Clown's Weekly 34.
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janebowles
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yubaba said:
Hi yubaba,
I think it's a Gann-line
The Dutch Clown
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You have lost me completely
Since June I have been posting these attachement charts and now in october you ask me what it is?! Even when the title of the post could tell you or the text in the post anyway. You must have been drinking quite some .... Just wondering if you did understand completely the charts Pacito put up since they connect.
Since June I have been posting these attachement charts and now in october you ask me what it is?! Even when the title of the post could tell you or the text in the post anyway. You must have been drinking quite some .... Just wondering if you did understand completely the charts Pacito put up since they connect.
The Dutch Clown said:
You will have to do with this thumbnail this week because I will be enjoying good food and excellent wine in the region where it originates. In excellent company of course.
Pacito
To be seen as extension from the pictures I posted earlier, and as addendum to the ones from Clown.
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janebowles
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Pacito said:
I see the figure is still in line with your expectations for the new high between the sixth of november and the early beginning of december. So far, so good.
I wish you an excellent trip to France. Are you going to the Bourgogne, the Bordeaux area or the
Pays d'Oc? This last erea has new and excellent wines. Enjoy yourself and thank you for the new thumbnail.
JaneB
The Dutch Clown
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Week 41.
Let’s do some Elliott Wave Analysis this week since it has been a while and there are a few outrageous wave counts flying around in space. The question whether or not the long term wave count is presently a third or a fifth wave is less relevant since it should not effect trading positions in the different timeframes yet. Just a quick calculation tells us that before the end of next month we will have to study the exact differences for those waves. And given the different levels of wave counts they primarily point upwards as they provide many levels of trend indication. We will therefore take a closer look at the bit starting at 409,56 (5)which for now in the overall picture is the fifth wave from 217,80 as best fit in reference to mister Elliott his findings.
The wave patterns still open for the 409,56 wave are Extension3C, Extension5C and ImpulseC in all three options wave five starts at 460,17 (5:5). If you consider that the target for wave 5 >485,78 in the first pattern you can imagine that it, at this point in time, is the best fitting. If we have a closer look at the inter wave relations we see that a first best fit time wise would be coming up Monday October 9th . This doesn’t mean that it should be the pattern you would use to base your trading decisions on there are more techniques available to help you to isolate a preferred pattern you can use for trading. And even the Elliott definitions itself provide help here since, the given trending mode, the interrelated waves price\time wise and looking at specific details within the different waves, all provide additional information. The attachment shows the wave count option with the wave pattern that utilizes the longest timeframe and the relevant price targets are included.
So this week it is required to look a bit closer at the market as we might be able to pick up the signals soon rather than late. Mind you that I also have a little help from my friend W.D. Gann who’s findings indicate to Monday as well as time and price square for 460,17 but if the AEX will be able to meet that target remains to be seen. Back to Elliott wave count the next best fitting day will be October 26th and will of course implicate the extended 5th wave leaving us two options. If we take a closer look at this last fifth wave the best Elliott fit for now means a third wave (5:5:3)up which is due on Monday again and this is the sort of last extension time wise so if the AEX will not perform a new high early this week we are in for a different scenario.
Mind you while we are talking about 5th waves here it needs to be said again that typical behavior of an average investor would be that he or she would think that all’s well and that there is no end to where the prices would go up. One of the side effects is the item in the news explaining to us that new horizon’s are there as the DJIA is at new all time highs. The more general Technical Analysts notice a complex combination of bearish divergences in their favorite indicator.
In the above posts we have shown that different techniques point to the 517 price level. The valid question is whether we are going in a straight line towards it or are we allowed a brake in order to accumulate long positions once more. And you might find some help in answering those types of questions in this post.
So have fun.
Let’s do some Elliott Wave Analysis this week since it has been a while and there are a few outrageous wave counts flying around in space. The question whether or not the long term wave count is presently a third or a fifth wave is less relevant since it should not effect trading positions in the different timeframes yet. Just a quick calculation tells us that before the end of next month we will have to study the exact differences for those waves. And given the different levels of wave counts they primarily point upwards as they provide many levels of trend indication. We will therefore take a closer look at the bit starting at 409,56 (5)which for now in the overall picture is the fifth wave from 217,80 as best fit in reference to mister Elliott his findings.
The wave patterns still open for the 409,56 wave are Extension3C, Extension5C and ImpulseC in all three options wave five starts at 460,17 (5:5). If you consider that the target for wave 5 >485,78 in the first pattern you can imagine that it, at this point in time, is the best fitting. If we have a closer look at the inter wave relations we see that a first best fit time wise would be coming up Monday October 9th . This doesn’t mean that it should be the pattern you would use to base your trading decisions on there are more techniques available to help you to isolate a preferred pattern you can use for trading. And even the Elliott definitions itself provide help here since, the given trending mode, the interrelated waves price\time wise and looking at specific details within the different waves, all provide additional information. The attachment shows the wave count option with the wave pattern that utilizes the longest timeframe and the relevant price targets are included.
So this week it is required to look a bit closer at the market as we might be able to pick up the signals soon rather than late. Mind you that I also have a little help from my friend W.D. Gann who’s findings indicate to Monday as well as time and price square for 460,17 but if the AEX will be able to meet that target remains to be seen. Back to Elliott wave count the next best fitting day will be October 26th and will of course implicate the extended 5th wave leaving us two options. If we take a closer look at this last fifth wave the best Elliott fit for now means a third wave (5:5:3)up which is due on Monday again and this is the sort of last extension time wise so if the AEX will not perform a new high early this week we are in for a different scenario.
Mind you while we are talking about 5th waves here it needs to be said again that typical behavior of an average investor would be that he or she would think that all’s well and that there is no end to where the prices would go up. One of the side effects is the item in the news explaining to us that new horizon’s are there as the DJIA is at new all time highs. The more general Technical Analysts notice a complex combination of bearish divergences in their favorite indicator.
In the above posts we have shown that different techniques point to the 517 price level. The valid question is whether we are going in a straight line towards it or are we allowed a brake in order to accumulate long positions once more. And you might find some help in answering those types of questions in this post.
So have fun.
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janebowles
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The Dutch Clown said:
Thanks again for this excellent and transparent State of the Index Now.
JaneB
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Nice chart, thxs Clown
Dear Clown,
Thanks for your info. I've got a question to ask:
According to the picture you provided I read: subgolf I: 460.17 - 476. 43 = 16.26 points
III: 468.76-485.80 = 17.1
This means golf I is almost equal to golf III. This could indicate a extension in golf 5.
Golf 5 start at 478.67. If I : III : V = 1:1:1 . Golf 5 would be 478.67 + 16.5 = 495.17, which is also shown in your picture. If there would be an extension (i.e. 161.8%) it would be 5xx. How do you think about this?
Thanks
Qwerty
Thanks for your info. I've got a question to ask:
According to the picture you provided I read: subgolf I: 460.17 - 476. 43 = 16.26 points
III: 468.76-485.80 = 17.1
This means golf I is almost equal to golf III. This could indicate a extension in golf 5.
Golf 5 start at 478.67. If I : III : V = 1:1:1 . Golf 5 would be 478.67 + 16.5 = 495.17, which is also shown in your picture. If there would be an extension (i.e. 161.8%) it would be 5xx. How do you think about this?
Thanks
Qwerty
The Dutch Clown
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In the above post I did already take a closer look at the 460,17 wave and found a different wave count 5:5;3 in stead of the 5:5:5 wave count in the attachment. Notice that the wave count in the attachment is in sync with the open Positive Reversal Signal and if correct has severe implications in respect of the 512 price target. You will have to focus on what is actually there and not what you want to see so the question if we move up in a straight line has already been answered.
The Dutch Clown
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The Dutch Clown
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TGIF and we continue to go with the flow
Let’s have a look at a trailing stop today since the AEX seems to be running into price area’s where it has not been for a while. Of course the wave extensions mentioned Monday are still valid but the favorite indicator has become Over Bought and that condition does not seem to stop the bull run yet. So we use for a trailing stop a ZigZag indicator version in the EOD chart. Please note that this is a specific type of indicator that needs to be used for trailing stop purposes only in this case and not to go from long to short the indicator does in fact also generates a neutral status when appropriate. Mind you even the AEX is trying to leave the 409,56 Gann channel, that served extremely well for trading purposes since the start of it, at the upper side today at 492,46.
In order to have the most recent value I will calculate and update the chart after we have opened.
Attachment 2.
Simular chart in Yank'sland.
Let’s have a look at a trailing stop today since the AEX seems to be running into price area’s where it has not been for a while. Of course the wave extensions mentioned Monday are still valid but the favorite indicator has become Over Bought and that condition does not seem to stop the bull run yet. So we use for a trailing stop a ZigZag indicator version in the EOD chart. Please note that this is a specific type of indicator that needs to be used for trailing stop purposes only in this case and not to go from long to short the indicator does in fact also generates a neutral status when appropriate. Mind you even the AEX is trying to leave the 409,56 Gann channel, that served extremely well for trading purposes since the start of it, at the upper side today at 492,46.
In order to have the most recent value I will calculate and update the chart after we have opened.
Attachment 2.
Simular chart in Yank'sland.
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Last edited:
squaring from different starts
Back from Normandy, many oisters, coquilles Saint-Jacques, calvados and cider later.
Some squaring at different starting points. The starting point is directly below the squaring.
There is an amazing coherence in the region 521,x. First we have to manage breaking the 512, but if we do so, there is a chance reaching the 521,x. I am not convinced yet that we're gonna do that without a significant set-back. A date that should be significant is the week after the sixth of november, more specific the 10th of november. Untill then I reckon the trend will keep its promise.
Pacito
Back from Normandy, many oisters, coquilles Saint-Jacques, calvados and cider later.
Some squaring at different starting points. The starting point is directly below the squaring.
There is an amazing coherence in the region 521,x. First we have to manage breaking the 512, but if we do so, there is a chance reaching the 521,x. I am not convinced yet that we're gonna do that without a significant set-back. A date that should be significant is the week after the sixth of november, more specific the 10th of november. Untill then I reckon the trend will keep its promise.
Pacito
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janebowles
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Pacito said:
In any case the oisters, coquilles, calva nor the cider have blurred your view on the idex!
The possible set-back and the dates you mention for that could eventually get an FA-support from the results of the American pre-elections. The date for that is the 4th of November, isn't it?
Thanks for your update,
JaneB
The Dutch Clown
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Week 42.
If one strictly uses the findings of mister Elliott there should not be any form of discussion, it’s more the question what pattern you will be ending up within the future that should be the focus of attention. So if the actual situation provides a limited number of valid patterns you are in business. If you remember last weeks findings with three pattern options (all three pointed upwards by the way only differences in time and price) the last one was put into the chart and now seems to become valid. So for the Elliott bit I can simply refer to the lines of last week.
The Gann channel technique did give me quite a few challenges to capture and I therefore did not update them for a while. This is probably one of the area’s of which the Gann criticasters say that his findings are unclear and that there is a huge undefined bit left. If I however combine the Gann channels with the new favorite indicator insights and also include the trending techniques I must conclude that the lot is becoming a powerful combination. And in this stage specifically interesting is the fine-tuning of it but lets not forget that it is in fact fine-tuning although the applied tuning is a sort of crossing different techniques. The 409,56 Gann channel has been serving as guidance all the way through but seems to be abandoned – mind the divine conformation - last week by the AEX at the upper side. The 409,56 channel shows on the third of November 502,89 and a fine-tuned version shows November 9th at 526,78. Over the next couple of day’s there are a couple of decisions in order about either the longer existing channel or the fine-tuned version.
In everything you would currently do in analyzing markets it must be noted that both AEX and DJIA have the favorite indicator in the Overbought status so we are high rather than low which means according to the trading rule nr 1 sell but definitely not to buy. This said it must be noted that the trending status was and is positive so the LT and MT long positions are still kept accompanied by a trailing stop as showed last week. This said and noted it is obvious that ST long positions are still valid when they occur, mind the Range Rules and keep the period (S for short) in the focus of attention. In fact if you take a closer look at the intraday charts you can see a pattern of swings building up that allows short term profitable trading.
The main driving forces in the AEX and DJIA are existing Positive Reversal Signals that have 499,xx and 12101,xx targets so price wise they seem to be in sync. And since the all time record popular president George Bush is on his way to have his good friends remain in power we should be looking more for November timeframes rather than the earlier ones, but this of course has got nothing to do with Technical Analysis. If we apply a bit of reverse engineering we obtain some guidance of boundaries based upon the favorite indicator. The EOD chart will show Monday a RSI value of 80 when the AEX closes on 499,50; RSI value 70 at AEX close value 491,05 ; RSI value 60 at AEX close value 486,60. So the above found time and price targets are not at all impossible and combining the lot will provide you an excellent trading roadmap for the coming week.
Keep in mind to have fun.
If one strictly uses the findings of mister Elliott there should not be any form of discussion, it’s more the question what pattern you will be ending up within the future that should be the focus of attention. So if the actual situation provides a limited number of valid patterns you are in business. If you remember last weeks findings with three pattern options (all three pointed upwards by the way only differences in time and price) the last one was put into the chart and now seems to become valid. So for the Elliott bit I can simply refer to the lines of last week.
The Gann channel technique did give me quite a few challenges to capture and I therefore did not update them for a while. This is probably one of the area’s of which the Gann criticasters say that his findings are unclear and that there is a huge undefined bit left. If I however combine the Gann channels with the new favorite indicator insights and also include the trending techniques I must conclude that the lot is becoming a powerful combination. And in this stage specifically interesting is the fine-tuning of it but lets not forget that it is in fact fine-tuning although the applied tuning is a sort of crossing different techniques. The 409,56 Gann channel has been serving as guidance all the way through but seems to be abandoned – mind the divine conformation - last week by the AEX at the upper side. The 409,56 channel shows on the third of November 502,89 and a fine-tuned version shows November 9th at 526,78. Over the next couple of day’s there are a couple of decisions in order about either the longer existing channel or the fine-tuned version.
In everything you would currently do in analyzing markets it must be noted that both AEX and DJIA have the favorite indicator in the Overbought status so we are high rather than low which means according to the trading rule nr 1 sell but definitely not to buy. This said it must be noted that the trending status was and is positive so the LT and MT long positions are still kept accompanied by a trailing stop as showed last week. This said and noted it is obvious that ST long positions are still valid when they occur, mind the Range Rules and keep the period (S for short) in the focus of attention. In fact if you take a closer look at the intraday charts you can see a pattern of swings building up that allows short term profitable trading.
The main driving forces in the AEX and DJIA are existing Positive Reversal Signals that have 499,xx and 12101,xx targets so price wise they seem to be in sync. And since the all time record popular president George Bush is on his way to have his good friends remain in power we should be looking more for November timeframes rather than the earlier ones, but this of course has got nothing to do with Technical Analysis. If we apply a bit of reverse engineering we obtain some guidance of boundaries based upon the favorite indicator. The EOD chart will show Monday a RSI value of 80 when the AEX closes on 499,50; RSI value 70 at AEX close value 491,05 ; RSI value 60 at AEX close value 486,60. So the above found time and price targets are not at all impossible and combining the lot will provide you an excellent trading roadmap for the coming week.
Keep in mind to have fun.
The Dutch Clown
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