Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

Dow futures still ranging on the 1 hours .......

Euro and GBP look pretty solid still though

N

 

[NVP]

EurUsd has been reeeeeeeeal nice in last 2x15m TF bars .....!!

 

[NVP]

hey all

finally got away for a peek at the markets......may not get time to trade though tonight

hmmmm..........that Dow "bounce north" optimism I had early in the day after the asian session has gone sour .........its falling now !

I stand by my call on the U/J........that pair s/be falling ..........the only thing that will save it is the Dow responding north again...... OR the BoJ selling it again later on tonight

Regarding the normal FXCorrelator system signals .......GBP looks the dog to sell if yen gets above the 20ma on the 1 hr

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

well the Dow seems to be on a sell path at present....some nice sells on Euro on that 1hr chart attached

I'm concerned about the Support level being hit now on Dow....dont get to focused on a continued Move - expecting at least a retrace

N

 

[NVP]

Jees that U/J sell is hard work to call

the Dow fell overnight and we do have a little momentum on U/J coming south ....but nothing like I was hoping .......the BoJ continue to watch and will intervene if needed

becomes a dangerous play .......until BoJ step away ......

N

 

[Chonchy]

Jees that U/J sell is hard work to call

the Dow fell overnight and we do have a little momentum on U/J coming south ....but nothing like I was hoping .......the BoJ continue to watch and will intervene if needed

becomes a dangerous play .......until BoJ step away ......

N

........Nice call Sr. on that U/J, nice call in deed, thanks.......

 

[NVP]

hey all

well the Dow seems to be on a sell path at present....some nice sells on Euro on that 1hr chart attached

I'm concerned about the Support level being hit now on Dow....dont get to focused on a continued Move - expecting at least a retrace

N

well well well.....

the gift that keeps on coming .....i've been happily on that E/U sell for quite a while now...and will keep riding it until conditiones change ....perhaps Dow opening will make an impact

N

 

[NVP]

........Nice call Sr. on that U/J, nice call in deed, thanks.......

peanuts C...I am embarrassed so far .....

still may make some more of the sell later if Dow keeps falling....meanwhile I have no complaints selling E/U today

N

 

[NVP]

Jees this is getting serious for the Dow today ......the blood is flowing now

N

 

[NVP]

hey

Anyone get the gold sell early hours ?

looking tempting again ....thats the more dire Euro thats still preventing it from being the lowest valued line in the chart attached

N

 

[NVP]

the USD has spent the whole day so far above the Zero line on the default 20ma 15mTF

Thats quite a rare rare sight ....WOW !

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

just a head up ...I'm out of E/U now in the 15m ......in fact is already looking good to buy on the very low TF's


N

 

[NVP]

interesting day !

watching some other threads I noticed a lot of buying of the CAD against USD

(ie Sell USDCAD)

yep that was certainly a trade (see below)..the CAD is the brown firework moving up the chart !

But to me what do we say ?

Falling Dow = buy usd and Yen (above Zero on FXCorrelator)
then sell whatever looks most divergent and weak on the chart (below Zero on FXcorrelator)

so the Euro (and at other times GBP and indeed others as well) became our sells today on 15m TF

Theres nothing wrong with the CAD trade ......but why make it hard for yourselves ?

the USD and Yen were also moving in the SAME direction as the CAD (up)......so the CAD had to be much more powerful then those guys to make pips !....the CAD was being Chased by the USD and Yen !

surely you increase the odds of profit when your currencies are moving in OPPOSITE Directions ?

just like we do.............Trading is tough enough as it is without making it even more difficult......

have a good evening corrie compardres
NVP

 

[NVP]

here we are again

I need to see a breakout on that 1 hr dow before i start trading again.

or at least some action around the S / R levels so I can trade the bounce

N

 

[NVP]

here we are 90 mins later

1) See the bounce on the 1hr left chart ...?

2) with this Dow bounce you could look to be aggressive and SELL Yen and USD into any rising currencies

BUT !!!

see the Euro ?............its being destroyed this morning

so this Skews the bounce trade and we see

Sell E/U and E/J
or
Buy rising currencies into the Yen and USD ? (ie above their pairchart 20ma crosses)
(hint - that means a G/U buy on the right chart)

both have made a few pips .....but the dominent trade had to be the Euro so far

lesson over :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

Actually .......what happened on GBP this morning ?

it was against the play .....so I wasnt interested untill Dow bounced

hmmmm?
N

 

[NVP]

heres the ultra long game .............Weekly chart - 20ma settings

If I were managing megabucks for clients and targeting a few safe percentage points a year (or more likely just trying to ensure they didnt have exchange rate losses on their global investments)

I would actually be out of the market at the moment as the Dow is retracing south and we await to see if this continues into sub 20ma territory......and most currencies are Converging towards the ZERO so no significant pairtrade money is being made .......

so far this year I would be happy with performance having :-

Sold USD and YEN Q1
Bought USD and Yen Q2
Sold USD and Yen Q3
and closed these out in Q4 (waiting for next move)

sure we play some games regarding pairing those yen and USD moves with a basket of currencies showing the most opposite tendencies.....but thats how its done ......ive handed my clients a nice solid return

and thats why I like Trading Forex .......

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

I will not be around much this afternoon.......but this morning has already proved sucessful so no worries

as we have discussed earlier .....I aggressively traded the bounce

X marks the spot where I figured things were gonna retrace.....

and if youve been here long enough you will be getting to know where these points are on the Dow....and then hunting clues on the FXCorrelator to look for trades !

remember this was an early call on a trade that then became the traditional FXcorrelator rules

but sometimes if the dynamics are right I go in early to mop up a lot more pips

later all
N

 

[NVP]

someone asked me to explain what I meant by anticipation and trading these non standard rules

let me put this straight

the standard FXcorrelator rules on a default 20ma will do a fairly decent job of giving you robust signals

If Dow is > 20ma = Sell Yen and USD pairs if they are both BELOW the Zero on a 20ma setting
If Dow is < 20ma = BUY Yen and USD pairs if they are both ABOVE the Zero on a 20ma setting

but if you want to spice up the act add more price action signals and also try to anticipate when these dudes are overbought / oversold

in effect you are then trading retraces !
N

 

[NVP]

no matter what system you trade (mine, price action , MA following , Fibs , S/R, DOM ... etc etc)

to become a great trader you need to be able to anticipate the trades and hit them hard

think of it like great sportsmen and women ....the greatest of these have a sixth sence of what to do and are always AHEAD of everyone else in timing what they do.....

Andy Murray is always moving to where the ball will be (not chasing behind it )
Renaldo always runs to where the ball will be....not where it is now !
Tiger woods is thinking about his Putt whilst he is still on the Fairway

and so on ..........

Being Good is achievable ...being better than Good requires years of practice and constant anticipation !

N