avtarsaini
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Last thing I forgot to ask - is anyone still trading with concept? If so how are you doing?
Trading Chaos: Maximize Profits with Proven Technical Techniques (A Marketplace Book): Justine GregoryWilliams, Bill M. Williams: Amazon.co.uk: Books
This link should take you to a book called Trading Chaos by Bill Williams. I read this on a reccomendation from Sandy (another trader on the forum) It changed my trading style completely and my account increased by over 62% in December. It will definately help your psychology as well since the first half of the book is dedicated to it.
I am not going to start explaining everything, but the book is basically about trading fractal breakouts. All the indicators you need is free with any MetaTrader 4 account. Bill Williams suggests reading the book, then attending some online seminars then a live seminar. I don't suggest doing this as it will cost you about as much as concept. Simply read the book and apply the fractal techniques.
Once you have read it I will point to my website which will explain in some detail how I trade the fractals using support/resistance along with hedging in order to get the most out of them. Trust me this would be the best £42 you have ever spent.
Hope this helps
avtarsaini
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pvisser - thanks for this - appreciated v. much and will do.
Since when?
I run the sodding thing every night and it hasn't signalled a trade since I believe the 15th or 16th dec, IIRC a EUR/CHF signal that stopped out sfter 48 hours.
An expensive lesson and IMO it's almost worth sending the boys up to Luton to sort them out.
Oddly enough I actually discussed this option jokingly with another member here just before I bough the "programme". "Oh well, if it turns out to be a rip off we know where they are..." :whistling
pseudo straddle
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I am not sure about LS trader.
I looked at them a while ago and decided it's not for me. On one occasion they lost 26 trades out of 27 in 2008. I am not sure what they are risking per trade, but for that to be acceptable you would need to risk about 0.35% per trade. Not only that some of their losses are 1400 points (see LS Trader results 9 July 2008). On IG Index the minimum you can bet on High Grade Copper is 50p... So that would be a loss of about £700.
Yes their wins outwiegh their losses, but say for instance you open an account with £5000 and your first trade is a loss of £700? That's a drawdown of 14% (betting the minimum) on one trade. Then remember after that loss there were the 20 odd other losses which consist of 5 more losses which stretch over the 1000 point mark.
That is how I see it. In this case concept would be a better choice.
I looked at them a while ago and decided it's not for me. On one occasion they lost 26 trades out of 27 in 2008. I am not sure what they are risking per trade, but for that to be acceptable you would need to risk about 0.35% per trade. Not only that some of their losses are 1400 points (see LS Trader results 9 July 2008). On IG Index the minimum you can bet on High Grade Copper is 50p... So that would be a loss of about £700.
Yes their wins outwiegh their losses, but say for instance you open an account with £5000 and your first trade is a loss of £700? That's a drawdown of 14% (betting the minimum) on one trade. Then remember after that loss there were the 20 odd other losses which consist of 5 more losses which stretch over the 1000 point mark.
That is how I see it. In this case concept would be a better choice.
alan5616
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I posted my reservations about Concept FX, on this thread, some months ago, after visiting their offices in Luton. I gave my honest, unprejudiced opinion. My view was that this software was overpriced and, more importantly, would not produce the profitability that the vendors claim.
The fact that the system hasn't generated a signal, on any pair, since mid December must be a worry for those who've parted with their hard earned dosh. In the past 2 days there have been excellent signals on several currency pairs. These signals were apparent just from basic chart reading.
Have any of you guys, who bought this system, thought about claiming a full or partial refund? Perhaps, a combined approach might exert sufficient pressure on the company to make some goodwill gesture to you.
You never know!
Well another week, and my motto more than ever is “You never know”! I have only been running FAPT and my own EA.
Steinitz and Shark have been finally banished, and Roboteer is only kept waiting in case all else fails!
1 Dec 08 Starting Capital £100
5 Dec Account stands at £207
12 Dec Account stands at £1,085
19 Dec Account peaks at £6450
19 Dec Account stands at £1,548
19 Dec Starting capital of £100 withdrawn
24 Dec Account stands at £1,954
2 Jan Account stands at £2,305
7 Jan Account peaks at £3031
9 Jan Account stands at £2,546
I cut back 5 fold on FAPT lot sizes as I was not confident how it would perform in the New Year. Its previously steady behaviour had deteriorated markedly over the hols, and I wasn’t sure it was sensible to continue with the same lot sizes until I could see it was back on form. A few profits have come in but hardly worth much, and I still have net losses since Christmas. There was one really good trade, but the broker decided it was out of order as it had been the result of buying at the bottom of a big sharp price spike down. Their position was that it was an erroneous price from their data feed. Terms and conditions allow this, and frankly the spike was spectacular and contained within a 1 min price bar.
The good news is that my own EA is “proving” the trading strategy quite persuasively, but I have only been trading it in earnest since 29 Dec. On its own it had added around £1130 to the account, but a series of three whipsaws combined with the fact that I had increased lot size removed a chunk of that leaving me with a profit from the EA of £731 after 8 days trading. A repeat of the lesson delivered by Shark, Steinitz and Roboteer on 19 Dec not to increase lot sizes quickly! And to remember that a week’s profitable trading actually “proves” nothing about the future.
I was planning to withdraw a chunk of profit this week but the hit to my account on 7 Jan put paid to that idea.
The bad news is that I am having technical problems with the MT4 platform, which I cannot get a handle on. The broker’s support people have been very open to long telephone discussions on the issue, and said there do appear to be problems getting MT4 to do more than one thing at a time. So I am working on a way to keep my strategy running without asking too much of MT4. Not yet sure I have got a viable work around, still less a way of re-coding the EA. I am not a coding type of person, and it will cost me!! I am starting to look around for another platform, which will require my EA to be re-coded and cause unwelcome expense, and also force an inconvenient change of broker, just as I am gaining confidence in Alpari.
I am very frustrated by the recent unexpected technical problems, and still suffer lingering disappointment that the early exponential growth in the account didn’t continue! I was “supposed” to have made my first million by the end of this month, and time is running out! February maybe! Oh well, I did say I was trying to get rich slowly! Even running EAs makes psychological demands.
Some of you may be interested that I see futuresbetting.com offer the possibility of spread-betting using robots. Now that sounds like a good idea!
Well another week, and my motto more than ever is “You never know”! I have only been running FAPT and my own EA.
Steinitz and Shark have been finally banished, and Roboteer is only kept waiting in case all else fails!
1 Dec 08 Starting Capital £100
5 Dec Account stands at £207
12 Dec Account stands at £1,085
19 Dec Account peaks at £6450
19 Dec Account stands at £1,548
19 Dec Starting capital of £100 withdrawn
24 Dec Account stands at £1,954
2 Jan Account stands at £2,305
7 Jan Account peaks at £3031
9 Jan Account stands at £2,546
I cut back 5 fold on FAPT lot sizes as I was not confident how it would perform in the New Year. Its previously steady behaviour had deteriorated markedly over the hols, and I wasn’t sure it was sensible to continue with the same lot sizes until I could see it was back on form. A few profits have come in but hardly worth much, and I still have net losses since Christmas. There was one really good trade, but the broker decided it was out of order as it had been the result of buying at the bottom of a big sharp price spike down. Their position was that it was an erroneous price from their data feed. Terms and conditions allow this, and frankly the spike was spectacular and contained within a 1 min price bar.
The good news is that my own EA is “proving” the trading strategy quite persuasively, but I have only been trading it in earnest since 29 Dec. On its own it had added around £1130 to the account, but a series of three whipsaws combined with the fact that I had increased lot size removed a chunk of that leaving me with a profit from the EA of £731 after 8 days trading. A repeat of the lesson delivered by Shark, Steinitz and Roboteer on 19 Dec not to increase lot sizes quickly! And to remember that a week’s profitable trading actually “proves” nothing about the future.
I was planning to withdraw a chunk of profit this week but the hit to my account on 7 Jan put paid to that idea.
The bad news is that I am having technical problems with the MT4 platform, which I cannot get a handle on. The broker’s support people have been very open to long telephone discussions on the issue, and said there do appear to be problems getting MT4 to do more than one thing at a time. So I am working on a way to keep my strategy running without asking too much of MT4. Not yet sure I have got a viable work around, still less a way of re-coding the EA. I am not a coding type of person, and it will cost me!! I am starting to look around for another platform, which will require my EA to be re-coded and cause unwelcome expense, and also force an inconvenient change of broker, just as I am gaining confidence in Alpari.
I am very frustrated by the recent unexpected technical problems, and still suffer lingering disappointment that the early exponential growth in the account didn’t continue! I was “supposed” to have made my first million by the end of this month, and time is running out! February maybe! Oh well, I did say I was trying to get rich slowly! Even running EAs makes psychological demands.
Some of you may be interested that I see futuresbetting.com offer the possibility of spread-betting using robots. Now that sounds like a good idea!
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stevespray
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Just to say a few words in defence of Concept...
As many who follow this thread will know I 'bit the bullet' and bought the system (for a big discount) in mid May 08. I bought the system as it fitted my requirement for a 'fire and forget' method to compliment a few other methods I use. Also being able to run the update after 8.30pm fits very nicely with my lifestyle.
Initially everything went very well but then we had this recent run of losing trades. The net result is that I am showing a small loss on the trades which exactly follow the system signals. The reality, for one reason or another, shows that I am actually slightly ahead.
My feeling is that people are perhaps expecting too much from the system. I see that some have already discarded it. I feel that this maybe premature. You must consider that we've just come through one of the most unstable periods of time in the financial markets in 70 odd years - the most that people are complaining about is that their banks have been reduced by around 50% - my feeling is that this shows that the system is pretty resilient in nature since many other systems would have been bled completely dry by now.
Three new signals have occured this week. One has triggered and is nicely in profit as of 10pm last night (Fri 9th Jan 09).
Given that, in real terms, I am around breakeven I am starting a new spreadsheet with a slightly larger opening balance (my other methods have been very profitable over the last 6 months).
I will continue to report my progress as the new year starts.
Happy New Year everyone!
Steve.
As many who follow this thread will know I 'bit the bullet' and bought the system (for a big discount) in mid May 08. I bought the system as it fitted my requirement for a 'fire and forget' method to compliment a few other methods I use. Also being able to run the update after 8.30pm fits very nicely with my lifestyle.
Initially everything went very well but then we had this recent run of losing trades. The net result is that I am showing a small loss on the trades which exactly follow the system signals. The reality, for one reason or another, shows that I am actually slightly ahead.
My feeling is that people are perhaps expecting too much from the system. I see that some have already discarded it. I feel that this maybe premature. You must consider that we've just come through one of the most unstable periods of time in the financial markets in 70 odd years - the most that people are complaining about is that their banks have been reduced by around 50% - my feeling is that this shows that the system is pretty resilient in nature since many other systems would have been bled completely dry by now.
Three new signals have occured this week. One has triggered and is nicely in profit as of 10pm last night (Fri 9th Jan 09).
Given that, in real terms, I am around breakeven I am starting a new spreadsheet with a slightly larger opening balance (my other methods have been very profitable over the last 6 months).
I will continue to report my progress as the new year starts.
Happy New Year everyone!
Steve.
Reilient, not
And to you too Steve!
I really think that one thing Concept has proved more than adequately is that it is very definitely not resilient! Resilience means still making profit when the market changes, or at least not losing! Not simply losing less than the banks did with their outrageously risky lending strategies! Concept makes my haphazard and amateurish trading pursuits look like the work of a genius!! And the banks make my very weak money management look highly competent! I don't think you can connect Concept's failures with the great credit disaster. The fact is it is trading currencies, which move relative to each other, not lending to the poor. This was supposed to be one of its great strengths, for goodness sake. You yourself say that your other trading has been very profitable over the period of Concept's losing. My case could rest on that alone!
It is now over six months since I bought Concept and, having struggled to prevent losses by manual intervention, I did give up taking the trades. That was the right decision for me. Maybe Concept will one day have a run which replicates the curve fitted profitability it showed in back testing. That will just be a matter of luck, not probability.
Your continuing experiment with Concept is probably in keeping with the small print in the Concept T&C which emphasise that it is an educational toy, not to be taken as serious trading advice!! It is that small print that precludes, if nothing else does, the possibility of getting any money back from the vendors. And keeps them beyond the reach of the FSA: always assuming the FSA civil servants have any gumption in the first place. If you make any money from Concept it will be a fortunate by product of your spreadsheet experiment. I feel sure there is a vast majority of losers among the Concept brotherhood, with real money down the drain. And it will ever be so. I will never forget the disaster that was Tradewin, from the same stable. It ended with a wimper just as Concept is doing, and with exactly the same "it's the market you know" excuse.
The vendors traded on naivety, raked their money in up front and banked it (buy some gold bullion would be my advice). No risk there for them. Well done!! Wish I had the gall and the nouse! As one of the naive brigade, I won't be so naive a third time they launch a marketing drive, I hope!
Anyway, all the best!
And to you too Steve!
I really think that one thing Concept has proved more than adequately is that it is very definitely not resilient! Resilience means still making profit when the market changes, or at least not losing! Not simply losing less than the banks did with their outrageously risky lending strategies! Concept makes my haphazard and amateurish trading pursuits look like the work of a genius!! And the banks make my very weak money management look highly competent! I don't think you can connect Concept's failures with the great credit disaster. The fact is it is trading currencies, which move relative to each other, not lending to the poor. This was supposed to be one of its great strengths, for goodness sake. You yourself say that your other trading has been very profitable over the period of Concept's losing. My case could rest on that alone!
It is now over six months since I bought Concept and, having struggled to prevent losses by manual intervention, I did give up taking the trades. That was the right decision for me. Maybe Concept will one day have a run which replicates the curve fitted profitability it showed in back testing. That will just be a matter of luck, not probability.
Your continuing experiment with Concept is probably in keeping with the small print in the Concept T&C which emphasise that it is an educational toy, not to be taken as serious trading advice!! It is that small print that precludes, if nothing else does, the possibility of getting any money back from the vendors. And keeps them beyond the reach of the FSA: always assuming the FSA civil servants have any gumption in the first place. If you make any money from Concept it will be a fortunate by product of your spreadsheet experiment. I feel sure there is a vast majority of losers among the Concept brotherhood, with real money down the drain. And it will ever be so. I will never forget the disaster that was Tradewin, from the same stable. It ended with a wimper just as Concept is doing, and with exactly the same "it's the market you know" excuse.
The vendors traded on naivety, raked their money in up front and banked it (buy some gold bullion would be my advice). No risk there for them. Well done!! Wish I had the gall and the nouse! As one of the naive brigade, I won't be so naive a third time they launch a marketing drive, I hope!
Anyway, all the best!
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stevespray
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...But isn't your analysis very short term in nature? It's about understanding market probabilities. Taking a sample of trades (of Concept's nature ie lasting sometimes several days) from only 6 months or so does not provide enough data to draw a conclusion - thats mathematical fact.
Secondly, whilst I'm against just throwing money away, most of the people who have 'thrown in the towel' don't seem to have approached the Concept system in a business like manner - this point I set out in a very early post to the board. The assumption is that because the system is in a draw-down it is bound to ultimately fail completely and wipe the who bank out - people fail to consider the psychology of trading via a trading system - the reason that you set up a 'bank' and also determine a percentage risk is because you are prepared to risk the whole 'bank'. If you stop half way because the bank is in a draw-down of 50% then you actually increase your odds of system failure by a multipul of 4!! Personally, when I started this project, I wrote off the whole sum I invested in my 'bank' as a loss. I certainly wont miss the money if it all gets lost - maybe that takes the pressure off.
With regard to performance - Obviously I started trading the system slightly before the majority of people who have contributed to this thread and therefore I'm not in such a big draw-down. Initially my account showed a profit of 48% on the original bank. Because I increased stakes slightly (because I was in the 'bank growing' stage the lossing run obviously hurts you a tad more. If I was using flat stakes from the outset I'd be around break-even between mid May 08 and now. Ultimately you do need a bit of luck in trading no matter what anyone tells you - most of the traders interviewed in the Jack Swager books say that you need some 'luck' to really succeed long term.
Even though I only started trading with Concept from May 08 I'd actually been following the results pretty closely from the turn of the year. When you analyse a whole years results this recent draw-down gets put into perspective - you'd still be up well over 300% based on flat stakes.
Thirdly, you will find the kind of small print that you mention on pretty much anything which has anykind of connection to the financial markets. It's the nature of living in a 'Nanny State'!
Just out of interest, have you considered opening a 'play money' account with someone like Capital Spreads and still running the Concept system? I would suggest that this would be on benefit to you.
Take care,
Steve.
Secondly, whilst I'm against just throwing money away, most of the people who have 'thrown in the towel' don't seem to have approached the Concept system in a business like manner - this point I set out in a very early post to the board. The assumption is that because the system is in a draw-down it is bound to ultimately fail completely and wipe the who bank out - people fail to consider the psychology of trading via a trading system - the reason that you set up a 'bank' and also determine a percentage risk is because you are prepared to risk the whole 'bank'. If you stop half way because the bank is in a draw-down of 50% then you actually increase your odds of system failure by a multipul of 4!! Personally, when I started this project, I wrote off the whole sum I invested in my 'bank' as a loss. I certainly wont miss the money if it all gets lost - maybe that takes the pressure off.
With regard to performance - Obviously I started trading the system slightly before the majority of people who have contributed to this thread and therefore I'm not in such a big draw-down. Initially my account showed a profit of 48% on the original bank. Because I increased stakes slightly (because I was in the 'bank growing' stage the lossing run obviously hurts you a tad more. If I was using flat stakes from the outset I'd be around break-even between mid May 08 and now. Ultimately you do need a bit of luck in trading no matter what anyone tells you - most of the traders interviewed in the Jack Swager books say that you need some 'luck' to really succeed long term.
Even though I only started trading with Concept from May 08 I'd actually been following the results pretty closely from the turn of the year. When you analyse a whole years results this recent draw-down gets put into perspective - you'd still be up well over 300% based on flat stakes.
Thirdly, you will find the kind of small print that you mention on pretty much anything which has anykind of connection to the financial markets. It's the nature of living in a 'Nanny State'!
Just out of interest, have you considered opening a 'play money' account with someone like Capital Spreads and still running the Concept system? I would suggest that this would be on benefit to you.
Take care,
Steve.
I think you are right. I said from the beginning I will keep using concpet for a year before I pass complete judgement. I failed in that respect, because I got caught up in a different manual trading strategy. I know it only takes a few minutes every night, but I went on holiday (I tend to do this a lot) and forgot about it. When I came back I was doing so well with my current strategy I just lost interest. I reckon I will run concept in the future simply to add another 65% to my bank.
If you risk 1% the drawdown we all experienced would be a lot less! If you started at the beginning of the year you would have made 65%. My current manual strategy generates a lot more profit than that, but it still risks about 1%-2% and will increase the bank by around 400%-600% annually. So why not simply add that extra 65% to your bank with minimal effort. Increasing your stake size to keep with 1% could see 65% turn into 85%.
Saying that my manual strategy has only been proven over the last month and a half with hardly any drawdown. I am just waiting to see how I cope psychologically with a few losing trades (which will happen). I have learnt more than ever how important psychology is over this holiday season. Untill my psychology is rock solid I don't think I will trade concept, because I know to expect big drawdowns.
Viewpoint
Hi Steve,
You and I now see Concept from different viewpoints. I don't really disagree with your approach, because you can do what you like with your own money. But I do think most Concept users are probably a lot less successful in this trading business than you obviously are, and were taken in by the wonderful "equity curve", much of which I do believe was produced by curve fitted back testing.
I was going to write a lot and get really really boring again. But rather than that, let me just ask, what percentage of users are going to be willing to write a cheque for £500 for continuing signals, when the year of so called "free data" expires? Throwing good money after bad. Seems like a no brainer to me!
Many users do have a psychological problem in letting go because they feel that they should at least give Concept a chance to pay for itself. I think their psychology will change when they are invited to pay another £500!!
Oh forgot to say, on the subject of demo trading Concept, there is no point. All I have to do is look at the published results. I know they are now a reliable and accurate forward test on a live account, unlike my suspicions about the longer history.
Hi Steve,
You and I now see Concept from different viewpoints. I don't really disagree with your approach, because you can do what you like with your own money. But I do think most Concept users are probably a lot less successful in this trading business than you obviously are, and were taken in by the wonderful "equity curve", much of which I do believe was produced by curve fitted back testing.
I was going to write a lot and get really really boring again. But rather than that, let me just ask, what percentage of users are going to be willing to write a cheque for £500 for continuing signals, when the year of so called "free data" expires? Throwing good money after bad. Seems like a no brainer to me!
Many users do have a psychological problem in letting go because they feel that they should at least give Concept a chance to pay for itself. I think their psychology will change when they are invited to pay another £500!!
Oh forgot to say, on the subject of demo trading Concept, there is no point. All I have to do is look at the published results. I know they are now a reliable and accurate forward test on a live account, unlike my suspicions about the longer history.
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stevespray
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I'm guessing that if you started with Concept in Jan 08 then you won't have any problems with further subscription to the data since you'd be sat on a fairly hefty profit assuming that you followed all the signals. Obviously users who are in a draw-down still have 6 months or so to make up the losses.
I do see your view point by the way. I hope that I don't sound like I am lecturing!
Can I pose a question? What would you do with your Concept subscription if, over your remaining 6 months of inclusive data, the system shows clear signs of picking up again? Would your mindset alter towards the system?
With regard to the results (implied or otherwise).... I think that one of the problems is that the results dont prepare the clients for the actual day to day emotions which trading with real money throws up. People just get blinded by the profits and fail to understand that its far from a smooth path especially if you are in the 'bank building' phase where you are more or less perminantly 20 losing trades from being bankrupt.
What you say about 'trading success' could be true. It's taken me just about 10 years to get to where I am. If someone asked me to write a book about it it would NOT be very motivating in nature! Why? Because what I had to say would be mundane and boring and as such not the kind of stuff which someone just setting out on their trading journey would really want to hear. What they seem to like hearing is stuff like "I work 15 minutes per week and earned £800,000 last year". If I wrote "You need to get used to working odd and some times long hours, sometime for little or no reward, then trading could be for you" then I might not sell many books!
If you think about it there is a good chance that people will give up on the Concept system because they started with real money. Any trading book worth its salt will always advise trading on a demo account and becoming profitable on that for a few months before risking real money. The problem with losing money on a newly bought system is that psychologically you instantly attach the feelings of pain / fear / loss with that system before you've had a chance to build asteem in the system. That seems to of occured with a few peeps on here who bought the system 6 months ago.
I suggested keeping a Demo Account so you could keep much closer to the action. My feeling was that it might 'train' you with a degree of resilience which you are going to need in this game.
Steve.
I do see your view point by the way. I hope that I don't sound like I am lecturing!
Can I pose a question? What would you do with your Concept subscription if, over your remaining 6 months of inclusive data, the system shows clear signs of picking up again? Would your mindset alter towards the system?
With regard to the results (implied or otherwise).... I think that one of the problems is that the results dont prepare the clients for the actual day to day emotions which trading with real money throws up. People just get blinded by the profits and fail to understand that its far from a smooth path especially if you are in the 'bank building' phase where you are more or less perminantly 20 losing trades from being bankrupt.
What you say about 'trading success' could be true. It's taken me just about 10 years to get to where I am. If someone asked me to write a book about it it would NOT be very motivating in nature! Why? Because what I had to say would be mundane and boring and as such not the kind of stuff which someone just setting out on their trading journey would really want to hear. What they seem to like hearing is stuff like "I work 15 minutes per week and earned £800,000 last year". If I wrote "You need to get used to working odd and some times long hours, sometime for little or no reward, then trading could be for you" then I might not sell many books!
If you think about it there is a good chance that people will give up on the Concept system because they started with real money. Any trading book worth its salt will always advise trading on a demo account and becoming profitable on that for a few months before risking real money. The problem with losing money on a newly bought system is that psychologically you instantly attach the feelings of pain / fear / loss with that system before you've had a chance to build asteem in the system. That seems to of occured with a few peeps on here who bought the system 6 months ago.
I suggested keeping a Demo Account so you could keep much closer to the action. My feeling was that it might 'train' you with a degree of resilience which you are going to need in this game.
Steve.
Bloodyhell, Concept has woken up a bit trades wise eh?
Or are the only people still reading this thread Sandy and Pvisser? :cheesy:
rwhittington
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The current trade is only my 4th win since starting with Concept in August and easily the biggest!
Yes it looks pretty good to me. I hope it does well through these next few months
