bbmac
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The screenshot below shows the components of the main charts across all time frames, (lifted from Part I doc, attached to page 10, post 74.)
The screenshot below shows the components of the main charts across all time frames, (lifted from Part I doc, attached to page 10, post 74.)
bbmac
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Nfp...Wayne McDonnel (FXBootcamp)
I attended the Monthly NFP webinar organised by Fxstreet.com featuring Fx Bootcamp's Wayne McDonnel on Friday.
I have attended a few in the past, ...it's not really my thing with all the host's whooping and wailing and getting over excited about, well frankly, nothing,...but that's his style and that's fair enough. He also attracts large numbers to the webinar (over 800 on Friday) and his general messages about trading are good ones,...well certainly in the webinar, I cannot speak for the content of fxbootcamp.
What surprised me was that after the -598k NFP #, upward revision to the previous sub -500k # and increase in Un-emp rateto 7.6% Wayne argued that he expected to see a broad $ rally. He was focusing in on eurusd and despite the obvious $ weakness after the intial knee jerk $ buying post NFP release he completely ruled out of trading the market's reaction as it did not fall into line with what he thought the reaction should be.
I posed the question in the chat room 'What happened to trade what you see not what you think,...the market doesn't care what we think' but had no response to it. (To be fair questions and other dialogue was coming in thick and fast in the chat text window, so he could well have missed it.) After a while Wayne actually decided to pack up trading for the day as the market reaction was not in keeping with his belief of how the market should have reacted (which he may well be right in over the longer term?) he used the rest of the webinar to outline and discuss some useful/interesting predictions of where he saw the U.s and world economy going, threats to it, inter-market correlations and other more fundamental stuff, interspersed with sublimal marketing re Fxbootcamp and his recently authored book, and the obligatory whooping and wailing.
Whatever the case, I though it served as a valuable lesson;
Trade what you see, not what you think-the market doesn't care what you think
Sometimes the market reacts in the opposite way to what we might conventionally expect and any pre-conceptions can hinder your ability to react when your trading edge presents itself.
I attended the Monthly NFP webinar organised by Fxstreet.com featuring Fx Bootcamp's Wayne McDonnel on Friday.
I have attended a few in the past, ...it's not really my thing with all the host's whooping and wailing and getting over excited about, well frankly, nothing,...but that's his style and that's fair enough. He also attracts large numbers to the webinar (over 800 on Friday) and his general messages about trading are good ones,...well certainly in the webinar, I cannot speak for the content of fxbootcamp.
What surprised me was that after the -598k NFP #, upward revision to the previous sub -500k # and increase in Un-emp rateto 7.6% Wayne argued that he expected to see a broad $ rally. He was focusing in on eurusd and despite the obvious $ weakness after the intial knee jerk $ buying post NFP release he completely ruled out of trading the market's reaction as it did not fall into line with what he thought the reaction should be.
I posed the question in the chat room 'What happened to trade what you see not what you think,...the market doesn't care what we think' but had no response to it. (To be fair questions and other dialogue was coming in thick and fast in the chat text window, so he could well have missed it.) After a while Wayne actually decided to pack up trading for the day as the market reaction was not in keeping with his belief of how the market should have reacted (which he may well be right in over the longer term?) he used the rest of the webinar to outline and discuss some useful/interesting predictions of where he saw the U.s and world economy going, threats to it, inter-market correlations and other more fundamental stuff, interspersed with sublimal marketing re Fxbootcamp and his recently authored book, and the obligatory whooping and wailing.
Whatever the case, I though it served as a valuable lesson;
Trade what you see, not what you think-the market doesn't care what you think
Sometimes the market reacts in the opposite way to what we might conventionally expect and any pre-conceptions can hinder your ability to react when your trading edge presents itself.
TheLaughingCook
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Larry Pesavento - Trade what you see, not what you think. How to profit from pattern recognition. I have attended FXBootcamp webinars on NFP. Actually, there is a much more elegant way to trade the news, and that is BEFORE the announcement. Jimmy Young at erusdtrader.net, with his more than 26 years as a bank trader definitely guides you with more clarity and confidence through this whole process....... well that`s at least my opinion. And the last time I attended it was sponsored by GFT and I don`t like their platform ( my subjective choice ). But it was definitely a learning lesson, and sometimes you learn more by watching without judging and then quietly knowing that this is NOT the way you want to trade........
bbmac
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Re-entry to an uptrend-optimum tech conditions
In order to find a hi-probability area in which to get involved with a trend (uptrend example used), first of all identify a trend [per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis] that exists on at least the intermediate t/f. (in this case 5min)
On any break of resistance (previous swing hi=previous resistance=potential RBS when approached from the topside) identify the potential RBS zone that is formed by that previous swing hi and any confluence of other potential supp/res factors that may exist around it.
On any pullback to the potential rbs zone - look to identify one of the repeating indicator set-ups and an individual price action trigger on the time frame below that the trend exists upon, ie in this case the trigger t/f (1min.)
The optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate HL on both the t/f it develops on and the t/f above it into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
In the 5min uptrend example above all conditions being in place the 1min Re-entry set-up that resulted at the potential RBS zone saw a with uptrend follow thru to a new HH.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where an uptrend extends to the higher trend t/f [in this case 30min] (+) too, it may be that there will be a deeper pullback to a trend t/f potential RBS zone, in which case a Re-entry set-up on the intermediate (5min) t/f may develop at the trend t/f potential RBS zone, and this should coincide with a Reversal set-up on the trigger t/f (1min.)
In this situation the optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate HL on both the t/f it develops on (5min-intermediate) and the t/f above it (the 30min trend t/f) into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
Similarly the optimum conditions re the Macd histogram at time of set-up would be
* 30min (trend t/f) crossed up above zero axis
* 1hr preferably crossed up above zero axis and pointing up, but if not crossed up at least pointing up.
It is the confluence of the (hidden divergence/band deviation) repeating indicator based set-up with individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential RBS on the t/f above the re-entry set-up, into whose trend (per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis) an entry is sought, that results in a hi-probability trading opportunity
G/L
In order to find a hi-probability area in which to get involved with a trend (uptrend example used), first of all identify a trend [per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis] that exists on at least the intermediate t/f. (in this case 5min)
On any break of resistance (previous swing hi=previous resistance=potential RBS when approached from the topside) identify the potential RBS zone that is formed by that previous swing hi and any confluence of other potential supp/res factors that may exist around it.
On any pullback to the potential rbs zone - look to identify one of the repeating indicator set-ups and an individual price action trigger on the time frame below that the trend exists upon, ie in this case the trigger t/f (1min.)
The optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate HL on both the t/f it develops on and the t/f above it into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
In the 5min uptrend example above all conditions being in place the 1min Re-entry set-up that resulted at the potential RBS zone saw a with uptrend follow thru to a new HH.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where an uptrend extends to the higher trend t/f [in this case 30min] (+) too, it may be that there will be a deeper pullback to a trend t/f potential RBS zone, in which case a Re-entry set-up on the intermediate (5min) t/f may develop at the trend t/f potential RBS zone, and this should coincide with a Reversal set-up on the trigger t/f (1min.)
In this situation the optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate HL on both the t/f it develops on (5min-intermediate) and the t/f above it (the 30min trend t/f) into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
Similarly the optimum conditions re the Macd histogram at time of set-up would be
* 30min (trend t/f) crossed up above zero axis
* 1hr preferably crossed up above zero axis and pointing up, but if not crossed up at least pointing up.
It is the confluence of the (hidden divergence/band deviation) repeating indicator based set-up with individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential RBS on the t/f above the re-entry set-up, into whose trend (per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis) an entry is sought, that results in a hi-probability trading opportunity
G/L
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bbmac
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Re-entry to a downtrend-optimum tech conditions
In order to find a hi-probability area in which to get involved with a trend (downtrend example used), first of all identify a trend [per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis] that exists on at least the intermediate t/f. (in this case 5min)
On any break of support (previous swing lo=previous support=potential SBR when approached from the underside) identify the potential sbr zone that is formed by that previous swing lo and any confluence of other potential supp/res factors that may exist around it.
On any pullback to the potential sbr zone - look to identify one of the repeating indicator set-ups and an individual price action trigger on the time frame below that the trend exists upon, ie in this case the trigger t/f (1min.)
The optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate LHon both the t/f it develops on and the t/f above it into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
In the 5min downtrend example above all conditions being in place the 1min Re-entry set-up that resulted at the potential RBS zone saw a with uptrend follow thru to a new LL.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where a downtrend extends to the higher trend t/f [in this case 30min] (+) too, it may be that there will be a deeper pullback to a trend t/f potential SBR zone, in which case a Re-entry set-up on the intermediate (5min) t/f may develop at the trend t/f potential SBR zone, and this should coincide with a Reversal set-up on the trigger t/f (1min.)
In this situation the optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate LH on both the t/f it develops on (5min-intermediate) and the t/f above it (the 30min trend t/f) into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
Similarly the optimum conditions re the Macd histogram at time of set-up would be
* 30min (trend t/f) crossed down below zero axis
* 1hr preferably crossed down below zero axis and pointing down, but if not crossed down at least pointing down.
It is the confluence of the (hidden divergence/band deviation) repeating indicator based set-up with individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential SBR on the t/f above the re-entry set-up, into whose trend (per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis) an entry is sought, that results in a hi-probability trading opportunity.
G/L
In order to find a hi-probability area in which to get involved with a trend (downtrend example used), first of all identify a trend [per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis] that exists on at least the intermediate t/f. (in this case 5min)
On any break of support (previous swing lo=previous support=potential SBR when approached from the underside) identify the potential sbr zone that is formed by that previous swing lo and any confluence of other potential supp/res factors that may exist around it.
On any pullback to the potential sbr zone - look to identify one of the repeating indicator set-ups and an individual price action trigger on the time frame below that the trend exists upon, ie in this case the trigger t/f (1min.)
The optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate LHon both the t/f it develops on and the t/f above it into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
In the 5min downtrend example above all conditions being in place the 1min Re-entry set-up that resulted at the potential RBS zone saw a with uptrend follow thru to a new LL.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Where a downtrend extends to the higher trend t/f [in this case 30min] (+) too, it may be that there will be a deeper pullback to a trend t/f potential SBR zone, in which case a Re-entry set-up on the intermediate (5min) t/f may develop at the trend t/f potential SBR zone, and this should coincide with a Reversal set-up on the trigger t/f (1min.)
In this situation the optimum place for the re-entry set-up to develop at is an immediate LH on both the t/f it develops on (5min-intermediate) and the t/f above it (the 30min trend t/f) into whose trend a hi-probability entry is sought.
Similarly the optimum conditions re the Macd histogram at time of set-up would be
* 30min (trend t/f) crossed down below zero axis
* 1hr preferably crossed down below zero axis and pointing down, but if not crossed down at least pointing down.
It is the confluence of the (hidden divergence/band deviation) repeating indicator based set-up with individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential SBR on the t/f above the re-entry set-up, into whose trend (per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis) an entry is sought, that results in a hi-probability trading opportunity.
G/L
bbmac
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2 x hi-probability set-ups
Gbpusd this early London/European morning session:
Price reaches the potential resistance of 61.8% fib 5723-3505, offers touted in region...a 1min Reversal Extreme develops with supoporting o/b conditions to 5min small charts, although no clear 5min main supporting set-up,...+20+pips gain available resulst before a 1min Re-entry type 2 into the 5min uptrend @ pot rbs = 38.2% fib of the i/day run up and previous 5/30min sw hi zone...(re macd histograms @ set-up - 5min crossed up and 30min pointing up although not yet crossed.) Set-up has seen a with uptrend follow thru to a HH, +60+ pips at time of writing.
The potential rbs is shown below;
Hi-probability trading opportunities = the confluence of repeating indicator based set-ups with an individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs, within the context of overall price action conditions per classic peak/valley analysis (ie range or trend.)
Gbpusd this early London/European morning session:
Price reaches the potential resistance of 61.8% fib 5723-3505, offers touted in region...a 1min Reversal Extreme develops with supoporting o/b conditions to 5min small charts, although no clear 5min main supporting set-up,...+20+pips gain available resulst before a 1min Re-entry type 2 into the 5min uptrend @ pot rbs = 38.2% fib of the i/day run up and previous 5/30min sw hi zone...(re macd histograms @ set-up - 5min crossed up and 30min pointing up although not yet crossed.) Set-up has seen a with uptrend follow thru to a HH, +60+ pips at time of writing.
The potential rbs is shown below;
Hi-probability trading opportunities = the confluence of repeating indicator based set-ups with an individual price action trigger @ pre-identified potential supp/res/sbr/rbs, within the context of overall price action conditions per classic peak/valley analysis (ie range or trend.)
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bbmac
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Caveat to story below
As a caveat to this story, I traded the 1349pm gmt post NFP release 1min [trigger] Reversal Extreme with 5min [intermediate] Reversal Aii seq supporting set-up, long in Gbpusd, and although I closed at a pip gain I was happy with, as I was waiting for the trade to play out Wayne ellucidated a very convincing argument as to why there should be $ strength not $ weakness on the NFP # release, which as I say above may well turn out to be the case over the longer term, but this was NFP and a bad # at that so it seemed more obvious that on the day of the release and certainly in it's immediate aftermath, there was the higher probability of a continued gbpusd rally and some $ weakness.
The point is that it is easy to imagine that someone else knows more/better than you particularly if they have a shiny website with bells and whistles and host webinars for FxStreet etc, but you must trade your plan and yours alone, and not be influenced by others particualrly in this case when a technical trading edge developed -vs- a fundamental case for the opposite direction in the pairing being more probable.
As a caveat to this story, I traded the 1349pm gmt post NFP release 1min [trigger] Reversal Extreme with 5min [intermediate] Reversal Aii seq supporting set-up, long in Gbpusd, and although I closed at a pip gain I was happy with, as I was waiting for the trade to play out Wayne ellucidated a very convincing argument as to why there should be $ strength not $ weakness on the NFP # release, which as I say above may well turn out to be the case over the longer term, but this was NFP and a bad # at that so it seemed more obvious that on the day of the release and certainly in it's immediate aftermath, there was the higher probability of a continued gbpusd rally and some $ weakness.
The point is that it is easy to imagine that someone else knows more/better than you particularly if they have a shiny website with bells and whistles and host webinars for FxStreet etc, but you must trade your plan and yours alone, and not be influenced by others particualrly in this case when a technical trading edge developed -vs- a fundamental case for the opposite direction in the pairing being more probable.
bbmac
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re: Re-entry described in post #487
At the time of set-up (0859am gmt.. a 4764ask entry) price was only some 66pips up from it's current intraday low of 4698, so in terms of trade potential to the upside there was plenty in respect of the average daily pip range of the instrument (100day atr 341.)
As mentioned in post #487 outlining the Re-entry to trend set-up although at the time only the 5min was trending up, that trend was co-existant with the 1hr+ uptrend where a Re-entry set-up of it's own had developed at the lows referred to above.
That 1hr Re-entry type 1 set-up is here;
The macd histograms on the next 2 t/f's up from and at time of the 0859am gmt 1min Re-entry set-up were crossed up on the next t/f up from the set-up-5min and crossed up and pointing up on the next higher t/f, the 30min - thus satisfying the set-up criteria for a re-entry long to a next t/f (+) uptrend.
Looking further out beyond the 30min trend t/f, the 1hr macd hist was pointing up too and the 4hr and daily were crossed up -pointing up, all 3 t/f's being in an uptrend per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis.
My point being is that there were plenty of reasons to hold this 'with trend' trade for extended pip gain.(price is up over 150pips from the set-up, correct at time of writing.)
At the time of set-up (0859am gmt.. a 4764ask entry) price was only some 66pips up from it's current intraday low of 4698, so in terms of trade potential to the upside there was plenty in respect of the average daily pip range of the instrument (100day atr 341.)
As mentioned in post #487 outlining the Re-entry to trend set-up although at the time only the 5min was trending up, that trend was co-existant with the 1hr+ uptrend where a Re-entry set-up of it's own had developed at the lows referred to above.
That 1hr Re-entry type 1 set-up is here;
The macd histograms on the next 2 t/f's up from and at time of the 0859am gmt 1min Re-entry set-up were crossed up on the next t/f up from the set-up-5min and crossed up and pointing up on the next higher t/f, the 30min - thus satisfying the set-up criteria for a re-entry long to a next t/f (+) uptrend.
Looking further out beyond the 30min trend t/f, the 1hr macd hist was pointing up too and the 4hr and daily were crossed up -pointing up, all 3 t/f's being in an uptrend per overall price action-classic peak/valley analysis.
My point being is that there were plenty of reasons to hold this 'with trend' trade for extended pip gain.(price is up over 150pips from the set-up, correct at time of writing.)
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bbmac
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Essential Reading-great article
Link below is an article posted to this site about consecutive trading losses, and further compounds my points about the importance of seeking to trade at high probability set-ups only. (Confluence.)
T2W Day Trading & Forex Community
Link below is an article posted to this site about consecutive trading losses, and further compounds my points about the importance of seeking to trade at high probability set-ups only. (Confluence.)
T2W Day Trading & Forex Community
bbmac
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Deeper pullback...high probability trading opportunity
Price in gbpusd sells off from the top of the 1hr rising channel mentioned in post #486, finding Support at the confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi's and the 38.2% of the i/day move up - circled in green in screenshot below;
A 1min Rev Extr ii supported by a 5min Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up develops at the potential rbs confluence providing a hi-probability trading opporunity, the trigger and intermediate set-ups supported by o/s conditions on small charts to 5min.
The 1min Rev Extr ii trigger set-up is below;
The supporting 5min intermediate t/f Re-entry type 1 set-up is here;
The supporting 5min Re-entry type 1 (into 30min trend t/f uptrend) saw the next 2 t/f macd hists as follows:
30min-crossed up , 1hr-crossed up, pointing up, thus satisfying the optimum entry criteria for a re-entry set-up into next t/f trend (+) after a pullback, although it came at a L on the 5min but an immediate HL on the 30min trend t/f into whose uptrend a hi-probability entry was sought. The set-up has just seen+80+ pips gain available and a with trend follow thru to a new HH at time of writing.
Price in gbpusd sells off from the top of the 1hr rising channel mentioned in post #486, finding Support at the confluence of the previous 1hr swing hi's and the 38.2% of the i/day move up - circled in green in screenshot below;
A 1min Rev Extr ii supported by a 5min Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-up develops at the potential rbs confluence providing a hi-probability trading opporunity, the trigger and intermediate set-ups supported by o/s conditions on small charts to 5min.
The 1min Rev Extr ii trigger set-up is below;
The supporting 5min intermediate t/f Re-entry type 1 set-up is here;
The supporting 5min Re-entry type 1 (into 30min trend t/f uptrend) saw the next 2 t/f macd hists as follows:
30min-crossed up , 1hr-crossed up, pointing up, thus satisfying the optimum entry criteria for a re-entry set-up into next t/f trend (+) after a pullback, although it came at a L on the 5min but an immediate HL on the 30min trend t/f into whose uptrend a hi-probability entry was sought. The set-up has just seen+80+ pips gain available and a with trend follow thru to a new HH at time of writing.
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bbmac
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More on character of a trend
I have spoken before about examining the 'character of a trend,' ie does it generally have shallow pullbacks, deep pullbacks etc.
In posts 487 and 492 above I detail 2 Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-ups that occurred in gbpusd today, firstly into the 5min uptrend (post 487) and then as price continued upwards and trend grew to the next higher t/f, and after a deeper pullback - into the then 30min uptrend.
You will see from the posts outlining the Re-entry set-ups that both the 1min Re-entry into the 5min uptrend (post 487) and the 5min Re-entry (timed as a 1min Reversal set-up) into the 30min (+) uptrend (post 492) The set-ups were either a Re-entry type 1 or 2 (very similar) at a confluence of potential rbs being a previous swing hi on the next t/f up with the 38.2% fib of the then intraday move up.
Very often the character of a trend extends to the type of set-up and type of potential rbs/sbr at which price continues with trend after a pullback, across the time frames....and this something to be aware of. Ie like in this example the 5min Re-entry set-up replicated very closely the earlier 1min Re-entry set-up.
I have spoken before about examining the 'character of a trend,' ie does it generally have shallow pullbacks, deep pullbacks etc.
In posts 487 and 492 above I detail 2 Re-entry (to next t/f trend after a pullback) set-ups that occurred in gbpusd today, firstly into the 5min uptrend (post 487) and then as price continued upwards and trend grew to the next higher t/f, and after a deeper pullback - into the then 30min uptrend.
You will see from the posts outlining the Re-entry set-ups that both the 1min Re-entry into the 5min uptrend (post 487) and the 5min Re-entry (timed as a 1min Reversal set-up) into the 30min (+) uptrend (post 492) The set-ups were either a Re-entry type 1 or 2 (very similar) at a confluence of potential rbs being a previous swing hi on the next t/f up with the 38.2% fib of the then intraday move up.
Very often the character of a trend extends to the type of set-up and type of potential rbs/sbr at which price continues with trend after a pullback, across the time frames....and this something to be aware of. Ie like in this example the 5min Re-entry set-up replicated very closely the earlier 1min Re-entry set-up.
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bbmac
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2nd test of proven RBS zone outlined in post 492.
Re Gbpusd Price re-tested the area of the now proven 1hr rbs zone outlined in post 492 above, now a previous swing lo=potential support zone on the 5min chart as shown below;
Another hi-probability trading opportunity results with confluence of the 1min reversal extreme set-up supported by small charts o/s conditions to 5min and although no clear 5min supporting setup, 15min saw a supporting Re-entry type 4 set-up (into 1hr uptrend @ 2nd test of that 1hr prioven rbs zone.)
The set-up went on to see +30+ pip gain available, correct at time of writing and a with trend follow thru to a new HH in the 1hr uptrend. The 1min rev Extr set-up is below:
Re Gbpusd Price re-tested the area of the now proven 1hr rbs zone outlined in post 492 above, now a previous swing lo=potential support zone on the 5min chart as shown below;
Another hi-probability trading opportunity results with confluence of the 1min reversal extreme set-up supported by small charts o/s conditions to 5min and although no clear 5min supporting setup, 15min saw a supporting Re-entry type 4 set-up (into 1hr uptrend @ 2nd test of that 1hr prioven rbs zone.)
The set-up went on to see +30+ pip gain available, correct at time of writing and a with trend follow thru to a new HH in the 1hr uptrend. The 1min rev Extr set-up is below:
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bbmac
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Re-entry to a trend at fib resistance
Gbpusd sells down from point a finding support for a pullbackto the Lh circled in white finding resistance not at a previous swing lo=potential sbr on this 5min t/f, but a cluster of 2 x fibs,....
At the LH circled in white a 1min Re-entry type 2 developed that saw the macd histograms crossed down and/or pinting down on the 5min and 30min (next 2 t/f's up from the re-entry set-up) and indeed extending to the 1hr and 4hr,...resulting in a hi-probability trading opportunity. The set-up saw a with down trend follow thru to a slightly LL before a recovery, resulting in +40+ pips gain available.
The 1min Re-entry type 2 is shown below;
Gbpusd sells down from point a finding support for a pullbackto the Lh circled in white finding resistance not at a previous swing lo=potential sbr on this 5min t/f, but a cluster of 2 x fibs,....
At the LH circled in white a 1min Re-entry type 2 developed that saw the macd histograms crossed down and/or pinting down on the 5min and 30min (next 2 t/f's up from the re-entry set-up) and indeed extending to the 1hr and 4hr,...resulting in a hi-probability trading opportunity. The set-up saw a with down trend follow thru to a slightly LL before a recovery, resulting in +40+ pips gain available.
The 1min Re-entry type 2 is shown below;
First at all, excuse my bad english.
bbmac: I know you from Moneitec chat time. You introduced me in the divergences world.
You haved developed here a great explanation of your DTSM system, showing us different methods of
high probability entry setups.
But, what about the exits?. Only a good money management?. Or wait an opposite signal to close the trade?
bbmac: I know you from Moneitec chat time. You introduced me in the divergences world.
You haved developed here a great explanation of your DTSM system, showing us different methods of
high probability entry setups.
But, what about the exits?. Only a good money management?. Or wait an opposite signal to close the trade?
bbmac
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Hi,..Wow, Moneytec chat room days, you are going back a bit there, lol.
Before I answer your question I would first of all encourage you to read post no, 424 on this thread via the link below; http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...prehensive-trading-system-methodology-53.html Read too T2W Day Trading & Forex Community
I agree that it is the exit that earns the pips but remember that it is the entries that can minimise losses and risk, and this is as important to overall pip gain/profitability.
As a general rule of thumb on these lower time frames that I choose to trade the system/methodology on, and because I have an extremely high strike rate (winning trades as a % of total) I am able to be more flexible with risk:reward than perhaps other lower strike rate systems/methodologies that would require more stringent risk:reward ratios - where reward is equal to/exceeding risk, depending on the historical strike rate, - to maintain overall profitability. (ie the lower the strike rate the more need there is to maintain a higher overall risk:reward ratio .)
a. For 1min trigger set-ups that have no 5min or small chart supporting set-up/conditions I tend to scalp +5+ holding for more with momentum
b. For 1min trigger set-ups that have a 5min + supporting set-up and/or small chart supporting conditions, I try to hold for a minimum 1:1 target
c. For with trend set-ups, and set-ups where price goes quickly/easily in my favour I am more tempted to hold for above 1:1 risk:reward.
d. Once I have secured my 'soft' daily target [aggregated from a hard weekly target) I tend to be more willing to hold set-ups for greater pip gain, particularly 'with trend' set-ups. (See posts 487 and 492 of this thread for trade examples of this.)
e. Typical stop is 17pips.
Because of;
i. My adherence to the rules of the set-ups
ii. Work I undertake in guauging potential support/resistance/sbr/rbs per this system/methodology
(i & ii = highest degree of confluence = highest probability trading opportunities)
iii. The nuances of price action I have come to understand
iv. Intuition hightened by wide experience using this system/methodology as my tactical intraday appoach to the market
I very rarely suffer a losing trade , so that I am able to be flexible with exits along the broad guidleines listed a-d above.
For less experienced users of this system/methodology, my advice re exits is to trade the 'with trend' set-ups and generally those set-ups that have 5min+ main chart supporting set-ups (and small chart supporting conditions) and try to aim for a minimum 1:1 risk:reward.
G/L
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bbmac
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Best advice, read all the docs attached to this thread, the main docs on post 1 page 1 are summarised in the Parts I, II, and III docs attached to post 74, page 10.
Then read the entire thread, even if it takes a few days,...it's all here, with actual trading example after trading example along with other tips and techniques...it will be a good investment of your time if trading any technical trading edge because it deals primarilly with price action and support/resistance. The indicator patterns of bol band deviation and oscillator divergence/extremes add more confluence to the overall trading edge.
Good luck
bbmac
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Re-entry to downtrend set-up @ a H/LH
The screenshot below shows the 5min Re-entry set-up (to 30min downtrend after a pullback) that came at a H on this t/f, but still @ an immediate LH on the 30min t/f into whose downtrend this set-up on the t/f below was indicating a re-entry to after the pullback @ the potential sbr of Tues lo/offers area (mni.)
So not an optimum place for the set-up on the t/f it set-up on but optimum on the t/f above into whose downtrend a hi-probability entry was sought....Price has seen +30+ pips sell off from the set-up (timed as an imperfect Reversal B set-up on 1min trigger) but has yet to see a with trend follow thru to new lows, correct at time of writing.
The other issue with the set-up was that the macd hist on next 2 t/f's up from the set-up although crossed down below axis was pointing up on both t/f's (alright on next higher t/f as retrace/pullback will generally drag it up, but best to see it still pointing down on the t/f above.)
So, what to do?? Well trade the set-up and try and get stop sensibly to b/e and/or take some profit, in case a with trend follow thru to new lows from this set-up does not result, given the non-optimum conditions described above. [The downtrend extends to the 1hr chart and anything can happen.]
Will edit this post below screenshot as price develops.
Edit 0827am gmt: Screenshot below shows the subsequent price action to the set-up above. Price sold off from the set-up @ the H circled in red, to a HL (effective 36pips max pip gain avaialable from 4443bid entry) before a recovery to a HH that would have taken out any stop at B/e.
The screenshot below shows the 5min Re-entry set-up (to 30min downtrend after a pullback) that came at a H on this t/f, but still @ an immediate LH on the 30min t/f into whose downtrend this set-up on the t/f below was indicating a re-entry to after the pullback @ the potential sbr of Tues lo/offers area (mni.)
So not an optimum place for the set-up on the t/f it set-up on but optimum on the t/f above into whose downtrend a hi-probability entry was sought....Price has seen +30+ pips sell off from the set-up (timed as an imperfect Reversal B set-up on 1min trigger) but has yet to see a with trend follow thru to new lows, correct at time of writing.
The other issue with the set-up was that the macd hist on next 2 t/f's up from the set-up although crossed down below axis was pointing up on both t/f's (alright on next higher t/f as retrace/pullback will generally drag it up, but best to see it still pointing down on the t/f above.)
So, what to do?? Well trade the set-up and try and get stop sensibly to b/e and/or take some profit, in case a with trend follow thru to new lows from this set-up does not result, given the non-optimum conditions described above. [The downtrend extends to the 1hr chart and anything can happen.]
Will edit this post below screenshot as price develops.
Edit 0827am gmt: Screenshot below shows the subsequent price action to the set-up above. Price sold off from the set-up @ the H circled in red, to a HL (effective 36pips max pip gain avaialable from 4443bid entry) before a recovery to a HH that would have taken out any stop at B/e.
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