Currency trading (Sept. 18th > 22nd)

[wasp]

SUNDAY:

9/17/2006 23:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY)

MONDAY:

9/18/2006 09:00 EU Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY)
9/18/2006 12:30 US Current Account Balance (2Q)
9/18/2006 12:30 CAN Int'l Securities Transactions
9/18/2006 13:00 US Net Foreign Security Purchases
9/18/2006 17:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index

TUESDAY:

9/19/2006 09:00 EU ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment)
9/19/2006 09:00 EU German ZEW Survey
9/19/2006 09:00 EU German Zew Survey
9/19/2006 11:00 CAN Consumer Price Index (YoY)
9/19/2006 12:30 US Producer Price Index (YoY)
9/19/2006 12:30 US Housing Starts
9/19/2006 12:30 US Building Permits
9/19/2006 21:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence

WEDNESDAY:

9/20/2006 00:30 AUS Westpac MI Leading Index (July)
9/20/2006 01:00 AUS DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM)
9/20/2006 07:00 JPN Convenience Store Sales (YoY)
9/20/2006 08:30 UK Bank of England Minutes
9/20/2006 08:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR)
9/20/2006 08:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
9/20/2006 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (YoY)
9/20/2006 08:30 UK M4 Sterling Lending (BP)
9/20/2006 08:30 UK CML, BBA Mortgage Lending Figs
9/20/2006 11:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
9/20/2006 12:30 CAN Leading Indicators MoM
9/20/2006 12:30 CAN Wholesale Sales MoM
9/20/2006 18:15 US FOMC Rate Decision Expected
9/20/2006 22:45 NZ Current Account Balance (2Q)
9/20/2006 23:50 JPN Merchnds Trade Balance

THURSDAY:

9/21/2006 01:30 AUS Reserve Bank of Aus August Bulletin
9/21/2006 01:30 AUS New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)
9/21/2006 03:00 NZ NZ Credit Card Spend for Aug
9/21/2006 08:00 EU Euro-Zone Current Account nsa
9/21/2006 10:00 UK U.K. CBI September Industrial Trends
9/21/2006 12:30 CAN Retail Sales MoM
9/21/2006 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
9/21/2006 12:30 US Continuing Claims
9/21/2006 14:00 US Leading Indicators
9/21/2006 16:00 US Philadelphia Fed.
9/21/2006 22:45 NZ Visitor Arrivals
9/21/2006 23:50 JPN BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ)
9/21/2006 23:50 JPN BSI Large All Industry (QoQ)
9/21/2006 23:50 JPN All Industry Activity Index

FRIDAY:

9/22/2006 08:30 UK UK Car Prod. S.A. (3mth/3mth)
9/22/2006 08:30 UK UK Car Prod. S.A. (3mth/yr ago)
9/22/2006 09:00 EU Industrial New Orders (YoY)

 

[Baruch]

A whole forum about news trading:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/forumdisplay.php?f=73

 

[wasp]

A whole forum about news trading:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/forumdisplay.php?f=73

You're right :|

 

[City Bound]

The calander is good but the discussion on news is rubbish. Everyone on there seems to be loss making! This thread (repeated) is soooo much better.

 

[wasp]

Fed rate 'pause' to morph into a long term hold

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee is expected to vote to keep rates steady at 5.25% next Wednesday, lengthening their "pause" in August into a full-fledged holding pattern, economists said.

Many Fed watchers see monetary policy remaining steady for the next three months at least, with a chance of another rate hike in December. But this is by no means a certainty. Many think the next rate move will be an easing sometime in 2007.

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its Aug. 8 meeting, after two years of steady quarter-point hikes.

"Everything the Fed said in deciding to stand aside at the last meeting in August still holds true," said Avery Shenfield, senior economist at CIBC World Markets. "There are signs of a slowdown, and inflation is still uncomfortably high. And there are expectations that the slowing growth should take care of inflation."

The Fed is also free to hold rates steady as financial markets are not demanding a rate hike, said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.

John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp., said the Fed will hold rates steady because it remains uncertain about the direction of the economy.

"We are just at the phase of the business cycle where you are not sure how much the economy is slowing," Silvia said.

A key area of uncertainty remains the degree of weakness in the housing market and how will this spillover into consumer spending.
While there have been recent signs of a slowing economy, "trends do not point to further weakening," said Mickey Levy, economist at Bank of America.

Lower gasoline prices will support higher consumer spending later this year, Levy said.

Core inflation looks slightly better than it did at the last FOMC meeting, rising 0.2% in July and August after a string of 0.3% gains earlier in the year. But inflation remains above the Fed's comfort zone of a 1-2% reading in core inflation.

Don't be surprised if the Fed tries to sound hawkish in its statement released after the meeting, economists agreed.
The Fed will talk tough because it "still wants the drag of higher interest rates to work its way through the economy to calm inflation pressures" and doesn't want rates to rally, said Shenfeld.
But Silvia said the Fed just wants to reassure the markets that the central bank is serious about inflation.

Richmond Fed president Jeffrey Lacker is expected to dissent from the majority vote in favor of hiking rates again. Lacker said in a television interview recently that nothing had changed his view that another rate hike is needed to guard against inflation.
Shenfeld said he does not expect any more rate hikes.

Steve Ricchiuto, chief economist at ABN Amro, still expects the Fed to hike rates again in December. The slowdown underway is going to bottom out in the fourth quarter, he said. "There is going to be a sustained slowdown, but it is not going to be deep enough or long enough to abate the inflationary pressures that have accumulated in the economy," Ricchiuto said.

 

[wasp]

Dollar hits 7-week high vs. euro, yen stable before G7

Swiss franc tumbles to 4-month low vs. greenback

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar rose to a seven-week high against the euro and traded little changed versus the yen Friday, as traders prepared themselves for a meeting in Singapore of the Group of Seven central bankers and finance ministers this weekend.

The yen rose versus the euro after French Finance Minister Thierry Breton said that the euro is "fully valued" and that inflation in the eurozone is well contained, said Brian Dolan, director of research at Forex.com, a division of Gain Capital.

"The most proximate catalyst for [the weakness in the euro] has been French finance minister's comments...suggesting that interest rates in the eurozone will not need to move as high as the market is looking," Dolan said.

Meanwhile, "going into the G7 meeting, the market expectation is that there's not going to be any criticism of the yen," he said. However, "if there were to be any mention of the yen, it'll be very negative for the euro/yen and dollar/yen." The market is preparing for the "worst case scenario."

Late in New York, the dollar was quoted at 117.56 yen compared with 117.51 yen late Thursday. The euro changed hands at $1.2661, compared with $1.2728, after touching $1.2628, the lowest level since July 26. On the week, the dollar advanced about 0.1% versus the euro and 0.6% against the yen.
The British pound traded at $1.8767, compared with $1.8866. The dollar was last at 1.2562 Swiss francs compared with 1.2563 francs, after touching $1.2621 francs, the highest level since April 27.The euro fetched 148.79 yen compared with 149.58 yen. See live foreign exchange rates.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a handful of the world's major currencies, rose as high as 86.17, the highest level since July 26.Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at The Bank of New York, said the dollar "remains supported by technical factors, despite evidence this week of a widening trade deficit and easing inflationary pressures."

G7 risk

"G7 communiqué and press briefings will start the week off with either a bang or a dull thud," said Dolan. "The risk is that the G7 may step-up the language calling for an immediate revaluation of the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies," said Woolfolk.
But Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said "there are generally low expectations for the statement that will emerge from the G7 this weekend."
"At most the market expects a repeat of the April statement. No one really seems to expect that Japan will be singled out," he said.
The dollar and euro are expected to "bounce back significantly" against the yen next week if market expectation materializes, Dolan said.

Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist at FXCM, agreed.
"Unless the ministers produce an aggressive communiqué calling for meaningful rebalancing of Asian currency exchange rates, the yen will continue to flounder as carry traders will dominate trade in the absence of any catalyst to trigger a short covering rally," he said, in a note.

China: a different story

China is a different story, BBH's Chandler said. If there is a consensus about anything in the G7 statement, "surely it is that China should adopt more flexible capital markets and let the yuan appreciate," he said.

Speaking on the sidelines of the G7 meeting, Toshihiko Fukui, the head of the Bank of Japan, said the G7 needs to discuss how to sustain global growth and discuss currencies in a global context, according to analysts at ABN Amro.

China needs to accelerate its currency flexibility process, said Canada's Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. He also said that more flexibility in Asian currencies is needed, according to ABN.

The Japanese currency jumped to a three-month high against the greenback in late April, after a G7 statement said greater exchange-rate flexibility is desirable in emerging economies, especially China.

Core CPI as expected

The U.S. currency briefly lost strength after a government report showed consumer price inflation moderated in August as gasoline and home ownership costs rose at a slower pace.

The consumer price index increased 0.2% in August after a 0.4% gain in July, while prices excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the second straight month. The 0.2% gain in the core CPI matched expectations, while the headline CPI came in one tenth of a percentage point below expectations of MarketWatch's survey of economists. See full story.

Separately, manufacturing activity in the New York area held steady at a moderate rate in September, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index rose to 13.8 in September, in line with forecasts. See full story.
Elsewhere, industrial output fell by 0.1%, while capacity utilization dropped slightly in August, to 82.4% from 82.7% in July, the Federal Reserve said.

Also on Friday, the University of Michigan said consumer sentiment improved in September. The consumer sentiment index rose to 84.4 in September from 82.0 in August. Economists had expected sentiment to rise to 83.6. After 17 straight meetings in which it implemented quarter-percentage-point increases in benchmark interest rates, the Fed held interest rates steady at 5.25% on Aug. 8. The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting panel, meets Wednesday.

With the market overwhelmingly expecting the Fed to remain on hold, "the risk is for the accompanying Fed statement to highlight threats to prices stability that will raise the probability of a further rate hike later this year," said Bank of New York's Woolfolk.
Franc remains under pressure

At the same time, the Swiss franc continued to underperform, touching a more than four-month low against the greenback, after the Swiss National Bank on Thursday lowered its inflation forecasts to 1.1% in 2007 and 1.6% in 2008.

The SNB hiked its target rate to 1.75% from 1.5% Thursday, as expected. The central bank makes it clear that further gradual normalization of policy is to continue as long as growth is in line with expectations.

 

[wasp]

higher

Not until the weekend and I get the chance to sit down and have a proper butchers, which of course is after starting the thread and placing my vote, that I see this!

Could we be on too see new highs over the next few weeks after all?

 

[hornblower]

wasp
your chart shows ,
that we have completed a the 4th wave and started on the 5th wave up , I think!
I hope !!
wearing L plates as far as elliott wave is concerned

dc may be able to tell us tomorrow

thanks for all your work setting up the tread each week

kind regards
hornblower

 

[wasp]

wasp
your chart shows ,
that we have completed a the 4th wave and started on the 5th wave up , I think!
I hope !!
wearing L plates as far as elliott wave is concerned

dc may be able to tell us tomorrow

thanks for all your work setting up the tread each week

kind regards
hornblower

A pleasure Hornblower,

There are plenty of forums and places you can listen and watch people call trades and if you sign up enough signal providers you'd get to see them all day long. IMO it makes for a pointless exercise unless you need someone else to call your trades for you. I have no problems with people calling trades but its nice to have a discussion about the market too. If not for that, I wouldn't be here.

As for the chart. Never really learnt the whole elliot wave malarkly, it was more a case of trendlines and S/R forming the triangles and the rising wedge... I think!

Now I have my intraday strat set up on API I am concentrating on trying to make my way in cable through price alone (patterns et al) so you may see some bizzarre musings from me on here!

Cheers

wasp

 

[hornblower]

A pleasure Hornblower,

There are plenty of forums and places you can listen and watch people call trades and if you sign up enough signal providers you'd get to see them all day long. IMO it makes for a pointless exercise unless you need someone else to call your trades for you. I have no problems with people calling trades but its nice to have a discussion about the market too. If not for that, I wouldn't be here.

As for the chart. Never really learnt the whole elliot wave malarkly, it was more a case of trendlines and S/R forming the triangles and the rising wedge... I think!

Now I have my intraday strat set up on API I am concentrating on trying to make my way in cable through price alone (patterns et al) so you may see some bizzarre musings from me on here!

Cheers

wasp

I trade from 7 am to 4.30pm its always nice to have a bit of company
as trading is a solitary business

 

[rav700]

Current open price =1.8811
Long order @1.8812
Stop=1.8795
Limits1 =1.8822
Limits2 =1.8833
Limits3 =1.8844

Happy Trading Guys
Best of lucks

 

[rav700]

Current open price =1.8811
Long order @1.8812
Stop=1.8795
Limits1 =1.8822
Limits2 =1.8833
Limits3 =1.8844

Happy Trading Guys
Best of lucks

Order still not executed.....

 

[wasp]

Ok, gone long on NOK from 5150 and short cable at 8830... lets see how my PA works out!!!

looking for circa 700 on cable and 5450 on NOK with a 25 and 75 pip stop respectively


EDIT : I 'think' going by the daily chart we will see a return to the up trend line and form a double bootm around 700 and then head for new highs.

As for NOK its more a stab in the dark at a possible channel forming and the support holding.


EDIT2: Moved NOK stop to +1 and target back to 400 (no need to be greedy now!)

 

[rav700]

Current open price =1.8811
Long order @1.8812
Stop=1.8795
Limits1 =1.8822
Limits2 =1.8833
Limits3 =1.8844

Happy Trading Guys
Best of lucks

20 pips in the bag for the day so far....

Rav=+20

Happy Trading

 

[dc2000]

Mrng chaps
Still holding my long from Friday afternoon, its probably going to be a boring week for me unless we can race to target over the next 2 days

 

[ChowClown]

Morning all, in the wings waiting for a bo entry and forward testing an hrly swinger, currently long from the 7am bar at 8816. Stop 8795. Fib target exits.

 

[dc2000]

Time for tea n biscuits

Its a long way to the top if ya wana Rock n Roll

 

[wasp]

Time for tea n biscuits

Its a long way to the top if ya wana Rock n Roll

tea, biscuits, lunch, dinner and supper DC, its a very long way when its going to go down first! :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

1. Monday, September 18th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. current account balance coming out. This report comes out only 4 times per year, once per quarter, and I've never really seen it move the market that much because it didn't really deviate that much. Of course, in my opinion, if it really deviates A LOT, it will move the dollar related pairs, but since there is no history of how much is enough to move it, this report is riskier to trade than most others. But I am going to set very logical pairs, which I think would really affect the dollars. The chances of these triggers being hit are slim to none, but if it happens, I really believe this could potentially be a good trade. Current account is expected at -214 billion, with prior number at -208.7 billion. Logically speaking, I think if it comes out at -180 billion or less negative, that would mean that U.S. significantly decreased debt since last quarter, and it will probably be good for the dollar. Or if it comes out at -250 billion or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, because they would've gained A LOT of debt within last quarter. I think if the number comes out within my set parameters, that would be pretty shocking, and the GBP/USD would react by about 50 pips. So let me recap, if the number comes out at -250 billion or more negative, I will go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -180 billion or less negative, I will go short on GBP/USD. The possibilities of my triggers being hit are slim to none, but if they hit, that should be a good trade.

2. Monday, September 18th, 2006 (9:00 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. TIC report coming out. Of course there is a possibility that if the current account comes out crazily deviating, that would partially set a tone on what I am going to do on the TIC report. But I can't predict what current account will do. So assuming that current account comes out within 5 billion of expected number, which means it won't do anything crazy, here is how I am going to trade this report. TIC report is pretty unanimously expected at 70 billion. Sometimes consensus on this report varies a lot, so I am very happy that this time, the consensus is pretty firm. If the report comes out at 49 billion or below, that should be bad for the dollar, so I will go long on GBP/USD. If the consensus comes out at 100 billion or above, that should be good for the dollar, so I will go short on GBP/USD. If these triggers are hit, I am expecting a move of at least 30 pips on the pound, and very likely a move of 50 pips.

 

[Priceman]

1. Monday, September 18th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. current account balance coming out. This report comes out only 4 times per year, once per quarter, and I've never really seen it move the market that much because it didn't really deviate that much. Of course, in my opinion, if it really deviates A LOT, it will move the dollar related pairs, but since there is no history of how much is enough to move it, this report is riskier to trade than most others. But I am going to set very logical pairs, which I think would really affect the dollars. The chances of these triggers being hit are slim to none, but if it happens, I really believe this could potentially be a good trade. Current account is expected at -214 billion, with prior number at -208.7 billion. Logically speaking, I think if it comes out at -180 billion or less negative, that would mean that U.S. significantly decreased debt since last quarter, and it will probably be good for the dollar. Or if it comes out at -250 billion or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, because they would've gained A LOT of debt within last quarter. I think if the number comes out within my set parameters, that would be pretty shocking, and the GBP/USD would react by about 50 pips. So let me recap, if the number comes out at -250 billion or more negative, I will go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -180 billion or less negative, I will go short on GBP/USD. The possibilities of my triggers being hit are slim to none, but if they hit, that should be a good trade.

2. Monday, September 18th, 2006 (9:00 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. TIC report coming out. Of course there is a possibility that if the current account comes out crazily deviating, that would partially set a tone on what I am going to do on the TIC report. But I can't predict what current account will do. So assuming that current account comes out within 5 billion of expected number, which means it won't do anything crazy, here is how I am going to trade this report. TIC report is pretty unanimously expected at 70 billion. Sometimes consensus on this report varies a lot, so I am very happy that this time, the consensus is pretty firm. If the report comes out at 49 billion or below, that should be bad for the dollar, so I will go long on GBP/USD. If the consensus comes out at 100 billion or above, that should be good for the dollar, so I will go short on GBP/USD. If these triggers are hit, I am expecting a move of at least 30 pips on the pound, and very likely a move of 50 pips.

Aha Rav, I know where you stole these from.... you forexB******