CV's, CV's, CV's

[Kingwizz]

Good Start to the Day so far. FilmFestival, 4:30. Backed at 4.5. If I wouldn't have had that blasted lie-in I would have jumped on at 22s! I reakon it has still got a way to go from 3.5. Though it is often a lot harder to shorten favourites. Today would be a combination of Big money & huge mispricing. Really unusual.

 

[Kingwizz]

When do I leave. Ahhhh! Out at 2.3! Talk about sticking with the guns! £95, I'll have that!

 

[simcom]

Nice one! Are you using your tipster service subscription to signal these trades?

 

[Kingwizz]

Cheers mate. I use a combination of Tipsters which I know will fall in price & then filter the selections to those with value. I had my first loss yesterday in ages. Prince of Wales, backed Pipedreamer, 12 then layed off at 13.5 for a loss. Luckily hedged on the favourite (Duke of Marmalade). I was expecting it to get backed in a big way. I wasn't expecting the volume of money on the favourite that there was.

After viewing sportinglife:

£45000-£30000 £3000-£2000 £13750-£10000 (x2) £11000-£8000 £5500-£4000 (x5) £4125-£3000 £2750-£2000 (x9) £2200-£1600 £1100-£800 (x5) £100000-£80000 £25000-£20000 £10000-£8000 (x2) £1250-£1000 £3000-£2500 (x2) £55000-£50000 £11000-£10000 (x2) £4400-£4000 (x3) £2200-£2000 £1100-£1000 (x4) £1000-£1000

That's a fair bit of money & so I've decided to stay out today. I'm thinking of putting my stakes up relitavley soon. What's so great about trading is that yesterday, I only lost £11. Where-as last week all my bets shortened and the lowest profit was £35. Average win around £50-£60 & there is usually only around 1 drifter in 10 bets, & the typical loss is around £10-£15. So really I am doing to equivalent of hitting a 5/1 winner 80-90% of the time (In terms of risk/reward). It's when you see trading in this view that people realize it is much more appealing than backing.

 

[Victor90]

What's so great about trading is that yesterday, I only lost £11.

Umm....its not really trading....Trading is exchaning someting (money) for something else (stock, CFDs and so on) that is just gambling. But gambling with a system. And im really impressed by you!

 

[simcom]

Umm....its not really trading....Trading is exchaning someting (money) for something else (stock, CFDs and so on) that is just gambling. But gambling with a system. And im really impressed by you!

I have to disagree I'm afraid, I think that using Betfair can be classed as trading as much as that on the financial markets. In effect on Betfair you are trading risk (i.e. buying risk with the intention of covering this later at a more favourable price, or vice versa). There are many successful city traders who have started operating on Betfair as it offers fairly unique opportunities.

Plus, the way some people 'trade' the financials equates to little more than gambling in my book!

 

[simcom]

What's so great about trading is that yesterday, I only lost £11. Where-as last week all my bets shortened and the lowest profit was £35. Average win around £50-£60 & there is usually only around 1 drifter in 10 bets, & the typical loss is around £10-£15. So really I am doing to equivalent of hitting a 5/1 winner 80-90% of the time (In terms of risk/reward). It's when you see trading in this view that people realize it is much more appealing than backing.

Exactly - phrased in the traditional risk/reward terms it looks too good to be true! I tend to do it the other way around (use laying tipsters to find drifters which I lay to begin with), but the principle is the same really.

Just need to always remember to close my bets out before the races start, lest I be hit with a huge liability!

 

[grantx]

You two gentleman seem to be doing pretty well without bothering about the markets. Impressive.

As you say Simcom - trading, gambling: what's the difference? And who cares as long as it pays.

Grant.

 

[simcom]

Thanks Grant. I fear we have strayed far off the original topic of the thread though!

Have you any experience of Betfair yourself?

 

[grantx]

Simcom,

May be strayed but certainly more interesting.

Grant.

 

[Kingwizz]

Sorry that I have not been a part of this fascinating forum for a while, for some reason the new post alerts have been going into my junk mail. Yes, completely agree with simcom. Trading odds, you are effectivley taking out a Future on a horse, at the price achieved, with an agreement to deliver X amount if the horse loses (or wins). The way I explain it to friends is that, say I backed a horse at 8/1 & it shortened into 4/1. I am "Selling my bet", which causes a profit either way.

Exactly - phrased in the traditional risk/reward terms it looks too good to be true! I tend to do it the other way around (use laying tipsters to find drifters which I lay to begin with), but the principle is the same really.

Just need to always remember to close my bets out before the races start, lest I be hit with a huge liability!

I agree that laying then backing can also be profitable. Though in terms of the underlying risk originally taken & the fact that profits are dramatically less laying then backing (instead of vica versa) I try & stay out of this. To emphasize my point, say you backed a horse at 8/1 for £100. It then shortens to 4/1. You have made a guaranteed profit of £100. If Laying; say you lay at 4/1 for £100 (effectivley £400), then back at an increased price of 8/1, you can in-fact only guaranteed £50. Also, in backing the maximum you can lose is your stake. Where-as in laying first you can lose massive amounts more than your stake if a trade goes wrong.

Even though I use Fairbot to Green-up, I recommend this calculator to prove my point;

Chromaweb - Arb Calculator

 

[grantx]

Simcom,

I tried the laying odds system a couple of years ago without success (lost about £100) but my understanding and approach was very basic, possibly naive. Research of tipsters, etc never entered the equation. Forums didn't really help so I was effectively stranded as to method.

I must say, though yourself and kingwizz have rekindled an interest. Fairbot looks a pretty impressive programme but a good understanding of the basics would be necessary which I don't have.

Grant.

 

[Kingwizz]

Just traded on Aeroplane for £50 profit. Mad Rush in the 5 @ Ascot looks worth a trade.

 

[Kingwizz]

By the way Grant, Never lay horses unless you are laying odds on or in-play (or non-triers - lol). Stick to trading, or backing if you have a skill.

 

[grantx]

Kingwizz,

You're right - better the devil you know.

Grant.

 

[simcom]

I agree that laying then backing can also be profitable. Though in terms of the underlying risk originally taken & the fact that profits are dramatically less laying then backing (instead of vica versa) I try & stay out of this.

I agree that backing first is generally more preferable. I suppose it is just my personal experience that has led me to find it easier to pick big drifters than big shorteners, so I have been in the habit of doing this.

Fairbot looks good. Don't have any experience of it myself (I use Bet Angel Pro) but I will download the free trial to see how it compares. Bet Angel is fairly expensive so if I could reduce my costs I'd be happy!

 

[simcom]

Kingwizz,

You're right - better the devil you know.

Grant.

I think you're right there, Grant. The vast majority of the time I've been on Betfair (at least the last couple of years), I've been trying out strategies which never really suited my experience or personality. I guess it comes down to the cliched (but true) trading mantra that one should do something that fits their own preferences, because what works well for one person may be a total disaster for another.

Only in the last few months have I finally come to any sort of a proper plan of action :innocent:

 

[Kingwizz]

That said, I did a little Acca yesterday & won over 300k. Sh!t happens