Crude Crude Crude

[ajtaylor]

what did you go in at on Crude Spanish?

 

[TWI]

Be careful out there today. Pre holiday market in US and NFP...anybody have that nervous feeling in the gut yet?

 

[gooseman]

had that nervous feeling for most of 2008.

 

[ajtaylor]

Do You think it will top the $150 a barrel?

 

[gooseman]

when? before lunch?

 

[ajtaylor]

lol.
Would You advise a buy or just wait and watch

 

[spanish89]

I went in at 140.27... LOL


I halfed it today to £1 tick to free up capital and so i could have a stoploss at $160 to be safe,
and am holding the short longterm,
but am buying oil daly today at £2 tick now.

 

[ajtaylor]

Reading all the news posts, it could be poss that your $160 SL could get sucked up by next week as they are saying $150 by the end of today once the Euro report comes out.

 

[Greg8501]

Dear o dear...

I am sure the old hands are finding this whole thread somewhat amusing. I especially liked the 'margin' explanation.

For those who are new to oil, please for the sake of your account, take care. This is a wild market at the moment and can chew you up in a heartbeat.

No offence to Spanish, but I would do your own research, rather than follow anyone's 'tips'.

Oil has $150 written all over it at present, thus, my own view is long with reasonable stops. It doesn't seem to matter what bearish sentiment gets thrown at it, the bulls are in charge. If nothing else, I think the market will almost will itself to the 150 mark.

I don't care what anyone says, this is not about supply and demand anymore, it is pure speculation. How can you make the argument that the fundamentals have changed so much this year to support a 50% uptick in crude?

Anyhow, for those not used to crude, take my advice and dont get sucked into a market, just because of the current high vol.

 

[Mr. Charts]

greg,
Nice to read a sensible post

 

[spanish89]

Reading all the news posts, it could be poss that your $160 SL could get sucked up by next week as they are saying $150 by the end of today once the Euro report comes out.

Yep i read all those exact same news articles, constant live stream to bloomberg, and spent most the night till 6am researching it mate....

And look what happend though...!

These are meant to be the top traders in the world writing this news and forecast...,
but look how they cocked this 1 up!


I lost so much today cos i also believed those news and went long £2 tick on the crude daily.



But trichet announced it in taht funny sorta way that made everyone think theres no more rate hikes, and as a result dollars rising.

 

[spanish89]

Dear o dear...

I am sure the old hands are finding this whole thread somewhat amusing. I especially liked the 'margin' explanation.

For those who are new to oil, please for the sake of your account, take care. This is a wild market at the moment and can chew you up in a heartbeat.

No offence to Spanish, but I would do your own research, rather than follow anyone's 'tips'.

Oil has $150 written all over it at present, thus, my own view is long with reasonable stops. It doesn't seem to matter what bearish sentiment gets thrown at it, the bulls are in charge. If nothing else, I think the market will almost will itself to the 150 mark.

I don't care what anyone says, this is not about supply and demand anymore, it is pure speculation. How can you make the argument that the fundamentals have changed so much this year to support a 50% uptick in crude?

Anyhow, for those not used to crude, take my advice and dont get sucked into a market, just because of the current high vol.

Im sorry mate but i believe i am going to have to stick with my prediction on this that we will be seeing 137/8 next week before we see 151/2.

Cos at teh end of the day the buyers can keep throwing more and more money at the oil to buy all the contracts they want..,
but eventually like now the will stop and think '**** no-ones actually going to be able to pay me this much for it when i want to sell it', and then the pullback will come.


We only reached the 40s on monday, and your thinking oils just going to skip through them to 50 cos well 50 sounds like a more solid number??? :whistling


At that rate your saying about 60s next week oils goingup by £5 / $10 per week!!

So if if stays at this rate of yours the oil will be $300 per barrel by halloween!!

 

[TWI]

Of note is the post figure pause followed by a sustained dollar buying spree and a failed attempt to get S&P higher. Gold had a quick sell off along with crude but despite the dollar, support came back to both. Plenty of buying still out there. If the dollar is bid up on the evening session we could see a washout in crude but I would probably be in tomorrow on the bid in brent if that happens.
Good trading.

 

[ajtaylor]

Were you not using you high SL method today?

Yep i read all those exact same news articles, constant live stream to bloomberg, and spent most the night till 6am researching it mate....

And look what happend though...!

These are meant to be the top traders in the world writing this news and forecast...,
but look how they cocked this 1 up!


I lost so much today cos i also believed those news and went long £2 tick on the crude daily.



But trichet announced it in taht funny sorta way that made everyone think theres no more rate hikes, and as a result dollars rising.

 

[spanish89]

Were you not using you high SL method today?

I was, but had to cut it to $149, to free up extra capital, and then with my other scalping trades i started getting very jump and unlucky.


I still have that short open though.

 

[ajtaylor]

You can't win them all!

I'm still in for the long currently down but i still think it will get there (eventually)

 

[spanish89]

You can't win them all!

I'm still in for the long currently down but i still think it will get there (eventually)

Yep you will get there eventually...

But 1st the oils going to have to pullback next week so you better have a very big stoploss. :cheesy:



Im sorry but the oil doesnt just skip through $10s per week now!!

 

[Greg8501]

Well, I will just have to bow to your superior knowledge on this one...what would analysts at ML, GS etc know anyway huh...

I guess my years working for an Investment Bank have been somewhat wasted afterall...

I dont know TWI and co from a bar of soap, but for you new comers out there, I would listen to these posts and avoid the red or black approach.

All the best.

 

[ajtaylor]

I realise that, but all it takes is a Middle Eastern country to invade another and boom the cost of oil rockets again, and with the current economic situation i wouldn't put that past them, trust me i have been out there and seen the countries and the way things happen, they don't beat around the bush.

 

[spanish89]

I realise that, but all it takes is a Middle Eastern country to invade another and boom the cost of oil rockets again, and with the current economic situation i wouldn't put that past them, trust me i have been out there and seen the countries and the way things happen, they don't beat around the bush.

So your basing your profit target on there being a war?!! :-0twisted:

Even though its not unlikely to happen, it is just so unethical n possibly even technically illegal actually since eyour going to be profiting from war!!