Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies
NVP
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ok I do have to scoot for a while
If you had been part of my VIP crew last year you would have recognised this as a classic Naked trade on the 5min charts !!
whats a naked trade ?
well you just trade when the usd and yen are both one side of the zero and another currency is shifting FAST in the opposite direction ....you ignore what the Dow is doing and say SCREW correlation !
heres the 5min on a 20ma
The Dow says that the yen and usd should be falling ..but they were rising so technically all bets were off ....or idiot NVP tries to call a retrace and says wait wait wait until the Dow falters a little .......!
if you were trading naked then you just blasted the G/U and E/U sells when the lines crossed the zero on the 5min chart (about 200 years ago !)
instead of now when NVP has made you wait a long long time to take those sell trades !!!
have a good afternoon ......
NVP
If you had been part of my VIP crew last year you would have recognised this as a classic Naked trade on the 5min charts !!
whats a naked trade ?
well you just trade when the usd and yen are both one side of the zero and another currency is shifting FAST in the opposite direction ....you ignore what the Dow is doing and say SCREW correlation !
heres the 5min on a 20ma
The Dow says that the yen and usd should be falling ..but they were rising so technically all bets were off ....or idiot NVP tries to call a retrace and says wait wait wait until the Dow falters a little .......!
if you were trading naked then you just blasted the G/U and E/U sells when the lines crossed the zero on the 5min chart (about 200 years ago !)
instead of now when NVP has made you wait a long long time to take those sell trades !!!
have a good afternoon ......
NVP
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NVP
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ok as I go heres the 15mins
astonishing strength on the yen and usd as dow finally falters .......this indicates tremendous bull pressure on the dynamic duo that should continue for a while yet
it was just a shame we didnt even get a whisper of weakness from the dow to give me more faith in it ....
oh me of little faith !
N
astonishing strength on the yen and usd as dow finally falters .......this indicates tremendous bull pressure on the dynamic duo that should continue for a while yet
it was just a shame we didnt even get a whisper of weakness from the dow to give me more faith in it ....
oh me of little faith !
N
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NVP
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hey all
just popped in to close up shop......jees that dow has disapointed me today !
its just flatlining.......useless for anyone !
EU got down to around 1.3013 and G/U just stuck on pretty much my last post level so that was pretty poor .......
such is life - and trading !
have a good evening
N
just popped in to close up shop......jees that dow has disapointed me today !
its just flatlining.......useless for anyone !
EU got down to around 1.3013 and G/U just stuck on pretty much my last post level so that was pretty poor .......
such is life - and trading !
have a good evening
N
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NVP
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hey all
last post today ......Remember I always tell you to keep it simple and then I get bored on the lower TF's and try to take the most complicated trades on the planet ?
well heres the peaceful 1 hour TF..........what are my Basic rules ?..all together
Dow > 20ma = sell usd and yen when below the zero
Dow < 20ma = buy usd and yen when above the zero
Trade the fastest diverging currencies to the yen and usd
so what do we see here on the Chart ?
lovely trades in the last 2 days ........no fuss or bother
so do what I say and not what I do here to show off ......
you have to be smart enough to build a good system
...........and then dumb enough to follow it - full stop !
you may also note I have mainly been trying to trade against the 1hr trend all afternoon ......again more abominations and gasps !!!!
Later
N
(note to self - stop being clever and follow the rules)
last post today ......Remember I always tell you to keep it simple and then I get bored on the lower TF's and try to take the most complicated trades on the planet ?
well heres the peaceful 1 hour TF..........what are my Basic rules ?..all together
Dow > 20ma = sell usd and yen when below the zero
Dow < 20ma = buy usd and yen when above the zero
Trade the fastest diverging currencies to the yen and usd
so what do we see here on the Chart ?
lovely trades in the last 2 days ........no fuss or bother
so do what I say and not what I do here to show off ......
you have to be smart enough to build a good system
...........and then dumb enough to follow it - full stop !
you may also note I have mainly been trying to trade against the 1hr trend all afternoon ......again more abominations and gasps !!!!
Later
N
(note to self - stop being clever and follow the rules)
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NVP
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hey all
http://fxcorrelator.com/corrie2/blog/now-what-2/
hope everyone enjoyed my antics trying to conjure some pips from the lower TF's yesterday.....
stepping back it was obvious I was trying to buck the main trend and in truth was trying to trade something that wasnt there.....
hey no real harm done and a handful of pips lost.......
meanwhile that Dow Daily is having fun (left chart)....will it EVER make its mind up ?
up down up down.....c'mon guys we are getting seasick !
well time will tell......just trade the simple rules here and try to keep it simple as usual.....
the 1 hour TF (right) Dow just dropped under the 20ma so lets see if it holds .......and we can start to Buy usd and Yen later today for a while
NVP:smart:
http://fxcorrelator.com/corrie2/blog/now-what-2/
hope everyone enjoyed my antics trying to conjure some pips from the lower TF's yesterday.....
stepping back it was obvious I was trying to buck the main trend and in truth was trying to trade something that wasnt there.....
hey no real harm done and a handful of pips lost.......
meanwhile that Dow Daily is having fun (left chart)....will it EVER make its mind up ?
up down up down.....c'mon guys we are getting seasick !
well time will tell......just trade the simple rules here and try to keep it simple as usual.....
the 1 hour TF (right) Dow just dropped under the 20ma so lets see if it holds .......and we can start to Buy usd and Yen later today for a while
NVP:smart:
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NVP
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no arguments from me Jeff
why not remove the USD from the equations above though to make the descriptions simpler.....?
you are really saying that the Euro,GBP and CHF are correlating positively and that the NZD and AUD are correlating positively .....
yep no arguments there......and here they all are on 4H TF.....tight as peas in a pod ?
...hmm looks like the AUD and NZD are getting a little adrift but I dont trade the NZD much as its to volatile and minor league vs AUD
just watch the Euro v GBP relationship...they tend to have a few arguments during the LondonTrading session
N
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NVP
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Trend following..........intertesting article re the origins
http://www.michaelcovel.com/pdfs/stig-ostgaard.pdf
http://www.michaelcovel.com/pdfs/stig-ostgaard.pdf
NVP
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i'm always playing and researching .........
looking at michael covel at present .......anyone read him ?
N
http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/turtle-article.pdf
looking at michael covel at present .......anyone read him ?
N
http://www.trendfollowing.com/whitepaper/turtle-article.pdf
Raleigh Lee
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I'm not sure how you're identifying correlation, but if you look carefully you'll see that either a negative or positive correlation exists in almost every pair. This is one thing I don't like about Forex, because it inhibits diversification.
NVP
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if you have been trading pure 15m TF today heres the chart
its GMT-1 so the first signals were around 6.00 on chart and actually 7.00 GMT
a little chopping but generally you should have achieved positive pips so far based on a decent Exit / Entry criteria and giving it some space
you will notice here when I trade here I give Zero wiggle room as I am generally trading the 5mins and I do not let the signals linger.........
N
its GMT-1 so the first signals were around 6.00 on chart and actually 7.00 GMT
a little chopping but generally you should have achieved positive pips so far based on a decent Exit / Entry criteria and giving it some space
you will notice here when I trade here I give Zero wiggle room as I am generally trading the 5mins and I do not let the signals linger.........
N
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NVP
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Hey RL
can you expand this a little please ? ...........i'm not sure why high correlation coefficients inhibit profitability in Forex .......isnt that good ?
N
NVP
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interesting correlation comments here from the boys
personally I feel that the critical factor here is if there is a escalation in the standard deviation across the aggregated yield values of the collective Eurozone players - as this risk/volatility must result in a (short term) detrimental impact on the currency value ? - nes pas ?
http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/currency-currents/101712_bscc_correlation.pdf
personally I feel that the critical factor here is if there is a escalation in the standard deviation across the aggregated yield values of the collective Eurozone players - as this risk/volatility must result in a (short term) detrimental impact on the currency value ? - nes pas ?
http://blackswantrading.squarespace.com/storage/currency-currents/101712_bscc_correlation.pdf
NVP
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fired it up for 1 quick look.....
jees you dont see this often.....the YEN, USD,EUR and GBP all south of the border
no trade then......
I will be honest (as usual) with you all.....I could say "look at me I bought the AUD" etc etc and called it perfectly .........naaah
To be honest I dont play that Dude anymore much during London hours...its a night hunter in our european world.....emerging to feast as the asian session warms up .....
:smart:
N
jees you dont see this often.....the YEN, USD,EUR and GBP all south of the border
no trade then......
I will be honest (as usual) with you all.....I could say "look at me I bought the AUD" etc etc and called it perfectly .........naaah
To be honest I dont play that Dude anymore much during London hours...its a night hunter in our european world.....emerging to feast as the asian session warms up .....
:smart:
N
