Concept FX

Hi sandie
Yup i am sticking to the system too..my 3rd loss in 6 weeks now..i am short on oil at 145.61
and im taking a little gamble on it not reaching $150 fingers crossed..why did i take it...im assuming its a blip..no TA used....so i deserve to get my fingers burnt.
objective for me is 143.00
 
Well done for sticking to the system (although I bailed out). It is my aim to to be a trader, so did monitor it as it went, and my exit was chosen. Concept allows me the freedom the place trades at the end of the day and forget about them and learn during the day.

I dont think I will be an intraday trader, as I dont want to spend all day in front of the PC. My eyes will never cope, and I can think of better ways to go blind.
 
Damn what did I miss!! Been in a meeting and then lunch, and EUR/USD gone through the roof. I actually wanted to close the trade this morning as my charts were saying 'up' rather than concepts 'down', however as you guys have already pointed out, you gotta stick to the system.
Oh well, have a good weekend folks.
 
I am sure that the trigger will be deleted tonight on the concept system tonight, but will keep my eye on it just in case :) I dont expect to get much from and will probably cancel the open order intime for them to set it again.

Oil is very up and down at the moment. Everyone feels that $150 will happen soon, but the $147 mark is really being tested at the moment, and appears to be holding. This should be the point where all the american fund managers cash in, and we see the markets fall down again. Next time it gets to this mark, I think it will go through it, and upto $150. I may be very wrong, and I will own up to it.
 
LookUpLeg said:
Damn what did I miss!! Been in a meeting and then lunch, and EUR/USD gone through the roof. I actually wanted to close the trade this morning as my charts were saying 'up' rather than concepts 'down', however as you guys have already pointed out, you gotta stick to the system.
Oh well, have a good weekend folks.
Click to expand...
Keep an eye on T2W's economics calendar (or better still for FX, this one Forex news trading calendar with economic events analysis and currency exchange charts) and you'll know when the potentially market-moving news is about to hit the fan. Bloomberg tv announces the figures as they happen (also available as a feed on T2W here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/radioandtv.php).
Only thing is, if you're going to stick with Concept's methodology, you might be better off blissfully ignoring the news as some of the spikes that result are hugely misleading.
I tend to try not to be in a trade when there's a potentially big figures release imminent, but then I'm more of an hourly man than the longterm positions Concept seem to take.
 
SandyW said:
My first ever spreadbet in 2004 was a "gamble" on the FTSE100, just to test the water with a bank of £1000. I doubled my bank in 2 days! Wow I thought I'm gonna be RICH! Within a week I had put £5000 more into my bank, and upped my stakes. Need I say more? I wonder whether my mindset for the next 4 years would have been healthier if I had been wiped out in the first trade, which is what I really deserved.
Click to expand...

:LOL:2004 - that's when I first got into spreadbetting, with pretty similar consequences! FTSE had been going up for months and it looked to me like there was nothing to stop it recovering the dizzy heights of 2000. This SB stuff was easy - why doesn't everyone do it? Cue the rollercoaster ride and another fool being parted from his money. It's a bummer at the time, but nothing focuses the mind quite like losing your own money.:smart:
 
Arek

Dpending on what plaform you trade with, it may be under commodities, energy, crude.

I trade on brent crude, depending how long you want to be in for will depend on your conract length (daily, August etc).

Please take this advice, if you have not traded oil, be very careful, and start with a very small price per point. It is volatile and can move very quickly (100+ points in a minute). Set your stop loss where you are comfortable (i usually go 200 points), and also watch the time of day. Check your charts to see the busy times of the day when it changes rapidly. Where it closed today it can go either way, so I have no advice at the moment what way to go. I am stil short, but may close the positon, and wait for it t test the $147 barrier again, as this could be the time for it to break free.

I know we have changed course slightly, but oil is such a big indicator of the USD at the moment, and has far more of an impact that any other data at the moment (in my opinion).

Trade carefully and wisely.
 
Hi All,

Here is a site which I have found interesting. The author provides a 3 times a week technical commentary on the global markets, and you can subscribe to receive it by email or simply read on the site.

It is also educational in that he gives a lot of background info on TA.

Of course he is marketting his Australian charting software, but the free info has no strings attached.

Incredible Charts: Trading Diary
 
Crude Oil

jason0181 said:
Arek

Dpending on what plaform you trade with, it may be under commodities, energy, crude.

I trade on brent crude, depending how long you want to be in for will depend on your conract length (daily, August etc).

Please take this advice, if you have not traded oil, be very careful, and start with a very small price per point. It is volatile and can move very quickly (100+ points in a minute). Set your stop loss where you are comfortable (i usually go 200 points), and also watch the time of day. Check your charts to see the busy times of the day when it changes rapidly. Where it closed today it can go either way, so I have no advice at the moment what way to go. I am stil short, but may close the positon, and wait for it t test the $147 barrier again, as this could be the time for it to break free.

I know we have changed course slightly, but oil is such a big indicator of the USD at the moment, and has far more of an impact that any other data at the moment (in my opinion).

Trade carefully and wisely.
Click to expand...

Hi,

I much prefer to trade the US Light Crude. Maybe it was just CMC, but they wouldn't allow trading Brent Crude after UK hours, and the most movement seems to occur in US time.

I too would urge great caution trading oil. Of late it has flashed up and down very scarily, and you could lose big time in the space of say 15 minutes! A one dollar move in the price at £1 per point is a win or loss of £100. It has been moving rapidly up and down by $10.

Gold has just broken out upwards, and I think is a more predicatable bet. Even so it is a lot less predictable than it used to be.
 
Sandy

It looks like a good site, with lots of interesting things to read.

I think Gold will be pushing the $1000 mark again this week, and is much less volatile. I have no idea what the forex market is going to do this week, but will put my faith in concept and see where it goes.
 
Gold, Oil, Concept

jason0181 said:
Sandy

It looks like a good site, with lots of interesting things to read.

I think Gold will be pushing the $1000 mark again this week, and is much less volatile. I have no idea what the forex market is going to do this week, but will put my faith in concept and see where it goes.
Click to expand...

Hi Jason,

With a big stake to which I was adding, and not taking profits, I was way way up when Gold was rising inexorably in March. I should have realised it would blow off, as I was caught in exactly the same way in May 2006. I always imagine I will learn from experience, but end up just repeating the same greedy mistakes. I err on the side of greed not fear. I'm now in the classic bind (again), in that having bailed out too late when Gold was going down, I cannot now afford to risk a similar stake on the way up! I'm not sure it will hit $1000 this next week, but there is a good chance of it doing it by the end of the month.

As for Oil, Twiggs on Incredible Charts reckons the TA target is now $157! But of course it won't get there in a straight line, and trades will need clever managing. A trailing stop loss $2 below is the way to go I think, and buy back in if/when there is a further pull back.

The one pending trade on Concept could be a real winner as it should trigger near strong resistance close to the all time high, and bounce down fast. But it could break out up, couldn't it, because it has also been consolidating after a strong uptrend which started in March. Discipline needed, so I'll go with Concept.
 
Sandy

It sounds like you have had some fun with the markets over the past few years. I am new to this, but learning quick.

The way oil tested the $147 mark before pulling back does lead me to think that it will break through this week, and the last time it broke out, there was a $10 increase, so fingers crossed there is another 1000 point change. It costs me so much to fill my car up now, I need to claw back some of the costs somewhere.

I agree with you on the current concept trigger. It looks good to fall back 200 pips, before surging again, providing it does not get hover too long a the current level. Concept claim to use 50 TA criteria, and when a certain number agree that is when the trigger comes. If this one does not come off then there will be another one along soon.

What I am enjoying with the concept system, is getting the alerts an trying to reverse engineer their logic, and then use it going foward. They are getting a 50% success rate, which is not that bad.
 
hi guys
sorry moving away for this one,
andy if steve the trader could make so much in two years with no effort,
why would he retire?
 
Hello everyone,

Have posted a couple of times but then concentrated on my trading. Interested in this thread because I did consider the possibility of buying ConceptFX, but decided against. No criticism of the software or those who bought it.
I am a veteran of stockmarket trading having traded since June 1982, about 2months before the Dow broke its long bear stance, by rising 45 points to cross the 800 or 900 mark. In the last 7 months I have liquidated everything and now do not have a single share at all.

Decided to try FX when someone on a chatroom mentioned Forexkiller software costing £49. As I had no idea about Fx, I bought it and found it generally awful at giving the right alerts but sometimes good. It does save me a lot of time in listing the last 10 closing prices and last 10 closing highs and lows. So the £49 was not wasted.
Still totally virgin at FX, I then bought its sister product, FAPS (forex autopilot system) £56. It actually trades for you by opening and closing when it makes you 20 pips. Brilliant on the demo a/c, but on a live a/c it was 50/50. You have to watch it because it sometimes opens a trade that you know is the wrong thing to do simply from observation. I had to close a couple of its trades straight after it opened and lost the spread. Another shortcoming is that it will not open a new trade once there is a trade open. Overall, I actually made several hundred pounds, so cannot complain.
All this time I was observing the chosen 4 or 5 pairs of currencies very carefully and began to trade without it, but thinking should I buy ConceptFX or not. My wife and sons were against it due to the cost. One said I should observe and trade and if I learn't enough without losing £4000, then I am better off.

I can definitely say that I am glad I didn't buy it. I began trading in April and after taking into account all the losses, I made more than £2200. In May I made more than £2400, and in June my profit exceeded £5600. Since the 1stJuly my profit is £3011. It is probably beginners luck, but as long as I can do it I will continue with my method of trading. If at some point in the future I begin to lose consistently, I will then consider an alternative strategy.
By the way I also realised that every single loss I took was over the time span completely unnecessary, as the prices of the currency pair returned to the original breakeven, and some then went into profits if I had not closed it.
I stopped putting stop losses as it only caused me to incur unnecessary losses. I use hedges when needed.
I only open trades of a certain size taking into account the capital I have and always assuming that my opening trade may or will not go into profit straight away. So in a worst case scenario I know that I have the means to carry the temporary/floating losses or average down.
I am certain my method of trading has its flaws, but then FX trading is risky and if I want to trade I must accept the risk.
There will always be floating losses but observation shows me that over time those floating losses go to breakeven and some become profits.
I am at my screen by 8a.m. and finish at midnight or thereabouts, but not continuously. If anything comes up or I have to go out I just leave my screen and do whatever I have to. Sometimes I am away for hours, but my Takeprofits are always in place. Soon I will be off on my holidays.
I take FX trading seriously and hope to carry on trading as long as I am mentally and physically able to.
I have no objection to spending long hours at my screen as long as it is necessary and it makes me profits. After all if I was at work don't I have to be there for at least 8 hours plus commuting time.
By doing this from home I am free to switch off when I have to. Most importantly I am enjoying myself. The stockmarket has been awful for some time now, but this is different.

Cheers and all the best.

Remember I am not criticising those who bought ConceptFX. I like to see how ConceptFX is doing and that is why I went on this thread 2 months ago, but I do not check it daily.
Good luck to all of you. We all want to make some profits.

I forgot to say that in April I actually tried the three Ducks trading system quoted on this forum and lost. Also followed OZ's tip also quoted here and lost. Never Again.
 
Jap

Thanks for you comments. The beauty of Concept for me was the end of day trading, and waiting to get into a position to gain 200-300 pips.

I am sure your methods are very sound, but I do not have the time at the moment to be infront of a trading screen from 8am to midnight. I have read other threads from people who have been trading for 40hours straight, and only come up with a few £'s profit. I do not see this as an easy get quick system, but a start into forex.

Keep making good profits.
 
I've just finished reading this thread from start to finish. Interesting stuff. Many thanks to all who have contributed, large and small.

Andy, please could you email me a copy of Dante's up to date journal, I'm sure that'd make some interesting reading. [email protected]

I intend to contribute my own knowledge and experience as I spend more time here. This thread has been a great advert for this forum, I'm sure much more of this forum will be just as refreshing and enlightening.
 
griffb23 said:
hi guys
sorry moving away for this one,
andy if steve the trader could make so much in two years with no effort,
why would he retire?
Click to expand...


Oh Griff your so synical..lol...but i agree with u...20 mins a night is all you need for this....what would one do at 40 with no job?.....once you have bought ur porsche, speed boat and mansion..ohh and the blondes ...............tch id keep working too.lol
 
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