Commodity Trade Time Horizons

minx

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After reading all the posts in here I thought it might be nice to see peoples time horizons with their commodity trades?
I'm in for 1-5 days, although recently I have held a particular product for over a week before it started to move. This does mean I'm not in for the whole of the big moves but my risk is quite tight and so I take small profits and smaller losses (at least, thats the plan)
Anyone else trade the same time frame or are you all weeks/months traders?
 
minx said:
After reading all the posts in here I thought it might be nice to see peoples time horizons with their commodity trades?
I'm in for 1-5 days, although recently I have held a particular product for over a week before it started to move. This does mean I'm not in for the whole of the big moves but my risk is quite tight and so I take small profits and smaller losses (at least, thats the plan)
Anyone else trade the same time frame or are you all weeks/months traders?

Good idea to get feeling about fellow commodity traders horizon.

My time frame is as follows:

Spreads: 2 week upwards to 2-3 months (fe KW Z4 - KW K4) or the HO/HU spreads, which I haven't yet traded but tend to go 1-3 months.

Seasonal trades: 1 week upwards

Other setups: wave 5's or occasionally based on 2 or 3 day candle patterns can be anywhere from 1day - week+.
 
I always start my commodity research/study with a look at the longer-term trends (eg. Monthly) and drill down to the weekly/daily charts. I may use intra-day charts to refine my entry.

Commodity trading longer-term can net really big profits for patient position traders, since they trend longer and better than other markets. This is, amongst other reasons, because they are physixal products with underlying commercial interest and hedging.

I start with a view to identifying the bigger moves( lasting weeks/months) and have a separate SB account specifically for these trades (IG INDEX - since wide spreads become less significant the longer the trade, and tax-free status kicks in on any significant profits.)

However, in recognition of the periodic nature of such moves (and the time scales involved in set-up and trigger), I also trade shorter-term (up to intermediate trend). I use another account for these.

It does help, when analysing shorter -term trades (a few days to 2-3 weeks, say) to remember that you SHOULD always position yourself in the direction of the intermediate or longer-term trend. (Since rallies will be larger in an intermediate bull market and declines stronger in an intermediate bear market.)

I always like to familiarise myself with the fundamental make-up of the commodity in question, whether short ot longer-term.

For short-term trades (5 days to 2-3 weeks) I use mainly daily support/resistance, trendlines coupled with momentum studies (MACD/Slow stochastic or RSI) for entry/exit signals.

For longer-term position trades, I look at Monthly /Weekly support/resistance, trendline + Weekly MACD studies. Also Fibonacci retracement levels as guidelines. Then drill down to refine entry.

So I have 2 distict strategies for 2 separate trading models. As they are executed in 2 different accounts, there is no conflict between the two.

I would never day-trade the commodites markets.
 
Most import thing a trader needs

Time Horizons are the most import thing a trader needs to understand before they can take advise from anyone. If the newsletter or teacher uses a non-complementary time horizon then the information is worst than useless.
minx said:
This does mean I'm not in for the whole of the big moves but my risk is quite tight and so I take small profits.
Theoretically seasonals should be six months. Bottom at harvest, top at drought. Tiger on spreads use to give us these. Moore tends to find the highest velocity parts of the same trades so we are looking at six to eight weeks on the individual spreads, but because the trend is longer we may get three different spread combinations on the same seasonal pattern..

For example Meal might trend from February to May. We might be advised of a spread in February a pyramid trade in March, another level in April all ending in May. The Seasonal we are trading may be three months long. But because of volume and liquidity issues we have to trade different contract pairs, averaging from 6 to eight weeks.
 
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