday.
The US Crude Inventories fell 3.4 million barrels to as low as 540 million barrels last week, in comparison with analysts’ prediction of 714,000 barrels increase, which made oil prices to surge and reach the highest level from the beginning of the year. However, the surprise draw in crude inventories was offset on Thursday by the expected recover in Canadian oil sand crude production following disruptions to over 1 million barrels of daily production capacity due to wildfire.
In the US, the number of people filled for the state unemployment benefits hit the biggest gains in more than a year. In particular, the initial unemployment rose 17,000 to 274,000 for the week to April 30, according to the Labor Department. However, jobless claims still stayed below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 61 consecutive weeks. US government debt prices trimmed its losses slightly, while the US dollar gained against the basket of currencies after the data.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Friday that the Fed was considering whether to raise interest rates at its next meetings, with the current good economic outlook. He also stated that two to three rate increases this year definitely still made sense.
Gold prices gained on Friday after more than 1% losses the session before. However, the commodity was on track for its biggest weekly decline since March because the stronger greenback weighed on the precious metals’ appeal.
Next week’s latest employment data of Australia do not seem to change the view that the RBA will cut rates further in the coming months. The Australian economy is anticipated to add 12,500 jobs in April, down from 26,100 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 5.8% while wage growth is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.2%.
The market is waiting for the meeting of the Group of Seven major economies held in May 19-20. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Friday that he would continue to work to support the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency as it was the definition of safety. About China, Lew indicated that he would keep pressing Beijing to reduce excess industrial capacity that is distorting the world markets.

 

[Option_Banque]

Yen Retreats As Positive US Data Offsets Weakness In China

On Monday, the Japanese Yen pared the gains versus its US dollar counterpart. Initially, in early Asian trade, the currency rose because disappointing economic news from China made investors rush into the safe-haven currency. Over the weekend, some Chinese data was released, which raised worries in the market about slow global growth. In particular, factory production and retail sales all advanced less than expected, reinforcing the fact that March’s recovery was not yet stable.
The yen then retreated from its earlier highs as Tokyo shares regained strength from strong U.S. data on Friday that helped offset concerns over weak Chinese economic indicators.
According to Commerce Department figures, US purchases witnessed a 1.3% rise in April, the biggest gain since March 2013, after a 0.3 percent drop in March. Core retail sales were seen climbing 0.1% in March, while analysts had expected retail sales to gain 0.8% and core retail sales to add 0.1% last month.
The data hit the record high as Americans increased purchases of automobiles and a wide range of other goods, indicating that economic growth was on track to recover after the first quarter of sluggishness. The positive retail sales data helped reinforce investors’ expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates further this year. However, the data is probably not enough for the US central bank to initiate a rate hike right next month as inflation remains tame.
USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY D1 Technical Chart
USDJPY has bounced slightly from the support level at around 105.522 to as high as 108.880. The pair has been in a strongly bearish market since the red arrow appeared above the price. RSI is hovering at level 48 and pointing towards the overbought zone, signaling that the ground for an up-move is being formed. With the pressure of the red parabolics sar above, the price is expected to hit the resistance area at 110.564 before dropping back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 108.842 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 110.564 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 17, 2016
Early this week, Federal Bank of New York announced that manufacturing activity in New York witnessed a sharp decline according to a survey in May 2016. Having posed a nine-month high at 9.6 points in April, the Empire state manufacturing index suddenly plummeted to a reading of -9 in May, well below the forecast of 7.2 by economists.
After that, the greenback weakened against its peers. The dollar index DXY tumbled to 94.47. However, the US dollar is firming up today as markets have an eye on the minutes form the FOMC's April meeting, to gather clues of a rate hike at next month's FOMC meeting.
On Monday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney stated that the central bank is not likely to use a negative interest rate as has been done by the ECB or BOJ. With normal rate policy, they still have room for any adjustments if necessary.
By contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hinted that more rate cuts in the near future are possible as this economy is currently facing weak inflation. On May 03, RBA surprised markets by opting to lower the benchmark to 1.75% from the previous record low of 2.00%.
According to a quarterly report released by the Reverse Bank of New Zealand late yesterday, for the quarter ending in April 2016, NZ inflation over the next two years was estimated to stayed unchanged at 1.6%, a record low in the last 22 years.
In Asian trading session on Tuesday, crude oil prices rocketed to the highest level in six months as concerns of oversupply have faded due to recent disruptions in Nigeria and Venezuela. The global benchmark, Brent, extended its way up, rising to $49.50 per barrel, up 17 cents from the last settlement. Today, gold also edged up to $1279.98/ounce, 0.5% higher than its last close.

Technicals

GBPUSD

Fig. GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart
After hitting the support of 1.43271 yesterday, GBPUSD is surging up and rocketing towards overbought territory. The %K line (blue line) and the %D line (red line) are converging, and a reversal into a downtrend is hinted. The price is expected to retest the resistance of 1.45312 before pulling back. The signal trend indicator has suggested a short position since May 04.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.43913 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.44641 valid until May 20, 2016

EURJPY

Fig. EURJPY H4 Technical Chart
Currently, the yen is on its way to strengthening against the euro, putting downward pressure on the pair EURJPY. The pair is pulling back from the resistance of 123.515. The SMA 14 (green line) has already crossed below the SMA 21 (red line), indicating that bears are overshadowing the market. However, RSI (14) is hovering around the average. The price is expected to move sideways for a while before moving into a downtrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 122.864 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 123.127 valid until May 20, 2016

AUDNZD

Fig. AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart
RSI (14) has passed through the level 50 and is pointing upwards, implying that the bullishness is rising. AUDNZD is climbing up after reaching the support of 1.06819 formed on last Friday. The pair is expected to bounce back for some consolidation and then return into the current downtrend. The red arrow hanging over the price chart signals a selling position.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.07343 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.07629 valid until May 20, 2016

SILVER

Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart
Recently, SILVER has moved in an uncertain fashion within a wide range, with the current support and resistance at 16.781 and 17.559 respectively. The two moving averages have just crossed, giving no clear direction for the price movement. The commodity seems to inch up for several hours and then pull back. The trend indicator has signaled a down-move.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 17.277 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 17.390 valid until May 20, 2016

WTI

Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI has been extending its strongest uptrend in several months. The Stochastics chart shows that the commodity has dived into the overbought territory since some time now. However, a reversal into a downtrend seems unlikely anytime soon as the %K line (blue line) refuses to cross the %D line (red line). ADX (14) is heading up, indicating that the up-move is still very strong. The next resistance to test is 49.92.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 48.89 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 49.75 valid until May 20, 2016

DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
DAX opened today’s trading session with a big gap down and promptly covered this gap. The index attempted to break the level 50.0% of Fibonacci retracement but failed to close above this area. This level of Fibonacci is expected to now turn into a solid resistance. The index is expected to continue stumbling as a red arrow has already appeared above the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9760.21 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 9884.09 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Pound Stays Firm, Kiwi Mixed As Inflation Data Mixed

The Reverse Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Monday released its quarterly survey of inflation expectations with no immediately bright signals. Data for the quarter ending in April 2016 showed that economists’ estimation for inflation over the next 24 months still lingered around 1.6%, a 22-year record low. The recent readings haven’t provided any clues on probability that the NZ inflation rate can stabilize near the 2% target, in both the short-term and medium-term.
Facing the slowing pace of economic growth, the central bank is required to deploy further monetary easing to bolster inflation. The next rate cut is likely to be carried out soon, which in turn could weaken the Kiwi against other currencies.
In the UK, data from the Office for National Statistics indicated that instead of continuing a 0.5% rise, as in the previous month, the consumer prices index (CPI) for April just inched up 0.3%. The decline in air fares and clothing prices were supposed to be the main reason for the slower pace of the index. The core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, also did not meet economists’ forecast, rising by 1.2% only while the reading in March was 1.5%. All data are on year-on-year basis.
Also released today, input prices from UK manufacturing sector reported a drop of 6.5% in April, compared with a year earlier. In the month prior, this index fell by 6.1%(from a year ago). After eliminating purchases in food, beverage, tobacco and petroleum industries, core input prices slid 1.7% for the 12-month period ending in April 2016, compared with a decrease of 2.7% in March. Sterling is under continuous threat of weakening due to negative signals from British economic growth.
However, the pound has been supported by the results of UK poll yesterday showing that there were more people supporting continued membership of the European Union than those opting to leave.
NZDUSD

Fig. GBPNZD D1 Technical Chart
The DI+ reading currently is at 22.5149, far higher than the DI- reading, firmly suggesting a long position. ADX (14) stands at 33.4095, also showing a solid uptrend. Sterling is expected to strengthen against the kiwi, leading the pair GBPNZD to retest the resistance of 2.15030 formed on March 14. A breakout is highly expected as bulls are still encouraged by the green parabolics band moving below the prices.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.12775 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.14813 valid until May 20, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 18, 2016
According to the Labor Department report yesterday, US Consumer price index (CPI) for April recorded the biggest gain in over three years, advancing 0.4%, compared with an increase of 0.1% in the month before. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, did meet economists’ forecast by rising 0.2% last month. All data is on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Data from Statistics Canada released on May 17 showed that turnover from manufacturers continued to fall for the second month in March due to declines in sales of almost all industries, especially in transportation equipment and primary metals. The latest reading came in at $50.0 billion in March, dropping 0.9% from the preceding month. The forecast for manufacturing sales for March was for a 0.7% fall.
Late yesterday, Statistics New Zealand published total producer price outputs and inputs for the first quarter in 2016. The data came in with a drop of 0.2% in PPI output for the quarter ending in March 2016, compared with a 0.8% plunge in the previous period. PPI output also saw a slight decline in the last quarter, losing 1.0% from a 1.2% decrease previously. However, economists had expected positive readings for these indexes, instead of the negative readings that were actually reported.
In Japan, the economy grew better than expected in the first quarter of 2016 thanks to strong consumer and government spending. Reported by the Cabinet Office, the annual rate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the last quarter was at 1.7%. After the statement, the Nikkei share average surged up to 16,796.00, up 1.5% from the last close.
In the Asian trading session on Wednesday, oil prices remained firm, as supply cuts continued to support the market. Brent crude oil is currently trading at $49.66/barrel, the highest level in over 6 months. Meanwhile, the precious metal – gold – tumbled today, paring recent gains. Gold price slid 0.3% from the last settlement to $1274.75/oz.

Technicals

USDJPY

Fig. USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
After surging strongly from the support level at 106.406, USDJPY moved sideways between the range of 108.226 and 109.662 with the support of the green parabolics sar below. RSI is above level 50 and heading upwards, indicating that the buying trend is strong. The pair is expected to retest the resistance area at 109.662 soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 109.159 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 109.662valid until May 20, 2016

EURGBP

Fig. EURGBP H4 Technical Chart
EURGBP has fallen continuously from the zone of Fibonacci 23.6% to the area of Fibonacci 61.8%, where it has been moving sideways. RSI is hovering around level 35 and pointing downwards, suggesting that the pair is about to enter oversold territory. The price is expected to continue the current move for the rest of the day, then drop down and test the support level at 0.78000.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.78000 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78178 valid until May 20, 2016

CADCHF

Fig. CADCHF H4 Technical Chart
After witnessing a strong drop from as high as 0.77343, CADCHF has made some recovery and is currently hovering around the area of Fibonacci 50.0%. The pair seems to be getting close to the overbought territory as seen in the RSI staying at level 58 and heading up. The price is anticipated to continue its uptrend, hitting the Fibonacci 61.8% zone before reversing.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.75766 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.76138 valid until May 20, 2016

GOLD

Fig. GOLD H4 Technical Chart
Gold rocketed from its recent low around 1227.31 to as high as 1303.70, the highest level in a year. After that, the commodity has retreated and moved between the range of 1256.49 and 1285.67. RSI is staying at level 47 and seems to be heading down, indicating the bear move but its not completely confirmed yet. The price is expected to hit the area of Fibonacci 50.0% (around 1265.51) before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1265.51 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1275.29 valid until May 20, 2016

BRENT

Fig. BRENT H4 Technical Chart
Brent has been in a bullish market as seen in the green parabolics sar moving below the price chart since May 11. The commodity is at the highest level since the beginning of the year at as high as 49.64. RSI is about to hit level 70, indicating strong buying power. The price is likely to continue the current uptrend. Buying positions are encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 49.64 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 50.03 valid until May 20, 2016

FTSE
E:\Mai Anh\Anhr\FTSE.PNG
Fig. FTSE H4 Technical Chart
The red arrow along with the parabolics sar had appeared above the price some time ago, suggesting that the FTSE is in a downtrend. RSI is hovering around level 48 and heading down, indicating a bearish market formation. The index is anticipated to continue its current down-move, retesting the support level at 6055.11, created on April 5, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6055.11 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6135.45 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil Recovers On Falling US Crude Inventories

On Wednesday, oil witnessed a slight drop then quickly recovered due to market expectations regarding US Crude Oil Inventory data.
Early in the session, oil prices went down slightly after hitting the highest level in 6 months yesterday, as the impact of supply disruptions from Nigeria and Canada were offset by the rising supply from elsewhere.
According to data from Iran, oil exports are on track to recover faster than analysts had predicted. In particular, exports from this OPEC member are set to surge in to 2.1 million barrels per day in May, up nearly 60 percent in comparison with their level a year ago. This showed that Iran was trying to regain its market share in the battle with Saudi Arabia.
According to Ian Bremmer, the president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, Saudi Arabia is about to raise its oil production by as much as 1 million barrel per day in the next months to squeeze the Iranians.
On concerns of the continuous global glut, International Brent crude futures dropped 23 cents compared with their last settlement to as low as $49.05. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $48.15 per barrel, down 16 cents.
However, the price quickly regained its momentum in the European session due to market expectations of a fall in US crude oil inventories. The number of crude oil barrels held in inventory by commercial firms during the last week is expected to drop by 3.1 million barrels, after witnessing a draw down of 3.4 million barrels the week before.

Fig. WTI D1 Technical Chart
WTI is on course to soar as high as $49.15. The commodity has gained continuously since February 24 as seen in the green parabolics sar band appearing below the price chart. RSI is hovering around level 71, indicating that the price is in overbought territory. The price is anticipated to surge further as the buying power is still very strong.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 48.95 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on May 19, 2016
Overnight, the US dollar surged up strongly after minutes of the April FOMC Meeting were released. According to the minutes, the Federal Reserve Bank is likely to raise interest rates this summer if the economy remains on course. Markets also bet that there could be two rate hikes before the end of 2016.
The sterling was also boosted yesterday as a “Brexit” poll came in with results showing that the “Remain” campaign was in the lead ahead of the official referendum on June 23. Positive data from the UK Labor market on Wednesday further supported the pound’s recent strength. For the three months ending in March, the average earnings index (including bonuses) climbed up 2.0%, compared with a 1.9% increase in the preceding period to February. All the Data is on a yearly basis. Meanwhile, the employment rate in quarter ending in March was at 74.2%, a record high with the number of people in work at 31.6 million.
In Australia, the Bureau of Statistics late yesterday reported that the unemployment rate in April still held at 5.7%, a two-and-half-year low. The number of jobs created last month rose by 10,800. Economists had forecast a gain of 12,000 jobs.
On Thursday, oil prices fell sharply on the back of an increase in US crude stockpiles and output overhang from oil producers in Iran. In today’s Asian trading session, WTI Crude slid to $48.02/barrel, down 40 cents from the last close. Meanwhile, the gold price is currently hovering around $1258.22/oz, the last settlement on Wednesday.

Technicals

AUDUSD

Fig. AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Stochastics chart shows that AUDUSD has plunged into the oversold territory since a while now, and as extending its strong downtrend since the last one month or so. The signal trend indicator has suggested a short position since April 22, with a move of 5284 points up to now. This is a substantial move already Hence, the pair is expected to reverse into an uptrend after testing the support of 0.71575.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.71613 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.72024 valid until May 20, 2016

USDCHF

Fig. USDCHF H4 Technical Chart
The pair currently is moving gingerly around 0.98800 – the record high since May 03. RSI (14) stands at 74.4501, indicating that USDCHF has entered the overbought territory. However, the two moving averages still lie under the price chart, supporting the up-move in the price. The pair is anticipated to inch up for the rest of the day and may then pull back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.98500 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.98686 valid until May 20, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
GBPJPY is tumbling after hitting the resistance of 160.894 late yesterday. A green arrow has already appeared under the price chart two days ago, signaling a long position for the pair. The price seems to be dropping back for some consolidation and may test the support at level 23.6% of Fibonacci before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 159.585 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 160.114 valid until May 20, 2016

SILVER

Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart
SILVER has been extending a gradual downtrend since May 02, with the current resistance at 18.000. ADX (14) is heading up, to the reading of 31.0610, implying that the current trend is pretty strong. A selling position is encouraged by both the signal trend indicator and the readings of DI-, DI+.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 16.579 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 16.782 valid until May 20, 2016

WTI

Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart
The stochastics chart shows that the %K line (blue line) has already passed into the oversold territory, indicating that the pull back for some correction in WTI is about to end. The commodity is anticipated to return to the current uptrend soon and the level 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement seems to be turning into a solid support for prices. The green arrow suggests a buying position.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 48.30 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 48.97 valid until May 20, 2016

NASDAQ

Fig. NASDAQ H4 Technical Chart
After surging higher and attempting to close above the level 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement on May 10, the index has been fluctuating in a wide range. A reading near the average of RSI (14) gives no clear indication on the direction of the price movement yet. However, a short position is still encouraged by the red arrow hanging over the price chart since last Friday.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4279.19 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4328.66 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/GBP Drops As “Remain” Camp Leads, UK Retail Growth Solidifes

On Wednesday, the pound witnessed a sharp surge with recent opinion polls reporting that the “Remain In EU” camp has extended its lead in the upcoming UK referendum, over the last month — with 55% of sampled voters, voting for staying in and 37% for leaving. After the results were released, EUR/GBP took a sharp knock to as low as 0.76767 and finished the trading session at 0.7768, losing 0.67%.
Sterling has already found solid buying interest mid-week as UK employment and wage data beat analyst forecasts. According to the Office for National Statistics, data shows that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits actually fell by 2,400 to 737,800 while analysts had forecast a 4,300 rise. In addition, 44,000 more people were in work compared with the previous three months, bringing the number of employed to 31.58 million workers in total.
Earlier today, UK April Retail Sales reported an improvement of 1.3% compared to the last month’s figures, beating analysts’ forecast for a 0.6% rise. The better-than-expected data further relieves fears of the potential damage caused by ‘Brexit’ related uncertainty, ensuring that demand for the Pound will remain bullish for quite some time.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to suffer from inflation data that confirmed prices in the Eurozone still remained stagnant. Whereas U.S and UK inflation rates are climbing higher, negative rates of price growth in the euro zone were reported earlier today. This has increased the possibility of a future interest rate cut in Europe, weakening the euro’s strength.
With the Fed minutes now behind us, focus shifts towards today’s release of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Account from its previous meeting. This is very similar to the minutes from the FOMC meetings. The data will be closely scanned for hints on future policy opinions within the ECB. The account could boost the appeal of the Euro, if policymakers are shown to have expressed mildly dovish sentiments. Greater signs of hawkishness would undermine the likelihood of further policy easing in the near future, prompting the single currency to rally.
However, if there are continued suggestions that interest rates could go lower still, the Euro could slump across the board.

Fig EURGBP D1 Technical Chart
After plunging wildly to 0.76767, the pair seems to be continually bearish and is currently trading at 0.76608. RSI is 30.22, close to the oversold territory, indicating strong selling power. The price action is expected to continue the current downtrend until it reaches the support level at 0.75630.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77590 valid until May 22
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.75630 valid until May 22

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 20, 2016
On Friday, the Japanese market stayed flat as investors kept cautious ahead of the G7 meeting, while prospects for another US rate hike in June subdued bullish appetite. The Nikkei share average stayed at around 16,645.47 in morning trade, gaining 1.5% for the week.
During the Asian session today, the dollar hovered around 110.00 yen after approaching the highest level in 3 weeks at 110.39 yen, as New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley indicated the strength of the US economy, is enough for a rate increase in June or July.
Yesterday, the Canadian dollar dropped against the US dollar, reaching the lowest level in six weeks, due to rising expectations of a Fed rate hike in June. This has supported the greenback and put downward pressure on commodities too. The Bank of Canada is expected to express a dovish tone in the policy meeting in May as the wildfire in Alberta has disrupted oil production.
The market is waiting for Canadian retail sales data for March and inflation data for April - both set for release on Friday. The total value of sales at the retail level is predicted to drop by 0.7% in March after witnessing a 0.4% rise in February. The core CPI, measuring the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items, is forecast to rise by 0.1% in April from March’s 0.7%.
On Wednesday, Swiss bank UBS has raised its economic growth outlook for Germany by revising its growth projection to 1.6% for 2016, from 1.4% expected earlier, helping build investors’ confidence about Germany’s economic condition. The bank also stated that the key driver of the country’s growth would be domestic demand and consumption within the country.

Technicals
EURUSD

Fig. EURUSD H4 Technical Chart
EURUSD has been tiptoeing around since a while, awaiting some clues and statements from the two-day G7 meeting. After hitting the eight-month high of 1.16163 on May 03, the pair has fallen strongly. However, ADX (14) has just reversed, indicating that the down move is getting weaker. The price is expected to move sideways for a short period of time and then continue falling.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.11265 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11787 valid until May 20, 2016

GBPJPY

Fig. GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart
Climbing up as high as 161.610 yesterday, GBPJPY has slid down and has been locked between the range of the level 0 and 23.6% of Fibonacci retracement. The signal trend indicator has suggested a long position since this Tuesday, implying that the pair may surge higher. For the rest of the day, GBPJPY is anticipated to continue the stable trend and the level 23.6% is currently acting as a support for the price.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 160.917 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 161.507 valid until May 20, 2016

USDCAD

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
The Loonie is on its way to take back some ground against the greenback since the pair USDCAD tested the resistance of 1.31558 on Thursday. However, RSI (14) hovers around the reading of 62, indicating that the bulls are still holding out. The pair is anticipated to pull back for some consolidation and may then push back higher, taking support from the two moving averages below.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.31145 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.31532 valid until May 20, 2016

COPPER

Fig. COPPER H4 Technical Chart
COPPER reached the support of 2.0366 on May 19th, and is currently bouncing back, breaking the one-month downward sloping trendline. A short position has been suggested since May 03, with a move of 1435 points up to now. This is a significant move already. Hence, the price is expected to continue surging back up now, creating an uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.0726 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0915 valid until May 20, 2016

DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
Yesterday, a grave-stone doji appeared on the price chart after a long down candle, reflecting that the bull is coming in and driving back the bear’s power. In the near future, the index is expected to extend its current up-move, retesting the resistance of 9963.71 formed two days ago.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9836.75 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 9903.56 valid until May 20, 2016

SP500

Fig. SP500 H4 Technical Chart
SP500 is bouncing back from the support of 2024.27, a two-month low. The distance between the two moving averages is shrinking, signaling that the bears are losing steam. The index is currently attempting to close above the level 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. However, a red arrow still hangs over the price chart, encouraging a short position. The price is expected to test the resistance at level 38.2% of the Fibonacci retracement, and may fall back thereafter.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2039.61 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2045.75 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

CAD Falls, USD Supported As Fed Signals Hawkish Stance

Fears about supply disruptions in Canada and Nigeria has been supporting crude oil prices higher. In particular, WTI crude inched up 1% to a high of $48.64 per barrel, up 5.3% for the week. Brent crude hit $49.17 per barrel, adding 0.7% from the last settlement, witnessing a 2.8% weekly gain.
Yesterday, Canada’s Suncor Energy extended the force majeure which prevented oil shipment from its Syncrude facility. The decision came while the wildfires in Canada’s oil sands region have been reducing output capacity by more than 1 million barrels per day. In Nigeria, ExxonMobil, an American multinational oil and gas corporation, noted that the operations at Qua Iboe crude oil terminal were negatively affected by criminal activity. News reports also suggested that the Qua Iboe terminal had been closed, and its employees evacuated, which helped lift Brent and WTI further.
Canadian retail sales, that gauge the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, is forecast to drop by 0.7% in March after witnessing a 0.4% rise in February. Retail sector activity accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.
On Friday, the US dollar was heading for a third week of gains against the basket of major currencies, due to rising expectations of another interest rate hike this year. New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley, a permanent voting member of the central bank policy committee, has stated that almost all Fed officials indicated their tightening views on the monetary policy and the bank was on track for a rate increase in June or July, which the US economy has been strong enough to cope with.
The dollar index, measuring the strength of the US dollar against a basket of other major currencies, stayed at 95.297 after hitting 95.502 overnight, the highest level since March 29. The index is still poised for 0.7% weekly gain.

Fig. USDCAD D1 Technical Chart
USDCAD has escaped from 1.24548, the lowest level in nearly a month to as high as 1.31243. The pair is in a bull market as seen in the green parabolics sar supporting below the price movement. RSI is heading into the overbought territory at level 64, suggesting strong buying power. The pair is expected to test the psychological resistance at around 1.32155, formed on August 5, 2015.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.31129 valid until May 20, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.32155 valid until May 20, 2016

 

[katycat]

Dollar Remains Bullish After Positive Economic Data

Last week, markets entered stirs after the minutes of FOMC meeting in April has been released, which showed that the central bank is likely to increase the benchmark rate as early as next month and two rate hikes by the end of this year are reasonable possibility. After the statements on May 18, the US dollar extended its up-move, strengthening against its rivals. The dollar index DXY edged up strongly, hitting the reading of 95.49, a seven-week high. Before the minutes, investors had held a solid expectation that FED would not raise the interest rate too soon as the slow growth in global economy.
Meanwhile, the two-day meeting of G-7 ended on Friday gave some clues that most of officials agreed not to use currency devaluation to spur economic growth as grave drawbacks may come. The European Central Bank stated at this meeting that other stimulus measures but further rate cuts may be applied if required. The Bank of Japan committed not to lower the interest rate anymore, but an increase in sales tax may be deployed instead.
Early this week, the Office for National Statistics reported that British economy did not grow as strongly as expected. For April, the annual rate for consumer price index (CPI) just inched up 0.3%, while analysts had forecast a 0.5% rise in the previous month. After eliminating food, energy, alcohol and tobacco items, the so-called core CPI y/y rose 1.2% last month, compared with the reading of 1.5% in March.
By contrast, US economy grew for a faster pace as CPI data published on Tuesday came in with an increase of 1.1% for one year ending April, better than the 0.9% increase for one year ending March. The core CPI for the start of second quarter in 2016 also climbed up 2.1% on yearly basis.
In Australia, the Bureau of Statistics on May 18 announced that there were 10,800 jobs added in April and the jobless rate still stayed at a two-and-half-year low as 5.7%. The positive data from labor market signaled a slight recovery in this nation’s growth.
The market is awaiting the speech of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens at the Trans-Tasman Business Circule boardroom briefing held in May 23. As the head of the central bank, he has large influences over the monetary policy of Australia than anyone else. The Aussie is expected to witness volatility during his speech as investors try to catch clues of interest rate.
The New Zealand trade balance, measuring the difference in value between imported and exported goods during April, will be announced on Tuesday. The economic surplus is forecast to be 25 million dollars after staying at 117 million dollars the month before. Compared with the same period one year earlier, the overseas merchandise trade surplus posed at 123 million dollars. New Zealand is supposed to face significant slowdown in economy.
Another important event next week is the Bank of Canada policy conference on May 25, held 8 times per year. This is a primary way that the central bank uses to talk about the interest rate policy with the market, resulting in their rate decisions and economic commentaries.
The number of US people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week is predicted to be 275,000, down 1.7% compared with the week before. This is one of the crucial indicators of the economy because it is a major consideration for officials steering the country’s monetary policy. The US dollar seems to remain its strong position in the market next week thanks to the support of positive economic data.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on May 23, 2016
Oil prices dropped significantly on Monday due to a stronger greenback and concerns on global oversupply. OPEC member Iran stated that it was planning to raise its oil export capacity to 2.2 million barrels in the summer and has no intention of cutting production and exports, indicating further abundance on the production and supply side.
Brent futures were trading at $48.54 per barrel, losing 18 cents compared with the last settlement. Likewise, WTI crude futures were down 26 cents to as low as $48.15 per barrel after losing 41 cents in the previous session.
Today, the dollar fell against its Japanese counterpart despite falling Tokyo stocks. Japan reported a larger-than-expected trade surplus in April. The greenback was trading at 109.720 JPY, down 0.5% from 110.59 - the highest level in 3 weeks, that was reached on Friday. According to the data on Monday, the Japanese trade balance in April was 823.5 billion yen, beating market forecasts of 492.8 billion yen. This is the third consecutive month that Japan has witnessed a trade surplus. More goods exported than imported is expected to help Japan improve its manufacturing sector and “rescue” the yen from another rate cut.
Last week, the dollar was strongly supported by the speech from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley that the US economy could be strong enough to cope with a rate hike in June or July. The comment has helped reinforce investor belief that another interest rate increase is totally possible. Today, the market is awaiting speeches from a number of Fed officials including James Bullard, John Williams and Patrick Harker for more clues about the next monetary policy move.
Gold stayed steady on Monday on a weaker dollar and solid Asian stocks. The commodity hovered around the lowest level in three weeks of 1242.53 on expectations that the Fed will raise its interest rates as early as June.

Technicals

GBPUSD

Fig. GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart
GBPUSD has dropped to as low as 1.44811 after hitting the resistance level at 1.46654. RSI is lingering around level 43 and on track to form a downtrend. Despite the support of the parabolics sar movement below, the pair is expected to retest the resistance area at 1.46654, created on May 19, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.43983 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.44811 valid until May 27, 2016

EURJPY

Fig. EURJPY H4 Technical Chart
EURJPY has been moving in a range between the levels of 122.569 and 124.178 since the beginning of the month. RSI is staying at level 40 and pointing down, indicating that the pair is about to enter the oversold territory. Despite the green arrow’s buying signal, the price is expected to retest the support level at 122.569, the lowest level in more than 10 days.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 122.569 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 122.844 valid until May 27, 2016

AUDNZD

Fig. AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart
AUDNZD has been in a bearish market since the appearance of the red arrow above the price movement. The pair is about to hit oversold territory as seen in the RSI staying at level 31 and pointing down. With the pressure of the moving average above, the price is forecast to continue going down further. A bearish position is encouraged.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.05854 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.06322 valid until May 27, 2016

SILVER

Fig. SILVER H4 Technical Chart
After moving sideways around 16.484 for 4 days, silver dropped to the lowest level in more than a month at 16.344. RSI is at 29, indicating that the pair is in the oversold territory. With the pressure of the red parabolics sar above, the price is anticipated to break through the trough of 16.344 and test the next support at 16.121, created on March 18.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 16.121 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 16.365 valid until May 27, 2016

WTI

Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI has been in a bullish market with support from the green parabolics sar movement below. However, RSI is staying at level 45 and pointing to the oversold zone, suggesting strong selling power. With the pressure of the short-term EMA above, the commodity is expected to hit the support level at 47.28 then bounce back and continue the overall uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 47.28 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 47.98 valid until May 27, 2016

DAX

Fig. DAX H4 Technical Chart
DAX is hovering around the zone of Fibonacci retracement 38.2% with the support of the moving average below. RSI is at level 56 and pointing up, suggesting a strong buying trend. Despite the red parabolics sar movement above, the price is anticipated to hit the area of Fibonacci 50.0% (around 10,108.63) before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 9972.25 valid until May 27, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 10108.63 valid until May 27, 2016