Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

Yen is so far the strongest currency and NZD and GBP weakest, so I sold GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY.

If you are following Strict Triple corrie rules .......

I would only buy Yen this morning as a Supporting trade (against a more triple signal sell currency).........look at my last post here guys .....Yen is back as a triple sell ............I may have looked at selling AUDJPY earlier but using the triple sell signal of AUD as the lead in (Yen just happened to be a buy on 5 min)

it offered 5 min signal at 76.62 (7am) and fell to 76.47 initially ........its broken down now as Yen has gone triple sell

remember I don't necessarily trade this system in my morning scalping ........so I am not dimissing buying yen (as I did buy it earlier this morning a little).........but that was off of my specialised scalping systems that pretty much ignore higher TF's and the 3 ducks corrie

N:smart:

 

[NVP]

London morning over ..........

the promising EA bull from my last post has done real well ....to +50's on moves from 6am

GBP has sold off strongly as well........GU offered to -50 pip from 6am starts

that would have done nicely today
N

 

[NVP]

wont get to trade again today .........

US session interesting so far .......GBP been pretty bull at times , and the Euro

main sells the CAD and the NZD ......Chf coming last hour or so

USD rangy but now bull , yen rangy

pairwise nothing really diverged excessively to date ....EA buys , GU buys , UCAD buys , and now EA sells and EU and GU sells leading the charge .....

all over the place
N

 

[NVP]

morning all

overnights

usd is the sell..... gbp the main bull

6am starts

usd still falling...........chf and Euro so far the buys ....we are still only talking 10 pip ranges +/- the zero start line at 6am ........but good volatility that promises much here

pairs
selling the USd and yen now has got us a few scalps in the frame

EU , AU , GU buys and Ucad sells
EA buys , EJ buys

get amongst it ......

N

 

[NVP]

ok Friday ..........what do we look for ?

yep the retraces on the big moving currencies into the weekend

this week the GBP has done well.....its about 150 pips up for week

however its already been sold off from its double top on wed / thurs (+200 pips).... .so don't expect much more

CHF is the possible retrace bull buy ....shes 70 pips down for week and bouncing slowly off a 95pip low.........possibilities to buy that in for any traders still looking to close out CHF shorts against other stronger currencies in week

CHF is certainly doing well today

N

 

[NVP]

ok any more scalping today calls are on that thread ............this one is more generic Strengthmeter comments and sharing ideas

N

 

[NVP]

3 duck corrie action ?........

the USD is THE sell guys .........its been triple duck corrie signal from early Asian last night

sell usd into best bull currency signals .........2 great waves of selling on that Greenback so far ........
Yellow Yen is also in but still a little rangy

I like it when usd and yen are in sync (positively correlated).....its one of the patterns I look for

N

 

[NVP]

London over - how'd you do ?

gbp was ranging violently I see.....it went to +20 early from 6am the back to -20's later in session !
50 pip swing trade....great if you play a S/R level bounce reverse strategy on GBP pairs

yen slowly ground north in session ........usd after intial falls has come bull

cad a buy ...

pairs in action ...........well as stated if you played a gbp reverals it was a brave and lucrative strategy ...the gu fell sharply from 9.50 ....some 50 pips on the last swing low

otherwise the normal trend grinding generated a few decent pairs

EU EA GU buys early London

then selling GU and buying ucad later in session (as usd came north)

have a good us session
N

 

[NVP]

on the triple corrie the signals are on

NZD BUYS
CHF SELLS

see how that grabs you for us session

YEN AND USD are off the bear sells at moment ........but they may come back hard south if US kicks off with falls on equities (catty play)

N

 

[NVP]

on the triple corrie the signals are on

NZD BUYS
CHF SELLS

see how that grabs you for us session

YEN AND USD are off the bear sells at moment ........but they may come back hard south if US kicks off with gains on equities (carry play)

N

 

[NVP]

on the triple corrie the signals are on

NZD BUYS
CHF SELLS

see how that grabs you for us session

YEN AND USD are off the bear sells at moment ........but they may come back hard south if US kicks off with gains on equities (carry play)

N

these guys have been triple signals all afternoon ........

the thing is the core system is sound .........the devil is in identifying the best PAIRS to use to trade on these trending currencies

and that needs a whole world of experience and training to master.... :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

on the triple corrie the signals are on

NZD BUYS
CHF SELLS

see how that grabs you for us session

YEN AND USD are off the bear sells at moment ........but they may come back hard south if US kicks off with gains on equities (carry play)

N

the usd is rangy and although signalling bull its very very tight .so personally I would let the 1h and 4h get a little more divergent .........up to you guys

meanwhile the yen has come back solid sell us opens .....triple signal on the yellow arrows .........

N

 

[NVP]

guys I wont be back scalping today ..........have a good one and i will post the weeks action over weekend

N

 

[NVP]

One day .....(and it can be a long time coming)......a trader finally realises how simple the market is ..........you are either

trading the trend
or fading the trend (retraces)

and a market is always trending .....you just have to look hard enough.....

that's it .........don't trade unless you are seeing a decent signal re above.....

if you are a sloppy trader on those decent signals - you will lose over time
if you are a tight and disciplined trader - but you are not trading these signals correctly - you will lose over time

the market is unforgiving - brutal in fact - no mercy - so bring your best game every session

N

 

[NVP]

hey gang heres the week....and a little 3 duck corrie bolted on the end

N

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krhaAmOo8h0&feature=youtu.be

 

[NVP]

morning all

bank holiday in uk ........so tread carefully

overnights
yen bear ..to -50's
NZD the buy

London 6am ........

yen still selling..........GBP coming south also in last 10-15 mins
nzd the buy..........usd coming north


London 6am pairs

average volatility so far as expected (monday and BH in uk = low expected)

GU sells now showing as -15/16 pips from 6am opens ......

EJ / UJ buys showing as well

have a good one .........i'm busy today as its not a BH in US or Europe

N

i'll be over on the scalpng thread for a while yet

 

[NVP]

3 duck corrie ...........

personally i'd follow the 3 shown for lead currencies to trade on Lower TF's ..not perfect as I like my usd and yen working together ..........but tell Janet Yellen that

if you want an early bird the Euro is triple signal bull..........but very early days and really needs a little more confirmatory momentum :smart:

N

 

[joseph1986]

can you expand on that question J ?..........thanks

Sorry had my post notification via email turned off due to an interesting individual.
Sample size determination as in how far back do you go for correlations? I have this simple calculator here http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
I've figured even if you have a model that can predict 80% of the days you still could have a week where you get only one day correct and this is mainly due to the amount of noise in your data. For instance...including the brexit and central bank days your data may be thrown off.

 

[NVP]

today so far I have made a lot of pips (well a fair few) out of selling GU.......on the 3 duck corrie that trade is a no no because the GBP is not a triple signal sell (its hanging big time off a buy at moment)

we could justify it off of the USD triple sell signal however .........

N

 

[NVP]

Sorry had my post notification via email turned off due to an interesting individual.
Sample size determination as in how far back do you go for correlations? I have this simple calculator here http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
I've figured even if you have a model that can predict 80% of the days you still could have a week where you get only one day correct and this is mainly due to the amount of noise in your data. For instance...including the brexit and central bank days your data may be thrown off.

hey there

fair enough ....so what are we talking ? - the FXCorrelator ? ............and on what signals ?

of course probability wise anything / everything has a tail / black swan ........

so you adapt to the environment at that time ........so whats your point ?